Texas at BYU Prediction

Currently, Vegas has Texas as only 7-point favorites.  I heard several ESPN Commentators mention today and during the BC-Wake Forest game talking about BYU's defense being a real test, and potentially a wake-up call for Texas.  So BYU fans are not alone in thinking BYU can stay in this contest.

BYU, defensively, can make it hard for Texas.  There is no doubt about that in my mind.  Until the flood gates opened the last 32 minutes of the game last week, Texas could not sustain drives at all.  After that first big play TD, NMSU couldn't hold the Horns to plays of less than 50 yards.  If BYU can force Texas to drive down the field on them, it'll be a long night for them offensively.  Especially at altitude.  Except for the redshirt seniors (who actually played as freshmen), no one on the roster has played a collegiate game over 1,000 feet above sea level.

However, on the flip side, BYU didn't do much offensively at Virginia.  Conditions were different, obviously, but BYU could not get back-to-back first downs for basically the entire game.  They had a drive here and a drive there, but that was it: here once and there once and never again.  New Mexico State had some success against Texas throwing the football.  They broke 100 yards rushing, but averaged just 2.7 yards/carry (with only 1 sack, meaning that 2.7 was 37 times trying to run the ball).

Texas, while squelching the run, didn't get to the QB last week.  BYU has a nimble QB and, while the OL has been underperforming for too many years ow, a better line than the NMSU Aggies.  A first year starting QB completed 70% of his passes against the Longhorns.  BYU's WRs should be better, even if Andrew McDonald is a better QB at this point in time than Taysom Hill.  Hill, after completing a paltry 32% last week in a monsoon, should see that creep up north of 60%.  If not, BYU is in trouble.  Jamaal Williams can run the football, but if there is no threat of a passing attack, Texas can key in on him and man-up in the passing game.

To win, BYU needs to eliminate big offensive plays by the Longhorns.  They need to average at least 3.5/carry and run the ball 30-40 times.  They need to complete 60% of their passes and average over 6 yards/attempt and over 10 yards/completion.  They need to possess the ball at least 28 minutes.  They can't get caught running 90+ plays in 26 minutes.  If they can get the Texas offense impatient (which they won't do with 6 play 75 second drives), it might lead to opportunities for turnovers.  There is no reason they couldn't do any of those things.  Doing all of them, on the other hand, might prove difficult.

Texas has some studs at WR.  They have coaches that know when to push pace and when to slow it down (though I think they have a tendency to overthrow, which may be especially tempting given BYU's concerns in the secondary).  BYU probably won't be able to contain big plays for 4 quarters.  So they'll need to generate a few of their own.  If Hoffman plays, if Van Noy gets in the zone, if Taysom's legs get rolling, then there is potential for some fireworks.

So yes, BYU could win the game.  However, I marked this one down as an L as soon as spring practice was over.  My statistical model (which admittedly has a slobbering love affair with the Longhorns) initially liked Texas by 13, but now it's down to 9 points.  I think there will be some offense in this game for both teams.  Texas is vulnerable on D and BYU should be able to get a couple of plays down the field.  But I think Texas brings too much firepower and BYU's red zone O is unproven (and I think will be proven ineffective against Texas' front 7).  It wouldn't surprise me to see BYU in it, possibly even leading in the 3rd Q.  But ultimately Texas wins a game where the final score is not indicative of the game: Texas 34, BYU 23.

That's my thoughts, how about you?  #TEXvsBYU #BYUFootball