Tuesday Tidbits (Late for 9/3/2013): BYU vs. BCS Opponents

Over the last 5 seasons, plus 1 game this season, BYU has played 19 games against teams in BCS conferences.  Much to BYU fans' surprise, BYU, in spite of many challenges, has a 9-10 record in those games (most of them think it's worse!  Die-hards can't believe it's that bad).  The more surprising facts come when looking deeper at the numbers.

First off, remove those 19 games and Bronco Mendenhall has won over 80% of his games, including those games that percentage drops to 70.7%.  BYU has rushed for over 100 yards 8 times in those 19 games.  3 times BYU was held to under 50 yards rushing.  BYU has passed for 250 yards 9 times, 5 of those were Max Hall.  5 times BYU was held to under 200 yards passing.  BYU has scored 28 points or more 8 times.  5 times BYU was held to 14 points or less.

In those 19 games, BYU averaged 116 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 25.2 points/game.  In all games over the course of that same period, BYU averaged 152 yards rushing, 256 yards passing, and 30.9 points/game.  In games against non-BCS opponents in the same period, BYU averaged 171 yards rushing, 262 yards passing, and 34.0 points/game.

If someone wanted to quantify BYU's struggles against BCS conference opponents (which I do), this will do it.  BYU averages 55 fewer rushing yards, 6 fewer passing yards, and 8.8 fewer points/game.  Another key stat that perhaps I will research prior to Utah, appropriately, is how BYU does in the turnover margin against BCS conference opponents.

Anyway, everyone can agree that BCS opponents are more difficult in general, but here is exactly how much more difficult BYU has found them since 2008.  It is amazing how big of a difference 61 yards of offense/game makes.

I did some other number crunching to try to get a rough estimate of what BYU needs to accomplish to beat BCS conference opponents.  By my calculations BYU needs 135 rushing yards, 250 passing yards, and at least 29 points to win.  Additionally, home-field advantage has had some, but minimal, bearing on the outcome of games against BCS conference opponents: BYU is 3-2 at home (60%), 4-6 on the road (40%), and 2-2 at neutral sites (50%).