Notre Dame at Michigan Prediction

I've been known to be a bit down on Michigan heading into this season, and with good reason.  They don't have a ton of experience in their depth chart, they're relying on a ton of freshmen to have immediate impacts, they have an above average QB (that hasn't faced anything similar to ND's D), and their schedule is pretty difficult.  I can see them winning 8 games, but perhaps only 7, or even 6.  But I don't see them contending for a Big Ten title this season.  They'll be eliminated one or two losses before getting beat by Ohio State.

Now enter Notre Dame to a prime time game.  The environment won't stress Notre Dame.  If anything, the late start might have an impact on them more than anything.  Rees has grown up a lot the past two seasons.  He found some playmakers last week and looks equally confident in throwing the ball to 4 or 5 different guys.  The OL was very assignment sound last week against Temple, which cannot be overlooked in its importance.  Physicality is one thing with an OL, which ND has, but if they aren't blocking the right guys, it doesn't matter.  They should hold their own against the Wolverines front line.  They blocked against better LBs all summer.  Honestly, the Michigan D should not bother Notre Dame too much.  The Irish can sustain drives and put pressure on Michigan's O to do the same.

However, they may have to put up points.  Devin Gardner had a "nice" game against overmatched Central Michigan.  But everybody on the offense did.  How will Gardner handle the kind of stress the ND front 7 can bring?  Connor Reilly, who will be a pretty decent QB for Temple, had a tough time getting things going and ended up completing just 50% of his passes.  That will not do.  It's got to start with the running game for Michigan.  They have the horses to get a nice rhythm going in the ground game, they just can't afford to turn the ball over.

As a Michigan fan I would worry about turning the ball over.  Gardner has been known to make poor decisions and got away with quite a few bad throws/decisions last season (in the few games I saw, there were at least 5 or 6, even while throwing 5 picks in 126 attempts, which is maybe slightly above average).  Notre Dame does a great job of making you pay for your mistakes.  This isn't Central Michigan or Northwestern.  You cannot mess up and get away with it.

Notre Dame beat Michigan (in one of the ugliest games I've ever attended) last season.  Two years ago, the game had the wild finish with Michigan emerging victorious in the most improbable of manners (that I missed as I was driving from Austin to San Antonio after one of the other ugliest games I've ever attended, BYU at Texas).  I can't to see what the 2013 version has in store.  If I were a betting man, I'd see that line at -4 to Michigan and I'd take Notre Dame on the money line, just to squeeze some extra juice into my winnings.  Notre Dame 27, Michigan 17.