Wednesday, September 11, 2013

BYU's 2013 Opponents in Week Three

Virginia
After getting drubbed by Oregon last weekend to drop to 1-1, Virginia gets a week off to prepare for an FCS school in week 4.

Texas
The Longhorns are looking to rebound with a new DC against a rising Ole Miss team.  I had Ole Miss as a preseason top 10 team.  Of course, I had Texas there as well...I still believe Texas has a lot in the tank for the season, if they can avoid tearing apart at the seams.  I think Ole Miss is still a bit out of their league playing such a road game: there's still a lot of young players on the squad and winning at Vandy isn't the same as winning at Texas.  The SEC has shown a vulnerability to good offenses so far this young season (something I've been saying for a long time: there just aren't but one or two good offenses in their league so their defenses look amazing).  Texas isn't necessarily good but they have explosiveness.

Utah
The Utes start their gauntlet run that determines just what kind of season they are going to have.  After finding a way to beat Utah State, they had a glorified scrimmage against a bad Weber State team (even by Weber's low standards).  They host Oregon State to open Pac 12 play.  In the preseason, my model had this game as a toss-up.  As a result of Utah's win over Utah State and Oregon State's loss to Eastern Washington, this has moved up to a 7-point win for the Utes (Utes have moved from 49 to 35, Oregon State from 16 to 46).  Dennis Erickson has been a much better offensive coordinator than the Utes have ever had.  So far at least.  He'll be challenged in two very different ways the next two games.  Oregon State will apply pressure by scoring a lot of points.  BYU will apply it by playing solid defense.

Middle Tennessee
I thought the Blue Raiders showed well at North Carolina, in spite of the loss.  They host Memphis this weekend.  They should win easy.

Utah State
Chuckie had a great day against Air Force, but this was meant to be a down year for the Falcons.  They get Weber, who will not lose by 63 to the Aggies.  43, perhaps...

Georgia Tech
The Bumblebees play at Duke this weekend in their second game of the year (first real game).  This is Duke's third game (but first real game).  If Duke is to make a bowl game this year, they probably need to at least show well in this game, and probably need to win it.  The Bees should win by double digits...

Houston
After a big win over Temple on the road in conference play, the Red Cougars take a breather this weekend.  Next up, they play at Rice, which should actually be an amazing game...

Boise State
The Broncos get a Friday night opportunity to embarrass Air Force.  Both teams were involved in blowouts last weekend, though on opposing ends.  I suspect the same will happen here.  I wish I had better vibes for Air Force this season, but by all accounts, it's just one of those years where they don't have the horses.

Wisconsin
We know absolutely nothing about Wisconsin after their 2-0 start.  Now we find out something: they play at Arizona State.  My model has Badgers #27 and Sun Devils #34, with a 1-point edge to the home team.  I expect a somewhat higher-scoring affair.

Notre Dame
Time to see how the Irish respond after losing a regular season game.  It's a solid, but not spectacular offense paired with a spectacular front 7 and average DBs.  Last week, Michigan was able to exploit them.  This week, Purdue will not do the same.  Model says ND by 3 TDs.

Nevada
The Wolfpack are actually the biggest dog I have in terms of BYU's opponents as they play at Florida State and my model says they lose by 40 points...will it really be that bad?  We shall see.  But it wouldn't surprise me...

Overall
My model says 7-2 for BYU's opponents this week, with a loss by Wisconsin at Arizona State and by Nevada at Florida State.  That's 21-9 on the season (if my predictions are correct) for BYU's opponents this season, which is great at this point!

1 comment:

  1. Thanks, Mo.

    Interesting thing I hadn't thought of that's a side effect of BYU's independent schedule - because all the teams don't have most of their games against each other (where total W = total L), BYU's opponents have the potential to have a very good (or very bad) winning percentage.

    ReplyDelete