SDSU-BYU

This will probably be the toughest test for the Cougars until round 2 of the conference tournament, or the championship game with a first round upset.  I know New Mexico will be a huge test, but as stated previously, I think BYU will have a tougher time this game, i.e. it's a bigger test.  Based on the game played earlier this season at SDSU, it would seem that BYU should pull this one out easily: on the road they shot better and were essentially even on rebounding, and SDSU shot 20% higher on free throws than usual.  One would expect BYU to shoot and rebound better at home and SDSU to make a lower percentage of free throws on the road.  That would mark a landslide victory for the Cougars, considering they had a 5-point lead on the road with 2 seconds left.  They should win by 15.  They could win by 15.  They probably won't win by 15.

SDSU absolutely needs this game.  They are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and a win here could push them to the right side of the bubble (last year, they got swept by BYU in-season and it pushed them to the wrong side of it: expect a similar outcome with similar results here).  They will go all-out in this game.  The motivation they will have is greater than what BYU will have trying to maintain a lead on top of the conference and secure a higher NCAA tournament seed.  That can be huge!

2 major differences I see from last time out to this time out:

1) The refs let SDSU and BYU play last time.  It was an extremely physical game but with only 23 fouls called.  It got very chippy down the stretch and I'm sure the officials won't want the same thing, especially given the fact that SDSU is playing for its tournament life.  One might think having more fouls called gives BYU, obviously the better free throw shooting team, the advantage.  However, foul trouble is more of an issue for BYU, particularly if Chris Miles, Noah Hartsock, or Jonathan Tavernari get in foul trouble.  Because of SDSU's athleticism on the front line (particularly Malcolm Thomas and Billy White), seeing Hartsock and Tavernari on the floor together is going to be a necessity.  If either is in foul trouble, BYU is in trouble.  SDSU also brings in the big bruiser Cartwell, and Miles will have to able to play to neutralize his size, if he is sitting on the bench with fouls, James Anderson and Brandon Davies will not be able to rebound, or prevent Cartwell from getting to the glass.  I think foul trouble would prove to be a bigger disadvantage for BYU than free throw shooting would be an advantage for BYU.

2) Jimmer was playing extremely well the last time these two teams played.  Everybody else for BYU was not.  Now, JT and Emery are heating up again, Miles has played well offensively of late, and Abouo has been practicing better shot selection.  Haws had 22 last game (but those were mostly layups and free throws and he won't be able to find the lanes and get open in transition against SDSU like he did against Wyoming).  Hartsock has been a little off of late, offensively.  Davies hasn't been himself since before the previous SDSU game.  Other people have been stepping up, and they will have to in order to survive tonight.  Anything they can get from Loyd, Hartsock, Davies, and Miles, at this point, is gravy.  But they need 4 other guys to be scoring against SDSU.

I think both teams are great defensive teams, though totally contrasting styles: SDSU is an aggressive, in your face, apply pressure constantly type of defense; BYU is a fundamentally sound, low pressure, stay between their man and the basket, contest everything type of defense.  BYU is a better offensive team, but what SDSU lacks in shooting ability, they make up for in offensive rebounding.

Barring a Jimmer-Fredette-like individual effort from DJ Gay, Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, or Malcolm Thomas, I think SDSU loses a tight one.  If one of those 4 scores 30, SDSU wins a tight one.  Barring a spectacular (or spectacularly poor) effort from Fredette, JT, or Haws, BYU wins a tight one.  If one of those 3 goes for 30, BYU blows them out.  If they all go for under 20, BYU loses a tight one.  Did I hedge that one enough?  If both teams play well, BYU wins.  If both teams play great, BYU wins.  If both teams play crappy, BYU wins.  If BYU plays poorly, SDSU wins.  If SDSU plays amazing, SDSU wins.  Now I have surely hedged those picks more than enough...BYU is the better team, SDSU must outplay them to win, which is certainly a possibility.

One of SDSU's big 4 scorers will go off, but BYU will counter by one of their scorers doing the same, and it will come down to the play of DJ Gay vs. Jimmer Fredette down the stretch.  At home, shooting free throws, Jimmer should win that battle 99 times out of 100.  BYU 75, SDSU 70.