TCU over Air Force: 58-50. These are two teams that will in all likelihood remain in the bottom third of the league. There isn't much depth, maybe even less talent, and teams that can lose at home as easily as on the road.
CSU over Wyoming: 70-60. Two very contrasting styles: CSU likes to slow the pace down, walk it up the court, grind it out in the halfcourt; Wyoming likes to run, forces you to run by pressing, and takes shots early in the shot clock. It will be interesting to see which one actually plays out: I do anticipate CSU to win, b/c they are playing better basketball right now. The win at the Huntsman Center this week should give them confidence going into this game. They won at Wyoming the first time through conference play.
New Mexico over SDSU: 76-62. There probably isn't a hotter team in the league right now that New Mexico. They had a bye on Wednesday to allow them to get rested, healthy, and prepared for this showdown in Albuquerque. The Pit should be rocking again. SDSU just hasn't found itself yet, in my opinion. They are playing well as individuals, but they just seem to be missing that team chemistry. On the road, in this league, you cannot have that and expect to win: that's why they lost at Wyoming.
UNLV over BYU: 73-68. Before this week's game, I thought BYU would pull this one out. After watching BYU play well, but not phenomenal, against TCU (with similar performances the previous two weeks), and watching UNLV clicking on all cylinders against Wyoming, I have to give the edge to UNLV. I certainly am a lot more confident BYU can win THIS game against UNLV than any game against the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack in a long time. They will need several guys to play big for this game, particularly Hartsock and Tavernari to establish an inside presence, but Emery's 3-point shooting and Haws ability to get to the basket and shoot the mid-range jumper can take some of the pressure off of Jimmer. They will need that. If they can build an early lead, they win the game. If they get behind in the game and UNLV gets behind the crowd, it's going to be an uphill battle. With all that said, this is going to be a GREAT game.
My thoughts on the second half of conference play:
BYU will lose a maximum of 3 conference games.
UNLV and New Mexico will lose a minimum of 3 conference games.
Prediction: BYU wins the conference championship, maybe in a tie, maybe outright, but they will win it.
UNLV SHOULD finish ahead of New Mexico. UNLV gets two of the big three at home, New Mexico gets two of them on the road. The standings after this weekend will very likely be the standings at the end of the season.
Final Order:
BYU-I don't see how they lose more than 2 down the stretch, which should be enough for a conference championship: tournament-bound
UNLV-they survived a game in the Pit, no reason to think they won't beat UNM in the standings either: tournament-bound
New Mexico-they are prone to struggle on the road and travel to UNLV and BYU: tournament-bound
SDSU-tough games at New Mexico and at BYU, already two games out of first which is insurmountable given their road schedule: NIT-bound
CSU-on a roll, and coming to an easy stretch their schedule: might have a shot for the NIT, more likely to be a CIT team
Utah-should be able to take the bye this weekend and regroup, if not, they may fall behind TCU: no post-season
TCU-just haven't shown much this year for the veteran group they are: no post-season
Air Force-they have been competitive in a lot more games this year than they were last year, maybe that'll be enough to finish ahead of Wyoming: either way, they are playing in the play-in game of the conference tournament: no post-season
Wyoming-they lost to Air Force, they haven't won a road game yet and they play at SDSU, at New Mexico, and at UNLV in the back half of the schedule: no post-season
The only deviation in the second half that I see is Air Force surrounding the wagons and Wyoming falling off of the wagon. Conference tournament has no upsets in the first round. Second round will have 2 great games: BYU-SDSU and UNM-UNLV. Championship game pits New Mexico against BYU, with Jimmer winning or losing the championship game in the final minute. I say win it: they get a 3-seed in the NCAAs. Lose it: 5-seed. Take those ultra long-term predictions for what they are worth.
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