Pac 10 Expansion

Well, the annual Pac 10 expansion conversation is upon us.  This time the Pac 10 went the other way in discussion, however: "we will look into expansion."  I will make the case for the possible players (the top 3 are in the order I consider the likelihood of the schools joining the Pac 10-after the top 3, it gets amazingly less likely so it's tough to rank):

Utah:
Pros: Good academics, but not great.  Medical facilities are on par with USC and exceed Arizona (5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program).  Pretty good law and engineering graduate programs.  2 BCS wins, more than the entire Pac 10 combined, minus USC.  They sport a winning record against the Pac 10 under Kyle Whittingham.  Several recent trips to the NCAA tournament as an at-large (huge because the Pac 10 likely won't have any at-large teams this year!), and have advanced to the Sweet 16 twice in this decade.  Solid Women's Gymnastics, Soccer, and Volleyball programs.  Salt Lake is a decent-size TV market, though the Utes are about the 3rd biggest draw for sports in the market behind the Jazz and the Cougars.
Cons: Business school stinks with job placement around 50%.  Hoops are so up and down, and since Majerus left they have not been a national force, though they have had years at the top of the Mountain West.  Several 3rd and 4th place finishes in the MWC the past 5 years in football (and some even lower in hoops).  It would seem they are probably a package deal: you take them you might have to take BYU.  Stadium is small, though several Pac 10 schools have a smaller stadium.

Colorado:
Pros: Pretty stinking good academics.  They have a rich tradition in football, with a Heisman trophy winner, National Championship, etc.  Good stadium size, solid attendance, and a decent TV draw in Denver (like Utah, however, they are not at the top of the list by any means).  CU may want to leave the Big 12 and start afresh with a fertile California recruiting ground (I don't think you can overstate how big of a plus it is that they are in the Big 12: if you can get a BCS team to defect, that beats taking a non-BCS team and trying to get them up to a BCS level).
Cons: Pretty stinking athletics.  Past tradition has not translated into current excellence.  Colorado did not get a single recruit that was rated one of Colorado's top 10 high school players.  They don't open up a good recruiting base for the Pac 10, they merely expand their presence to east of the Rockies (barely).

BYU:
Pros: decent academics.  Their business and law graduate programs are well-respected.  They need help in engineering, but it is a well-financed program.  Athletics are well-established.  They have great Olympic sports, decent golf, baseball, and women's sports.  Football would be a boost to the current Pac 10.  Basketball would be a boost to the current Pac 10.  Stadiums are large and they fill them.  Attendance ranks among the highest in the west: factor in playing conference games against Pac 10 opponents instead of MWC opponents and they would rank the highest in basketball in the west.  National fan-base.  Salt Lake market.
Cons: not a research-oriented university.  There are some "censorship" issues that some Pac 10 schools wouldn't like.  The conservative values and unwillingness to compromise on those that may cause some issues to Pac 10 presidents.  Basically, their Mormon-ness makes them a bad cultural fit with Cal-Berkeley, Oregon, etc.  No medical school (not really an issue: 5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program and 1 has a crappy medical program: Arizona).  Some Pac 10 sports occasionally play on Sundays (baseball and some Olympic sports, with an occasional basketball game) and BYU does not ever play on Sundays.  The inability to win big games in sports might be a down-side: no NCAA tourney wins in 17 years and an abysmal record against ranked opponents in football over the past decade.

TCU:
Pros: Texas team.  Texas recruits.  Texas exposure.  Did I mention TCU plays home games in Fort Worth, which is in Texas?  Very wealthy institution, with good academics, and a stellar football program.  The other sports lag behind somewhat, but if they give the Pac 10 an "in" in Texas, that could/would be overlooked.
Cons: Poor sports besides football and women's basketball.  Small following.  Not amazingly prestigious in anything.

Texas Tech:
Pros: see the pros of TCU and being in Texas.  Add to that the fact that Texas Tech is a Big 12 school, and that would be an amazing coupe.  If I were Tech, I'd certainly want to exit the Big 12 South!  Decent academics, but not spectacular.
Cons: nothing real spectacular about them.  They are in the middle of nowhere in Texas.  So you have to travel all the way to Texas and then drive 4 hours into the Texas desert...I don't care if you live in Pullman, Washington, that sounds more like the start of a horror film than a conference road game...

New Mexico:
Pros: well, they are only considered if TCU or Texas Tech are picked and need a "rival" in conference.  They are a good academic school.  Sports are OK.  Basketball is more than OK.  If they come as a package with TCU, the Pac 10 would extend unimpeded from the Pacific Ocean to Dallas.
Cons: they don't stand individually.  No major revenue, market, recruiting base, etc.  Like I said: they aren't bad in a package deal with a Texas school.

CSU:
See New Mexico, except change TCU to CU.  They would be a good package deal with the Buffaloes.  Solid academics mixed with below-solid athletics: a lot of similarities to the current state of the Washington-Washington State package.

San Diego State:
Pros: San Diego is a big market and a beautiful place to play a conference road game in January.
Cons: nobody cares about SDSU in San Diego.  The Pac 10 recruiting already dominates San Diego.  The other-non-California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school.  The California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school to compete against in recruiting.  Academics are poor.  Fan are religious bigots.

UNLV, Nevada, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force are probably all no's.  For BYU fans, the expansion may result in BYU joining a BCS conference, but might not be the Pac 10.  Like I said, they are probably third on the list (maybe even lower).  Mizzou to the Big 10, CU to the Pac 10, and suddenly BYU becomes a good option for the Big 12...

I think a lot of schools have a plus or two, but all of them come with more than a minus or two.  I believe that is the reason that the Pac 10 has not expanded already: they can't find two teams that they want to add, that want to join, that all 10 schools would approve of.  BYU-Utah is the obvious combination, but they aren't exactly perfect fits.  Unless they are absolutely forced into expanding, I'm not sure they will.  If they do, I'm not sure they will make the right decision on whom to pick anyway.  It should be exciting to see how the next 12 months play out with Big Ten, Pac 10 expansion, and how the dominoes fall with the Big 12 and MWC (and possibly the Big East).