I'm not saying there won't be any upsets tomorrow in some of the other games (in fact, quite the opposite if you keep reading), but the big game of the weekend is UNLV at SDSU. New Mexico did BYU a favor by whooping up on UNLV. UNLV might lose one more time this season, but that would be all. The Lobos UNLV-against-BYU-esque performance essentially gives the winner of the New Mexico-BYU game at least a share of the conference championship. Thanks, Lobos, for giving the Cougars control of their own destiny again.
TCU-Wyoming: two teams heading in the wrong direction. Since their last meeting, the teams have combined for a 3-13 record. With a loss, Wyoming will essentially clinch a spot in the play-in game in the conference tourney. However, I'm not sure TCU keeps up with Wyoming's pace, particularly in Laramie at 7,200 feet. Wyoming 76, TCU 64.
New Mexico-Utah: New Mexico comes in as one of the hottest teams in the country. Utah comes in having lost 3 of 4. Their season is all but done. New Mexico is trying to play its way to a possible 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament (if they won out, they would be in the mix: I don't think they'll get there though-at BYU, and having to beat two quality teams in the MWC tourney in Vegas, with one of those two likely being Vegas). The last meeting was a 17-point beatdown in the Pit. New Mexico hasn't scored less than 70 since the beginning of January. Utah hasn't scored more than 70 in nearly a month, and that was against the 9th place team in the MWC. Utah has no chance. For whatever reason, though, these are the games they somehow seem to win: which just makes you wonder how different their season would be if they had a good coach. Utah 71, New Mexico 65. The enigma that is Utah basketball continues.
UNLV-San Diego State: UNLV came back down to earth Wednesday against New Mexico after the amazing shooting game they had against BYU last Saturday. That's what happens: stats and averages really don't lie, if you aren't a good shooting team you'll have a bad game after having a good game. SDSU is also playing really well right now. They nearly pulled off a shocker at the Pit last weekend, losing by 2 in OT. They dominated Air Force, Wyoming, and CSU (not the best of competition, but winning 3 conference games by an average of nearly 20 is tough no matter what). This one should be a barn-burner (it's on Versus at 1pm Pacific, 2 Mountain, 4 Eastern: check this game out, it will be a physical game with a lot of athletic moves and plays). UNLV has a history of playing big in road games against the Big Three, and this definitely qualifies. They also have a history of losing at least 4 MWC games. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them win this game and follow it up with a loss at Utah. Again, they have a history of playing big in these types of road games. If they get running early, they'll run away with it, maybe a 10-12 point win. I think they start quicker than SDSU, but won't establish enough of a lead to pull it out. SDSU 74, UNLV 69. UNLV won't lose again this season: too many home games, too many weak opponents. Their stay in the top 25 wasn't very long!
Air Force-BYU: Lamont Morgan is out, for how long, no one has said. This will be a good opportunity for Michael Loyd to get some minutes. The bye came at a good time for BYU as well: Haws needed a rest (that darn freshman wall), Jackson Emery needed to ponder his shot selection, Tavernari needed to establish himself again as one of the greatest 6th men in America, and Jimmer needed to take a step back and refocus for the home stretch. Davies should be back next week. I think they can build some momentum starting this game, then with road games at CSU and Wyoming next week. Air Force is just plain terrible. Air Force's lone MWC win was a home game against 8th place Wyoming, by seven. They have had some reasonably close games against the bottom half of the conference but have been consistently blown out by the top half, especially on the road. They do a decent job of forcing people into slow starts and making them adjust to their style of play. However, I think BYU comes out gunning and never looks back: the second half of the last game, they had the Falcons figured out. Air Force will be the team unable to adjust, as BYU's style of play dominates this game. They won't even know what hit them. BYU 75, Air Force 48.
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