This is the second toughest stretch of games for BYU's season (the toughest one was at SDSU and at New Mexico). As far as BYU's chances this week, I really believe they will beat New Mexico. I think it might be a blowout win with big contributions (double-digit scoring) from 3 or 4 players. New Mexico, in the midst of a 10-game win streak, has struggled to pick up wins against teams they should have beaten soundly, most notably Air Force at home this past weekend. Tonight's game at CSU might not be a cakewalk either. The point is: they've been living on the edge and BYU, at home, is the most likely team to knock them off. In addition to that, history is definitely not on their side.
Given the two opponents BYU has this week, New Mexico has struggled much more in the Marriott Center than San Diego State has. New Mexico's last win at the MC came on 2/17/2000. The past two years under Alford (and this year), New Mexico has had a better team than SDSU (finished higher in the conference standings), but has had a much tougher time on the road against BYU. SDSU is 1-2 at home against BYU. New Mexico is 3-0. On the road, however, SDSU has played BYU much tougher than New Mexico, losing by 7 and 3. New Mexico lost those same years by 11 and 17. SDSU has won in the Marriott Center as recently as 2005. Both games will certainly be big tests for BYU, but I think the likelihood of losing is greater for the SDSU game on Wednesday than the New Mexico game on Saturday.
New Mexico beats CSU, 68-63. CSU bounces back after the beatdown by UNLV. Air Force's near upset gives CSU some hope, but not enough.
Utah wins at Air Force, 57-51. Air Force is coming off a "moral" victory. Utah tends to play to the level of their competition. I think it will be a struggle for Utah to "get up" for this game, and it will show in the tightness of the game.
UNLV routs TCU, 81-60. UNLV made a statement last game against CSU. I think they add an exclamation point to that statement. It's too little, too late as far as the conference championship is concerned, but they can still secure a good seed in the NCAA tournament with a strong finish (their final 3 are against the bottom third of the league). They will be on a roll by conference tourney time.
BYU-SDSU preview to come later.
Both games for BYU are sold out, so that should help immensely. I agree that the SDSU game is a tougher win than the New Mexico game. But the more crucial game is New Mexico.
ReplyDeleteWhat is it about BYU that makes teams like SDSU, UNM, and UNLV play out of their minds when they play BYU, and then almost lose to Air Force and CSU....Wyoming, Utah. I don't get it. Do people hate us that much?
ReplyDeleteI don't think hatred inspires excellence. However, I think it does inspire game-planning and preparedness. Look at Utah football with McBride in the 90's and now what Whit has done: they have a defense set up to stop BYU's offense (tight man coverage and lots of blitzing throws off the timing required for BYU's O and the lack of big play potential), and an offense set up to give BYU's defense fits (attacking the OLBs/DEs).
ReplyDeleteI think it comes down to teams being more prepared and focused to knock off a perennial conference champion. Other than the 90's in hoops and the early 00's in football, BYU has contended/won conference championships for 30 years in both sports.
But yes, they do hate BYU that much. I have heard independently from fans of CSU, New Mexico, Wyoming, SDSU, UNLV, Air Force, and (obviously) Utah fans that they hate BYU. I haven't ever met any TCU fans to know of their feelings, but I know UTEP fans, and they hate BYU too. It's only a matter of time before TCU joins the bandwagon.