Well, the first half of the conference season finishes up on Wednesday night with an 8pm game between UNLV and Wyoming. There weren't a whole lot of surprises so far. I think everybody expected the top 4 to be fairly close, followed by the next four who haven't distinguished themselves from each other yet, followed by Air Force. Anyway, I'll talk some more about the first half of the conference season once it is actually completed. For now, the weekday games for the MWC this first week of February.
Air Force (1-6) is fresh off its first MWC win in two years. Now they have to travel to the third most difficult location to win in the conference at SDSU (4-3). It doesn't help that SDSU absolutely cannot afford to play anything resembling a close game. Too bad Air Force can't start a winning streak. I fully expect the Aztecs to take care of business. As usual against Air Force, there is a feeling out process, but after 10 minutes or so I think they will lock down defensively and use their size and speed advantage. SDSU 70, Air Force 55.
Colorado State (3-4) heads to Salt Lake to battle the Utes (3-4) for 5th place. Utah will be without its best offensive player, Marshall Henderson, for the game for his mandatory one-game suspension. I wonder how the Utes will respond after falling below .500 for the first time this late in the season since Giacoletti's last season back 4 years ago. I know how Jay Watkins is going to respond, but I wonder about the rest of this teammates. In the comeback bid against BYU, one can't help but wonder: where was Carlon Brown? Where was Luka Drca? Where was Kim Tillie? What happened to the upper classmen? It was all Watkins and Henderson. If they had to come back tonight and play just about anybody in the conference besides CSU, I think they'd lose. Luckily for them they are playing a team that is having more trouble scoring than Utah is. Utes take this in one of the lowest scoring MWC games not involving Air Force this season. Utah 64, CSU 57.
UNLV (5-2) travels to Laramie for the final game of "season 1" of MWC play. Laramie has been a tough place for a lot of teams this season. UNLV definitely needs the win to stay off the bubble, but more importantly, they need it to keep pace with New Mexico who has already finished their first 8 conference games at 6-2. Wyoming (2-5) has already played 2 of the top 4 at home and beat SDSU and lost a close one to New Mexico. This should be a game. UNLV is without Derrick Jasper, who in my mind has been a huge disappointment anyway this season. It hurts their depth, obviously. Normally in this case I would anticipate a good game, with UNLV pulling away late with their fresher bodies. Without Jasper, I think they'll need to build a sizeable lead early to pull this one out. UNLV gets the job done: 78-69. I think this effectively ends Wyoming's season. I don't see how they can get more than 2 or 3 more wins this year.
BYU (6-1) hosts TCU (2-5). The schedule couldn't have set up nicer for BYU. They get a Tuesday night home game before Saturday's showdown at UNLV while the Rebels have to travel to Laramie for the late game on Wednesday. That essentially gives BYU a 1.5 day edge on UNLV as far as rest and preparation are concerned. They also get a lighter opponent. There is no question that BYU wins the game, the question becomes what will we see from the Cougars? Will somebody else step up and score some points? Will the bench players show enough consistency to earn 10-15 minutes in this game? I don't blame Coach Rose: with what Morgan, Davies, and Loyd have done in those 3 games, they don't deserve playing time. I am curious why those three in particular are slumping so much right now? Maybe they aren't slumping, maybe they just look like amateurs compared to what Jimmer is doing right now. This game is more interesting b/c BYU needs to get a few things clicking before going to Vegas, and not so much because of the outcome of the game. I think BYU will get as many as 5 guys in double figures (I think Jimmer will probably barely get there this game). BYU 82, TCU 61. The Horned Frogs have been having a lot of trouble scoring lately, and a trip to the Marriott Center doesn't usually help that...
What do you all think? What thoughts do you have for how these games will play out? Also, who scores in double figures for BYU?
Can't argue with your reasoning on how the games play out, especially when I come to your blog to get all my information on the MWC. Cougars in double figures: Fredette, Haws, Tavernari (no surprises). The front court of Miles and Hartsock get double figures between them...maybe.
ReplyDeleteGood analysis and you were almost perfect on the BYU game with TCU. The game with UNLV is huge which we knew it would be. If we win, the conference is ours. If we lose we need to beat New Mexico and SDSU at home and the conference is ours. The MWC in basketball is similar to football, three really good teams, a pretty good team and then the rummies.
ReplyDelete