Tuesday Tidbits, 9/4/2012

Movement in the Polls
Many BYU fans were upset that BYU didn't jump into the polls after a dominating performance against Washington State.  First off, Washington State lost 7 games over the past two seasons by 20+ points.  So this isn't a big deal.  Secondly, BYU's offense attempted 4 FGs in the red zone and missed one.  It required a 4th down "trick" wildcat play with a 3rd string QB to score one of BYU's two red zone TDs.  BYU's defense was dominant, yes, but the O didn't exactly look like a top 25 unit.  And that was against what will statistically be one of the worst defenses in the country this season.

Balance
Here is a breakdown of BYU's play calls by down:
1st Down: 64.7% Rush/35.3% Pass
2nd Down: 29.6% Rush/70.4% Pass
3rd Down: 41.2% Rush/58.8% Pass

BYU was run-heavy on 1st down, pass-heavy on 2nd down.  They were more balanced on 3rd down.  Some might argue that it was situational and that would explain the run-heavy or pass-heavy (though it's always 1st and down unless a team is inside the 10 or gets a penalty).  Here is a breakdown by situation:

2nd and 7 or shorter: 40.0% Rush/60.0% Pass
2nd and 8 or longer: 16.7% Rush/83.3% Pass
3rd and 4 or shorter: 83.3% Rush/16.7% Pass
3rd and 5 or longer: 18.2% Rush/81.8% Pass
1st Down in Red Zone: 66.7% Rush/33.3% Pass
2nd Down in Red Zone: 50%
3rd Down in Red Zone: 50%

2nd down was still pass heavy, even when BYU gained 3 or more yards on 1st down (in "announcer speak" they were ahead of the chains).  BYU only converted one third down on a called running play to a RB.  BYU was 20% on 3rd and short when running the ball  The other 9 conversions were on passes, or called passing plays where Nelson scrambled for a first down.

What does that mean?  Well, first off, BYU is balanced but skewed.  They need to throw more on 1st down and pass more on 2nd down, if for no other reason, the O needs to keep teams guessing.  Second, BYU was unable, against an average-to-mediocre defensive front, to move the ball in crucial situations.  The slimmed-down OL that is supposed to be improved in its run-blocking was not against the Crimson Cougars.  If it could not gain yardage in critical situations against Washington State, how will it perform on the road, or against Utah's or Notre Dame's vastly superior front 7s?  Doman's got to pick it up on the calls, and the OL does too on the blocking side!

Balance, Part Two
BYU is typically known for throwing the ball all over the field.  John Beck routinely completed passes to 7-10 people during a typical game.  Riley was on the low end, but still, 7 BYU players caught passes, with only one of those being a RB.  I figure that number will increase in the coming games, as I know Doman wants to get the RBs involved.  Given that I questioned the depth of the WRs and TEs prior to the season, 7 was a good number to see in game one, especially with Skyler Ridley and Austin Holt getting involved.  I suspect that number will reach 10 this Saturday.

The other part of balance here: 7 different players on BYU had rushing attempts.  That only tends to happen against FCS opponents.  Perhaps there is more diversity to the running game than I have previously given credit for.  I don't imagine BYU will continuously hit 7 different players getting rushes.  I think 5 would be "balanced" enough going forward.

Thus concludes my random statistical analyses after Week One!  Anything you all are curious about but too lazy to research???  I'll be happy to "track" it next week!