Several teams jumped off this list with thuds this past weekend. Arkansas, Miami, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin all had losses too big, or to too bad of opponents, to overcome and play for a title.
Louisville is looking very capable of going 12-0 at this juncture as Cincinnati looks like the only other competitive team in the Big East. However, the very reason they have a shot at 12-0 is the very reason they won't get a seat at the big kid table. Tennessee still has no chance to go 12-0. Arizona and UCLA will still be lucky to win 9 games this season, even with their impressive Ws last night: my money is on 7 for Zona and 8 for UCLA. The Colorado and Utah games are looking that much easier for these two improved squads.
I was, as several of you know now, very unimpressed with Notre Dame. They got dominated up front by a Purdue DL that probably ranks 6th or 7th on their schedule. Without the ability to run the ball, a redshirt freshman QB (that they don't trust in the two-minute drill with the game on the line) can't be counted on to spring upsets at Michigan State, Oklahoma, or USC. It might make home games against Michigan, Stanford, and BYU difficult as well.
[On a side note: the gameday experience was incredibly fun. The pre-game experience certainly wasn't "The Grove" at Ole Miss or the everything at Texas, but it was amazing. It was vastly superior to anything in the state of Utah! As far as the actual stadium experience, well, it was reflective of the quality of the team. It's not the fans' fault there was nothing to cheer for!]
So here's that updated list, and note, a lot of these teams are playing road games this week (I suspect we'll be down at about 15 teams going into next week. See, the College Football season IS a playoff already, starting with 32 teams and eliminating about 20 teams the first month, 6 teams during the second month, and the final 4 during the third month and in conference title games):
Alabama (at Arkansas)
BYU (at Utah)
Clemson
Florida (at Tennessee)
Florida State
Georgia
Kansas State
LSU
Michigan State (Notre Dame)
Notre Dame (at Michigan State)
Oklahoma
Oregon
South Carolina
Stanford (hosting USC)
TCU (at Kansas)
Texas (at Ole Miss)
USC (at Stanford)
Virginia Tech (at Pitt, probably no need to mention it!)
West Virginia
The loser of Michigan State/Notre Dame will fall off the list. Stanford will fall off the list if it loses, but USC would still remain in the mix. Between the road games played by Alabama, BYU, Florida, TCU, and Texas, we'll probably see another one or two, maybe even three, teams fall off this week as well, getting upset in road contests. Everybody else is "safe" this week. Matt and I differed at the start of the season on three teams: none of those six combined "stretch" teams is still around. At this point, the biggest stretches on the list are BYU, Florida, and Notre Dame. I have several others that I don't think will end up winning 10 games, but until they lose, they have a chance!
When I saw that we were ranked 25, I thought it was totally unwarranted given our opening schedule. Then I looked at the teams below us and we might actually belong at #25. Here's hoping it lasts more than 1 week!
ReplyDeleteUtah's offense looked horrific against what should have been an overmatched Aggies D. It will come down to whether or not BJ can channel the "Ute juice" they always seem to squeeze out against BYU in down years and tough times to post a few more scores than warranted.
I see Utah jumping out early as vindication for their performance last week (not that they ever need any extra motivation against the Cougs). Their D will put them in an excellent position to win, though I hope it won't be as astonishing a performance as last year when we give them and they graciously accepted 7 turnovers.
If Wynn starts, all bets are off because even BYU can't make that dude look like an All-American. Hays is erratic, but mobile and BYU has always seemed to let those type of players keep it close with their legs and occasional completions (Locker 2010, Godfrey 2011). While I admit this is a much more sound and solid defensive unit, I'm not entirely sold on the fact that we can shut down a 1.5-dimensional QB (i.e. runs well, but throws like Engemann).
Utah wins due to a great defensive performance and a more solid special teams effort than they posted last week.
Have you changed your mind at all about the outcome for this one based on the last two weeks?
Haha...you wish I'd divulge my opinion about this game on Tuesday. Patience, brother, patience! I'll probably get there Thursday night or Friday morning. I will say, preseason I had BYU beating Weber 44-13 and CHANGED to 44-3. Final was 45-13, so, changing hasn't worked so well for me yet in 2012.
ReplyDeleteWynn retired on Monday, FYI, probably right after you left your comment!
I'm sure that was a simple cause and effect...When you've got the starting QB from the U reading your blog about BYU football you know you've made to the big time! Congrats, bro!
ReplyDelete