Tuesday Tidbits, 9/11/2012

Turnovers
A lot has been said about the BYU-Utah game and turnovers.  Rightfully so.  There's been a lot of stats thrown out by people a lot smarter than I, but here is how I view it as a fan: BYU freezes up when it plays Utah.  Generally speaking, Utah plays one of its better games of the season against BYU.  So there's a huge psychological barrier for BYU when it faces against the Utes.  On the flip side, there is something about playing BYU (lack of athleticism, maybe?), that brings out the best in the Utes.  Usually...
When BYU is clearly the better team, they turn it over infrequently but don't force turnovers, even against turnover-prone Ute offenses, and barely beat Utah (and usually in miraculous fashion on the last play of the game or in OT).  When Utah is clearly the better team, BYU turns it over at a ridiculous pace and Utah destroys BYU.  When it's about 50-50, BYU turns the ball over and Utah wins a close one.  Right now, it's not clear that BYU is the better team, but I'd say it's closer to a 60-40 game than it is to 50-50.

2011: In BYU's 12 other games, the Cougars had a +3 turnover margin.  Against Utah, they were -5.  BYU gets blown out.
2010: In BYU's 12 other games, the Cougars were +3.  Against Utah, they were -1.  BYU loses a close one.
2009: BYU was -1 the other 12 games.  Against Utah, they were +1.  They won the game.  Barely.
2008: BYU was +8 the other 12 games.  Against Utah, they were -6.  Blown out.
2007: BYU was -6 the other 12 games.  Against Utah, they were EVEN.  They won the game.  Barely.
2006: BYU was +14 the other 12 games.  Against Utah, they were EVEN.  They won the game.  Barely.
2005: BYU was +7 the other 11 games.  Against Utah, they were -1.  They lost the game.  Barely.

Now, Utah's 2008 D was something special.  Coached by Gary Andersen and Kyle Whittingham, led by several future NFL players, they were beastly.  Max Hall imploded, yes.  But Utah helped speed that along, and then capitalized on EVERY bad throw (of which there were many).  In the other seasons, however, Utah was, at best, the 3rd best D on BYU's schedule, yet the turnover margin was, almost without fail, worse than the rest of the season.  Psychological edge: Utah!

If tradition holds, BYU simply cannot lose the turnover battle and win the game.  When Utah wins the turnover battle, the Utes win the game.  With Kyle and Bronco, that is just how it is!  When the margin is even or BYU wins it, the Cougars win the game.  BYU is +2 on the season right now.  If they leave the game +2 or better, they'll be 3-0.

My biggest question heading in to the game: how does BYU respond after that first turnover?  Last year, Jake Heaps responded to a fumble by fumbling twice more on the same play...and, as if it were possible, it only went downhill from there!

Usually, I put several "stats" in the Tuesday Tidbits, but I've made my feelings pretty clear: that's the only one that matters this week.  Happy Rivalry Week...