Lame Week Three
As far as week threes go, this one is particularly weak on non-conference games. Notre Dame at Michigan State is really the only headliner, in terms of ranked, or historically decent, teams playing each other outside of intentional conference matchups. Florida plays at Tennessee, which will showcase a very rare thing these days: a sold-out Tennessee stadium. It's been 4 years since Tennessee was ranked. USC travels to Palo Alto to take on, and theoretically expose, Stanford. If not for Utah's loss last weekend, the Holy War might have taken on a bigger stage this weekend, especially with the garbage schedule. Then there is the Alabama at Arkansas game. That one promises to be interesting. Of all the "big" games this week, I think this one has the chance to be the closest. I don't think Arkansas will pull off the upset, but I also think 20 points is an absurd spread for a team playing on the road against a team that was in the top 10 just one week ago...
How Does BYU Attack Utah?
I think Utah's biggest weakness on D this year was bound to be it's back 7. They are playing a 3rd string SS this week. Most of the others in the back 7 had somewhat limited experience coming into the season. However, Utah's DL is superb, truly an elite unit. Given that a SS isn't supposed to be a D's strongest cover guy anyway, but more of an 8th man to stack in the box, the Utah run D should be more than adequate, if not downright disruptive for the Cougars. What will kill Utah this season is a precision passing attack. Unfortunately for the Cougars, Riley Nelson and the BYU pass-catching group isn't a prototypical run and gun, sling it all over the field type of offense. The Ute DBs can cover the type of offense that BYU brings to the table this season. It's more of a play-action, 5-step drop, intermediate type of attack, with a couple of WR bubble screens mixed in.
So, if the Ute DL owns the BYU OL in the running game, which is more than likely, and the BYU passing game isn't geared towards attacking the Ute DBs in a reliable manner, how will BYU attack Utah? Realistically, I think the Y's best/only chance to put up points on Utah is field position: the BYU D forcing turnovers, the return teams setting BYU up nicely, the coverage teams pinning Utah deep and forcing long fields for them.
How Does Utah Attack BYU?
Utah will not be able to continuously gimmick its way past this BYU team, like their flea-flicker against Utah State. They will have to fight and claw for every yard. Utah is not going to have a big-armed slinger at QB. It's either "game-manager" Jon Hays or "run-first" Travis Wilson, or both. Utah also had problems in pass protection last week. BYU has LBs that can beat any Ute lineman on a blitz. The 3-man front demands at least 4 guys to block them. That means Utah will need a TE or a RB to stay in to block, putting one less man in a route, or one fewer man to cover. I just don't see Utah managing consistent drives through the air.
This means Utah will have to bring their A game in the running game. But again, BYU's 3 DL demand at least 4 OL to block them. The 4 LBs are beasts and probably won't be blocked play-in and play-out with one OL either. John White is a good back, who had a great year behind a great OL last year. This year, he's got an average line and looks like an average back. Oh, and if the front 7 weren't enough of a problem, SS Daniel Sorensen has looked great so far this season in the run game.
If Utah can't throw and can't run against BYU, how will they score? Well, their big play potential is higher than BYU's. John White can break any run, with just a small hole. Travis Wilson has a few tricks up his sleeve. DeVonte Christopher, Jake Murphy, and Kenneth Scott can go after the jump ball with the best of them. They may not need to drive down the field if they can break two or three big plays, whether on a trick play or not. But that has realistically been Utah's traditional recipe for success against BYU in the Bronco-Whittingham era: big plays and strong D. I don't expect this year will be any different.
So, does BYU win the field position battle or does Utah win the big play battle?
Where Does Utah Go From Here?
After a loss at a rising, but only above average Utah State team by the Utes, what comes next? Well, unfortunately, a lot of tougher teams do. On any given day, that Utah State team could beat most of the teams on Utah's schedule, but I wouldn't say Utah State is better than most of the teams on Utah's schedule. Cal, yes. Washington State, yes. Colorado, yes. The list probably ends there (though who knows, maybe they're better than BYU, Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and Arizona: time will tell on those five). So, how does Utah survive? Well, for one, the game at Utah State was an in-state rivalry game, on the road, in Logan for the last time, so it's excusable to see the Little Brother rise up and beat them.
However, most of the teams on the Utes' schedule look even better than I thought they would be before the season started: BYU has shown more defensively and in the passing game than I thought they could; Arizona State just thumped Illinois, scoring 45 points in the process; USC has scored 6 and 7 TDs in their two games; UCLA just ran all over a Nebraska D just as good as Utah's; Oregon State just held Wisconsin's run game to essentially nothing; Arizona just beat a decent Oklahoma State coming off a BCS bowl win. Cal is struggling. Wazu isn't rebuilding as fast as ESPN hoped. Colorado, well, yeah, that should be a win, but it should have been a win last year too.
All of a sudden, what looked like a potential 9-win season, challenging USC for the Pac 12 South, is on the brink. If they don't beat BYU, they may not actually be good enough to make a bowl game against that schedule. As it lines up right now, Utah would be theoretical underdogs in 5 or 6 of their remaining 10 games, including this week's BYU game where they come in as an actual underdog. So, they'll need to pull off at least one "upset" to ensure themselves 6 wins. Obviously, betting lines are a fickle thing. If Utah had won in OT against Utah State, they'd be favorites against BYU and Arizona right now. But that doesn't change the fact that they have to beat BYU. I'm sure that is on their minds coming into this game. Coaches may not "look ahead" but players do. They know the stakes. They saw 3 of their road games get that much tougher last weekend. I think a desperate Utah is a dangerous thing, especially for BYU. BYU's been beat by far lesser Utah teams than this one!
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