Prediction: BYU at Utah, 9/15/2012

Where Does BYU Go From Here?
In yesterday's post, I mentioned that I wondered where Utah would go if they lost to BYU.  I think BYU is at somewhat of a crossroads on their own.  BYU has a better team than it has had in some time.  It has a better team than it will have next year.  The seniors know that one loss is one too many if they want to get into a BCS game.  That makes the Utah game an absolute must-win.  The team could respond and win a bunch of games, but this is the first of just a handful that "matter" according to national media.  With a loss, BYU will disappear from the collective subconscious of the people that matter in college football.  No more ranking.  No more BCS talk.  No more coverage this season.

If BYU loses, will they have a letdown next week too?  Does it lead to a downward spiral or can they recover?  Well, in the preseason I thought they'd lose this game and rebound next week at Boise.  My opinion of BYU's resolve hasn't changed.  BYU could recover from one loss.  I'm not as sure they bounce back after the second one, but we'll get there when we get there.  Right now, the Cougars are still 2-0.

Is the Future Now?
Part of Utah's struggle right now is Wynn's retirement brings Utah to have to make a program decision during rivalry week: play the senior and hope to salvage the season?  Or give the freshman experience to build on for next year?  I believe you have to go with the senior, at least until the bye.  The Utes cannot afford to take a true freshman from 3rd string to starter in a week's time.  That would crush their hopes in this weekend's game and could signal a metaphorical wave of the white flag for the season.  Go with Hays.  The way the OL blocks, Wilson may get his chance soon enough anyway!

The Matchup
I think both offenses struggle in this game.  Traditionally, these rivalry games are higher-scoring at Utah and lower-scoring in Provo.  The last two years have put a decade of tradition, or at least my opinions, to the test.  Well, last year UTAH did by scoring a bunch in Provo.  I think the atmosphere in Rice-Eccles is just that much more electrifying and traditionally leads to more gamers making more game plays.  Both teams have WRs and TEs that can provide big plays and create mismatches with the opposing D's secondary.  However, neither team has a true slinger, pocket-passer to get that done.

I suspect the running game won't even amount to "three yards and a cloud of dust" on Saturday, especially if John White doesn't play for Utah.  I suspect Utah will attempt to get their running game going with some Travis Wilson wildcat and an occasional WR reverse.  I am not sure what the Cougars plan on doing to establish a ground attack.  I don't suspect that a steady diet of QB draws will get the job done.  They may have a LITTLE success with the option.  There just isn't much evidence that the power running game will actually work against Utah.

I really believe the defenses will dominate the evening (or morning for us in the Eastern Time Zone).  Utah's weakness on D is BYU's weakness on O.  Utah has no strengths on O, so, nothing to compare there.  However, in a defensive struggle, I always like the Utes to make one more big play.  Well, I don't LIKE it, but I would trust Utah more in that situation.  I have felt that way for the past 15 years.  I've been right most of them too.  A blocked field goal to end regulation in 2010.  A single successful FG attempt in 2003.  The only year BYU flipped the script was Collie's magical reception...

Cougars, I know you all hope I'm wrong here, as do I, but I'm sticking with my preseason prediction: Utah 16, BYU 13.