A dose of reality

I have read about non-BCS teams and their chance at the national championship. For a number of reasons, BYU is one of teams in this discussion. Let me dispel one myth at the outset. BYU will not go undefeated, so they do not have a chance at a national championship this season. However, this is mostly a theoretical discussion about a non-BCS team's chance to play for the national championship. So BYU, because of its recent history (3 10+ win seasons in a row), long-standing tradition (National Championship in 1984, consistently ranked throughout the 70's, 80's, and 90's, and past 3 seasons), and 2009 schedule (neutral site against Oklahoma, plus Florida State, TCU, and Utah at home), is a good team to run the theoretical discussion about.

Can they play for the National Championship? Yes, but it does not depend entirely on them. An undefeated season, by itself, would not put them in the game, but it would put them in the discussion. At that point it depends on the records/resumes of the other teams in the discussion. An undefeated Texas or Florida would also have beaten Oklahoma and Florida State, respectively, but had a tougher schedule overall. However, one-loss teams, even Florida or Texas, may not have the punch to their argument. An undefeated BYU, with wins over 3-4 ranked opponents, combined with only 1-loss BCS teams, means that they COULD play for it all. Florida played 4 ranked teams last season, only 2 of which were still ranked at the end of the season. OU played 5, 4 of which made the final rankings. If it is like the 2007 season, where even the "best" BCS teams have 2 losses, it means that they WOULD play for it.

I've heard some people say if Utah couldn't do it last year with no undefeated BCS teams, no undefeated non-BCS team can do it. These are very different situations.
1) Utah finished the 2007 season unranked. BYU finished last season ranked in both polls.
2) Utah started the 2008 season unranked and off the radar. BYU has received a lot of national attention as a potential BCS buster, and will likely start off in the top 25.
3) Utah's win at Michigan (who also lost at home to Toledo and finished 3-9) pushed Utah into the top 25. If BYU beats Oklahoma, it would put them into the top 15, 8-10 spots higher than Utah was after week 1.
4) Utah also beat Oregon State who had just upset USC, but Oregon State was not ranked at the time, and was not ranked higher than 23rd during the season at any time. Florida State will be ranked, and possibly even in the top 15, when BYU plays them.
5) Utah busted into the top 15 by week 5. BYU, if undefeated, would be in the top 7 or 8 at the same time. I base this on the fact that last year, even without victories over OU and FSU, BYU was ranked 7th and 8th in the polls by week 5.
6) Utah played only 2 ranked teams (both of them conference opponents, though Michigan was ranked in one preseason poll last season). BYU will play at least 3, possibly 4 (that will depend on Utah).
7) Brian Johnson, Utah's QB last year, was never even mentioned in the Heisman discussion. Max Hall received some attention already last year, and has been mentioned by a few as a potential darkhorse (if and only if BYU beats OU and Florida State...) this year. The more pub a team (or a player on a team) gets, the better the team's chances for moving up in the rankings. BYU has also made some national noise in their recruiting. It does not help their 2009 team at all, but again, any publicity is good publicity.

If there ever was a non-BCS team to play for the National Championship, it would need a schedule like BYU's from this year. It would need a string of good seasons like BYU has had the past 3 years. It would need the preseason attention that BYU has been getting. BYU is setting the model for what it would take for an undefeated non-BCS school to get to the National Championship game in the current BCS format. If nothing else, an 11-1 school that follows this same model, would likely still play in a BCS game.