65 predictions, #46

#46: The Mountain West will have at least 5 bowl eligible teams. TCU, BYU, Air Force, and Utah will all go bowling, along with at least one other team getting eligible. Here's a quick rundown of the others:

Colorado State: I like the defense. They lost a lot on offense and have some question marks. I'm not as concerned with the QB position as I read a lot of other "experts" are. One, they are a running team. Two, Fairchild is a QB coach, he'll coach them up. Three, Fairchild spent several years in the NFL: if he is unhappy with his QB play in spring practice, it might be because his expectations are a bit high for a Mountain West Conference quarterback. He is only in his second year as a head coach, so I'd like to see some consistency before I go naming them the 5th bowl eligible team. They are my favorite, but I did pick right on them last year (though many of you ridiculed the pick), what are the odds I do it twice and get it right both times?
UNLV: They have been building a little momentum the past few seasons. They just lack the fan support and excitement, plus their uniforms are ugly. They have been able to pull off some upsets against BCS foes, but they'll probably need to beat Oregon State or Hawaii (both at home) and/or win at Nevada to have a reasonable shot at getting to 6 wins, especially considering their pretty poor conference play the past few seasons.
New Mexico: I think they have the pieces in place, but coming off a 4-8 season where your coach resigns, stating that he just can't get New Mexico over the hump to compete in this league, could shake the confidence of these guys. Remember, last year they were just a broken arm by their now NFL CB away from beating Utah. They had injuries to key personnel at critical junctures all throughout last season that cost them a couple of close games. The new coach, Mike Locksley, while very experienced in coaching, is in his first year as THE head coach, which isn't the same as being an assistant (just ask Gary Crowton). Pieces are there: depth probably still isn't. Locksley is supposedly a good recruiter, but no one can work that fast.
Wyoming: Year in and year out, this is one of the best defenses in the conference, it only looks like they give up a lot of points because they either had bad field position or the other teams' defenses and special teams were scoring points. They definitely lacked discipline and creativity on offense and special teams last year. Coach Christensen definitely exhibited both attributes with his offense at Mizzou, so that should improve. He is going to a no-huddle spread offense, which will definitely speed up the pace (though if they don't get first downs, it just means the D spends even MORE time on the field). The main concern here is that I don't see when they will get on a roll: their easier games are too spread out.
San Diego State: The speed is there, the size and confidence is not. I felt this a lot last year watching them play: the players didn't believe in the team, it was just a bunch of individuals doing their best. It led to a lot of people playing out of position. This could turn around with Hoke at the helm and Rocky Long running the defense. I look for them to be improved in a lot of ways, but probably not enough to get to a bowl game: though with their non-conference schedule, I wouldn't count them out as they'll probably win 3 non-conference games and 3-5 in conference isn't that unreasonable with their speed.