65 predictions, #52

Every season we all wait with eager anticipation for the preseason top 25 polls to come out. Inevitably, the final poll looks extremely different than the preseason one. Last year's preseason AP poll had the following gaffes in the top 10 alone: Georgia as #1, finished 13th; Mizzou as #6, finished 19th; LSU as #7, finished 3rd in the "others receiving votes" category (we'll call it 28th); West Virginia as #8, finished 23rd; Clemson as #9, finished completely out of the rankings (not even receiving a single vote); and Auburn was #10, did not even get bowl eligible. So the AP did OK on 2-5 (tough to miss on Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC), but completely missed #1 and 6-10. While we don't have the actual poll to make fun of just yet, I am going to predict which teams that might start as the media's darlings will end up underachieving (or prove to have been overrated).

#52: There are several schools that might qualify for biggest misses of the year. We'll start in the SEC, since 3 of our 5 examples from last year are from there. Ole Miss is not nearly as good as you read. I know I predicted them as the team to watch out for in the SEC West, but only because I think the SEC West will be down a bit this season. They will most likely start in the top 10, and finish in the 20's.

Oklahoma State does get 8 home games this season. They snuck up on a few people last year. The problem is you don't get to sneak up on people two years in a row. The other problem is that a home game doesn't guarantee a win, particularly if you're opponent is better than you. Georgia, Missouri, and Texas all have pretty good chances to beat them. The problem with playing so many games at home: it makes it harder to win on the road! The Cowboys don't go on the road until week 6, the second weekend in October! I would not be surprised in the least if Okie State loses to A&M there. At Baylor will be no walk in the park and they finish the year at Oklahoma. I'm predicting at least 3 losses, possibly as many as 5.
Moving to the Pac 10: Oregon and California both are potential preseason top 10 teams that could flop. Oregon has faded down the stretch every year for the last umpteen years. It's science. California has never handled the spotlight very well. They play each other, in addition to USC, so one of these teams already has two losses before the season even begins. Oregon plays at Boise State before hosting Purdue and Utah. They also play at UCLA and at Arizona, both losable games. California plays Maryland and at Minnesota. They also travel to Oregon and Arizona State during the season. Oregon is probably the more likely of the two to completely flop, but with the Ducks hosting Cal, both teams are likely going to have single-digit wins.

I want to add Ohio State here as well, but their relatively light schedule puts them at worst 9-3. With that record and their embarrassing schedule (minus USC), they SHOULD be out of the top 25, but I'm sure they'd be fluttering around 10-15 in the final polls even if they did lose both their tough games plus another conference game.