Friday, July 31, 2009

65 predictions, #35

Thursday's prediction.

#35: The SEC will have the best non-conference home record for a BCS conference. I teetered a bit between the SEC and the Big 12. I would say statistically speaking, the Big 12 has a slightly easier home schedule, but there is no Iowa State, Baylor, K-State, or A&M in the SEC that could lose to any one, at any time, for any reason.
SEC and Big 12 by the numbers:

SEC plays 79% of its non-conference games at home
29% of those are against I-AA teams
67% of I-A opponents are from non-BCS conferences (5 of the 18 went to bowl games last season)
6 of their 9 BCS opponents went to bowl games last season (0 BCS games)
4 of their games with BCS opponents are "rivalry" games

Big 12 plays 69% of its non-conference games at home
27% of those are against I-AA teams
83% of I-A opponents are from non-BCS conferences (7 of the 20 went to bowl games last season)
3 of their 4 BCS opponents went to bowl games last season (0 BCS games)
1 of their games with BCS opponents is a "rivalry" game

More BCS opponents and more rivalry games by the SEC makes their road a little tougher, but you'll see both conferences win over 90% of their non-conference home games. The SEC will come out with a slightly higher percentage though, according to Mo Knows, because, top to bottom, they will be a better league this season after a one-year hiatus from the "best conference in the country"crown.

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