The New Mexico Mystery
This is the matchup that BYU had to want. Beating CSU for a third time says nothing. Beating New Mexico says a lot. Of course, losing a third time to New Mexico says a lot too...although I think it says as much about New Mexico as it does about BYU: why can't they treat every game like it's against BYU? There is no way a team that beats BYU 3 times in a season should lose twice to SDSU, UNLV, and Utah! They shouldn't lose at Wyoming. They shouldn't have a 3-game and a 4-game losing streak in conference play. They shouldn't be a 5-seed. And they shouldn't have finished .500 in the conference. Their only two MWC games to this point where they scored more than 80 points were against BYU (though they did score exactly 80 against TCU). In 15 other MWC games, against some pretty bad teams, mind you, their two best games were against BYU. Lobo fans probably love the fact that they could beat BYU three teams. I would hate it. I would wonder why my team was probably going on the road in the NIT if they were that capable, but that's just me and my high expectations.
Why It's Big and Why Both Teams Could Struggle
Both teams need this game: New Mexico to have a chance for the NCAA Tournament, BYU to have confidence going into the NCAA Tournament. Mentally, New Mexico has the edge. Physically, it's got to be pretty even. With BYU, they have some size and depth issues. James Anderson is the biggest body, but he proved to be entirely worthless against New Mexico last game. With New Mexico, they have some injury issues. Their two best defenders, that have stymied Jimmer more than anybody in the conference, are both battling significant ailments. My guess is, once the lights go on, they won't show any semblance of their injuries and will be just fine.
Home Court for the 5-Seed
The question remains: can New Mexico make it 3-3 with amazing shooting performances against BYU? Well, the closer the game is, the more likely that happens. SDSU and UNLV fans will file in the final 10 minutes and turn it into a home game for New Mexico (though the smart thing to do would be to cheer for BYU so your team can get another crack at them. Of course, I gave up on expecting smart things from people associated with this conference a long time ago). BYU must lead, and they must lead big.
Prediction
Well, I made my prediction at the start of the tournament. BYU wins and plays UNLV in the Final. I will stick with that. BYU will find ways to score against hobbled Lobos. The Cougars will be much more aggressive. New Mexico will (finally) miss some shots. Realistically, I think it comes down to how tight the game is called: if they actually call some fouls on New Mexico when they foul on EVERY possession, BYU could win this game running away. But I have zero confidence in MWC officials to be fair and objective in their final chance to officiate a BYU game. The reason BYU plays so poorly against New Mexico is that the Lobos play so physical, i.e. they foul all the time, knowing that the refs can't call everything (I call this the Michigan State defense). BYU players get so frustrated that the refs are missing so many fouls and play poorly. Meanwhile, the Lobos must just laugh at how much hacking they get away with, and it allows them to play looser on offense and make everything they throw up there.
I try to be objective in my blog, but my utter hatred for the petty people of the MWC and for the vile fans of the New Mexico Lobos just spews over on a day like today. Go Cougars. Bury those freaking Lobos and send them back to that craphole where they came from and belong. BYU 83, New Mexico 78
Friday, March 11, 2011
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
2011 MWC Tourney Predictions: First Round
Play-In Game
Wyoming over TCU, in the ultimate "who cares" game.
BYU vs. Play-In Winner
BYU may get a little scare, but that's a long way from a first-round exit. BYU wins, perhaps closer than it should be, but the game will never really be in doubt. Jimmer scores whatever he needs to in order to establish that BYU will not be an easy out.
CSU-New Mexico
I think one thing people vastly overemphasize heading into conference tournaments is who came in on what kind of roll. CSU came limping into the tournament dropping 4 out of 5 games to end the season. New Mexico came in with guns blazing, having won 3 in a row including a rare win at the Marriott Center. That doesn't matter. Both teams are in desperation mode. Both team's only chance at an NCAA tournament bid is to win the MWC Tourney. Which team is hungrier? Which team can play within itself with so much on the line? I think ultimately New Mexico wins this game because 1) they have more shooters, 2) they have a battle-tested PG who has come through in the clutch before, and 3) they smell the chance to play BYU one more time. It will have nothing to do with being a hotter team, and everything to do with being a more tournament-ready team.
SDSU-Utah
SDSU couldn't have asked for a better first round opponent, except for maybe Wyoming. Their complete domination over the Utes in San Diego was very telling of the direction of the two programs. Flashback two years ago: Utah knocks off SDSU in the Tournament Final. Since then, it has been totally opposite directions. Utah goes to the NCAA Tournament and gets thumped in the first round as a 5-seed. SDSU went to the NIT, where they advanced to the Final Four in Madison Square Garden. The next season, SDSU goes to the NCAA Tournament after winning the MWC Tournament and comes within a basket of upsetting Tennessee. Utah gets blown out of the Conference Tournament to finish the season with a losing record. This year, Coach Fisher gets Co-Coach of the Year in the MWC as his Aztecs share a conference title and are in line to get a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Boylen is on a very hot seat as his team will finish the season with a losing record again. What a difference two years makes. With all of that build-up, Utah still has some very talented, albeit inexperienced, players, they just have a terrible coach. SDSU has more talented players, more experienced players, and a much better coach. SDSU may get a little scare of their own, but it won't last long. They do their job to set up a Semifinal showdown with UNLV.
Air Force-UNLV
If you are going to knock UNLV out, it's better to do it early. Their fans may show up on Friday if the opponent is good, but usually they wait to turn out in droves for the Championship Game on Saturday. Thursday is the best chance to get a somewhat neutral crowd. UNLV and Air Force played the worst game I have ever followed on Gametracker earlier this year at the Thomas & Mack. UNLV, smelling blood in the water, will play a much better game and advance to play SDSU.
Looking Ahead
I hate to pick chalk (besides 5th-seeded New Mexico "upsetting" a team that they are actually better than), but the conference is so top-heavy that it's tough to imagine an upset in the Quarterfinals. If I had to pick a team with the best chance at an upset, I'd say Air Force over UNLV. UNLV is riding high right now and may very easily overlook the Falcons with SDSU up next.
If my predictions are right, my early thoughts are to take a BYU-UNLV Final. No way BYU loses for a third time to New Mexico, and the same thing with UNLV against SDSU, especially not on a Friday night in front of a packed and very partisan Rebel crowd. UNLV remembers that it was SDSU that knocked them out of the tournament last year! Besides, Tre'Von has a bone to pick with Jimmer, because apparently the first two beatings weren't enough to convince Mr. Willis that the Jimmer was more than just supposedly the best player in the MWC. He is, in very deed, the best player. And it was unanimous.
Plus, really, how could the final MWC-As-We-Know-It Tournament NOT have another BYU-UNLV Final? They have produced some of the most dramatic moments and games in the history of the MWC tournament. Utah-SDSU had an eventful title game decided on the last possession two years ago, but in front of a half-full arena with only 102 combined points scored, it's tough to call that electric. It's got to be BYU-UNLV, one last time. Who is with me?
Wyoming over TCU, in the ultimate "who cares" game.
BYU vs. Play-In Winner
BYU may get a little scare, but that's a long way from a first-round exit. BYU wins, perhaps closer than it should be, but the game will never really be in doubt. Jimmer scores whatever he needs to in order to establish that BYU will not be an easy out.
CSU-New Mexico
I think one thing people vastly overemphasize heading into conference tournaments is who came in on what kind of roll. CSU came limping into the tournament dropping 4 out of 5 games to end the season. New Mexico came in with guns blazing, having won 3 in a row including a rare win at the Marriott Center. That doesn't matter. Both teams are in desperation mode. Both team's only chance at an NCAA tournament bid is to win the MWC Tourney. Which team is hungrier? Which team can play within itself with so much on the line? I think ultimately New Mexico wins this game because 1) they have more shooters, 2) they have a battle-tested PG who has come through in the clutch before, and 3) they smell the chance to play BYU one more time. It will have nothing to do with being a hotter team, and everything to do with being a more tournament-ready team.
SDSU-Utah
SDSU couldn't have asked for a better first round opponent, except for maybe Wyoming. Their complete domination over the Utes in San Diego was very telling of the direction of the two programs. Flashback two years ago: Utah knocks off SDSU in the Tournament Final. Since then, it has been totally opposite directions. Utah goes to the NCAA Tournament and gets thumped in the first round as a 5-seed. SDSU went to the NIT, where they advanced to the Final Four in Madison Square Garden. The next season, SDSU goes to the NCAA Tournament after winning the MWC Tournament and comes within a basket of upsetting Tennessee. Utah gets blown out of the Conference Tournament to finish the season with a losing record. This year, Coach Fisher gets Co-Coach of the Year in the MWC as his Aztecs share a conference title and are in line to get a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Boylen is on a very hot seat as his team will finish the season with a losing record again. What a difference two years makes. With all of that build-up, Utah still has some very talented, albeit inexperienced, players, they just have a terrible coach. SDSU has more talented players, more experienced players, and a much better coach. SDSU may get a little scare of their own, but it won't last long. They do their job to set up a Semifinal showdown with UNLV.
Air Force-UNLV
If you are going to knock UNLV out, it's better to do it early. Their fans may show up on Friday if the opponent is good, but usually they wait to turn out in droves for the Championship Game on Saturday. Thursday is the best chance to get a somewhat neutral crowd. UNLV and Air Force played the worst game I have ever followed on Gametracker earlier this year at the Thomas & Mack. UNLV, smelling blood in the water, will play a much better game and advance to play SDSU.
Looking Ahead
I hate to pick chalk (besides 5th-seeded New Mexico "upsetting" a team that they are actually better than), but the conference is so top-heavy that it's tough to imagine an upset in the Quarterfinals. If I had to pick a team with the best chance at an upset, I'd say Air Force over UNLV. UNLV is riding high right now and may very easily overlook the Falcons with SDSU up next.
If my predictions are right, my early thoughts are to take a BYU-UNLV Final. No way BYU loses for a third time to New Mexico, and the same thing with UNLV against SDSU, especially not on a Friday night in front of a packed and very partisan Rebel crowd. UNLV remembers that it was SDSU that knocked them out of the tournament last year! Besides, Tre'Von has a bone to pick with Jimmer, because apparently the first two beatings weren't enough to convince Mr. Willis that the Jimmer was more than just supposedly the best player in the MWC. He is, in very deed, the best player. And it was unanimous.
Plus, really, how could the final MWC-As-We-Know-It Tournament NOT have another BYU-UNLV Final? They have produced some of the most dramatic moments and games in the history of the MWC tournament. Utah-SDSU had an eventful title game decided on the last possession two years ago, but in front of a half-full arena with only 102 combined points scored, it's tough to call that electric. It's got to be BYU-UNLV, one last time. Who is with me?
A Few Thoughts, 3/8/2011
Happy International Women's Day. Buy that special lady in your life a little something special today. Or, if you're broke like me, just do something special for her today. Sorry, I've been absent for a few days. Unfortunately, my life does not always revolve around writing stuff about sports...
Wyoming Game Recap
BYU's defensive deficiencies aren't in the post. The loss of Davies makes that aspect more of a liability, but the biggest issue for BYU is keeping penetration out of the lane. The biggest impact of the Davies loss is on offense. So it was nice to see BYU score 102 points without him. I know Wyoming is bad, but scoring 102 points is tough to do, regardless of the competition. Also, nobody else managed to score over 96 against Wyoming in 30 tries. BYU will have to outscore people in the upcoming tournaments, so it was nice to see that they can still put it in the hole without Davies.
MWC Teams and "Of-The-Year" Guys
Typically, BYU fans always have a gripe with the selection of All-Conference Teams, as well as Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, etc. This season, Jimmer was unanimous POY, which he should have been. The MWC got it right. Jackson Emery was Defensive POY. The MWC got it right. Dave Rose shared Coach of the Year honors with Steve Fisher. The MWC got it right. Fisher did what he was expected to do, Rose exceeded them.
The only gripe I have is that Jackson Emery, the conference's best defensive player and the 2nd-best offensive player on the best team, got beat out for the First Team by SDSU PG D.J. Gay. Emery is clearly a better defender than Gay (evidenced by one being defensive POY and the other not even making the defensive all-conference team), and on offense they are similar enough statistically-speaking, that I thought Jackson should have got the nod. He still made 2nd team, but this is the crap BYU has always dealt with in this petty conference.
TCU wins the conference in football by ONE game: they sweep the awards and dominate the all-conference team. Same thing with Utah. BYU wins the conference in football by THREE games and doesn't even sweep the awards, not to mention the lack of BYU players on the first-team. Joke. Good riddance! Enjoy your new TV contract negotiations without BYU, Utah, and TCU, i.e. without the Salt Lake/Provo and Dallas markets, and without 75% of the conference's paying customers.
MWC Tournament Thoughts
Wednesday brings the start of the MWC Tournament. Wyoming plays TCU, with the winner taking on BYU. TCU always plays BYU tough. They are a bit more physical. BYU should definitely hope to get Wyoming. Even with them shooting lights out on Saturday, BYU beat them by 24, though it was a closer game than that the first 35 minutes. Neither team is a resume-builder, so BYU should just hope to get the easiest opponent.
As far as the second round, it would be better for BYU to beat New Mexico, in my opinion, for statement purposes. A win over CSU would give BYU another top-50 RPI win (would take them to 10-1 against the RPI top-50, with 5 wins away from home). Assuming BYU wins, both would be statements, I just think a win in a rematch with New Mexico would be a bigger statement for the Committee than beating a team they already beat twice, even if it is a quasi-bubble team. It's a high-risk, high-reward type of game with New Mexico: beating them would say a lot, losing to them for a third time would be a big negative on the resume.
Obviously, SDSU is the opponent that seemingly best benefits (or least hurts) BYU in the Finals. It is also one that BYU will have a difficult, nigh-impossible, time winning. And a loss to SDSU would hurt BYU's seeding chances, since it may move SDSU ahead of BYU on the S-Curve. BYU still matches up favorably with UNLV without Davies, and a win against them on their home floor would certainly be a big statement for the Committee. As a BYU fan merely hoping to win the MWC Tourney, I hope for UNLV on the other side. SDSU may be the better opponent, but there is something to be said for ousting the home team in the Finals. Plus it would give BYU a better seeding than the Aztecs if the Cougars advance further than them in the MWC Tournament, even if BYU doesn't win it. At this point, it's all about getting a better seed. If BYU gets to the Final, winning the tournament would help the seed more than losing to a better team, especially with BYU and SDSU so similar in resume. BYU should be happy to take their two head-to-head wins and leave it at that. I see no reason to give the Committee a chance to put the Aztecs in the West Regional!
Wyoming Game Recap
BYU's defensive deficiencies aren't in the post. The loss of Davies makes that aspect more of a liability, but the biggest issue for BYU is keeping penetration out of the lane. The biggest impact of the Davies loss is on offense. So it was nice to see BYU score 102 points without him. I know Wyoming is bad, but scoring 102 points is tough to do, regardless of the competition. Also, nobody else managed to score over 96 against Wyoming in 30 tries. BYU will have to outscore people in the upcoming tournaments, so it was nice to see that they can still put it in the hole without Davies.
MWC Teams and "Of-The-Year" Guys
Typically, BYU fans always have a gripe with the selection of All-Conference Teams, as well as Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, etc. This season, Jimmer was unanimous POY, which he should have been. The MWC got it right. Jackson Emery was Defensive POY. The MWC got it right. Dave Rose shared Coach of the Year honors with Steve Fisher. The MWC got it right. Fisher did what he was expected to do, Rose exceeded them.
The only gripe I have is that Jackson Emery, the conference's best defensive player and the 2nd-best offensive player on the best team, got beat out for the First Team by SDSU PG D.J. Gay. Emery is clearly a better defender than Gay (evidenced by one being defensive POY and the other not even making the defensive all-conference team), and on offense they are similar enough statistically-speaking, that I thought Jackson should have got the nod. He still made 2nd team, but this is the crap BYU has always dealt with in this petty conference.
TCU wins the conference in football by ONE game: they sweep the awards and dominate the all-conference team. Same thing with Utah. BYU wins the conference in football by THREE games and doesn't even sweep the awards, not to mention the lack of BYU players on the first-team. Joke. Good riddance! Enjoy your new TV contract negotiations without BYU, Utah, and TCU, i.e. without the Salt Lake/Provo and Dallas markets, and without 75% of the conference's paying customers.
MWC Tournament Thoughts
Wednesday brings the start of the MWC Tournament. Wyoming plays TCU, with the winner taking on BYU. TCU always plays BYU tough. They are a bit more physical. BYU should definitely hope to get Wyoming. Even with them shooting lights out on Saturday, BYU beat them by 24, though it was a closer game than that the first 35 minutes. Neither team is a resume-builder, so BYU should just hope to get the easiest opponent.
As far as the second round, it would be better for BYU to beat New Mexico, in my opinion, for statement purposes. A win over CSU would give BYU another top-50 RPI win (would take them to 10-1 against the RPI top-50, with 5 wins away from home). Assuming BYU wins, both would be statements, I just think a win in a rematch with New Mexico would be a bigger statement for the Committee than beating a team they already beat twice, even if it is a quasi-bubble team. It's a high-risk, high-reward type of game with New Mexico: beating them would say a lot, losing to them for a third time would be a big negative on the resume.
Obviously, SDSU is the opponent that seemingly best benefits (or least hurts) BYU in the Finals. It is also one that BYU will have a difficult, nigh-impossible, time winning. And a loss to SDSU would hurt BYU's seeding chances, since it may move SDSU ahead of BYU on the S-Curve. BYU still matches up favorably with UNLV without Davies, and a win against them on their home floor would certainly be a big statement for the Committee. As a BYU fan merely hoping to win the MWC Tourney, I hope for UNLV on the other side. SDSU may be the better opponent, but there is something to be said for ousting the home team in the Finals. Plus it would give BYU a better seeding than the Aztecs if the Cougars advance further than them in the MWC Tournament, even if BYU doesn't win it. At this point, it's all about getting a better seed. If BYU gets to the Final, winning the tournament would help the seed more than losing to a better team, especially with BYU and SDSU so similar in resume. BYU should be happy to take their two head-to-head wins and leave it at that. I see no reason to give the Committee a chance to put the Aztecs in the West Regional!
Friday, March 4, 2011
Where BYU Basketball Goes From Here, 3/4/2011
Two "Easy" Games
BYU has two games in which they can get their act together. BYU gets Wyoming on Saturday. Wyoming is the type of team that always looks like the product that BYU put out on Wednesday night against New Mexico. In fact, as bad as BYU was, that may have been superior to anything Wyoming has put out in the past two months. So BYU should win, and have a good opportunity figure out a rotation and get some things figured out offensively. BYU gets to follow that up, assuming it is a win (Mo predicts BYU 84, Wyoming 61), with the winner of the 8/9 play-in game in the MWC Tournament. That is either Wyoming or TCU, which should be another easy win.
Rematch with Lobos is Best Possible Scenario
If BYU hasn't figured it out by then, the two games following that will be brutal for the Cougars: CSU or New Mexico followed by an NCAA Tournament game. But if BYU does have some things figured out by then, BYU may end up with a golden opportunity. 9 days after the debacle in Provo, BYU could get a rematch with New Mexico. BYU would have a very direct opportunity to make a statement to the Selection Committee: the team that played on 3/2/2011 against New Mexico is not the BYU team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, they would have to actually beat New Mexico, and perhaps even by double digits, to make that statement.
Seeding
With 3 straight wins, including a rematch with New Mexico, BYU could still lose in the MWC Final and garner a 2-seed. Anything less than that and it may be a 3-seed, or perhaps even as low as a 4. Jerry Palm has BYU as a 4-seed right now. That is probably about right as of today, but BYU can prove that they are better than they played on Wednesday night. That is all they have to do to get back to the 2/3 line. As I have said before: I believe they will prove that, because I believe they are better. I believe they will still "earn" a 2-seed by pulling out 3 consecutive wins. Though perhaps that is just the Cougar fan in Michael, and not the objective blogger in Mo...
BYU has two games in which they can get their act together. BYU gets Wyoming on Saturday. Wyoming is the type of team that always looks like the product that BYU put out on Wednesday night against New Mexico. In fact, as bad as BYU was, that may have been superior to anything Wyoming has put out in the past two months. So BYU should win, and have a good opportunity figure out a rotation and get some things figured out offensively. BYU gets to follow that up, assuming it is a win (Mo predicts BYU 84, Wyoming 61), with the winner of the 8/9 play-in game in the MWC Tournament. That is either Wyoming or TCU, which should be another easy win.
Rematch with Lobos is Best Possible Scenario
If BYU hasn't figured it out by then, the two games following that will be brutal for the Cougars: CSU or New Mexico followed by an NCAA Tournament game. But if BYU does have some things figured out by then, BYU may end up with a golden opportunity. 9 days after the debacle in Provo, BYU could get a rematch with New Mexico. BYU would have a very direct opportunity to make a statement to the Selection Committee: the team that played on 3/2/2011 against New Mexico is not the BYU team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, they would have to actually beat New Mexico, and perhaps even by double digits, to make that statement.
Seeding
With 3 straight wins, including a rematch with New Mexico, BYU could still lose in the MWC Final and garner a 2-seed. Anything less than that and it may be a 3-seed, or perhaps even as low as a 4. Jerry Palm has BYU as a 4-seed right now. That is probably about right as of today, but BYU can prove that they are better than they played on Wednesday night. That is all they have to do to get back to the 2/3 line. As I have said before: I believe they will prove that, because I believe they are better. I believe they will still "earn" a 2-seed by pulling out 3 consecutive wins. Though perhaps that is just the Cougar fan in Michael, and not the objective blogger in Mo...
Thursday, March 3, 2011
The Silver Lining After New Mexico
I do not believe that the team we saw last night is what BYU is going to be without Davies. I think there will be some adjustments. The team will figure it out. Like I said in an earlier post, I think losing Davies makes this team a lot more like last year's team that still advanced out of the first round for the first time in 18 years. I think they just need to adjust to that. That takes time. They are obviously perimeter-oriented now, but they do not have to be three point-oriented like they were last night. It was 5 guys standing around the three-point line jacking up the first thing resembling an open look. Abouo only drove one time, and that was after the game was well out of hand. He needs to put it on the floor more. Jackson was jacking up anything. Jimmer was pleading for fouls. And Hartsock and Collinsworth decided to not participate in the offense last night. They need ball movement through quick, crisp passes, like they did in the non-conference schedule. BYU will get that back on offense.
Defensively, the team was not in it. They weren't focused. Jimmer was BYU's most tenacious defender last night. That is not a good sign. There was no hustle. They were getting beat to the floor for loose balls. They were getting beat to the rim. They weren't closing on open shooters. That wasn't Davies' physical absence causing it. It was all mental. They can get over the mental aspect of this. They will. But they had better do it fast. Their NCAA Tournament seed depends on them winning the next two games. I think the shock of it all will have passed by Saturday. BYU will get it going again.
I am confident that BYU is a better team than they were last night. There is no doubt of it. Once they get the rotation set (i.e. starting Kyle Collinsworth), things will get going again. Once the emotion passes, Jackson won't be kicking chairs, Logan Magnusson won't be getting technical fouls, James Anderson will not be intentionally knocking opponents down. It will come. There is hope. All is not lost. This is still a team at least as good as last year's. If I'm right about that, then, with a better draw, they should have a really good chance at the Sweet 16.
Defensively, the team was not in it. They weren't focused. Jimmer was BYU's most tenacious defender last night. That is not a good sign. There was no hustle. They were getting beat to the floor for loose balls. They were getting beat to the rim. They weren't closing on open shooters. That wasn't Davies' physical absence causing it. It was all mental. They can get over the mental aspect of this. They will. But they had better do it fast. Their NCAA Tournament seed depends on them winning the next two games. I think the shock of it all will have passed by Saturday. BYU will get it going again.
I am confident that BYU is a better team than they were last night. There is no doubt of it. Once they get the rotation set (i.e. starting Kyle Collinsworth), things will get going again. Once the emotion passes, Jackson won't be kicking chairs, Logan Magnusson won't be getting technical fouls, James Anderson will not be intentionally knocking opponents down. It will come. There is hope. All is not lost. This is still a team at least as good as last year's. If I'm right about that, then, with a better draw, they should have a really good chance at the Sweet 16.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Post New Mexico-BYU Observations, 3/2/2011
1) New Mexico absolutely saves everything they have for BYU. Every time. Like my friend Holly from New Mexico always says when talking about her "homeland": everyone in the state hates everything about BYU, 100% of the time, for all of their lives. They dropped 86 points on BYU in the previous meeting. Since then, their only game at 80 points was against TCU, the absolute worst team in the conference. They were consistently scoring in the 60's. Then they come back and drop 82 on the road in the Marriott Center.
They got a lot of open looks throughout the game, but they played and shot out of their minds. The epitome was with about 2 minutes left, shot clock at 1, man in his face, fade-away 3-pointer, just to prevent a shot clock violation: nothing but net for a 35% 3-point shooter. Phillip McDonald goes for 26, shooting 5-8 from 3. Kendall Williams drops 15, on 3-5 from 3. Two guys have career nights. Just like last time, just a different pair of guys. They seem to save it all up for BYU. Losing 4 of the last 5, averaging 66 points a game since playing BYU. And they drop 82 on the road on 47% shooting, 45% from 3. This is a 35% shooting team from 3 on the year and against BYU they are shooting 43%. They average 74 points/game. Against BYU, they average 84. The "BYU Factor" is alive and well for New Mexico. Honestly, it's like they've been taking it easy the past 3 weeks just saving everything for the game against BYU.
2) As the season has gone on, the officiating gets worse and worse in BYU games. Jimmer drives, gets fouled three times before throwing up a crazy shot that he misses. Play on. Jimmer drives, player concedes the layup and intentionally avoids contact. Jimmer gets the and-one. There were at least 30 plays where they missed fouls or called bad fouls. I don't think that is an exaggeration. I thought James Anderson was going to get ejected for a late, and obviously intentional, shove on Drew Gordon at the end of the game. I didn't just think he was going to, I thought he should have. Instead, it was out of bounds, off New Mexico, BYU ball. When you have Jackson Emery getting called for a foul 30 feet from the basket when New Mexico actually pushed their own guy, it's bad. When that isn't even in the top 5 of bad calls, that's atrocious. The refs should not get paid for their performance tonight. At least not from the NCAA...The same goes for everybody in a Cougar uniform. There wasn't a whole lot that any of them did to earn their scholarships tonight. BYU was not winning the game tonight, even if they got all of the calls that the refs totally blew.
3) BYU is not as mentally tough as I thought. They showed true grit and determination on Saturday. They pulled together when the going got tough in San Diego. They showed that they can handle a raucous crowd with incessantly vulgar taunts, they can deal with traps from athletic opponents, and they can handle anything inside that 94-foot rectangle. But they crumbled tonight. I thought the seniors would pull them together. I thought they had enough strengths that they could absorb the blow and still manage to put up points. But they shot themselves out of the game tonight. Just because there is no Brandon Davies to throw the ball into, doesn't mean that BYU can't score inside. But everybody was content to just jack it up from outside. Jimmer and Collinsworth were the only two players that actually tried to penetrate and score. Most of BYU's turnovers were guys literally letting the ball go through their hands: mental mistakes, and many of them. BYU got out-toughed, they got out-hustled, and they got out-shot. At home. With a conference championship on the line.
4) I will not miss the Mountain West one bit. New Mexico always reminds me of that, even when BYU beats them (which is truly rare these days). New Mexico has played 2 great games this season, both against BYU. But, Lobo fans, much like Utah football fans of the 90's, would gladly go 2-30, if they were 2-0 against BYU. Holly, would you agree with that assessment?
They got a lot of open looks throughout the game, but they played and shot out of their minds. The epitome was with about 2 minutes left, shot clock at 1, man in his face, fade-away 3-pointer, just to prevent a shot clock violation: nothing but net for a 35% 3-point shooter. Phillip McDonald goes for 26, shooting 5-8 from 3. Kendall Williams drops 15, on 3-5 from 3. Two guys have career nights. Just like last time, just a different pair of guys. They seem to save it all up for BYU. Losing 4 of the last 5, averaging 66 points a game since playing BYU. And they drop 82 on the road on 47% shooting, 45% from 3. This is a 35% shooting team from 3 on the year and against BYU they are shooting 43%. They average 74 points/game. Against BYU, they average 84. The "BYU Factor" is alive and well for New Mexico. Honestly, it's like they've been taking it easy the past 3 weeks just saving everything for the game against BYU.
2) As the season has gone on, the officiating gets worse and worse in BYU games. Jimmer drives, gets fouled three times before throwing up a crazy shot that he misses. Play on. Jimmer drives, player concedes the layup and intentionally avoids contact. Jimmer gets the and-one. There were at least 30 plays where they missed fouls or called bad fouls. I don't think that is an exaggeration. I thought James Anderson was going to get ejected for a late, and obviously intentional, shove on Drew Gordon at the end of the game. I didn't just think he was going to, I thought he should have. Instead, it was out of bounds, off New Mexico, BYU ball. When you have Jackson Emery getting called for a foul 30 feet from the basket when New Mexico actually pushed their own guy, it's bad. When that isn't even in the top 5 of bad calls, that's atrocious. The refs should not get paid for their performance tonight. At least not from the NCAA...The same goes for everybody in a Cougar uniform. There wasn't a whole lot that any of them did to earn their scholarships tonight. BYU was not winning the game tonight, even if they got all of the calls that the refs totally blew.
3) BYU is not as mentally tough as I thought. They showed true grit and determination on Saturday. They pulled together when the going got tough in San Diego. They showed that they can handle a raucous crowd with incessantly vulgar taunts, they can deal with traps from athletic opponents, and they can handle anything inside that 94-foot rectangle. But they crumbled tonight. I thought the seniors would pull them together. I thought they had enough strengths that they could absorb the blow and still manage to put up points. But they shot themselves out of the game tonight. Just because there is no Brandon Davies to throw the ball into, doesn't mean that BYU can't score inside. But everybody was content to just jack it up from outside. Jimmer and Collinsworth were the only two players that actually tried to penetrate and score. Most of BYU's turnovers were guys literally letting the ball go through their hands: mental mistakes, and many of them. BYU got out-toughed, they got out-hustled, and they got out-shot. At home. With a conference championship on the line.
4) I will not miss the Mountain West one bit. New Mexico always reminds me of that, even when BYU beats them (which is truly rare these days). New Mexico has played 2 great games this season, both against BYU. But, Lobo fans, much like Utah football fans of the 90's, would gladly go 2-30, if they were 2-0 against BYU. Holly, would you agree with that assessment?
New Mexico-BYU Preview, 3/2/2011
I think we'll see a BYU team that is ready to step up their game tonight. Jimmer Fredette recognizes the challenge ahead of BYU. I expect tonight, everybody will try to give just a little bit more. In the case of some players, they may look sloppy and in a rush, and make mistakes, but Jimmer should be able to take it in stride and just get into that next gear. If BYU isn't playing well, Jimmer will step up his game. He seems to know when his team needs him to get it going. Tonight might be that night.
New Mexico comes in having lost four of their last 5. They have been struggling to score points. They have not exceeded 70 puts in regulation in over a month. How the absence of Brandon Davies will impact their ability to score is unknown. Certainly second-leading scorer Drew Gordon should find the going a bit easier. But it wasn't Gordon that killed BYU last time. It was New Mexico getting open threes. Perhaps BYU putting a 4th guard out there in a 2-3 zone situation (they'll have to play more zone to protect guys from foul trouble), would help slow that down. That and the fact that New Mexico is 2-5 on the road in MWC play.
I expect BYU to play well defensively and score a lot points offensively. I do expect a sloppy, wide-open type of game. Cougars 90, Lobos 75, Jimmer 39.
New Mexico comes in having lost four of their last 5. They have been struggling to score points. They have not exceeded 70 puts in regulation in over a month. How the absence of Brandon Davies will impact their ability to score is unknown. Certainly second-leading scorer Drew Gordon should find the going a bit easier. But it wasn't Gordon that killed BYU last time. It was New Mexico getting open threes. Perhaps BYU putting a 4th guard out there in a 2-3 zone situation (they'll have to play more zone to protect guys from foul trouble), would help slow that down. That and the fact that New Mexico is 2-5 on the road in MWC play.
I expect BYU to play well defensively and score a lot points offensively. I do expect a sloppy, wide-open type of game. Cougars 90, Lobos 75, Jimmer 39.
More Thoughts on BYU, Davies, 3/2/2011
Before the Season
As the season was getting started, I looked at BYU's big men and had happy thoughts. Davies, Hartsock, and Collinsworth were all good players offensively and defensively. Stephen Rogers was a potential Tavernari-type. Logan Magnusson had worked himself to be a team captain in the offseason. James Anderson was supposedly improved. Then as the season started it became apparent that Rogers was too skinny to defend in the post. Magnusson's effort is only enough to overcome his lack of size against lesser PFs, and offensively he still isn't any good. Anderson may have been improved, but his shots still weren't falling and his lack of coordination and athleticism was readily apparent on the defensive end as well. Then Collinsworth went down with a season-ending injury. Kick Davies off the team and Hartsock is the only one left that BYU can count on. They went from a load of potential to a load of...something else.
Deep Tournament Runs?
There were some NCAA Tournament games that BYU was not going to match up well in. Those teams that BYU might face in the Elite Eight or Final Four were going to be tough as it was: Kansas, Ohio State, and Purdue. Now those teams are unbeatable for BYU. BYU was going to have a tough time slowing the Morris twins, Jared Sullinger, or Purdue's two-headed beast in the post. Now there simply are not the bodies to compete. How is Charles Abouo or James Anderson going to slow down guys that 6'8" big-bodied, athletic, well-coached players have had a tough time slowing down? Against KU, BYU would lose the rebounding battle by 10-20. Much like, prior to the football season, BYU had no chance against Florida State and TCU, if BYU has one of these teams in their path, they will be eliminated.
BYU's Sweet 16/Elite Eight Prospects?
Games that were going to be really tough match-ups in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, now become uphill battles: Texas, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Florida, and San Diego State. These teams have solid players at both the 4 and the 5. BYU will have a tough time keeping them from getting good shots in teh post and keeping them off the offensive glass. I wouldn't like our chances against any of these teams either, though it isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Round of 32 Struggles Too?
Games that BYU might have struggled a bit in the Round of 32 will suddenly become really tough games: Kentucky, Georgetown, George Mason, and Texas A&M. I think offensively, BYU can still compete with these types of teams, it's on the defensive side that BYU is really hurt here.
Overall Outlook
BYU will really have to shoot well in the tournament. They will have to outscore people now. The prospects for stopping other teams and securing defensive rebounds will be a whole lot tougher now. The good news is: they can do it. The bad news is: even great shooters have an off-night every 6 games (it takes 6 NCAA Tournament wins to win it all...). With Jimmer, you can never count BYU out, even if the matchups are completely out of whack on the interior.
Even though whatever Davies did was a personal choice, probably knowing it was wrong, you can't help but feel for the young man. BYU was in the midst of a magical season, with quite possibly their best team ever. How will he handle the feeling of disappointing his teammates, his family, and BYU nation? They went from Final Four contender to "can they get out of the first weekend" again. I hope he can overcome this and become a better man. BYU will have its own struggles to overcome this and not become a worse team. They are still a good team, but they took a big inside hit. Does the Jimmer have it in him to carry the team on his back for 4-6 NCAA Tournament games? If BYU can't stop anyone inside, would it be enough anyway?
BYU very much resembles a poor man's Big East team: all about the guard play, with one big body down low. Looking even further, BYU has essentially become a similar team to last year's team with no real inside scoring presence. The other downside is the lack of offensive rebounding and the defense BYU gets from the 4 is that much worse. At this point, BYU should be able to still secure a trip to the Sweet 16. At that point, it's all about matchups. And the chances are not good that BYU will match up well from that point on...
As the season was getting started, I looked at BYU's big men and had happy thoughts. Davies, Hartsock, and Collinsworth were all good players offensively and defensively. Stephen Rogers was a potential Tavernari-type. Logan Magnusson had worked himself to be a team captain in the offseason. James Anderson was supposedly improved. Then as the season started it became apparent that Rogers was too skinny to defend in the post. Magnusson's effort is only enough to overcome his lack of size against lesser PFs, and offensively he still isn't any good. Anderson may have been improved, but his shots still weren't falling and his lack of coordination and athleticism was readily apparent on the defensive end as well. Then Collinsworth went down with a season-ending injury. Kick Davies off the team and Hartsock is the only one left that BYU can count on. They went from a load of potential to a load of...something else.
Deep Tournament Runs?
There were some NCAA Tournament games that BYU was not going to match up well in. Those teams that BYU might face in the Elite Eight or Final Four were going to be tough as it was: Kansas, Ohio State, and Purdue. Now those teams are unbeatable for BYU. BYU was going to have a tough time slowing the Morris twins, Jared Sullinger, or Purdue's two-headed beast in the post. Now there simply are not the bodies to compete. How is Charles Abouo or James Anderson going to slow down guys that 6'8" big-bodied, athletic, well-coached players have had a tough time slowing down? Against KU, BYU would lose the rebounding battle by 10-20. Much like, prior to the football season, BYU had no chance against Florida State and TCU, if BYU has one of these teams in their path, they will be eliminated.
BYU's Sweet 16/Elite Eight Prospects?
Games that were going to be really tough match-ups in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, now become uphill battles: Texas, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Florida, and San Diego State. These teams have solid players at both the 4 and the 5. BYU will have a tough time keeping them from getting good shots in teh post and keeping them off the offensive glass. I wouldn't like our chances against any of these teams either, though it isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Round of 32 Struggles Too?
Games that BYU might have struggled a bit in the Round of 32 will suddenly become really tough games: Kentucky, Georgetown, George Mason, and Texas A&M. I think offensively, BYU can still compete with these types of teams, it's on the defensive side that BYU is really hurt here.
Overall Outlook
BYU will really have to shoot well in the tournament. They will have to outscore people now. The prospects for stopping other teams and securing defensive rebounds will be a whole lot tougher now. The good news is: they can do it. The bad news is: even great shooters have an off-night every 6 games (it takes 6 NCAA Tournament wins to win it all...). With Jimmer, you can never count BYU out, even if the matchups are completely out of whack on the interior.
Even though whatever Davies did was a personal choice, probably knowing it was wrong, you can't help but feel for the young man. BYU was in the midst of a magical season, with quite possibly their best team ever. How will he handle the feeling of disappointing his teammates, his family, and BYU nation? They went from Final Four contender to "can they get out of the first weekend" again. I hope he can overcome this and become a better man. BYU will have its own struggles to overcome this and not become a worse team. They are still a good team, but they took a big inside hit. Does the Jimmer have it in him to carry the team on his back for 4-6 NCAA Tournament games? If BYU can't stop anyone inside, would it be enough anyway?
BYU very much resembles a poor man's Big East team: all about the guard play, with one big body down low. Looking even further, BYU has essentially become a similar team to last year's team with no real inside scoring presence. The other downside is the lack of offensive rebounding and the defense BYU gets from the 4 is that much worse. At this point, BYU should be able to still secure a trip to the Sweet 16. At that point, it's all about matchups. And the chances are not good that BYU will match up well from that point on...
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Davies is Done. What About BYU?
For those of you BYU fans living under a rock, Brandon Davies was suspended for the remainder of the season for an honor code violation.
Short-Term Impact
BYU has two regular season games left. Assuming that BYU has 6 or 7 healthy guys to put out there, they should be able to win both of those games. New Mexico plays small anyway, so having an extra small guy out there may actually be somewhat helpful. Wyoming is bad and don't exactly command a lot of attention in the post anyway. Davies can do a lot of things at both ends of the floor. He rebounds well. But BYU shouldn't need what he brings to the table in these final two games. The rest of their players, including James Anderson, should be able to handle it and shoulder the load. Against these two perimeter-oriented teams, Davies could have dominated inside, but BYU can counter with more perimeter players of their own.
Medium-Term Impact
BYU will have a tough time beating SDSU, if the two meet in the MWC Final, without Davies. His stat line may not have been great this past Saturday, but he had 3 rebounds in the last 3 minutes that prevented the Aztecs from getting second chance opportunities and scoring points and potentially making a game out of it. A potential matchup against CSU in the Semifinals also gets that much trickier. James Anderson cannot even slow down the Rams big men, so BYU will need big minutes out of Logan Magnusson and Noah Hartsock.
Depth is a big concern. BYU was already thin at the 5. Davies played a lot of minutes there. Anderson can give you a few effective minutes/game. Tops. Hartsock can fill the void (and will have to). Everyone else has to slide up a spot and play more minutes. But some guys have already logged a lot of minutes this season. Certainly no one playing the 4 and 5 spots can get in foul trouble now. Anderson and Magnusson cannot just be thrown in to use up their fouls: they may need to stay out there for extended periods to give Noah a rest. No injuries can occur. At any position. The team was 7.5 deep. Now it is 6.5. If any of those 6.5 can't play every possible required minute, BYU cannot afford to play tough defense. Everybody who can score will have to pick it up, because Anderson and Magnusson cannot score, and Collinsworth and Abouo won't be as effective at the 4 (if you can call anything Collinsworth has done on offense the past month 'effective').
NCAA Tournament Impact
As far as the NCAA Tournament goes, I think the final impact of Davies' departure may actually be minimal. The teams that have multiple dominant big men were going to give BYU a problem anyway. Even with Davies, BYU may have been knocked off by superior inside play. Without him it will certainly take stellar shooting and team defense. And the Jimmer.
Davies played well at home against good big men, but wasn't nearly as dominant of a force on the road. What this really means is: BYU does not have the inside presence to beat many of the teams seeded 1st through 5th, though may still be OK against those seeded lower than that. It does reduce the possibility of a Final Four run (which, let's be honest, was probably a pretty slim possibility anyway, given that BYU was going to have to survive at least two of those higher mentioned seeds to get there), but I don't think it will impact the opportunity to get into the Sweet 16, and perhaps even the Elite Eight.
Impact on Jimmer
This could actually be a blessing in disguise for BYU's offense. Davies was a presence inside. He could score with a variety of moves, and was capable of putting up 20 every night. He could also step out and hit 10-15 footers with reasonable success. BYU cannot just put "the next guy" in and duplicate his production inside. But his presence inside also meant that there were two bodies between Jimmer and the hoop every possession. Opposing centers could camp there, waiting for Jimmer to beat his man off the dribble.
Now it opens the floor. Opposing teams 4's will have to move outside to cover the likes of Charles Abouo, Stephen Rogers, and Kyle Collinsworth. Opposing 5's will have to respect Hartsock's ability to sink the 3, so they can't get too caught up inside either. Even if teams do stay inside, it leaves Jimmer more room to get out of tight spots and fewer bodies around to clog the lane, it will probably reduce his turnovers, and it will leave capable shooters open on the outside. Hartsock can post up too (although not nearly as effectively as Davies), there just wasn't much need to with Davies out there. Though it remains to be seen how effectively he can post-up against opponent's starting big man. A lot of opposing players and coaches have talked about BYU's ability to spread you out, now that ability will be even more enhanced. What the Cougars lose in inside scoring, they may be able to make up for with Calipari-style offense (without the recruiting violations): spread the floor, shoot the 3, penetrate off the dribble.
The Team
This particular BYU team seems to rally around adverse conditions. Well, here is an opportunity to prove how tough they are mentally. Again. Can they rise to the occasion? Again? I believe they can do that, at least for the next three (easy) games. I am not sure about after that. Bonding together is nice and all, but when you don't have the horses, all of the chemistry in the world can't help you. In basketball, the size of the dog in the fight matters too, and BYU will be running out there with one fewer pitbulls. Although after watching this team against SDSU on Saturday, it's tough to argue that they will not move on from this and still be a great team.
Short-Term Impact
BYU has two regular season games left. Assuming that BYU has 6 or 7 healthy guys to put out there, they should be able to win both of those games. New Mexico plays small anyway, so having an extra small guy out there may actually be somewhat helpful. Wyoming is bad and don't exactly command a lot of attention in the post anyway. Davies can do a lot of things at both ends of the floor. He rebounds well. But BYU shouldn't need what he brings to the table in these final two games. The rest of their players, including James Anderson, should be able to handle it and shoulder the load. Against these two perimeter-oriented teams, Davies could have dominated inside, but BYU can counter with more perimeter players of their own.
Medium-Term Impact
BYU will have a tough time beating SDSU, if the two meet in the MWC Final, without Davies. His stat line may not have been great this past Saturday, but he had 3 rebounds in the last 3 minutes that prevented the Aztecs from getting second chance opportunities and scoring points and potentially making a game out of it. A potential matchup against CSU in the Semifinals also gets that much trickier. James Anderson cannot even slow down the Rams big men, so BYU will need big minutes out of Logan Magnusson and Noah Hartsock.
Depth is a big concern. BYU was already thin at the 5. Davies played a lot of minutes there. Anderson can give you a few effective minutes/game. Tops. Hartsock can fill the void (and will have to). Everyone else has to slide up a spot and play more minutes. But some guys have already logged a lot of minutes this season. Certainly no one playing the 4 and 5 spots can get in foul trouble now. Anderson and Magnusson cannot just be thrown in to use up their fouls: they may need to stay out there for extended periods to give Noah a rest. No injuries can occur. At any position. The team was 7.5 deep. Now it is 6.5. If any of those 6.5 can't play every possible required minute, BYU cannot afford to play tough defense. Everybody who can score will have to pick it up, because Anderson and Magnusson cannot score, and Collinsworth and Abouo won't be as effective at the 4 (if you can call anything Collinsworth has done on offense the past month 'effective').
NCAA Tournament Impact
As far as the NCAA Tournament goes, I think the final impact of Davies' departure may actually be minimal. The teams that have multiple dominant big men were going to give BYU a problem anyway. Even with Davies, BYU may have been knocked off by superior inside play. Without him it will certainly take stellar shooting and team defense. And the Jimmer.
Davies played well at home against good big men, but wasn't nearly as dominant of a force on the road. What this really means is: BYU does not have the inside presence to beat many of the teams seeded 1st through 5th, though may still be OK against those seeded lower than that. It does reduce the possibility of a Final Four run (which, let's be honest, was probably a pretty slim possibility anyway, given that BYU was going to have to survive at least two of those higher mentioned seeds to get there), but I don't think it will impact the opportunity to get into the Sweet 16, and perhaps even the Elite Eight.
Impact on Jimmer
This could actually be a blessing in disguise for BYU's offense. Davies was a presence inside. He could score with a variety of moves, and was capable of putting up 20 every night. He could also step out and hit 10-15 footers with reasonable success. BYU cannot just put "the next guy" in and duplicate his production inside. But his presence inside also meant that there were two bodies between Jimmer and the hoop every possession. Opposing centers could camp there, waiting for Jimmer to beat his man off the dribble.
Now it opens the floor. Opposing teams 4's will have to move outside to cover the likes of Charles Abouo, Stephen Rogers, and Kyle Collinsworth. Opposing 5's will have to respect Hartsock's ability to sink the 3, so they can't get too caught up inside either. Even if teams do stay inside, it leaves Jimmer more room to get out of tight spots and fewer bodies around to clog the lane, it will probably reduce his turnovers, and it will leave capable shooters open on the outside. Hartsock can post up too (although not nearly as effectively as Davies), there just wasn't much need to with Davies out there. Though it remains to be seen how effectively he can post-up against opponent's starting big man. A lot of opposing players and coaches have talked about BYU's ability to spread you out, now that ability will be even more enhanced. What the Cougars lose in inside scoring, they may be able to make up for with Calipari-style offense (without the recruiting violations): spread the floor, shoot the 3, penetrate off the dribble.
The Team
This particular BYU team seems to rally around adverse conditions. Well, here is an opportunity to prove how tough they are mentally. Again. Can they rise to the occasion? Again? I believe they can do that, at least for the next three (easy) games. I am not sure about after that. Bonding together is nice and all, but when you don't have the horses, all of the chemistry in the world can't help you. In basketball, the size of the dog in the fight matters too, and BYU will be running out there with one fewer pitbulls. Although after watching this team against SDSU on Saturday, it's tough to argue that they will not move on from this and still be a great team.
The Road of 1s and 2s
At one point yesterday, I was preparing a comparison of the 4 teams vying for the final two 1-seeds, because that seemed a bit important. Then Texas lost. And then there were 3. Really, it's a bit of a theoretical exercise: BYU has to beat New Mexico on Wednesday, CSU in the semifinals of the MWC Tourney, and then either UNLV on their home floor or top-10 SDSU for the third time in three tries. It would be a difficult road, despite how easy Doug Gottlieb may think it is. On one other side note: the RPI that the Selection Committee will use for determining seeds and at-large bids was finalized yesterday: BYU sat at #1.
Regular Season
Whether BYU wins out or not, the comparison really comes down to Duke and BYU. Texas is out. Pitt is most likely in. So Duke and BYU: not where they are right now, because BYU clearly has the edge, but where they could be in two weeks. BYU has 1 more regular season top-100 RPI game. Duke has a chance to play 2, Clemson at home and at North Carolina, a top-25 RPI team. Duke catches up, but I believe they still trail. BYU would still own 3 top-50 road wins. At UNC would be Duke's 1st. In addition, BYU will have 15 non-home wins in 17 games. Duke would have 12 in 15 tries.
Conference Tournament
BYU will play a team in the 200's in RPI in their first round game. Then they will play a top-100 RPI team in the Semifinals (top-50 if it's CSU), and a top 30-RPI team in the Final (top 5 if it is SDSU). Duke, in their conference tournament, will play a top-100 RPI opponent their first game, followed by two NCAA Tournament teams, barring upsets. If both teams win out, Duke will pass BYU for the 4th 1-seed. If Duke loses even once, BYU should take a 1-seed. If BYU loses even once, then reading this article was a waste of your time!
Advantage to 1 or 2?
Last season, 2-seeds actually had an easier road to the Elite Eight (where 1-seeds would meet 2-seeds) than 1-seeds. Three 10-seeds upset 7-seeds in the first round (BYU was the lone 7 to get it done) and only one 3-seed advanced to the Sweet 16. One 2-seed had to play a better opponent in the Round of 32. One 2-seed had to play a better opponent in the Sweet 16. 1-seeds played one 4, two 5s, and a 12 in the Sweet 16. Advantage 2-seeds in 2010.
In 2009 and 2008, however, all of the 3-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, so 2-seeds had a tough road. In 2007, all 7-seeds won their first round games as well. In the past 5 years, 2-seeds have faced (or would have faced if they didn't get eliminated early) only two 11-seeds, and no 14-seeds, in the Sweet 16. 1-seeds have played four 12-seeds and one 13-seed.
Numerically speaking, 70% of 2-seeds opponents in the Sweet 16 were 3-seeds, with only 10% of 11- and 14-seeds advancing that far. Compared to 35% of 1-seeds opponents being 4-seeds, 40% being 5-seeds, and 25% being 12- or 13-seeds. The road to being Elite is certainly easier being a 1-seed. That is one reason 1-seeds have a higher statistical chance of advancing farther in the NCAA Tournament than 2-seeds. The other reason is that 1-seeds are better than 2-seeds...for BYU, better a 1-seed than a 2, but in the grand scheme: by the second round you play a good opponent, and in the Sweet 16 you play a great team, period. You just have to beat the teams that are sitting on the other bench.
Regular Season
Whether BYU wins out or not, the comparison really comes down to Duke and BYU. Texas is out. Pitt is most likely in. So Duke and BYU: not where they are right now, because BYU clearly has the edge, but where they could be in two weeks. BYU has 1 more regular season top-100 RPI game. Duke has a chance to play 2, Clemson at home and at North Carolina, a top-25 RPI team. Duke catches up, but I believe they still trail. BYU would still own 3 top-50 road wins. At UNC would be Duke's 1st. In addition, BYU will have 15 non-home wins in 17 games. Duke would have 12 in 15 tries.
Conference Tournament
BYU will play a team in the 200's in RPI in their first round game. Then they will play a top-100 RPI team in the Semifinals (top-50 if it's CSU), and a top 30-RPI team in the Final (top 5 if it is SDSU). Duke, in their conference tournament, will play a top-100 RPI opponent their first game, followed by two NCAA Tournament teams, barring upsets. If both teams win out, Duke will pass BYU for the 4th 1-seed. If Duke loses even once, BYU should take a 1-seed. If BYU loses even once, then reading this article was a waste of your time!
Advantage to 1 or 2?
Last season, 2-seeds actually had an easier road to the Elite Eight (where 1-seeds would meet 2-seeds) than 1-seeds. Three 10-seeds upset 7-seeds in the first round (BYU was the lone 7 to get it done) and only one 3-seed advanced to the Sweet 16. One 2-seed had to play a better opponent in the Round of 32. One 2-seed had to play a better opponent in the Sweet 16. 1-seeds played one 4, two 5s, and a 12 in the Sweet 16. Advantage 2-seeds in 2010.
In 2009 and 2008, however, all of the 3-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, so 2-seeds had a tough road. In 2007, all 7-seeds won their first round games as well. In the past 5 years, 2-seeds have faced (or would have faced if they didn't get eliminated early) only two 11-seeds, and no 14-seeds, in the Sweet 16. 1-seeds have played four 12-seeds and one 13-seed.
Numerically speaking, 70% of 2-seeds opponents in the Sweet 16 were 3-seeds, with only 10% of 11- and 14-seeds advancing that far. Compared to 35% of 1-seeds opponents being 4-seeds, 40% being 5-seeds, and 25% being 12- or 13-seeds. The road to being Elite is certainly easier being a 1-seed. That is one reason 1-seeds have a higher statistical chance of advancing farther in the NCAA Tournament than 2-seeds. The other reason is that 1-seeds are better than 2-seeds...for BYU, better a 1-seed than a 2, but in the grand scheme: by the second round you play a good opponent, and in the Sweet 16 you play a great team, period. You just have to beat the teams that are sitting on the other bench.
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