Sorry for the late post.
New Mexico 74, Air Force 46. Air Force tries to slow you down, but they won't be able to do that to New Mexico.
UNLV 77, CSU 66. UNLV needs to right the ship ASAP if they want to make the tourney. Saturday afternoon in the Thomas & Mack against CSU sounds like as good a place as any to get that righted.
SDSU 64, Utah 56. Two of the best defensive teams in the conference, two of the worst offensive teams. This won't be pretty. It is simulcast tonight on the Mtn and CBS College Sports if you are completely bored on a Saturday night and get either of those channels.
BYU 85, Wyoming 71. Two fast-paced, up-tempo teams. It probably gets a little sloppy/frantic early on, but I anticipate BYU laying the wood on the Cowboys in the second half.
At this point BYU and New Mexico are locks for the tourney, just playing for seeding (and a conference championship). I think right now, UNLV is in and SDSU isn't. The stretch run will be crucial for both of these teams. SDSU can play itself in. UNLV can play itself out. It's margin for error is much smaller after the season sweep by Utah.
Speaking of Utah, could there be a more inconsistent team in the country? They've beaten some NCAA tournament teams (including road and neutral site wins) and lost to a few teams that may end up with single digit wins on the season. Coaching, coaching, coaching...there is talent in the program: Boylen either needs someone else to coordinate the O, or Utah needs to get someone else to run the team. Boylen has the 4th best team in the conference and he's in 6th. Last year he tied for first with the second best team (and went one and done in the NCAA tourney). Two years ago, he had the 4th best team and was 6th. Any bets on next year? With the incoming freshmen they have (will probably have the second best recruiting class in the conference), they should be a top 3 or 4 team next year (New Mexico 1, UNLV 2, BYU/SDSU/Utah 3/4/5). I'd be shocked if Boylen can get them within reach of a conference championship: but make no mistake, they are good enough next year to be in contention.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Monday, February 15, 2010
Upcoming MWC Games
Well, I didn't do so hot on my picks over the weekend. If Utah hadn't have been jobbed by the stripes in the home stretch and OT, they might have had a chance to pull off the monumental upset, and I would have looked very good in my pick. It really is inexcusable for the Utes to have a losing record. They won at UNLV, something only two other teams have done this season, and both of them are going to get top 5 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Then they lost at Wyoming. They give New Mexico and SDSU all they want at home. Then they lose by 15 to CSU at home. Coaching...just saying. Boylen sucks.
Not such an interesting week this week in the MWC: the top 4 are playing the bottom 4. At least 3 of the bottom 4 are at home and might be able to make the games interesting.
San Diego State travels to Fort Worth to take on TCU. TCU played the Aztecs tough in San Diego before finally falling in the game (and proceeding to drop 4 in a row in conference after that). TCU is playing better lately and I fully expect them to give SDSU a run for their money in this game. Both teams gained some confidence over the weekend with wins they weren't expected to get. I do like SDSU's toughness and defense. I don't like their offense and the consistency of their effort. That's why they are always a bubble team, always a 4th place MWC finisher, and always dropping a few inexplicable games during the season. San Diego pulls away late: SDSU 72, TCU 60.
New Mexico hosts Wyoming Wednesday night. I'm sure Alford will have the boys fired up after a somewhat lackluster performance at Utah and the home crowd will be rocking to welcome their top 15 Lobos home. I expect a very fast-paced game with Wyoming turning the ball over a lot against New Mexico's pressure. New Mexico 81, Wyoming 56.
Utah is either getting UNLV at the absolute best time or the absolute worst time. UNLV is coming off two consecutive double-digit losses. They are also out for revenge since Utah beat them when they played at the Thomas & Mack. Either UNLV comes out gunning, ticked about their recent losses, avenging their home loss to Utah, and fighting for their conference championship lives, or UNLV comes out flat and sulking after going from the driver's seat to the child's booster seat with their feet on the hump in the way back. My guess is the former. They are too good of a team to score 66 and 58 in consecutive games, then lose a third game in a row to a team without a winning record. Both teams D's can lock down in stretches, UNLV will probably have a few more of those stretches this game, however. UNLV 64, Utah 57.
CSU finds itself tied in the loss column for 3rd place in the conference, with BYU tied for first in the L column. Last time these two met, CSU came into the game with a high standing in the conference and feeling pretty good. After winning their last 3 this time, with 2 on the road and one against Border War Rival Wyoming, currently in quasi-3rd place, I'm sure they are feeling pretty good again. As with last time, CSU is coming off of a bye. BYU went into that last matchup coming off a blowout win over Air Force. Same thing here. The only differences really: the venue and CSU's desperation. CSU is within reach of an NIT bid and probably just needs a big win or two to get there. CSU likes to slow the pace down. BYU likes to speed the pace up. CSU has been prone to get rushed by the faster/running teams in the conference. BYU has been slowed down by the more athletic, defensive-minded teams in the conference. I'm not putting CSU in that category. Maybe next year they can move into that group. Maybe. I anticipate some difference in the result, a slightly closer matchup, perhaps, but still a blowout for the Cougars: BYU 78, CSU 59.
Not such an interesting week this week in the MWC: the top 4 are playing the bottom 4. At least 3 of the bottom 4 are at home and might be able to make the games interesting.
San Diego State travels to Fort Worth to take on TCU. TCU played the Aztecs tough in San Diego before finally falling in the game (and proceeding to drop 4 in a row in conference after that). TCU is playing better lately and I fully expect them to give SDSU a run for their money in this game. Both teams gained some confidence over the weekend with wins they weren't expected to get. I do like SDSU's toughness and defense. I don't like their offense and the consistency of their effort. That's why they are always a bubble team, always a 4th place MWC finisher, and always dropping a few inexplicable games during the season. San Diego pulls away late: SDSU 72, TCU 60.
New Mexico hosts Wyoming Wednesday night. I'm sure Alford will have the boys fired up after a somewhat lackluster performance at Utah and the home crowd will be rocking to welcome their top 15 Lobos home. I expect a very fast-paced game with Wyoming turning the ball over a lot against New Mexico's pressure. New Mexico 81, Wyoming 56.
Utah is either getting UNLV at the absolute best time or the absolute worst time. UNLV is coming off two consecutive double-digit losses. They are also out for revenge since Utah beat them when they played at the Thomas & Mack. Either UNLV comes out gunning, ticked about their recent losses, avenging their home loss to Utah, and fighting for their conference championship lives, or UNLV comes out flat and sulking after going from the driver's seat to the child's booster seat with their feet on the hump in the way back. My guess is the former. They are too good of a team to score 66 and 58 in consecutive games, then lose a third game in a row to a team without a winning record. Both teams D's can lock down in stretches, UNLV will probably have a few more of those stretches this game, however. UNLV 64, Utah 57.
CSU finds itself tied in the loss column for 3rd place in the conference, with BYU tied for first in the L column. Last time these two met, CSU came into the game with a high standing in the conference and feeling pretty good. After winning their last 3 this time, with 2 on the road and one against Border War Rival Wyoming, currently in quasi-3rd place, I'm sure they are feeling pretty good again. As with last time, CSU is coming off of a bye. BYU went into that last matchup coming off a blowout win over Air Force. Same thing here. The only differences really: the venue and CSU's desperation. CSU is within reach of an NIT bid and probably just needs a big win or two to get there. CSU likes to slow the pace down. BYU likes to speed the pace up. CSU has been prone to get rushed by the faster/running teams in the conference. BYU has been slowed down by the more athletic, defensive-minded teams in the conference. I'm not putting CSU in that category. Maybe next year they can move into that group. Maybe. I anticipate some difference in the result, a slightly closer matchup, perhaps, but still a blowout for the Cougars: BYU 78, CSU 59.
Friday, February 12, 2010
One big one, 3 others
I'm not saying there won't be any upsets tomorrow in some of the other games (in fact, quite the opposite if you keep reading), but the big game of the weekend is UNLV at SDSU. New Mexico did BYU a favor by whooping up on UNLV. UNLV might lose one more time this season, but that would be all. The Lobos UNLV-against-BYU-esque performance essentially gives the winner of the New Mexico-BYU game at least a share of the conference championship. Thanks, Lobos, for giving the Cougars control of their own destiny again.
TCU-Wyoming: two teams heading in the wrong direction. Since their last meeting, the teams have combined for a 3-13 record. With a loss, Wyoming will essentially clinch a spot in the play-in game in the conference tourney. However, I'm not sure TCU keeps up with Wyoming's pace, particularly in Laramie at 7,200 feet. Wyoming 76, TCU 64.
New Mexico-Utah: New Mexico comes in as one of the hottest teams in the country. Utah comes in having lost 3 of 4. Their season is all but done. New Mexico is trying to play its way to a possible 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament (if they won out, they would be in the mix: I don't think they'll get there though-at BYU, and having to beat two quality teams in the MWC tourney in Vegas, with one of those two likely being Vegas). The last meeting was a 17-point beatdown in the Pit. New Mexico hasn't scored less than 70 since the beginning of January. Utah hasn't scored more than 70 in nearly a month, and that was against the 9th place team in the MWC. Utah has no chance. For whatever reason, though, these are the games they somehow seem to win: which just makes you wonder how different their season would be if they had a good coach. Utah 71, New Mexico 65. The enigma that is Utah basketball continues.
UNLV-San Diego State: UNLV came back down to earth Wednesday against New Mexico after the amazing shooting game they had against BYU last Saturday. That's what happens: stats and averages really don't lie, if you aren't a good shooting team you'll have a bad game after having a good game. SDSU is also playing really well right now. They nearly pulled off a shocker at the Pit last weekend, losing by 2 in OT. They dominated Air Force, Wyoming, and CSU (not the best of competition, but winning 3 conference games by an average of nearly 20 is tough no matter what). This one should be a barn-burner (it's on Versus at 1pm Pacific, 2 Mountain, 4 Eastern: check this game out, it will be a physical game with a lot of athletic moves and plays). UNLV has a history of playing big in road games against the Big Three, and this definitely qualifies. They also have a history of losing at least 4 MWC games. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them win this game and follow it up with a loss at Utah. Again, they have a history of playing big in these types of road games. If they get running early, they'll run away with it, maybe a 10-12 point win. I think they start quicker than SDSU, but won't establish enough of a lead to pull it out. SDSU 74, UNLV 69. UNLV won't lose again this season: too many home games, too many weak opponents. Their stay in the top 25 wasn't very long!
Air Force-BYU: Lamont Morgan is out, for how long, no one has said. This will be a good opportunity for Michael Loyd to get some minutes. The bye came at a good time for BYU as well: Haws needed a rest (that darn freshman wall), Jackson Emery needed to ponder his shot selection, Tavernari needed to establish himself again as one of the greatest 6th men in America, and Jimmer needed to take a step back and refocus for the home stretch. Davies should be back next week. I think they can build some momentum starting this game, then with road games at CSU and Wyoming next week. Air Force is just plain terrible. Air Force's lone MWC win was a home game against 8th place Wyoming, by seven. They have had some reasonably close games against the bottom half of the conference but have been consistently blown out by the top half, especially on the road. They do a decent job of forcing people into slow starts and making them adjust to their style of play. However, I think BYU comes out gunning and never looks back: the second half of the last game, they had the Falcons figured out. Air Force will be the team unable to adjust, as BYU's style of play dominates this game. They won't even know what hit them. BYU 75, Air Force 48.
TCU-Wyoming: two teams heading in the wrong direction. Since their last meeting, the teams have combined for a 3-13 record. With a loss, Wyoming will essentially clinch a spot in the play-in game in the conference tourney. However, I'm not sure TCU keeps up with Wyoming's pace, particularly in Laramie at 7,200 feet. Wyoming 76, TCU 64.
New Mexico-Utah: New Mexico comes in as one of the hottest teams in the country. Utah comes in having lost 3 of 4. Their season is all but done. New Mexico is trying to play its way to a possible 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament (if they won out, they would be in the mix: I don't think they'll get there though-at BYU, and having to beat two quality teams in the MWC tourney in Vegas, with one of those two likely being Vegas). The last meeting was a 17-point beatdown in the Pit. New Mexico hasn't scored less than 70 since the beginning of January. Utah hasn't scored more than 70 in nearly a month, and that was against the 9th place team in the MWC. Utah has no chance. For whatever reason, though, these are the games they somehow seem to win: which just makes you wonder how different their season would be if they had a good coach. Utah 71, New Mexico 65. The enigma that is Utah basketball continues.
UNLV-San Diego State: UNLV came back down to earth Wednesday against New Mexico after the amazing shooting game they had against BYU last Saturday. That's what happens: stats and averages really don't lie, if you aren't a good shooting team you'll have a bad game after having a good game. SDSU is also playing really well right now. They nearly pulled off a shocker at the Pit last weekend, losing by 2 in OT. They dominated Air Force, Wyoming, and CSU (not the best of competition, but winning 3 conference games by an average of nearly 20 is tough no matter what). This one should be a barn-burner (it's on Versus at 1pm Pacific, 2 Mountain, 4 Eastern: check this game out, it will be a physical game with a lot of athletic moves and plays). UNLV has a history of playing big in road games against the Big Three, and this definitely qualifies. They also have a history of losing at least 4 MWC games. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them win this game and follow it up with a loss at Utah. Again, they have a history of playing big in these types of road games. If they get running early, they'll run away with it, maybe a 10-12 point win. I think they start quicker than SDSU, but won't establish enough of a lead to pull it out. SDSU 74, UNLV 69. UNLV won't lose again this season: too many home games, too many weak opponents. Their stay in the top 25 wasn't very long!
Air Force-BYU: Lamont Morgan is out, for how long, no one has said. This will be a good opportunity for Michael Loyd to get some minutes. The bye came at a good time for BYU as well: Haws needed a rest (that darn freshman wall), Jackson Emery needed to ponder his shot selection, Tavernari needed to establish himself again as one of the greatest 6th men in America, and Jimmer needed to take a step back and refocus for the home stretch. Davies should be back next week. I think they can build some momentum starting this game, then with road games at CSU and Wyoming next week. Air Force is just plain terrible. Air Force's lone MWC win was a home game against 8th place Wyoming, by seven. They have had some reasonably close games against the bottom half of the conference but have been consistently blown out by the top half, especially on the road. They do a decent job of forcing people into slow starts and making them adjust to their style of play. However, I think BYU comes out gunning and never looks back: the second half of the last game, they had the Falcons figured out. Air Force will be the team unable to adjust, as BYU's style of play dominates this game. They won't even know what hit them. BYU 75, Air Force 48.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Pac 10 Expansion
Well, the annual Pac 10 expansion conversation is upon us. This time the Pac 10 went the other way in discussion, however: "we will look into expansion." I will make the case for the possible players (the top 3 are in the order I consider the likelihood of the schools joining the Pac 10-after the top 3, it gets amazingly less likely so it's tough to rank):
Utah:
Pros: Good academics, but not great. Medical facilities are on par with USC and exceed Arizona (5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program). Pretty good law and engineering graduate programs. 2 BCS wins, more than the entire Pac 10 combined, minus USC. They sport a winning record against the Pac 10 under Kyle Whittingham. Several recent trips to the NCAA tournament as an at-large (huge because the Pac 10 likely won't have any at-large teams this year!), and have advanced to the Sweet 16 twice in this decade. Solid Women's Gymnastics, Soccer, and Volleyball programs. Salt Lake is a decent-size TV market, though the Utes are about the 3rd biggest draw for sports in the market behind the Jazz and the Cougars.
Cons: Business school stinks with job placement around 50%. Hoops are so up and down, and since Majerus left they have not been a national force, though they have had years at the top of the Mountain West. Several 3rd and 4th place finishes in the MWC the past 5 years in football (and some even lower in hoops). It would seem they are probably a package deal: you take them you might have to take BYU. Stadium is small, though several Pac 10 schools have a smaller stadium.
Colorado:
Pros: Pretty stinking good academics. They have a rich tradition in football, with a Heisman trophy winner, National Championship, etc. Good stadium size, solid attendance, and a decent TV draw in Denver (like Utah, however, they are not at the top of the list by any means). CU may want to leave the Big 12 and start afresh with a fertile California recruiting ground (I don't think you can overstate how big of a plus it is that they are in the Big 12: if you can get a BCS team to defect, that beats taking a non-BCS team and trying to get them up to a BCS level).
Cons: Pretty stinking athletics. Past tradition has not translated into current excellence. Colorado did not get a single recruit that was rated one of Colorado's top 10 high school players. They don't open up a good recruiting base for the Pac 10, they merely expand their presence to east of the Rockies (barely).
BYU:
Pros: decent academics. Their business and law graduate programs are well-respected. They need help in engineering, but it is a well-financed program. Athletics are well-established. They have great Olympic sports, decent golf, baseball, and women's sports. Football would be a boost to the current Pac 10. Basketball would be a boost to the current Pac 10. Stadiums are large and they fill them. Attendance ranks among the highest in the west: factor in playing conference games against Pac 10 opponents instead of MWC opponents and they would rank the highest in basketball in the west. National fan-base. Salt Lake market.
Cons: not a research-oriented university. There are some "censorship" issues that some Pac 10 schools wouldn't like. The conservative values and unwillingness to compromise on those that may cause some issues to Pac 10 presidents. Basically, their Mormon-ness makes them a bad cultural fit with Cal-Berkeley, Oregon, etc. No medical school (not really an issue: 5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program and 1 has a crappy medical program: Arizona). Some Pac 10 sports occasionally play on Sundays (baseball and some Olympic sports, with an occasional basketball game) and BYU does not ever play on Sundays. The inability to win big games in sports might be a down-side: no NCAA tourney wins in 17 years and an abysmal record against ranked opponents in football over the past decade.
TCU:
Pros: Texas team. Texas recruits. Texas exposure. Did I mention TCU plays home games in Fort Worth, which is in Texas? Very wealthy institution, with good academics, and a stellar football program. The other sports lag behind somewhat, but if they give the Pac 10 an "in" in Texas, that could/would be overlooked.
Cons: Poor sports besides football and women's basketball. Small following. Not amazingly prestigious in anything.
Texas Tech:
Pros: see the pros of TCU and being in Texas. Add to that the fact that Texas Tech is a Big 12 school, and that would be an amazing coupe. If I were Tech, I'd certainly want to exit the Big 12 South! Decent academics, but not spectacular.
Cons: nothing real spectacular about them. They are in the middle of nowhere in Texas. So you have to travel all the way to Texas and then drive 4 hours into the Texas desert...I don't care if you live in Pullman, Washington, that sounds more like the start of a horror film than a conference road game...
New Mexico:
Pros: well, they are only considered if TCU or Texas Tech are picked and need a "rival" in conference. They are a good academic school. Sports are OK. Basketball is more than OK. If they come as a package with TCU, the Pac 10 would extend unimpeded from the Pacific Ocean to Dallas.
Cons: they don't stand individually. No major revenue, market, recruiting base, etc. Like I said: they aren't bad in a package deal with a Texas school.
CSU:
See New Mexico, except change TCU to CU. They would be a good package deal with the Buffaloes. Solid academics mixed with below-solid athletics: a lot of similarities to the current state of the Washington-Washington State package.
San Diego State:
Pros: San Diego is a big market and a beautiful place to play a conference road game in January.
Cons: nobody cares about SDSU in San Diego. The Pac 10 recruiting already dominates San Diego. The other-non-California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school. The California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school to compete against in recruiting. Academics are poor. Fan are religious bigots.
UNLV, Nevada, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force are probably all no's. For BYU fans, the expansion may result in BYU joining a BCS conference, but might not be the Pac 10. Like I said, they are probably third on the list (maybe even lower). Mizzou to the Big 10, CU to the Pac 10, and suddenly BYU becomes a good option for the Big 12...
I think a lot of schools have a plus or two, but all of them come with more than a minus or two. I believe that is the reason that the Pac 10 has not expanded already: they can't find two teams that they want to add, that want to join, that all 10 schools would approve of. BYU-Utah is the obvious combination, but they aren't exactly perfect fits. Unless they are absolutely forced into expanding, I'm not sure they will. If they do, I'm not sure they will make the right decision on whom to pick anyway. It should be exciting to see how the next 12 months play out with Big Ten, Pac 10 expansion, and how the dominoes fall with the Big 12 and MWC (and possibly the Big East).
Utah:
Pros: Good academics, but not great. Medical facilities are on par with USC and exceed Arizona (5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program). Pretty good law and engineering graduate programs. 2 BCS wins, more than the entire Pac 10 combined, minus USC. They sport a winning record against the Pac 10 under Kyle Whittingham. Several recent trips to the NCAA tournament as an at-large (huge because the Pac 10 likely won't have any at-large teams this year!), and have advanced to the Sweet 16 twice in this decade. Solid Women's Gymnastics, Soccer, and Volleyball programs. Salt Lake is a decent-size TV market, though the Utes are about the 3rd biggest draw for sports in the market behind the Jazz and the Cougars.
Cons: Business school stinks with job placement around 50%. Hoops are so up and down, and since Majerus left they have not been a national force, though they have had years at the top of the Mountain West. Several 3rd and 4th place finishes in the MWC the past 5 years in football (and some even lower in hoops). It would seem they are probably a package deal: you take them you might have to take BYU. Stadium is small, though several Pac 10 schools have a smaller stadium.
Colorado:
Pros: Pretty stinking good academics. They have a rich tradition in football, with a Heisman trophy winner, National Championship, etc. Good stadium size, solid attendance, and a decent TV draw in Denver (like Utah, however, they are not at the top of the list by any means). CU may want to leave the Big 12 and start afresh with a fertile California recruiting ground (I don't think you can overstate how big of a plus it is that they are in the Big 12: if you can get a BCS team to defect, that beats taking a non-BCS team and trying to get them up to a BCS level).
Cons: Pretty stinking athletics. Past tradition has not translated into current excellence. Colorado did not get a single recruit that was rated one of Colorado's top 10 high school players. They don't open up a good recruiting base for the Pac 10, they merely expand their presence to east of the Rockies (barely).
BYU:
Pros: decent academics. Their business and law graduate programs are well-respected. They need help in engineering, but it is a well-financed program. Athletics are well-established. They have great Olympic sports, decent golf, baseball, and women's sports. Football would be a boost to the current Pac 10. Basketball would be a boost to the current Pac 10. Stadiums are large and they fill them. Attendance ranks among the highest in the west: factor in playing conference games against Pac 10 opponents instead of MWC opponents and they would rank the highest in basketball in the west. National fan-base. Salt Lake market.
Cons: not a research-oriented university. There are some "censorship" issues that some Pac 10 schools wouldn't like. The conservative values and unwillingness to compromise on those that may cause some issues to Pac 10 presidents. Basically, their Mormon-ness makes them a bad cultural fit with Cal-Berkeley, Oregon, etc. No medical school (not really an issue: 5 Pac 10 schools have no medical program and 1 has a crappy medical program: Arizona). Some Pac 10 sports occasionally play on Sundays (baseball and some Olympic sports, with an occasional basketball game) and BYU does not ever play on Sundays. The inability to win big games in sports might be a down-side: no NCAA tourney wins in 17 years and an abysmal record against ranked opponents in football over the past decade.
TCU:
Pros: Texas team. Texas recruits. Texas exposure. Did I mention TCU plays home games in Fort Worth, which is in Texas? Very wealthy institution, with good academics, and a stellar football program. The other sports lag behind somewhat, but if they give the Pac 10 an "in" in Texas, that could/would be overlooked.
Cons: Poor sports besides football and women's basketball. Small following. Not amazingly prestigious in anything.
Texas Tech:
Pros: see the pros of TCU and being in Texas. Add to that the fact that Texas Tech is a Big 12 school, and that would be an amazing coupe. If I were Tech, I'd certainly want to exit the Big 12 South! Decent academics, but not spectacular.
Cons: nothing real spectacular about them. They are in the middle of nowhere in Texas. So you have to travel all the way to Texas and then drive 4 hours into the Texas desert...I don't care if you live in Pullman, Washington, that sounds more like the start of a horror film than a conference road game...
New Mexico:
Pros: well, they are only considered if TCU or Texas Tech are picked and need a "rival" in conference. They are a good academic school. Sports are OK. Basketball is more than OK. If they come as a package with TCU, the Pac 10 would extend unimpeded from the Pacific Ocean to Dallas.
Cons: they don't stand individually. No major revenue, market, recruiting base, etc. Like I said: they aren't bad in a package deal with a Texas school.
CSU:
See New Mexico, except change TCU to CU. They would be a good package deal with the Buffaloes. Solid academics mixed with below-solid athletics: a lot of similarities to the current state of the Washington-Washington State package.
San Diego State:
Pros: San Diego is a big market and a beautiful place to play a conference road game in January.
Cons: nobody cares about SDSU in San Diego. The Pac 10 recruiting already dominates San Diego. The other-non-California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school. The California schools probably don't want ANOTHER California school to compete against in recruiting. Academics are poor. Fan are religious bigots.
UNLV, Nevada, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force are probably all no's. For BYU fans, the expansion may result in BYU joining a BCS conference, but might not be the Pac 10. Like I said, they are probably third on the list (maybe even lower). Mizzou to the Big 10, CU to the Pac 10, and suddenly BYU becomes a good option for the Big 12...
I think a lot of schools have a plus or two, but all of them come with more than a minus or two. I believe that is the reason that the Pac 10 has not expanded already: they can't find two teams that they want to add, that want to join, that all 10 schools would approve of. BYU-Utah is the obvious combination, but they aren't exactly perfect fits. Unless they are absolutely forced into expanding, I'm not sure they will. If they do, I'm not sure they will make the right decision on whom to pick anyway. It should be exciting to see how the next 12 months play out with Big Ten, Pac 10 expansion, and how the dominoes fall with the Big 12 and MWC (and possibly the Big East).
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
BYU's 2010 Non-Conference Schedule
Well, BYU officially announced it's non-conference schedule for next football season. There were no surprises, which is always a good thing. A few years back Nevada surprised them, so, they'll take no surprises this year.
Week 1: Washington
Week 3: at Florida State
Week 4: Nevada
Week 5: at Utah State
As far as the conference schedule is concerned, theoretically, they have 4 home and 4 road games as follows:
Road:
Air Force
Colorado State
TCU
Utah
Home:
UNLV
Wyoming
San Diego State
New Mexico
A few side notes about the schedule: in week 2, BYU will either play against UNLV, at Air Force, or have a bye. UNLV and Air Force are the only two MWC teams that don't have an opponent slated for the second week of the season. All other teams have non-conference games scheduled that week.
TCU-BYU seem to always meet around mid-October, I would anticipate a similar scheduling of this year's game. Obviously, Utah-BYU is the second-to-last Saturday of the season, as has been the case forever. I would anticipate homecoming to be the second Saturday in October against SDSU or Wyoming (more likely SDSU), sandwiched between road games at Utah State and TCU.
Week 1: Washington
Week 3: at Florida State
Week 4: Nevada
Week 5: at Utah State
As far as the conference schedule is concerned, theoretically, they have 4 home and 4 road games as follows:
Road:
Air Force
Colorado State
TCU
Utah
Home:
UNLV
Wyoming
San Diego State
New Mexico
A few side notes about the schedule: in week 2, BYU will either play against UNLV, at Air Force, or have a bye. UNLV and Air Force are the only two MWC teams that don't have an opponent slated for the second week of the season. All other teams have non-conference games scheduled that week.
TCU-BYU seem to always meet around mid-October, I would anticipate a similar scheduling of this year's game. Obviously, Utah-BYU is the second-to-last Saturday of the season, as has been the case forever. I would anticipate homecoming to be the second Saturday in October against SDSU or Wyoming (more likely SDSU), sandwiched between road games at Utah State and TCU.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Saturday, February 6 MWC games (and more)
TCU over Air Force: 58-50. These are two teams that will in all likelihood remain in the bottom third of the league. There isn't much depth, maybe even less talent, and teams that can lose at home as easily as on the road.
CSU over Wyoming: 70-60. Two very contrasting styles: CSU likes to slow the pace down, walk it up the court, grind it out in the halfcourt; Wyoming likes to run, forces you to run by pressing, and takes shots early in the shot clock. It will be interesting to see which one actually plays out: I do anticipate CSU to win, b/c they are playing better basketball right now. The win at the Huntsman Center this week should give them confidence going into this game. They won at Wyoming the first time through conference play.
New Mexico over SDSU: 76-62. There probably isn't a hotter team in the league right now that New Mexico. They had a bye on Wednesday to allow them to get rested, healthy, and prepared for this showdown in Albuquerque. The Pit should be rocking again. SDSU just hasn't found itself yet, in my opinion. They are playing well as individuals, but they just seem to be missing that team chemistry. On the road, in this league, you cannot have that and expect to win: that's why they lost at Wyoming.
UNLV over BYU: 73-68. Before this week's game, I thought BYU would pull this one out. After watching BYU play well, but not phenomenal, against TCU (with similar performances the previous two weeks), and watching UNLV clicking on all cylinders against Wyoming, I have to give the edge to UNLV. I certainly am a lot more confident BYU can win THIS game against UNLV than any game against the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack in a long time. They will need several guys to play big for this game, particularly Hartsock and Tavernari to establish an inside presence, but Emery's 3-point shooting and Haws ability to get to the basket and shoot the mid-range jumper can take some of the pressure off of Jimmer. They will need that. If they can build an early lead, they win the game. If they get behind in the game and UNLV gets behind the crowd, it's going to be an uphill battle. With all that said, this is going to be a GREAT game.
My thoughts on the second half of conference play:
BYU will lose a maximum of 3 conference games.
UNLV and New Mexico will lose a minimum of 3 conference games.
Prediction: BYU wins the conference championship, maybe in a tie, maybe outright, but they will win it.
UNLV SHOULD finish ahead of New Mexico. UNLV gets two of the big three at home, New Mexico gets two of them on the road. The standings after this weekend will very likely be the standings at the end of the season.
Final Order:
BYU-I don't see how they lose more than 2 down the stretch, which should be enough for a conference championship: tournament-bound
UNLV-they survived a game in the Pit, no reason to think they won't beat UNM in the standings either: tournament-bound
New Mexico-they are prone to struggle on the road and travel to UNLV and BYU: tournament-bound
SDSU-tough games at New Mexico and at BYU, already two games out of first which is insurmountable given their road schedule: NIT-bound
CSU-on a roll, and coming to an easy stretch their schedule: might have a shot for the NIT, more likely to be a CIT team
Utah-should be able to take the bye this weekend and regroup, if not, they may fall behind TCU: no post-season
TCU-just haven't shown much this year for the veteran group they are: no post-season
Air Force-they have been competitive in a lot more games this year than they were last year, maybe that'll be enough to finish ahead of Wyoming: either way, they are playing in the play-in game of the conference tournament: no post-season
Wyoming-they lost to Air Force, they haven't won a road game yet and they play at SDSU, at New Mexico, and at UNLV in the back half of the schedule: no post-season
The only deviation in the second half that I see is Air Force surrounding the wagons and Wyoming falling off of the wagon. Conference tournament has no upsets in the first round. Second round will have 2 great games: BYU-SDSU and UNM-UNLV. Championship game pits New Mexico against BYU, with Jimmer winning or losing the championship game in the final minute. I say win it: they get a 3-seed in the NCAAs. Lose it: 5-seed. Take those ultra long-term predictions for what they are worth.
CSU over Wyoming: 70-60. Two very contrasting styles: CSU likes to slow the pace down, walk it up the court, grind it out in the halfcourt; Wyoming likes to run, forces you to run by pressing, and takes shots early in the shot clock. It will be interesting to see which one actually plays out: I do anticipate CSU to win, b/c they are playing better basketball right now. The win at the Huntsman Center this week should give them confidence going into this game. They won at Wyoming the first time through conference play.
New Mexico over SDSU: 76-62. There probably isn't a hotter team in the league right now that New Mexico. They had a bye on Wednesday to allow them to get rested, healthy, and prepared for this showdown in Albuquerque. The Pit should be rocking again. SDSU just hasn't found itself yet, in my opinion. They are playing well as individuals, but they just seem to be missing that team chemistry. On the road, in this league, you cannot have that and expect to win: that's why they lost at Wyoming.
UNLV over BYU: 73-68. Before this week's game, I thought BYU would pull this one out. After watching BYU play well, but not phenomenal, against TCU (with similar performances the previous two weeks), and watching UNLV clicking on all cylinders against Wyoming, I have to give the edge to UNLV. I certainly am a lot more confident BYU can win THIS game against UNLV than any game against the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack in a long time. They will need several guys to play big for this game, particularly Hartsock and Tavernari to establish an inside presence, but Emery's 3-point shooting and Haws ability to get to the basket and shoot the mid-range jumper can take some of the pressure off of Jimmer. They will need that. If they can build an early lead, they win the game. If they get behind in the game and UNLV gets behind the crowd, it's going to be an uphill battle. With all that said, this is going to be a GREAT game.
My thoughts on the second half of conference play:
BYU will lose a maximum of 3 conference games.
UNLV and New Mexico will lose a minimum of 3 conference games.
Prediction: BYU wins the conference championship, maybe in a tie, maybe outright, but they will win it.
UNLV SHOULD finish ahead of New Mexico. UNLV gets two of the big three at home, New Mexico gets two of them on the road. The standings after this weekend will very likely be the standings at the end of the season.
Final Order:
BYU-I don't see how they lose more than 2 down the stretch, which should be enough for a conference championship: tournament-bound
UNLV-they survived a game in the Pit, no reason to think they won't beat UNM in the standings either: tournament-bound
New Mexico-they are prone to struggle on the road and travel to UNLV and BYU: tournament-bound
SDSU-tough games at New Mexico and at BYU, already two games out of first which is insurmountable given their road schedule: NIT-bound
CSU-on a roll, and coming to an easy stretch their schedule: might have a shot for the NIT, more likely to be a CIT team
Utah-should be able to take the bye this weekend and regroup, if not, they may fall behind TCU: no post-season
TCU-just haven't shown much this year for the veteran group they are: no post-season
Air Force-they have been competitive in a lot more games this year than they were last year, maybe that'll be enough to finish ahead of Wyoming: either way, they are playing in the play-in game of the conference tournament: no post-season
Wyoming-they lost to Air Force, they haven't won a road game yet and they play at SDSU, at New Mexico, and at UNLV in the back half of the schedule: no post-season
The only deviation in the second half that I see is Air Force surrounding the wagons and Wyoming falling off of the wagon. Conference tournament has no upsets in the first round. Second round will have 2 great games: BYU-SDSU and UNM-UNLV. Championship game pits New Mexico against BYU, with Jimmer winning or losing the championship game in the final minute. I say win it: they get a 3-seed in the NCAAs. Lose it: 5-seed. Take those ultra long-term predictions for what they are worth.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Toughest MWC Venues
Well, with the first half of conference play over, here's a look at the toughest places to play in the conference.
BYU's Marriott Center: how can you argue against a perfect 13-0 home record? Even further, in Dave Rose's 5 seasons at the helm, only one single, solitary conference opponent has defeated BYU in the Marriott Center (last year, UNLV). That is dominance. As Coach Marty Fletcher says: they don't leave a mint on your pillow at this Marriott Center...sorry about that Mtn Network reference.
New Mexico's Pit: for opponents it seems more like the armpit. It's loud, it's nasty, the fans are right on top of the court, and when it's rocking, MWC opponents would prefer to not come a-knocking. New Mexico's lone home loss this season came at the hands of the most athletic and deep team in the MWC: UNLV. BYU almost stole a victory from them as well. UNM is as close to unbeatable as a coach could hope to be in "The Pit."
San Diego State's Cox Arena (I know it's not called that anymore, but it'll always be Cox Arena, just like Division I-AA/FCS): SDSU and Coach Fischer rarely lose at home. BYU has won there twice in a row, but they are about the only team in the league that has solved the mystery.
UNLV's Thomas & Mack Center: I think this is a tougher place to win because of how good UNLV is. However, MWC teams have a greater familiarity with the arena than any other place b/c the conference tournament is played here. In an MWC conference tournament final, this is as tough a venue as there is, but for a regular season home game, I give the difficulty edge to SDSU. And honestly, anyone who loses on their home floor to Utah THIS YEAR, can't have that great of a homecourt...50 points, at home, against CSU.
CSU's Moby Arena: CSU has amassed an 8-2 record at Moby this season. The only losses to this point are to teams in the top half of the conference. They haven't beaten any great teams at home, but they took Montana, Colorado, and Denver down (two in-state "rivals" and a traditionally decent Big Sky program). They also gave UNLV and SDSU some trouble at home, something they will not even come close to doing on the road.
TCU's Daniel-Meyer Coliseum: TCU has zero wins at home against teams with winning records. The best win is Wyoming. However, the worst loss was to Northern Colorado, who may very well end up winning the Big Sky and is currently a top 100 RPI team. The fact that they haven't lost to anybody bad is what allows me to put them ahead of Utah. This year at least. As with Wyoming, they have a pretty crummy team and still have a winning record at home. TCU's road record is 1-8.
Wyoming's Arena-Auditorium (AA): while this may not appear to be as difficult a place to play based on wins and losses, but when you factor in how poor of a team Wyoming is and how they have performed at home, it makes some sense to have them ahead of Utah. They beat two teams ahead of them in the MWC standings at home (SDSU and Utah), and had New Mexico on the ropes. Now consider this is a team that lost to Air Force, Denver, Hampton, Monmouth, and South Dakota State: 6 teams outside the top 150 in RPI (though several of those games were at home). That's a bad team to be putting up such a fight at home. Really, I should probably put them in a tie with Utah and see how the rest of the season plays out, but I'm going to take a few shots at Boylen's Runnin' Utes, because I am very much not a Boylen fan. He has way too talented a team to be sub .500, in 6th place in the conference, with 6 home losses (2 in conference when they haven't even played the 3 best teams in the Huntsman Center yet!).
Utah's Jon M. Huntsman Center: this is probably the most debatable placement of a team in the conference. After all, they beat Utah State at home and played SDSU and Oklahoma well before falling in nailbiters. But I look at the losses and the point margins. They have lost at home to 4 teams that won't even make the NIT. And 2 of those losses were by double digits. They lost to Idaho and Seattle. Last night was the icing on the cake for me. A 15-point loss in a battle for 5th place in the MWC in front of 8,000 fans (and watching the game, they must have counted everyone twice...). It's the eighth time this year they haven't even been able to score 70 points in their own building. In 13 games!
Air Force's Clune Arena: just a few short years ago this place was impossible to win at. It was one of the toughest places in the nation to win. I think they went 3 years without losing a home game. Section 8 was one of the greatest student sections west of the Mississippi. This year, they have lost to every team in the top 200 of the RPI at home. I suppose I should consider that all of their wins this season are at home, with the exception of 1 neutral site win. But come on, they have lost by over 20 points twice, and by 18 another time. They have lost at home by double digits nearly as many times as they have won at home by double digits. There is no advantage here: it allows them to beat teams that they are even with or better than, but it can't keep them close when they play a team better than them.
How would you order MWC venues in terms of difficulty to win road games?
BYU's Marriott Center: how can you argue against a perfect 13-0 home record? Even further, in Dave Rose's 5 seasons at the helm, only one single, solitary conference opponent has defeated BYU in the Marriott Center (last year, UNLV). That is dominance. As Coach Marty Fletcher says: they don't leave a mint on your pillow at this Marriott Center...sorry about that Mtn Network reference.
New Mexico's Pit: for opponents it seems more like the armpit. It's loud, it's nasty, the fans are right on top of the court, and when it's rocking, MWC opponents would prefer to not come a-knocking. New Mexico's lone home loss this season came at the hands of the most athletic and deep team in the MWC: UNLV. BYU almost stole a victory from them as well. UNM is as close to unbeatable as a coach could hope to be in "The Pit."
San Diego State's Cox Arena (I know it's not called that anymore, but it'll always be Cox Arena, just like Division I-AA/FCS): SDSU and Coach Fischer rarely lose at home. BYU has won there twice in a row, but they are about the only team in the league that has solved the mystery.
UNLV's Thomas & Mack Center: I think this is a tougher place to win because of how good UNLV is. However, MWC teams have a greater familiarity with the arena than any other place b/c the conference tournament is played here. In an MWC conference tournament final, this is as tough a venue as there is, but for a regular season home game, I give the difficulty edge to SDSU. And honestly, anyone who loses on their home floor to Utah THIS YEAR, can't have that great of a homecourt...50 points, at home, against CSU.
CSU's Moby Arena: CSU has amassed an 8-2 record at Moby this season. The only losses to this point are to teams in the top half of the conference. They haven't beaten any great teams at home, but they took Montana, Colorado, and Denver down (two in-state "rivals" and a traditionally decent Big Sky program). They also gave UNLV and SDSU some trouble at home, something they will not even come close to doing on the road.
TCU's Daniel-Meyer Coliseum: TCU has zero wins at home against teams with winning records. The best win is Wyoming. However, the worst loss was to Northern Colorado, who may very well end up winning the Big Sky and is currently a top 100 RPI team. The fact that they haven't lost to anybody bad is what allows me to put them ahead of Utah. This year at least. As with Wyoming, they have a pretty crummy team and still have a winning record at home. TCU's road record is 1-8.
Wyoming's Arena-Auditorium (AA): while this may not appear to be as difficult a place to play based on wins and losses, but when you factor in how poor of a team Wyoming is and how they have performed at home, it makes some sense to have them ahead of Utah. They beat two teams ahead of them in the MWC standings at home (SDSU and Utah), and had New Mexico on the ropes. Now consider this is a team that lost to Air Force, Denver, Hampton, Monmouth, and South Dakota State: 6 teams outside the top 150 in RPI (though several of those games were at home). That's a bad team to be putting up such a fight at home. Really, I should probably put them in a tie with Utah and see how the rest of the season plays out, but I'm going to take a few shots at Boylen's Runnin' Utes, because I am very much not a Boylen fan. He has way too talented a team to be sub .500, in 6th place in the conference, with 6 home losses (2 in conference when they haven't even played the 3 best teams in the Huntsman Center yet!).
Utah's Jon M. Huntsman Center: this is probably the most debatable placement of a team in the conference. After all, they beat Utah State at home and played SDSU and Oklahoma well before falling in nailbiters. But I look at the losses and the point margins. They have lost at home to 4 teams that won't even make the NIT. And 2 of those losses were by double digits. They lost to Idaho and Seattle. Last night was the icing on the cake for me. A 15-point loss in a battle for 5th place in the MWC in front of 8,000 fans (and watching the game, they must have counted everyone twice...). It's the eighth time this year they haven't even been able to score 70 points in their own building. In 13 games!
Air Force's Clune Arena: just a few short years ago this place was impossible to win at. It was one of the toughest places in the nation to win. I think they went 3 years without losing a home game. Section 8 was one of the greatest student sections west of the Mississippi. This year, they have lost to every team in the top 200 of the RPI at home. I suppose I should consider that all of their wins this season are at home, with the exception of 1 neutral site win. But come on, they have lost by over 20 points twice, and by 18 another time. They have lost at home by double digits nearly as many times as they have won at home by double digits. There is no advantage here: it allows them to beat teams that they are even with or better than, but it can't keep them close when they play a team better than them.
How would you order MWC venues in terms of difficulty to win road games?
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Bad night for Mo-zer
Well, tonight the quality prognostication came to an end. The long streak of good picks was bound to miss a beat eventually. I vastly overestimated Utah. Come on, 50 points in a single game. At home. Against the 5th place team in the MWC. Jimmer can practically do that by himself. On the road. Against the 1st place team in the Pac-10.
UNLV was also a little bit more dominant over Wyoming than I thought. The game, however, was still enough to wear them down somewhat and give BYU a definite freshness edge come Saturday. Wyoming makes you run the whole game. They full-court press you on D and run the fast break offense on the other end. At some points during the game it looked like a "suicide" drill with all the up-backs they were doing. Unfortunately for BYU, the game was only in doubt for about 30 minutes before the Rebels stretched the lead to 20. Still, UNLV won't get home from Laramie until late, late Wednesday night, maybe early, early Thursday morning. BYU, on the other hand, took today off and will practice tomorrow. UNLV relies on their energy and, at home, on the energy of the crowd. Should be a good one.
UNLV was also a little bit more dominant over Wyoming than I thought. The game, however, was still enough to wear them down somewhat and give BYU a definite freshness edge come Saturday. Wyoming makes you run the whole game. They full-court press you on D and run the fast break offense on the other end. At some points during the game it looked like a "suicide" drill with all the up-backs they were doing. Unfortunately for BYU, the game was only in doubt for about 30 minutes before the Rebels stretched the lead to 20. Still, UNLV won't get home from Laramie until late, late Wednesday night, maybe early, early Thursday morning. BYU, on the other hand, took today off and will practice tomorrow. UNLV relies on their energy and, at home, on the energy of the crowd. Should be a good one.
A Guest Commentary on the BYU Recruiting Luncheon
This year is one of, if not the, best football recruiting class in the history of BYU. There were several noteworthy things about the class, but my favorite part was: no surprises. My father attended the luncheon, highlighting the class. Here are his notes from the meeting:
I just returned from a Cougar Club luncheon at the stadium; easily 500 people there. After a nice lunch we had a film showing each recruit's highlight plays. Coach Mendenhall spoke for about half an hour and then Coach Tidwell (head of recruiting) answered questions for another half hour. None of the recruits were there, although four of them are in school.
Having attended three of these I noticed the differences immediately. First of all, with 11 wins and an impressive bowl victory over a good Pac 10 team the enthusiasm in the room was at a high level. You could feel the excitement. Bronco, on his video presention, pointed out that BYU was one of seven schools in the country that had been ranked in the final poll four straight years and one of four teams to win ten or more games each of the last four years. ( As a side line it was announced later that BYU is the only school in the country whose football and basketball teams have won 75% of their games the last four years.) Also, for the fifth year in a row we had a freshman all American. Another difference noted, last year Bronco was defending himself during his presentation; this year he did not have to. He isn't under the same criticism this year. And there was no mention of stars this year, an obvious difference from last year, when the lack of high star athletes was defended.
BYU has signed acceptance from 27 players; the NCAA allows 25 per year, but 4 of these players are going on missions before enrolling at BYU. There are also 8 players returning from their missions; 3 or 4 are home and the others will be back before the fall camp begins. That means that of 80 players on scholarship, 31 will be new this year; almost 40% of the players will not have been on the team last year.
The 27 recruits were from all over the country with 11 of them being from Utah. Half of those were ranked in the top 15 players in Utah. It seemed like a great recruiting class as time after time on the video we were told that the player was in the top 15 in the country at his position and a few even in the top ten. And we even have a running back that ran a 4.39 on a track in Alabama with electronic timing. When asked if he looked that fast, Tidwell said at least that fast. Also of interest, I did not notice one JC recruit which is a symbol of a strong program in good shape with their current players. There were some non Mormons that signed, including one from Arizona whose father has box seats at Sun Devil Stadium. He was Catholic I believe and was offered a scholarship by ASU. His parents came with him on his visit here and told him they wanted him to come here. They loved the school. There was also a non Mormon running back, I think from California, that is coming and is already in school. He has had his dreadlocks cut off to enroll. As expected the recruits all came from programs with great records, many of whom finished near the top in their state. It is always important to have kids on your team who expect to win because that is all they have ever done. Austin Ainge, a former basketball player at BYU and son of Danny Ainge, referred a player from Massachusetts which they signed. They also got a recruit from Georgia and Alabama from referrals. I think every recruit had at least two offers from BCS schools which is a little bit of a change from previous years. But then Jake Heaps, the #1 rated high school QB from Washington, got on the phone on his own and recruited players he knew to come here.
If you were a BYU fan, it was definitely a red meat day. The Cougar Club room was overflowing (another difference from last year), the excitement could not be missed, and the attitude from those asking questions was markedly different. But then it was a top 25 recruiting class for BYU.
I just returned from a Cougar Club luncheon at the stadium; easily 500 people there. After a nice lunch we had a film showing each recruit's highlight plays. Coach Mendenhall spoke for about half an hour and then Coach Tidwell (head of recruiting) answered questions for another half hour. None of the recruits were there, although four of them are in school.
Having attended three of these I noticed the differences immediately. First of all, with 11 wins and an impressive bowl victory over a good Pac 10 team the enthusiasm in the room was at a high level. You could feel the excitement. Bronco, on his video presention, pointed out that BYU was one of seven schools in the country that had been ranked in the final poll four straight years and one of four teams to win ten or more games each of the last four years. ( As a side line it was announced later that BYU is the only school in the country whose football and basketball teams have won 75% of their games the last four years.) Also, for the fifth year in a row we had a freshman all American. Another difference noted, last year Bronco was defending himself during his presentation; this year he did not have to. He isn't under the same criticism this year. And there was no mention of stars this year, an obvious difference from last year, when the lack of high star athletes was defended.
BYU has signed acceptance from 27 players; the NCAA allows 25 per year, but 4 of these players are going on missions before enrolling at BYU. There are also 8 players returning from their missions; 3 or 4 are home and the others will be back before the fall camp begins. That means that of 80 players on scholarship, 31 will be new this year; almost 40% of the players will not have been on the team last year.
The 27 recruits were from all over the country with 11 of them being from Utah. Half of those were ranked in the top 15 players in Utah. It seemed like a great recruiting class as time after time on the video we were told that the player was in the top 15 in the country at his position and a few even in the top ten. And we even have a running back that ran a 4.39 on a track in Alabama with electronic timing. When asked if he looked that fast, Tidwell said at least that fast. Also of interest, I did not notice one JC recruit which is a symbol of a strong program in good shape with their current players. There were some non Mormons that signed, including one from Arizona whose father has box seats at Sun Devil Stadium. He was Catholic I believe and was offered a scholarship by ASU. His parents came with him on his visit here and told him they wanted him to come here. They loved the school. There was also a non Mormon running back, I think from California, that is coming and is already in school. He has had his dreadlocks cut off to enroll. As expected the recruits all came from programs with great records, many of whom finished near the top in their state. It is always important to have kids on your team who expect to win because that is all they have ever done. Austin Ainge, a former basketball player at BYU and son of Danny Ainge, referred a player from Massachusetts which they signed. They also got a recruit from Georgia and Alabama from referrals. I think every recruit had at least two offers from BCS schools which is a little bit of a change from previous years. But then Jake Heaps, the #1 rated high school QB from Washington, got on the phone on his own and recruited players he knew to come here.
If you were a BYU fan, it was definitely a red meat day. The Cougar Club room was overflowing (another difference from last year), the excitement could not be missed, and the attitude from those asking questions was markedly different. But then it was a top 25 recruiting class for BYU.
Monday, February 1, 2010
MWC in the first week of February
Well, the first half of the conference season finishes up on Wednesday night with an 8pm game between UNLV and Wyoming. There weren't a whole lot of surprises so far. I think everybody expected the top 4 to be fairly close, followed by the next four who haven't distinguished themselves from each other yet, followed by Air Force. Anyway, I'll talk some more about the first half of the conference season once it is actually completed. For now, the weekday games for the MWC this first week of February.
Air Force (1-6) is fresh off its first MWC win in two years. Now they have to travel to the third most difficult location to win in the conference at SDSU (4-3). It doesn't help that SDSU absolutely cannot afford to play anything resembling a close game. Too bad Air Force can't start a winning streak. I fully expect the Aztecs to take care of business. As usual against Air Force, there is a feeling out process, but after 10 minutes or so I think they will lock down defensively and use their size and speed advantage. SDSU 70, Air Force 55.
Colorado State (3-4) heads to Salt Lake to battle the Utes (3-4) for 5th place. Utah will be without its best offensive player, Marshall Henderson, for the game for his mandatory one-game suspension. I wonder how the Utes will respond after falling below .500 for the first time this late in the season since Giacoletti's last season back 4 years ago. I know how Jay Watkins is going to respond, but I wonder about the rest of this teammates. In the comeback bid against BYU, one can't help but wonder: where was Carlon Brown? Where was Luka Drca? Where was Kim Tillie? What happened to the upper classmen? It was all Watkins and Henderson. If they had to come back tonight and play just about anybody in the conference besides CSU, I think they'd lose. Luckily for them they are playing a team that is having more trouble scoring than Utah is. Utes take this in one of the lowest scoring MWC games not involving Air Force this season. Utah 64, CSU 57.
UNLV (5-2) travels to Laramie for the final game of "season 1" of MWC play. Laramie has been a tough place for a lot of teams this season. UNLV definitely needs the win to stay off the bubble, but more importantly, they need it to keep pace with New Mexico who has already finished their first 8 conference games at 6-2. Wyoming (2-5) has already played 2 of the top 4 at home and beat SDSU and lost a close one to New Mexico. This should be a game. UNLV is without Derrick Jasper, who in my mind has been a huge disappointment anyway this season. It hurts their depth, obviously. Normally in this case I would anticipate a good game, with UNLV pulling away late with their fresher bodies. Without Jasper, I think they'll need to build a sizeable lead early to pull this one out. UNLV gets the job done: 78-69. I think this effectively ends Wyoming's season. I don't see how they can get more than 2 or 3 more wins this year.
BYU (6-1) hosts TCU (2-5). The schedule couldn't have set up nicer for BYU. They get a Tuesday night home game before Saturday's showdown at UNLV while the Rebels have to travel to Laramie for the late game on Wednesday. That essentially gives BYU a 1.5 day edge on UNLV as far as rest and preparation are concerned. They also get a lighter opponent. There is no question that BYU wins the game, the question becomes what will we see from the Cougars? Will somebody else step up and score some points? Will the bench players show enough consistency to earn 10-15 minutes in this game? I don't blame Coach Rose: with what Morgan, Davies, and Loyd have done in those 3 games, they don't deserve playing time. I am curious why those three in particular are slumping so much right now? Maybe they aren't slumping, maybe they just look like amateurs compared to what Jimmer is doing right now. This game is more interesting b/c BYU needs to get a few things clicking before going to Vegas, and not so much because of the outcome of the game. I think BYU will get as many as 5 guys in double figures (I think Jimmer will probably barely get there this game). BYU 82, TCU 61. The Horned Frogs have been having a lot of trouble scoring lately, and a trip to the Marriott Center doesn't usually help that...
What do you all think? What thoughts do you have for how these games will play out? Also, who scores in double figures for BYU?
Air Force (1-6) is fresh off its first MWC win in two years. Now they have to travel to the third most difficult location to win in the conference at SDSU (4-3). It doesn't help that SDSU absolutely cannot afford to play anything resembling a close game. Too bad Air Force can't start a winning streak. I fully expect the Aztecs to take care of business. As usual against Air Force, there is a feeling out process, but after 10 minutes or so I think they will lock down defensively and use their size and speed advantage. SDSU 70, Air Force 55.
Colorado State (3-4) heads to Salt Lake to battle the Utes (3-4) for 5th place. Utah will be without its best offensive player, Marshall Henderson, for the game for his mandatory one-game suspension. I wonder how the Utes will respond after falling below .500 for the first time this late in the season since Giacoletti's last season back 4 years ago. I know how Jay Watkins is going to respond, but I wonder about the rest of this teammates. In the comeback bid against BYU, one can't help but wonder: where was Carlon Brown? Where was Luka Drca? Where was Kim Tillie? What happened to the upper classmen? It was all Watkins and Henderson. If they had to come back tonight and play just about anybody in the conference besides CSU, I think they'd lose. Luckily for them they are playing a team that is having more trouble scoring than Utah is. Utes take this in one of the lowest scoring MWC games not involving Air Force this season. Utah 64, CSU 57.
UNLV (5-2) travels to Laramie for the final game of "season 1" of MWC play. Laramie has been a tough place for a lot of teams this season. UNLV definitely needs the win to stay off the bubble, but more importantly, they need it to keep pace with New Mexico who has already finished their first 8 conference games at 6-2. Wyoming (2-5) has already played 2 of the top 4 at home and beat SDSU and lost a close one to New Mexico. This should be a game. UNLV is without Derrick Jasper, who in my mind has been a huge disappointment anyway this season. It hurts their depth, obviously. Normally in this case I would anticipate a good game, with UNLV pulling away late with their fresher bodies. Without Jasper, I think they'll need to build a sizeable lead early to pull this one out. UNLV gets the job done: 78-69. I think this effectively ends Wyoming's season. I don't see how they can get more than 2 or 3 more wins this year.
BYU (6-1) hosts TCU (2-5). The schedule couldn't have set up nicer for BYU. They get a Tuesday night home game before Saturday's showdown at UNLV while the Rebels have to travel to Laramie for the late game on Wednesday. That essentially gives BYU a 1.5 day edge on UNLV as far as rest and preparation are concerned. They also get a lighter opponent. There is no question that BYU wins the game, the question becomes what will we see from the Cougars? Will somebody else step up and score some points? Will the bench players show enough consistency to earn 10-15 minutes in this game? I don't blame Coach Rose: with what Morgan, Davies, and Loyd have done in those 3 games, they don't deserve playing time. I am curious why those three in particular are slumping so much right now? Maybe they aren't slumping, maybe they just look like amateurs compared to what Jimmer is doing right now. This game is more interesting b/c BYU needs to get a few things clicking before going to Vegas, and not so much because of the outcome of the game. I think BYU will get as many as 5 guys in double figures (I think Jimmer will probably barely get there this game). BYU 82, TCU 61. The Horned Frogs have been having a lot of trouble scoring lately, and a trip to the Marriott Center doesn't usually help that...
What do you all think? What thoughts do you have for how these games will play out? Also, who scores in double figures for BYU?
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