A Few Heisman Thoughts

I believe Sam Bradford is a great QB. I do not believe he should have been a Heisman winning QB. I think the past two years have shown: stats are all that matters. I wonder if Sam Bradford would have won IF Oklahoma hadn't have scored 60 points in 5 straight games (NCAA record).

Here's how I view the 3 finalists:
Sam Bradford is phenomenal, especially for a sophomore. But I think if you took him off of Oklahoma and replaced him with McCoy, Tebow, Graham Harrell, Zach Robinson, Max Hall, David Johnson (Tulsa), Mark Sanchez, Nate Davis (Ball State), and maybe a handful of other guys, I think you could have seen similar production in stats, and probably fairly identical results in the win column. Oklahoma is one of the two best teams in the country (with USC). They have a stable of good running backs, a corps of blue-chippers catching passes at WR and TE, and the offensive line could easily transition to the Detroit Lions and improve their team dramatically. Also, the one loss that Oklahoma had was because their offense couldn't put up points in the second half against Texas, which can, at least partially, be blamed on Bradford.
Colt McCoy was absolutely indispensable to his team. You could not take McCoy off of Texas and expect them to be ranked number 3 in the country: there isn't someone who combines athletic ability with his arm (Tebow's got the athletic ability and then some, Bradford's got the arm and then some, but no one has the combo like the Real McCoy). The ground game was pretty much non-existent, McCoy was actually the leading rusher on the team and there is no close second. His receivers were pretty darn good, but I'd take Manuel Johnson and Ryan Broyles (OU's 3rd and 4th receivers) over Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby (UT's 1st and 2nd-by the way, they don't have a third option). The offensive line was solid but it wasn't loaded with NFL talent at each position like OU and a few other teams. In Texas' one loss, McCoy led Texas to a potential game-winning touchdown with under a minute to go, it was the defense that lost it for the Longhorns.
There is only one Tim Tebow. You put any other dual threat quarterback in the country on Florida's team, and Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC title game. Florida is a great team, but Tebow is why Florida is worth watching. THIS season, however, he did a lot more handing off to the talented guys around him (you can get any service academy QB to do that). He is a great leader and is as competitive as they come. He had a good O-line, a great offense that was tailored to his strengths with a great signal caller (who won't be there next year), and 5 guys he could get the ball to in space and watch them break big plays. In Florida's lone loss, Tebow was stopped on two consecutive running plays, including a 4th and one, that ultimately cost his team the game. Granted, if they blocked better on extra points, it would have gone to OT...

If I had a vote (which I don't and never will) it would look like this:
1. Colt McCoy
2. Michael Crabtree
3. Sam Bradford
4. Tim Tebow
5. Rey Maualuga (that guy scares me to death, I'm afraid if I didn't put him on here he would hunt me down and kill me and my family, then hunt down my in-laws and extended family and anyone I work with or who has the same last name as me or anyone that might have spoken to me at some point in my life, ever)

A Look Ahead

I know it is WAY TOO EARLY to be discussing this, but I have a few predictions about the Mountain West Conference for the 2009 football season.
1) The winner of the BYU-TCU game will win the conference and go to a BCS game. Assuming Utah doesn't get creamed against Alabama, TCU beats or nearly beats Boise State, and BYU pounds Arizona (I think that's the biggest assumption of the three), the conference should be able to hold on to some of the respect they earned this season. This puts an undefeated, or even a 1-loss, MWC champion ahead of pretty much any other non-BCS team (OK, I'll say it, Boise State is the only one that could be ahead of an MWC champion), and almost assuredly in the top 12 automatic qualifying range. With Patterson coaching TCU and Mendenhall at BYU, the winner of the TCU-BYU game will have 1 loss or less.
2) Utah will mourn the loss of Gary Anderson more than any other person. Without him coaching that D, I think they would have been lucky to go 10-2, and they could have been as bad as 7-5 (Michigan, Oregon State, New Mexico, TCU, and BYU all could have gone the other way without the defensive genius of Mr. Anderson-we'll never know, but my money would have been on 9-3). I think they will finish around 4th-5th next year. They have to travel to UNLV, TCU, CSU, and BYU in conference, and to Oregon and San Jose State out of conference. I see 4 losses there.
3) New Mexico will not get bowl eligible again. Their season hit the crapper when Porterie went down: he'll be back, but without Ferguson to carry the ball, Rocky Long to coach it up, and Deandre Wright at corner, it's going to be rough. I feel sorry for the new coach in Albuquerque. They have a brutal non-conference slate and have a couple of big road games in conference: at TCU and at Utah. I don't see how they get to 6.
4) SDSU and Wyoming will bring up the rear again, with New Mexico nearby. Maybe they should have given their respective coaches one more year. Are they going to be able to get anyone better? If they do happen to find someone better, when they finally have one good season, their new coaches will move on to better jobs elsewhere, and they'll be right back to square one.
5) The conference will produce a first round draft pick. I know, it's sad, USC's backfield will probably produce two first round picks...but it's big news for the Mountain West.

The final rankings: Florida-OU in the Title Game

Maybe the BCS got it right this time. Well, at least they have the same two teams in the National Championship that the Mo Knows rankings came up with. The only difference in the BCS, based on my rankings, would have been that Boise State would have received the automatic berth, not Utah. The strength of schedule really killed Utah. Surprisingly, it REALLY helped Boise State, as their schedule pushed them ahead of Texas Tech, Ohio State, Penn State, and USC. But again, the schedules on those 4 wasn't exactly overwhelming. Tech played in the Big 12 South, but played TWO I-AA teams out of conference. Ohio State played USC and Penn State, and bunch of teams from Ohio with losing records. Penn State played Ohio State and Oregon State combined with a Big 10 slate. USC played Ohio State and Oregon State and the rest of the Pac 10. I guess it wasn't Boise State's strength of schedule, but rather the teams ahead of them and their weak schedules. Utah got passed up by several ACC squads. There's the moral of the story: parity in a conference makes for a tougher schedule than a very top heavy conference.

Rank	Team
1	Florida
2	Oklahoma
3	Texas
4	Alabama
5	Boise State
6	USC
7	Ohio State
8	Cincinnati
9	Florida State
10	Georgia Tech
11	Nebraska
12	Texas Tech
13	Penn State
14	Michigan State
15	OK State
16	Pittsburgh
17	Georgia
18	Oregon
19	Virginia Tech
20	Utah
21	Rice
22	TCU
23	Ball State
24	California
25	BYU
26	Missouri
27	East Carolina
28	Northwestern
29	Ole Miss
30	Oregon State
31	Iowa
32	Boston College
33	Kansas
34	Western Michigan
35	Troy
36	Navy
37	North Carolina
38	Tulsa
39	Rutgers
40	Air Force
41	Clemson
42	Buffalo
43	Wake Forest
44	West Virginia
45	Wisconsin
46	Central Michigan
47	Maryland
48	Nevada
49	Minnesota
50	Fresno State
51	South Carolina
52	South Florida
53	Arizona
54	Hawaii
55	Miami
56	Houston
57	Connecticut
58	LSU
59	Louisiana Tech

Obviously, it isn't perfect, but I'll make tweaks to it next year and see how it works out (first step will be to reduce the number of times strength of schedule is applied from 5 to 2). Anyway, more to come later about bowls and such. Tata for now.

The Final Weekend

It is a sad time for all of us: the end of the college football season is upon us. Time for my final picks. I am 2 for 3 so far, missing on Ball State's second half collapse. So here they are, one last time:

Connecticut over Pittsburgh, 34-24: Pitt is one of the best teams at playing down to the level of competition. They have been so inconsistent, it's amazing to me they got to 8 wins. Then again, in the Big East, if they didn't win 8...
Tulsa over East Carolina, 45-24: Remember the hype about ECU after 3 games? Let's play a few games before we crown BCS busters next time around.
Navy over Army, 38-13: it'll probably be pretty close at the half, but that triple-option attack will wear Army down. Let's just hope it doesn't happen to our troops in the field...
Virginia Tech over Boston College, 27-17: Defense wins championships. Virginia Tech has one, Boston College has something resembling a defense.
Washington under California 48-10: ZERO wins. Ouch. Good luck, Mr. Sarkisian. If anybody can do it, you can. My advice: find a good defensive coordinator, fast!
USC over UCLA 45-9: Rivalry game? Well, when you are this superior to your rival, you have to take it to them. USC has already stated they don't think they'll need their timeouts. I'm pretty sure they'll back that up with their play on the field.
Arizona State over Arizona, 17-14: In their 12th game of the season, preseason number 15 FINALLY gets bowl eligible. Good thing we have those preseason polls: they are a very accurate predictor of how the season will play out. Joke! Only 4 of the preseason top 10 are still in the top 10. One team in the top 10 didn't even get bowl eligible (Auburn). What a waste of energy and excitement when we could have spent August campaigning for socialism.
West Virginia over South Florida, 48-24: Remember when South Florida was ranked number two last year and everybody talked about the newfound strength of their program? This year they played 5 teams with winning records: 2-3, both wins coming at home by 4 points or less...not a good program. They are the Kansas of the Big East: light on the schedule, easy on the wins.
Hawaii over Cincinnati 31-24: traveling thousands of miles after you have already clinched a BCS Bowl berth, why would they show up? I wouldn't. How many chances is a kid from Ohio going to have to go to the Sandwich Islands? Party, have a good time, head out for some football, and then enjoy the Hula dancers. That's what I'd do...if I wasn't married...and if I had enough ability to play football for a Big East team...that darn hamstring keeps holding me back...

The two big ones:
Oklahoma clobbers Missouri, 52-27: Missouri has a chance, but if they don't take it early, this one could be over by the start of the second quarter. That's been OU's formula for success: drop 35 in the first quarter and call it good. And against a Missouri defense that gave up 40 to Kansas?!?!

I can't understand why nobody gives Alabama a chance. They are the only major college football team to go undefeated through the regular season. They are the number 1 team in the country with the best defense east of USC and defense wins championships, last time I checked (explains why BYU is number 3 in the Mountain West). Florida is all flash and no heart. The number one team in the country is the underdog?!? Absolutely ridiculous!
Florida over Alabama 45-17.

Mo Knows Rankings

Here are the rankings (note that I would have Texas playing Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game-as it stands, since they don't play and, therefore, can't lose, Texas will be ranked number 2 and play in my National Championship game against the winner of the Florida-Alabama game, assuming their strength of schedule doesn't drop them to number 3 when I apply that again after the weekend games):

Rank	Team	Record	Previous
1	Florida	11-1	1
2	Texas	11-1	2
3	USC	10-1	3
4	Oklahoma	11-1	4
5	Alabama	12-0	5
6	Penn State	11-1	6
7	Ohio State	10-2	7
8	Texas Tech	11-1	10
9	Boise State	12-0	11
10	Cincinnati	10-2	13
11	Georgia Tech	9-3	16
12	OK State	9-3	8
13	Utah	12-0	14
14	Ball State	12-0	15
15	Oregon	9-3	26
16	Nebraska	8-4	17
17	Rice	9-3	20
18	TCU	10-2	22
19	Florida State	8-4	18
20	Tulsa	10-2	24
21	BYU	10-2	25
22	Northwestern	9-3	27
23	Michigan State	9-3	28
24	Pittsburgh	8-3	29
25	Georgia	9-3	9
26	Boston College	9-3	30
27	Missouri	9-3	12
28	Western Michigan	9-3	21
29	Ole Miss	8-4	31
30	Va Tech	8-4	32
31	Iowa	8-4	34
32	California	7-4	37
33	Navy	7-4	39
34	Troy	7-4	42
35	Kansas	7-5	43
36	ECU	8-4	45
37	South Florida	7-4	46
38	Air Force	8-4	47
39	Oregon State	8-4	19
40	West Virginia	7-4	35
41	Central Michigan	8-4	36
42	Wisconsin	7-5	49
43	Connecticut	7-4	52
44	North Carolina	8-4	53
45	Rutgers	6-5	55
46	Clemson	7-5	56
47	Hawaii	7-5	57
48	Nevada	7-5	58
49	Arizona	6-5	59
50	Wake Forest	7-5	60
51	Minnesota	7-5	61
52	Arkansas State	7-5	N/A
53	Fresno State	7-5	41
54	Houston	7-5	38
55	Maryland	7-5	48
56	Louisiana Tech	7-5	40
57	South Carolina	7-5	23
58	Buffalo	7-5	33
59	Miami	7-5	50
60	LSU	7-5	51

Any thoughts from my wise readers? I think other than Nebraska and Rice, the top 25 is a pretty accurate representation of what it really is.

OU-Texas

Sorry for the extended absence. Holidays and all, you know.

So, OU is going to the Big 12 Championship Game. Texas got screwed? Who did it, and why did it happen? First off, let's look at the human polls. What exactly are they trying to measure? Well, you ask all the pollsters and each one will have a different opinion. Are they trying to measure who has had the best season? Maybe. Are they trying to measure who is the best team right now? Maybe. Well, who had the better season as a whole: probably Oklahoma. Who is the better team right now: probably Oklahoma. Who won head to head: Texas, definitely. Well, whatever they are trying to measure, the human polls are neck and neck, with a slight lead to Texas actually.
Secondly, let's look at the computers, since they are what put OU ahead of UT. Compare these two schedules:
Arkansas vs. TCU
Rice vs. Cincinnati
Florida Atlantic vs. @Washington
@UTEP vs. Chattanooga
On the one side, I see one (C-USA) opponent going to a bowl game but no teams that spent any time in the rankings this season. On the other side, I see two current top 15 opponents, one a BCS conference champion, one a second place finisher in a better-than-some-BCS-conferences Mountain West. We often hear the "big schools" say: our conference schedule is so tough, we need to schedule some patsies to give our team a break. Well, it was only a matter of time before a situation like this came up and a "big school" got ousted by another big school that ponied up in the non-conference scheduling. Because OU manned up and played somebody out of conference, Texas will be sitting at home this weekend.
Texas did get screwed; they got royally screwed. Why? Arkansas, Rice, FAU, and UTEP. They screwed themselves: replace FAU with Tulsa, Central Michigan, BYU, Navy, Fresno State, etc. and they would have the inside track to the title game. Cowboy up, Horns, the Sooners did, that's why they are where you want to be. Head to the store, pick up a little cheese with that whine of yours, and talk to your AD about scheduling teams outside of the two worst conferences in America. Rice, UTEP, FAU? Looks like a great baseball schedule. You want to play for the national championship in big-time college football, play some football schools. Your rivals, the guys you beat on a neutral field, had some cajonas and, as a result, they are playing in the big game. Or, if you plan on continuing to schedule patsies, at least work on your double-coverage on the sideline with 2 seconds left in the game. If you could do that, you'd be 12-0 and there'd be no discussion. Two words: Boomer. Sooner.

New Rankings

Well, here they are. The MWC and the Big 10 are done, so they won't be moving very much, only upward.

Rank	Team	Record	Result
1	Florida	10-1	1
2	Texas	10-1	2
3	USC	9-1	3
4	Oklahoma	10-1	4
5	Alabama	11-0	5
6	Penn State	11-1	20
7	Ohio State	10-2	7
8	OK State	9-2	9
9	Georgia	9-2	10
10	Texas Tech	10-1	6
11	Boise State	11-0	11
12	Missouri	9-2	12
13	Cincinnati	9-2	13
14	Utah	12-0	14
15	Ball State	11-0	22
16	Georgia Tech	8-3	35
17	Nebraska	7-4	17
18	Florida State	8-3	34
19	Oregon State	8-3	21
20	Rice	8-3	24
21	W Michigan	9-2	25
22	TCU	10-2	29
23	South Carolina	7-4	30
24	Tulsa	9-2	31
25	BYU	10-2	23
26	Oregon	8-3	32
27	Northwestern	9-3	33
28	Michigan State	9-3	8
29	Pittsburgh	7-3	15
30	Boston College	8-3	36
31	Ole Miss	7-4	38
32	Virginia Tech	7-4	39
33	Buffalo	7-4	40
34	Iowa	8-4	42
35	West Virginia	7-3	43
36	Central Michigan	8-3	18
37	California	7-4	44
38	Houston	7-4	45
39	Navy	6-4	48
40	Louisiana Tech	7-4	51
41	Fresno State	7-4	53
42	Troy	7-4	54
43	Kansas	6-5	55
44	Kentucky	6-5	56
45	East Carolina	7-4	57
46	South Florida	7-4	60
47	Air Force	8-4	41
48	Maryland	7-4	19
49	Wisconsin	7-5	49
50	Miami	7-4	16
51	LSU	7-4	26
52	Connecticut	7-4	28
53	North Carolina	7-4	27
54	NIU	6-5	N/A
55	Rutgers	6-5	N/A
56	Clemson	6-5	N/A
57	Hawaii	6-5	N/A
58	Nevada	6-5	50
59	Arizona	6-5	58
60	Wake Forest	6-5	47
61	Minnesota	7-5	52
62	Vanderbilt	6-5	37
63	Notre Dame	6-5	46

Any challengers? Also, I am working on my answer to the BCS mess, i.e. my solution to the problem, starting next year, but it will take some work.

I have got to leave soon so these will be quick.

Ohio State over Michigan 38-17.
Wyoming over CSU 28-27.
Washington over Washington State in the most meaningful game of the day 38-35, I heard Rafe is going to be watching this one intently.
Cal over Stanford 27-17.
LSU over Ole Miss 35-27.
Boston College over Wake Forest 34-14.
TCU over Air Force 34-27.
Northwestern over Illinois 45-31.
Boise State over Nevada 45-28.
Iowa over Minnesota 27-21.

Big games:
Penn State over Michigan State 38-13
Arizona over Oregon State (USC breathes a sigh of relief) 28-27.
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati 35-28.
Florida State over Maryland 20-16.
Oklahoma over Texas Tech 49-44.
BYU vs. Utah:
One more piece of analysis, then my pick: after watching Utah all year and watching last season's game last night on the Mtn (thanks Mtn for providing me with all-access to all-things Mountain West, sorry you can't help Rafe out, but I'm good with you), I've determined why I think their offense struggles at times. As soon as they cross the 50, or get their 3rd first down of a drive, they run a trick play: if it works, they score, if it doesn't, they punt.
Utah always plays this rivalry game with more passion, which leads to mistakes early in the game. BYU plays even-keeled (as always) and they kind of get knocked back by Utah's passion and intensity. By the second half they usually both settle in: Utah cuts down on mistakes, and BYU gets a little more excited. BYU did show some passion last week in the second half, maybe that will carry over...
I am making my pick based on Whit vs. Bronco head-to-head b/c there is no way to predict which Utah offense shows up, or which BYU defense shows up, or if Utah's D will suffocate BYU's O like TCU, or if BYU's O will move the ball like they have in 10 games this year and as Utah has allowed a couple of times this season.
When BYU is a better team, they win CLOSE (or "on a miracle at the end" as my wife says). When the teams are even, Utah wins in OT. When Utah is better, well, this is the first year they have had the better team under these coaches, so there isn't history there. But you can imagine where this is headed. When the game is at Utah, there will be points scored, that seems to be the trend.
I want to say BYU brings their A game, but I think they bring their B+ game. I'd like to say Utah brings their C game, but I think they bring their A- team for half the game, and their B- for the other half. Unfortunately, that will probably be enough to win this one. I still hold out hope for BYU, and I still think they could easily win by 21, but they could also just as easily lose by 21. I don't think they can win another close game though. I'm predicting a 34-31 win for:

The University of Utah. As much as it pains me to say it, and I really hope I am wrong. Go Cougars. And Cougar fans: nothing good FOR BYU comes from Utah going to a BCS game. In 2006, did you have more respect for Hawaii and San Jose State b/c Boise State manned up on Oklahoma? No, but those were your 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the WAC. BYU doesn't get more respect because Utah goes BCS-ing. Did BYU outrecruit Utah after the 2004 season? No, Utah was able to get better recruits, i.e. this year's senior class, which is better than BYU's for the first time in several years. It doesn't help. Do not believe that the team that hates you more than they love their team going to a BCS game helps you. It helps Utah.

BYU-Utah Teaser

Well, I thought I'd give you a glimpse at the matchups for Saturday's big game. First off, I'd like to thank Pat Forde for the great research he did on the "holy war" (I will never call it that again, there is nothing holy about this rivalry). And thanks for the advice to Max Hall, I sure hope he doesn't throw it to Deshawn Richard, considering the two will likely never be on the field at the same time, unless Max Hall comes out for kickoff return. The mop-up duty safety/special teams gunner and the conference player of the year QB don't face-off against each other too often. Maybe due more research than looking at the stat sheet next time...
Secondly, the vitriol of this rivalry is a bit ridiculous. Both sides think the other side is jealous of their success. Utah, how many 10-win seasons have you had in the last 30 years? Congrats on having two this decade, what an accomplishment. Did you know that until a few weeks ago you hadn't been ranked in 3 full seasons and part of a 4th where BYU has been ranked this entire season and half of the previous two seasons (you know, those seasons you spent hoping to show up in others receiving votes)? BYU, you haven't finished ranked in the top 10 in 12 years, and haven't played in a meaningful (big money) bowl since then, and that streak could extend to 13 if you don't win this weekend. Utah may finish ranked there for the third time since 1994 and play in a second big money bowl in 4 years. Both of you are pretty good non-BCS schools. Neither one of you knocks the socks off the other, and don't bring religion into it. Over half of the U's student population is LDS, so if you hate BYU for being Mormon, you kind of have to hate yourselves. And there are a lot of active church-goers who attend the U, so BYU, don't be hating on the U for being apostate or not good enough to get in to BYU.
Thirdly, I think the similarities of these two teams are a bit uncanny. So here's a look into Mo's mind as the big one approaches.
BYU's D vs. Utah's O: both sides have shown brilliance, and total ineptitude at times during the season. First let's look at coaches: Jaime Hill/Bronco Mendenhall vs. Andy Ludwig. It's a good thing Utah has a lot of talent on offense because if it came down to coaching, I wouldn't like their chances (on a side note, maybe Utah will get lucky and Ludwig will be smart and take a job offer somewhere, that's the only chance they have of building a decent O next year). BYU's D is designed to force teams to drive down the field, and is supposed to prevent big plays. Utah's O is designed to make big plays, but rarely shows the patience to nickel and dime their way down the field. BYU's D hasn't been good at stopping trick plays. Utah's trick play success rate has been so-so, granted every third or fourth play could be considered a "trick play" so let's just call it a "trick offense." BYU has stepped up and made big plays in the red zone in the last two minutes of the game. Utah has choked in the red zone consistently in the first 58 minutes of the game. Utah's O has a little more potential than BYU's D, but has a little less consistency. Against good offenses, BYU has given up yards, and in some cases, points, though they are holding opponents to less than 20 per game. Against good defenses, Utah seems to like scoring 13 points. I'm not going to call BYU's D good, but I'm also not willing to call Utah's O good. Both are "good at times." Which one shows up for each team on Saturday?
BYU's O vs. Utah's D: again, both sides have looked great at times but not stellar at others. The coaches: Gary Anderson vs. Robert Anae, wow, those are some good coaches on both sides, but I'd rather have Gary Anderson, or better yet, I don't need him on my side, let's just hope he takes a coaching job in another conference after the season (or before Saturday...). BYU has gained yards and put up points in bunches, but has had some struggles in the red zone with turnovers. Utah's D has given up yards in bunches, but has been stout in the red zone in forcing field goal attempts (and misses, thankfully). Max Hall makes some sensational throws, and forces some stuff into tight/double coverage. Utah's defense isn't great at defending the pass, but is great at getting pressure on the quarterback. Utah's run defense has been fairly stout (though the stats are somewhat skewed because of all of the sacks, which count against rush yards in college-which is dumb). BYU's rush offense hasn't really been up to par throughout the season. They have had some good games, and they've had some bad games. They seem to live up to challenges because the good games are against good run defenses and the bad games are against bad run defenses. Go figure. Utah has played fundamentally sound during the season. BYU is a pretty basic offense, so being fundamentally sound isn't as crucial, but BYU has shown the ability to mix in a unique set every now and again (usually resulting in a holding penalty on Michael Reed negating the play). Utah's biggest weakness on D (besides 4th and 18 defense): shotgun rushes off-tackle with a lead blocker where those rush ends USED to be. BYU's favorite/only running play: shotgun off-tackle with Fui leading the way. BYU's biggest weakness on O: using the play-action pass before establishing the running game. Utah's biggest strength on D: not falling for the play-action pass when the running game isn't a threat.
The way I see it: strength on strength, weakness on weakness, consistency on consisency, inconsistency on inconsistency. If Utah's offense comes out with a bang, they could blow it open early. If Utah's defense pressures Hall, they could shut him down, like TCU did. If BYU's defense plays fundamentally sound and forces Utah to patiently march downfield, they could hold Utah to a lot of field goals/punts inside the 10-yard line. If BYU's offense can handle the pressure and stick with the running game, they could be unstoppable.
Either team could win big. Or it could come down to Mitch Payne/Louie Sakoda winning or losing it in the closing minutes. Which will it be?
This is a "teaser," i.e. you aren't getting my answer yet.
Rafe, was that good enough unbiased analysis for you?

Mo Knows Rankings, Strength of Schedule added

Sorry it's taken so long for me to get this up this week, but adding the strength of schedule element takes time. There was some shake-up in the top 10. Florida jumped OU and Texas Tech, who both dropped (Tech a little more significantly). Utah's and Boise State's weak schedules pulled them out of the top 10.

Rank	Team
1	Florida
2	Texas
3	USC
4	Oklahoma
5	Alabama
6	Texas Tech
7	Ohio State
8	Michigan State
9	OK State
10	Georgia
11	Boise State
12	Missouri
13	Cincinnati
14	Utah
15	Pittsburgh
16	Miami
17	Nebraska
18	Central Michigan
19	Maryland
20	Penn State
21	Oregon State
22	Ball State
23	BYU
24	Rice
25	Western Michigan
26	LSU
27	North Carolina
28	Connecticut
29	TCU
30	South Carolina
31	Tulsa
32	Oregon
33	Northwestern
34	Florida State
35	Georgia Tech
36	Boston College
37	Vanderbilt
38	Ole Miss
39	Va Tech
40	Buffalo
41	Air Force
42	Iowa
43	West Virginia
44	Cal
45	Houston
46	Notre Dame
47	Wake Forest
48	Navy
49	Wisconsin
50	Nevada
51	La Tech
52	Minnesota
53	Fresno State
54	Troy
55	Kansas
56	Kentucky
57	ECU
58	Arizona
59	SJSU
60	South Florida

Well, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rice look a little high, but besides that I'd say it looks pretty good. Miami was high as well, but they took care of that themselves...