TCU-BYU part I

I thought I'd take a couple of things to watch for with this weekend's game. First, I'll compare a strength and a weakness of BYU's offense with a strength and a weakness of TCU's defense.
Strength:
Third Down Conversions
BYU's O ranks 1st in the country in 3rd down conversions at a 64% conversion rate. This is nearly 7% higher than number 2, which is the biggest gap BY FAR between ANY 2 teams ranked next to each other. 3 factors for this. 1) BYU excels in the intermediate passing game. 3rd and 11 isn't such a daunting task for a team that averages more than that per completion (and they complete over 65% of their passes) and while it somewhat limits the playbook, there are still a lot of passing plays in the repertoire. 2) BYU has some bruising running backs and a big offensive line. 3rd and short should be a cakewalk when your O-line outweighs the D-line by 40 pounds a man, and your RBs weigh as much as or more than the opposing LBs. On 3rd and forever they have run draw plays and dragged defensive players 8-10 yards at the end of the play to get first downs. 3) The teams they have played just aren't that good at stopping third downs. Oklahoma is the only opponent BYU has played in the top 80 in 3rd down defense. In fact, BYU's average opponent allows offenses to convert 45.5% of the time, which would rank as the 105th worst team in the country. While some of that is attributable to the fact that each of BYU's opponents have played BYU, they have still played 5 or 6 other games and had the opportunity to lower that percentage.
TCU's D ranks 5th in the country in 3rd down conversions. I believe the answer here also can be summed up in 3 reasons. 1) The speed and aggressiveness of their defense forces more third and longs than most defenses do. They are 6th in the nation in sacks, so they can get to the QB and be disruptive. 2) The 4-2-5 scheme is very different from what teams are used to seeing. There is already an extra DB in for passing situations. QBs often get confused and flustered into making bad decisions. Gary Patterson helps his players disguise coverages and assignments better than most college coaches I've seen. It's tough to prepare for a TCU D in one week. 3) Similar to BYU, they haven't faced a lot of offensive juggernauts. TCU's 5 I-A opponents average a 3rd down conversion rate of 33.5%, which would rank 99th nationally.
Thoughts: Due to the third reason listed in each segment above, it is tough to tell if the BYU O and TCU D are just really good on third downs, or if they have benefited by playing teams that are just really bad at it. Either way, I think you have to give a slight edge to BYU's offense in this factor for two reasons. First, last season, even in a game dominated by TCU from start to finish, BYU hit their season average of 55% conversions on third down. That season average was good enough for 2nd in the country. So even TCU's disruptive D couldn't stop BYU on 3rd down. Second, BYU is so far ahead in this regard of every team in the country. Whether the OC has figured it out, or Max Hall is able to take his play on third downs to another level, or some other reason, BYU just seems to have it figured out and has been among the top teams in the country for 4 straight seasons.

Weakness:
Giveaways/Takeaways
BYU's offense ranks 93rd in the country in giveaways, or turnovers if you prefer. They are averaging just over 2/game. While they have shown improvement over the past two games, not turning it over a single time in two straight road wins, they haven't exactly played very stout defenses: those defenses couldn't stop the run, get pressure, or cover BYU's receivers, backs, and tight ends. BYU amassed over 1100 yards and nearly 100 points in those two games. BYU hasn't fumbled in 15 quarters after fumbling 5 times in the first 13 quarters. Most of the fumbles came from inexperienced WRs who were learning the hard way what Division I football is all about. It appears this is MOSTLY figured out. Interceptions are the main concern as a 5th year senior and 3rd year starter at QB threw 10 picks in the first 5 games. That isn't inexperience. Some of it was miscommunication, but a lot of it was greed and bad decision making. So BYU is 93rd in turnovers, while their opponents average out to be 68th in the country in takeaways. The only logical explanation for the disparity is that BYU is just turnover prone.
What's worse than BYU turning the ball over twice a game? TCU averages just over 1 takeaway a game. That is good for 107th in the country. That is bad. Offenses TCU's defense has faced are more likely to take care of the ball than defenses BYU's offense has seen are at taking it away: averaging out at 46th in the country in turnovers. But still, that does not explain why a defense that is so good at managing yards and points is so bad at forcing turnovers. If I had to guess at TCU's struggles at creating turnovers, I would say it boils down to 2 reasons. 1) They had a lot of new starters on D, particularly in the secondary where most of a teams INTs happen. 2) Their special teams is too good. The D forces a punt, they get a big return, the D barely gets a breather...ok, that one isn't as valid, considering TCU is 9th in the country in time of possession. Like I said: I'm just throwing out guesses: they should be good! They are good at everything else. Last year they were a top 30 D in takeaways. I don't get it.
Thoughts: BYU will give the ball away, if someone is willing to take it. I'm just not sure if TCU is willing and able. I definitely have to give the edge to TCU here though. Last year, TCU forced 4 turnovers: about 2 more than their average AND 2 more than BYU's average of giveaways. I'd say BYU turns it over 2 or 3 times in this game. When they occur and how costly they are will determine the outcome. I especially look for in the red zone or when it results in points for the opposition. Not getting points on the board when you are in chipshot field goal range can be a huge momentum and point swing. And any "pick 6" would also likely spell doom for the Cougars.