Are They Who We Thought They Were?

These guys are legit, they will have 12 wins before they play a bowl game:
Florida. Urban gets more out of his guys than any coach in America. And now, at Florida, he has some of the best guys. Good combo for him, bad for pretty much everybody else in America. I think they will lose a game this year, but that shouldn't exclude them from the National Championship picture. Defense. Offense. Speed. Coaching. Effort. Enthusiasm. Home field advantage. Road Warriors. Defending champs.
Texas. Colt McCoy is a winner. Texas looks good. If they can beat Oklahoma on the 17th, I think they can go undefeated and play in the National Championship game. If they lose, even a single game, I think their SOS prevents them from getting in the title game, even playing in the Big 12 South. Non-conference: Sun Belt, two C-USA, and an MWC bottom-feeder. In a year where the Big 12 South is looking more-than-human, they can't overcome any of the other top 10 teams that put together 1-loss campaigns.
Boise State. Maybe they wouldn't survive USC's schedule, or Florida's, or Texas', or even BYU's. But then again, maybe they would. They have pounded every team on their schedule so far. Injuries have taken their toll on the team, and they have just plugged in backup's that have done just fine, so depth isn't a huge issue. They are talented. They have size. They have speed. They hit hard on D. Their offense is balanced AND explosive. They are sound in the kicking and return games. What more do you want? I'm also not sure they'll go undefeated, very few teams ever do, but they are a great team.


These are on my watch list, I think they should/will get 10-11 wins during the season, but I'm not sold that they can stay in the top 10 for the rest of the year:
Alabama: nice win against Va Tech. Blew out Arkansas. They haven't played a true road game against a good opponent yet. Even the Va Tech win may not have been all that impressive, only time will tell how good of a team they beat. I'm guessing they beat a 2 or 3-loss ACC champion. Big game at Ole Miss this weekend. I'm interested to see how Ole Miss will perform without all the hype surrounding them: good start with a big win on the road at Vandy last week.
Virginia Tech: not too much beef left on the schedule. They have certainly looked beatable but what game left on the schedule will they lose: BC, @ Georgia Tech? Maybe one of them, but certainly not both. There is always the look ahead game, but there isn't anything to look ahead to after the next two games. If Georgia Tech doesn't drop them, I think Va Tech could be in position to get embarrassed in the National Championship game after the war of attrition in the top 4: only two of those 4 can go undefeated, and it's likely only one of them will.
LSU: they have struggled in all of their road games. But you can't discount that they held on to win all of them. They only have 2 more of those this season anyway: but both of them are against teams that are probably better than Washington, Mississippi State, and Georgia: Alabama and Ole Miss. I think of these teams, LSU is probably the least likely to get to 10.
USC: the offense hasn't looked great since the first game of the season. It appears they did OK against Cal (missed that game), but I'm waiting to see them move the ball consistently on the road. The D has kept them in games, but can they do it against some of the better offenses in the Pac 10 (Oregon and, well, Oregon. Maybe Stanford???)?
Ohio State: tough to tell with them as they have only played one good team. And lost. At home. Penn State and Iowa are the only potential challenges left on their schedule, but I don't really think much of either of those team to be honest. The Big Ten needs to step up in their scheduling all around. This "4 patsies before conference play" thing is getting a little tired, particularly for a conference that needs some marquee non-conference wins to get back the respect they have lost for sucking in bowl games in recent years.
TCU: they have one of the best defenses in the country. They have proven they can win on the road in hostile environments. The offense has been less than spectacular but they certainly have the speed to make up for it. They are excellent on special teams. However, their big win was a very tight game at Clemson, which may not actually mean very much by season's end. With a win at Air Force this weekend (which isn't spectacular) and at BYU in 3 weeks, I'll definitely buy into them as a legitimate top 10 team. Clemson, Air Force, and BYU would probably be as good a collection of road wins as most teams in the country will have.


In the top 25, but I don't buy into them as top 10 teams (probably will have 10 wins after the bowls are played...):
Penn State: the schedule could be easier, but I'm not sure how. They play 4 crap non-conference games and don't have to play one of the better Big Ten teams, Wisconsin, this year in conference play. They get Ohio State at home, and they had Iowa at home. Plus they have 8 home games on the schedule and Michigan is the only difficult one of the 4 road games. The schedule cried for 12-0 before the 4th quarter collapse against Iowa. I still think they get 9, maybe 10 wins, but a lot of teams in the country could have with this schedule.
Auburn: how do you judge a team that has played only 1 really lousy team, with 1 mediocre team, and 3 pretty decent teams? I can't judge them just yet. I believe that they will falter down the stretch with four of their final 5 games: @ LSU, Ole Miss, @ Georgia, Alabama. I can't buy into them until at least Halloween, after the first two games in that stretch. Maybe after playing @ Arkansas this weekend they'll just fall out of the discussion anyway...
BYU: this is kind of a "depends on what it means" type of situation. I think they are primed to go 10-2, which doesn't prove that they aren't a great team, but it doesn't show that they are a great team either. The win against Oklahoma is looking less impressive today than it was last week, but if OU goes 9-3 and manages to beat Kansas and OK State, it will look pretty good again (Texas is the better team right now, but OU COULD still beat them next weekend). They have got to stop turning the ball over. Max Hall continues to throw picks like a true freshman and the only wide receiver who hasn't fumbled yet this year pulled a hammy last week and is out a month.


These teams will definitely prove they do not belong in not too long (i.e. single-digit wins):
Oregon: ever since the removal of that cancerous tumor, LeGarrette Blount, this has looked like a good, and certainly improving week-to-week, team. They beat Purdue and Utah in close affairs and started the demise of Cal. They also blew out Washington State. However, those four were all at home, and none of those 4 has looked very special this season (or Cal since then...).
Cincy: big win at Oregon State, but that's about the only impressive thing I've seen from them. They still have a couple of decently difficult road games and I'm not sure they are THAT MUCH better than the rest of the Big East that they run the conference undefeated.
Miami: I'm still concerned about the D at the U. The three best teams left on the schedule are on the road: Wake Forest, North Carolina, and South Florida.
Iowa: not taking anything away from winning at Penn State, but Iowa hasn't played a difficult schedule and they haven't dominated ANY opponent from start to finish, even the 35-3 win at Iowa State was 7-3 late in the 2nd quarter. I think the next three games will prove Iowa's mettle: if they go 3-0 I will eat crow. When they go 1-2 and drop from the top 25 you can all praise my accuracy. At 2-1, we'll call it even...
Oklahoma State: gotta love preseason hype, which is the only reason the Cowboys are still in the discussion. They beat Georgia after the refs made a bad call. They lost to Houston. Then beat Rice and Grambling but not after giving up 30 points to the highly outmanned opponents. No D, no clutch play, and no road games. They'll lose 2 or 3 of the next 4 and we can stop talking about the Cowboys.
Kansas: they've got a rough schedule, good thing they went EASY in the non-conference scheduling. Maybe they can get a win at home against Oklahoma. Maybe. Maybe they can sneak a win from the Pirate in Lubbock on Halloween. Maybe. Maybe they lose both. Either way, 9-3 is probably as good as they can do, and 8-4 is probably most likely at this point.
Oklahoma: Andre Ware predicted 4 losses for OU this season, including BYU and Miami. It appears likely that they lose to Texas. They travel to Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas Tech. They play Oklahoma State as well. The aura of invincibility surrounding OU is all but gone. Losing to BYU can do that to you!
Ole Miss: I thought maybe the schedule would help them, with the toughest teams at home and the less tough on the road. They have shown they can't win the less tough ones on the road. Can they win the tough ones at home? Not likely. They host Alabama and LSU but must travel to Auburn. They'll drop AT LEAST one of those, and maybe even all 3.
Nebraska: they've played one ranked team and have one loss. They have 3 more ranked teams, two on the road, left. I'm thinking they lose at least 3.
Georgia Tech: 4 more road games. Have to play Virginia Tech and Georgia still.
South Florida: they have exactly two quality wins in the history of their program, and everyone jumps on the bandwagon. 2 ranked teams left, both at home (at least 1 will be a loss) and 3 conference road games (at least 1 will be a loss). Another 9-win season for the Bulls? Mo thinks so.
Mizzou: that beatdown they laid on Illinois sure was fun. Too bad the Illini bite. Needing a fourth quarter comeback against Bowling Green? Nearly blowing a lead on the road at Nevada? The next 3 are going to be brutal (and get progressively harder). Plus they end the season with Kansas. They have 3 losses ahead on the schedule, at least.
South Carolina: 3 road games, 1 Florida game, and in-state rival Clemson left? Not a good outlook for South Carolina. They have a great D, which is supposed to win championships, problem is teams that have offenses in the SEC also have great Ds.
Wisconsin, Houston, Georgia, Stanford, Utah, Michigan, Boston College, Notre Dame, Pitt, Arizona, West Virginia will probably all win between 7-9 games. Most likely to make a run and get to 10: Wisconsin, Houston (if they win their division they will get a 13th game), Boston College, Notre Dame, and Pitt (I don't think any of them will actually make it there, but they have the best chance). Most likely to only get 6: Stanford and Arizona.