Utah State O: very capable of moving the ball, especially on the ground, and scoring points. Big, fast bruiser at tailback: he outran the Utah secondary for a 97-yard TD the first game of the season. That was a few plays after he knocked a few of them on their backs. They have a mobile QB who keeps plays alive with his feet and is great in the open field. Last year he got away from pressure and ran the ball. This year he gets away from pressure and keeps his eyes downfield so he can still throw it. He isn't great on the deep ball, but he is servicable. These two are the main focus of the offense. Contain them, contain Utah State.
BYU D: usually pretty stout against the run. Florida State hurt them, but they did it with very different personnel than what Utah State (or any team left on BYU's schedule) brings to the table: short, shifty backs behind a huge O-line, and a very strong QB who can throw it 60 or run over LBs. OU couldn't run on them, Tulane couldn't run on them, CSU couldn't run on them. The pass defense hasn't looked great the past two games, but FSU and CSU have better passing games than Utah State. Essentially, BYU will have to try to make Utah State one-dimensional. If they stop the run, they win this game. Big.
BYU O: nobody has really stopped BYU's offense this year. They have stopped themselves with turnovers, missed field goals, and penalties, but no one has really stopped them. They even racked up nearly 400 yards against OU's defense and scored two more TDs against them than all of OU's other opponents combined, and that was with 3 turnovers. The running game is back and provides more balance now that Harvey Unga's hamstring has healed. Brian Kariya did a nice job filling in, but there are few shifty power backs like Unga out there: last game he ran a draw on 3rd and 16, avoided two defenders in the first 6 yards and dragged a third one for 10 yards and got the first down. The passing game isn't real sharp for BYU standards, with 8 INTs through 4 games. Max Hall is averaging just a hair under 300 yards, having gone through the toughest 4-game stretch, as far as defenses are concerned, on the schedule. So the picks are disconcerting, but they are certainly getting yards in bunches.
Utah State D: they haven't really stopped anybody. They made Utah QB Terrence Cain look like an All-American QB (which he has definitely proven not to be since then). Texas A&M was unstoppable against them. Even SUU put up 5 scores on them at home. Road game, better O, it doesn't look good for their D this game. They will need to force some turnovers and get pressure on Max. The D-line is VERY undersized. BYU's TEs outweigh the D-line, and BYU's fullbacks weigh about the same. However, the undersized part is partly by design: Gary Andersen knew he didn't have great defensive players, so he is playing the fastest guy at every position so at least there is speed. Speed won't help in a Double-TE, I-formation, run down your throat situation though. I expect to see a lot of that, particularly early on, to wear down the Aggie defense.
On paper, this is one of those games that should be a blowout. It is a rivalry game though and anything can happen. I look for Utah State to come out excited and enthused, and to play with much more emotion than the BYU-bots do. With their talent level, unfortunately, playing with emotion will probably cause some early errors (like with CSU). By the time they get settled, they might be down 2 or 3 scores (unless Max Hall starts the game off with an INT or two). I think in the end, BYU will cover the spread. BYU 45, Utah State 20.
No comments:
Post a Comment