Let me be clear about two things before I start: first, if there was anything we learned from last season (and last weekend) it's that it is way too early in the season to start predicting who will play in the National Championship game. Second, I am not saying that BYU is better than USC, I am not saying they would win in a head-to-head matchup, I am merely comparing schedules.
So, everywhere people are throwing out arguments, propaganda, etc. about BYU's, or any other non-BCS school's, chances of playing in a national championship game. The main argument against BYU making it is "who did they play?" Or "put them in [pick your BCS conference] and they would finish in the middle of the pack, if that." At the same time, USC, who already has one loss, is still in the national title discussion. So, I thought I'd rank the difficulty of BYU's schedule to USC's, and see if their schedule is that much worse that USC, with one loss, has a more valid argument to be in the NC game than an undefeated BYU team.
1. BYU @ Utah, Ohio State @ USC. Edge: BYU
Here's how I got there:
At the beginning of the season, it would seem very obvious Ohio State wins. However, Ohio State has been less than impressive in every game except the Youngstown State game. In fact, the pollsters put these two teams fairly equal (AP Poll: Ohio State #14, Utah #15; Coaches' Poll-used in BCS-: Ohio State #12, Utah #15; Harris Poll-used in BCS-: Ohio State #14, Utah #15). Factor in that USC got Ohio State at home, without Beanie Wells and with the QB situation in flux. Then consider that BYU plays Utah on the road and that it's a rivalry game.
2. BYU @ TCU, Oregon @ USC. Edge: BYU
Here's how I got there:
Well, essentially the same way as the previous one. The teams are about equal, but BYU plays TCU on the road. TCU's defense is much better than Oregon's, ranking in the top 15 in scoring, rushing, and total defense. Oregon's offense, however, is much better than TCU's, ranking in the top 15 in scoring, rushing, and total offense. Both of their rankings were similar last week and will be similar this week after USC dismantles Oregon.
3. BYU @ Air Force, USC @ Oregon State. Edge: USC
The teams may or may not be even (depends if you talk to a Pac 10 fan or an MWC fan). However, Corvallis is a tougher place to play than Colorado Springs. Confidence is huge in this one, as Oregon State knew they could beat USC, since they did it on the Trojans last trip up the coast. Meanwhile, Air Force has lost by 19 points or more in each contest against BYU since Bronco Mendenhall took over.
4. UNLV @ BYU, Arizona State @ USC. Edge: BYU
Arizona State is the obvious answer here, unless you remember a few weeks back when UNLV traveled to Tempe and beat Arizona State. You can't say much when a head-to-head matchup took place, and the road team won.
5. Wyoming @ BYU, California @ USC. Edge: USC
No contest.
6. New Mexico @ BYU, USC @ Arizona. Edge: BYU
Again, head-to-head matchup, New Mexico won. They were leading by two TDs with 5 minutes left in the game.
7. BYU @ CSU, Notre Dame @ USC. Edge: USC?
I'm not sure if Notre Dame is any good, but I know Colorado State isn't.
8. Northern Iowa @ BYU, USC @ Stanford. Edge: USC
The Best FCS team is still worse than a pretty bad Stanford team.
9. BYU @ Utah State, USC @ Virginia. Edge: USC
No contest.
10. SDSU @ BYU, USC @ Washington State. Edge: USC?
Let's face it, both of these schools are among the worst in the Football Bowl Subdivision. But playing in Pullman sucks bad. Being in Pullman sucks worse. Living in Pullman sucks worst. Maybe that's why Washington State sucks...
Common Opponents:
UCLA @ BYU, USC @ UCLA. Edge: USC
BYU hosted UCLA, USC has to travel the whole 5 miles for this rivalry game, where the stadium will be half-Trojan fans. Anything can happen in a rivalry game. The best team does not necessarily win.
BYU @ Washington, Washington @ USC. Edge: BYU
Road game vs. home game. Early in the season when expectations for a good season are high vs. later in the season when the expectations of a coach getting fired are high.
So, USC has 5 clear-cut advantages. BYU has 5 advantages. USC has two probable advantages, so the final score is USC 7, BYU 5.
That is not a large enough advantage to allow USC into the discussion with one loss and keep BYU out of the discussion. To be honest, I think both teams will drop one game and, therefore, be eliminated from the discussion anyway. But to disqualify BYU for lack of quality opponents is simply ridiculous. Now I'm not saying that the teams are equal, but their schedules are. So you can't eliminate one because of their schedule, unless you eliminate both, and I guarantee you, there isn't anyone in the country willing to eliminate both.
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