Friday, September 26, 2008

Is USC's title shot shot?

Can USC still make the National Championship? Without a doubt. Obviously it depends on them running the table. But if they did:

First off, let's take a look at how far they will probably drop. Let's look at what happened to teams ranked 1 or 2 last year when they lost to unranked opponents. USC was 1 and dropped to 7. Then number 2 California dropped to 10. South Florida was number 2 and dropped to 11. Boston College was 2 and dropped to 8. Ohio State went from 1 to 7. Oregon from 2 to 9. LSU went from 1 to 5. Missouri from 1 to 7. West Virginia from 2 to 11. So the average drop was 6.7 spots, the maximum drop was 9 and the minimum was 4. Looking at the current make-up of the top 12, obviously it depends on what happens this weekend, but I think they wouldn't drop any lower than 8, staying above Texas Tech, maybe even staying ahead of Wisconsin at 7.

Next, let's look at the schedules of the teams that would be ahead of them, 6 or 7 teams. 3 of them are from the Big 12: Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas. 3 of them are from the SEC: Georgia, Florida, and LSU. An undefeated Big 10 champ (Wisconsin or Penn State) could overtake USC. The Big East or the ACC champion, even if undefeated, wouldn't be able to pass up USC. The Mountain West champion couldn't overtake them either. So, only 1 Big 12 team can survive, 1 SEC team, and maybe 1 Big 10 team. If they run the table then, at worst, they would be 4th. For a Big 12 team to go undefeated and stay ahead of them they would have to beat 2 (or even 3 teams) currently in the top 10. For an SEC team to go undefeated and stay ahead of them they would have to beat at least 2 teams currently in the top 10 and maybe as many as 4 (beating one of them twice). For a Big 10 team to go undefeated, well, they'd have to be good...

Yes, USC certainly goes to the back of the line, however, the line will get shorter really quickly. If they take care of business, they'll be back to the front come December.

1 comment:

  1. agreed. People are counting them out already, but all they have to do is win out. The pollsters seem to be infatuated with USC, so if they win out, I think they'll be in the title game, assuming the SEC and Big-12 champs aren't undefeated.

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