BYU vs. UCLA

Why BYU should win big:

Offense: They can come at you so many different ways. They can run the ball. They can work the short passing game. They can throw the ball down the field. They have a lot of experience. They can convert on third and anything, or fourth and anything in the right circumstances... They are big, strong, tough, disciplined, smart, etc. They had some success running from the shotgun against UCLA last year, hopefully that lesson will be applied. Also, there is no Bruce Davis on the Bruin defense this time around.

UCLA's offense: their QB has started 4 road games in his career, all for SDSU, compiling an 0-4 record, losing by an average score of 44-14 and he only threw for over 100 yards in one of those games. Granted he has a better supporting cast now, but still, he has not performed well on the road in his career. They will also likely be without their best RB, WR, and TE. Craft was their 3rd string QB before the injuries moved him to number 1. The offensive line was bad to begin with. The personnel isn't there, and what is there is inexperienced, i.e. more likely to get rattled on the road.

Home-field advantage: BYU is 16-3 at home in the Bronco Mendenhall era, including 13 consecutive wins dating back to the home opener in 2006.

Confidence: the last two times BYU played UCLA they believed they could beat the Bruins. This time they know they can and they believe they will. It makes a huge difference. I think beating Washington on the road was the last hurdle to get this team the confidence it needs to compete with anybody.

The sack machine: BYU recorded 4 sacks last game against what was supposed to be a solid Pac-10 offensive line. It should be interesting to see how they do against what is supposed to be a weak, inexperienced, thin Pac-10 offensive line.

Why UCLA should win big:

Coaching: the three-headed monster knows how to coach, motivate, prepare, and adjust. Walker held BYU's offense to under 300 yards the last time these two faced off and always has his guys playing mentally and physically tough. Norm Chow always has an offense in Provo. His BYU teams always moved the ball well and on USC's lone trip to Provo under Chow, Leinart, Bush, and Dwayne Jarrett put on a clinic on their way to 42 points. And Rick Neuheisel is the Barack Obama of College Football. He can take a big fat load of crap and make people believe in it and turn out in record numbers to support it.

Speed and athleticism: BYU's fastest player wouldn't even qualify to race in a heat against UCLA's fastest. The recruiting classes over the past 4 years, i.e. the players that will be participating in the game, don't even compare, or if you did compare them it'd be laughable.

Turnovers: BYU has been turning the ball over and, for the most part, been unable to cause turnovers themselves. UCLA didn't fare well in the turnover battle against Tennessee, but Craft settled down after throwing 4 first-half picks. BYU's turnovers usually end up in points for the opposition, or come at crucial times, like on the goal line at the end of a beautiful 97-yard drive. UCLA turnovers in game 1 didn't take any points away from them or give any to Tennessee.

BYU's defense: if there is anything that can remedy that rushing performance against Tennesse it is playing against BYU. UCLA was the only team to have a 100-yard rusher against BYU last year. The secondary hasn't looked all that great either as Washington's inexperienced corps of receivers was able to work openings all day. They did hold Jake Locker to nearly 30 rushing yards less than his career average, however...

Why BYU WILL win big:

Take a neutral site one-point victory and add to that the fact that:

This game is in Provo, worth 6 points for BYU.
The injuries to UCLA's key offensive players, minus 3 points from UCLA.
You take out BYU's back 7, worth 7 points for UCLA.
Harvey Unga and Fui Vakapuna are both 100%, worth 7 points for BYU.
BYU has a kicker, worth 3 points for BYU.
Add Chow and Neuheisel, worth 7 points for UCLA.
Subtract Bruce Davis, worth 3 points for BYU.
Max Hall has seen every film there is on UCLA, worth 7 points for BYU.
Dennis Pitta is now related to Max Hall, worth 3 points for BYU.

It's a simple math equation. Start with a one-point victory, end up with a 21-point victory. On paper, BYU should win big, unfortunately they play on grass, not cardboard. If BYU can avoid costly turnovers and continue to convert on third down anywhere close to the 78% they have so far this season, scoring shouldn't be a problem for them. If UCLA isn't able to run the ball effectively, their defense could be spending a lot of time on the field. I don't see UCLA being able to sustain drives for long, more due to bad, inexperienced offense, not good defense. I see BYU able to continue to march methodically down the field, more due to good, experienced offense, not bad defense.

Final Score:

BYU 31, UCLA 10: if BYU is as good as they think they are, this game should be no problem. If it turns out to be a problem, Cougar fans, strap on your Cubs motto: next year's our year.

P.S. My gauge must have been a little off on my guess for Kansas and South Florida, I had 35-31, not 37-34. Shoot. By the bye I am 83% on the season (88% on Saturday games, but only 67% on games played on other nights of the week-there must be something to that).