Monday, September 22, 2008

The Mo Knows Mid-Major 10

1. BYU - even on a "down" offensive day the team scores 44 points (granted, 14 were scored by the defense). Bronco's defensive philosophy continues to work: defend the run and the deep ball. Give up the short passes and force them to drive down the field. The punter kicked well. The running game was working. The second and third string guys saw plenty of time. This keeps the starters rested, it develops depth for this year, and prepares next year's starters. It's a well-oiled machine in Provo these days.
2. Boise State - I thought by the end of the year, perhaps a little sooner, Boise State would prove to be the second best non-BCS team. They arrived there about a month or two ahead of schedule. Winning at Oregon is nearly impossible for non-conference foes, just ask Oklahoma. The last out-of-conference team to win at Autzen was the season-opener in 2004. The defense has had only one bad quarter the entire season, giving up 19 points to Oregon in a frantic 4th quarter comeback effort that fell short. Kellen Moore has been better than advertised. The line has been serviceable, at least in protecting the QB. They still need to open up more holes for Ian Johnson in the running game. BSU has been the most consistent non-BCS team, besides BYU.
3. TCU - the question with TCU was the offense. They have had solid defenses for years, they are currently number 1 in the country on that side of the ball, giving up a measly 183 yards/game. Andy Dalton has been more than adequate making plays in the passing game. He is also making plays with his feet as necessary. The running game has been spectacular, 12th in the country. This team looks scary good. They have the BIG game for the non-BCS this weekend, with a shot at number 2 Oklahoma. It might be back to reality for them this weekend, BUT, BUT, they might be the ones to bring OU back to reality.
4. Utah - would the real Utah please show itself? They DOMINATED Air Force up and down the field, all day long. They held Air Force to 53 yards rushing, and under 200 total yards. They threw for over 200 and rushed for just under 200. But they had to score with a minute left to take the lead for good. They only played a half against UNLV and Michigan. If they lose, it will be because their offense gives up as many points as it scores. I think that could still happen once or twice this year. They can't play like they have been against TCU, BYU, or even New Mexico or Oregon State. The defense has been solid, however.
5. Fresno State - well, despite the fact they forgot to play ANY defense, they still won a game over 2,000 miles from home in double OT. They played with the second-best team in the Big 10 (Penn State number 1, Wisconsin number 2) and nearly came away with a W. Their win against Rutgers has lost some luster in the past few weeks, but they have another statement game this weekend AT UCLA. They have the ability to take people out of their games and get in a dog fight. Too bad they have to play Boise State on the blue carpet.
6. Tulsa - is there a team left on their schedule that can hold them to less than 40 points and 500 yards? Well, there hasn't been one on the schedule so far to accomplish that (even New Mexico, who traditionally has a solid defense, couldn't hold them to less than 8 TDs). They've gone over 50 points and 600 yards twice. All this, while breaking in a new QB who is averaging over 400 yards a game. The defense could use some work, giving up 20+ points/game. If they continue to score 50 points a game, however, there isn't an offense on their schedule that can keep up.
7. ECU - well, it finally happened. The glass slipper is gone. I was not sold on ECU, and I am even more convinced that their season will end in single digit wins. Since C-USA went to the current format of 12 teams in 2 divisions, ECU hasn't won its division, and has lost at least two conference games each year. They have also been shaky on the road.
8. Ball State - Someone from the MAC was bound to have a good season. Ball State is looking like it, as they got an emotional win in-state this weekend against Indiana. They have won on the road, they have beaten a BCS team, and they have beaten two teams that played in bowl games last year. They don't have another team on their schedule that they couldn't beat, even without Love, their WR who went down against Indiana.
9. Troy - they gave Ohio State all they wanted in the Horseshoe. That isn't such a tough thing to do these days, but for a Sun Belt team it should be. The Buckeyes managed just 309 total yards on the boys from Troy. Now they get a shot at Oklahoma State and their man-coach, who is no longer 40. The offense is going to have to come around if they are going to compete, and, more importantly, if they want to stay in my top 10.
10. UNLV - I have to give UNLV a little love. They have defeated two BCS teams in overtime, including a ranked one on the road. They dominated most of the first half on the road against Utah. They have another chance to show something this week against in-state rival Nevada. Looking at their schedule they could actually get bowl eligible.

Looking ahead at Air Force's upcoming schedule, they could reel off 6 wins in a row to get to 9-1 and be ranked before hosting BYU on November 15th. Look for them to make an appearance in my top 10 in the next few weeks.

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