At one point yesterday, I was preparing a comparison of the 4 teams vying for the final two 1-seeds, because that seemed a bit important. Then Texas lost. And then there were 3. Really, it's a bit of a theoretical exercise: BYU has to beat New Mexico on Wednesday, CSU in the semifinals of the MWC Tourney, and then either UNLV on their home floor or top-10 SDSU for the third time in three tries. It would be a difficult road, despite how easy Doug Gottlieb may think it is. On one other side note: the RPI that the Selection Committee will use for determining seeds and at-large bids was finalized yesterday: BYU sat at #1.
Regular Season
Whether BYU wins out or not, the comparison really comes down to Duke and BYU. Texas is out. Pitt is most likely in. So Duke and BYU: not where they are right now, because BYU clearly has the edge, but where they could be in two weeks. BYU has 1 more regular season top-100 RPI game. Duke has a chance to play 2, Clemson at home and at North Carolina, a top-25 RPI team. Duke catches up, but I believe they still trail. BYU would still own 3 top-50 road wins. At UNC would be Duke's 1st. In addition, BYU will have 15 non-home wins in 17 games. Duke would have 12 in 15 tries.
Conference Tournament
BYU will play a team in the 200's in RPI in their first round game. Then they will play a top-100 RPI team in the Semifinals (top-50 if it's CSU), and a top 30-RPI team in the Final (top 5 if it is SDSU). Duke, in their conference tournament, will play a top-100 RPI opponent their first game, followed by two NCAA Tournament teams, barring upsets. If both teams win out, Duke will pass BYU for the 4th 1-seed. If Duke loses even once, BYU should take a 1-seed. If BYU loses even once, then reading this article was a waste of your time!
Advantage to 1 or 2?
Last season, 2-seeds actually had an easier road to the Elite Eight (where 1-seeds would meet 2-seeds) than 1-seeds. Three 10-seeds upset 7-seeds in the first round (BYU was the lone 7 to get it done) and only one 3-seed advanced to the Sweet 16. One 2-seed had to play a better opponent in the Round of 32. One 2-seed had to play a better opponent in the Sweet 16. 1-seeds played one 4, two 5s, and a 12 in the Sweet 16. Advantage 2-seeds in 2010.
In 2009 and 2008, however, all of the 3-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, so 2-seeds had a tough road. In 2007, all 7-seeds won their first round games as well. In the past 5 years, 2-seeds have faced (or would have faced if they didn't get eliminated early) only two 11-seeds, and no 14-seeds, in the Sweet 16. 1-seeds have played four 12-seeds and one 13-seed.
Numerically speaking, 70% of 2-seeds opponents in the Sweet 16 were 3-seeds, with only 10% of 11- and 14-seeds advancing that far. Compared to 35% of 1-seeds opponents being 4-seeds, 40% being 5-seeds, and 25% being 12- or 13-seeds. The road to being Elite is certainly easier being a 1-seed. That is one reason 1-seeds have a higher statistical chance of advancing farther in the NCAA Tournament than 2-seeds. The other reason is that 1-seeds are better than 2-seeds...for BYU, better a 1-seed than a 2, but in the grand scheme: by the second round you play a good opponent, and in the Sweet 16 you play a great team, period. You just have to beat the teams that are sitting on the other bench.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Monday, February 28, 2011
The BYU Number One Seed Argument
What Will It Take?
A lot of discussion has been made as to whether or not BYU can get a number 1 seed. If the season ended today, I don't see why they wouldn't. But the season doesn't end today. First off, at a bare minimum BYU needs to win their last two regular season games and the MWC Tournament. That should be enough to keep them in the top 3 of the RPI, which isn't a perfect measure of tournament seeding, but it's pretty good.
They may need to have the matchups line up correctly as well. That would mean playing CSU in the Semifinals and SDSU in the Finals of the tournament. That would be the biggest help to their Strength of Schedule, given the other opponents that they could get (New Mexico and UNLV). Getting TCU would also be better in the first round, from a Strength of Schedule perspective as well, though whether BYU plays the 200th or 258th team isn't a big difference. BYU currently has 4 top-25 wins, 9 top-50 RPI wins, and 11 top-100 wins. If UNLV could pop into the top 25 (currently at 26), it would give BYU 2 more top-25 wins. If Air Force could pop into the top 100 (currently at 103), that would help as well. Beating New Mexico, CSU, and SDSU would give them 1 more top-25 win, 2 more top-50 wins, and 3 more top-100 wins.
Sizing Up the Competition
Pittsburgh and Duke are their biggest competitors for the 3rd and 4th 1-seeds (I am assuming that Ohio State and Kansas are locks at this point). Texas also has an outside chance too, but I consider that very outside at the moment. If BYU wins out, Duke would probably have to win the ACC Tournament to be ahead of BYU. BYU has a better record and Strength of Schedule. Duke still has to play at resurgent North Carolina. Pitt's margin for error is probably a bit higher, given that they should win the Big East regular season title, a conference with a realistic shot at getting 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament. They should win their final two regular season games (at South Florida and home against collapsing Villanova). I think they only need to win 3 more games to get their #1 seed.
Texas has 3 losses (at Colorado, at USC, at Nebraska) as bad as BYU's worst loss (at New Mexico). But if they are co-conference champions with KU and win the Big XII Tournament, it'd be tough somewhat to argue that they shouldn't be a 1-seed as well. Especially with that win at Kansas in hand...
The Knock Against BYU
Complain all BYU fans want, but the question remains (and always will): who has BYU beat? They beat an SDSU team that the country is not sold on. I really haven't been sold on them either all season (as I have mentioned on several occasions: way too many close games against way too many not good teams), and the game on Saturday didn't do anything to change that. BYU beat Arizona, who may very well win the Pac 10, but that isn't anything to brag about right now. Plus the Wildcats just lost two road games in a row. They beat Utah State, at home, at the beginning of the season. This is another team that the country is not sold on either. They have wins against good computer opponents, but no one considers these top flight teams.
The numbers may tell a great story, but the eyeball test doesn't necessarily. By the bye, the eyeball test isn't a completely arbitrary way of keeping non-majors down. It isn't the end-all, be-all, but it is important. Like it or not, the Committee looks at it. I think the eyeball test is favorable for BYU, but not for BYU's "quality" wins. BYU has 4 wins against the top 25, but none of them are Final Four (or maybe even Elite Eight) caliber teams. They may all go advance to the Sweet 16, but the three teams and four wins are not absolutely infallible.
In Summary
If BYU wins out, including the conference tournament, they have a great chance of being a 1-seed. Their RPI is high (should be top 3). Their ranking is high (should be top 3). Their record is amazing (would be 32-2). They have Jimmer Fredette (should be National Player of the Year). It's no guarantee. But no matter what seed BYU gets, they should be playing in Denver the first weekend and in Anaheim the second weekend. They would probably be matched up against Kansas or Texas in their bracket as the opposite 1/2, which only matters if BYU makes an Elite Eight run.
If BYU loses another game, they are a 2-seed. They should still finish in the top 5. Jimmer should still be NPOY. They should still have 30 or 31 wins. They should still play in Denver/Anaheim. I like it either way.
A lot of discussion has been made as to whether or not BYU can get a number 1 seed. If the season ended today, I don't see why they wouldn't. But the season doesn't end today. First off, at a bare minimum BYU needs to win their last two regular season games and the MWC Tournament. That should be enough to keep them in the top 3 of the RPI, which isn't a perfect measure of tournament seeding, but it's pretty good.
They may need to have the matchups line up correctly as well. That would mean playing CSU in the Semifinals and SDSU in the Finals of the tournament. That would be the biggest help to their Strength of Schedule, given the other opponents that they could get (New Mexico and UNLV). Getting TCU would also be better in the first round, from a Strength of Schedule perspective as well, though whether BYU plays the 200th or 258th team isn't a big difference. BYU currently has 4 top-25 wins, 9 top-50 RPI wins, and 11 top-100 wins. If UNLV could pop into the top 25 (currently at 26), it would give BYU 2 more top-25 wins. If Air Force could pop into the top 100 (currently at 103), that would help as well. Beating New Mexico, CSU, and SDSU would give them 1 more top-25 win, 2 more top-50 wins, and 3 more top-100 wins.
Sizing Up the Competition
Pittsburgh and Duke are their biggest competitors for the 3rd and 4th 1-seeds (I am assuming that Ohio State and Kansas are locks at this point). Texas also has an outside chance too, but I consider that very outside at the moment. If BYU wins out, Duke would probably have to win the ACC Tournament to be ahead of BYU. BYU has a better record and Strength of Schedule. Duke still has to play at resurgent North Carolina. Pitt's margin for error is probably a bit higher, given that they should win the Big East regular season title, a conference with a realistic shot at getting 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament. They should win their final two regular season games (at South Florida and home against collapsing Villanova). I think they only need to win 3 more games to get their #1 seed.
Texas has 3 losses (at Colorado, at USC, at Nebraska) as bad as BYU's worst loss (at New Mexico). But if they are co-conference champions with KU and win the Big XII Tournament, it'd be tough somewhat to argue that they shouldn't be a 1-seed as well. Especially with that win at Kansas in hand...
The Knock Against BYU
Complain all BYU fans want, but the question remains (and always will): who has BYU beat? They beat an SDSU team that the country is not sold on. I really haven't been sold on them either all season (as I have mentioned on several occasions: way too many close games against way too many not good teams), and the game on Saturday didn't do anything to change that. BYU beat Arizona, who may very well win the Pac 10, but that isn't anything to brag about right now. Plus the Wildcats just lost two road games in a row. They beat Utah State, at home, at the beginning of the season. This is another team that the country is not sold on either. They have wins against good computer opponents, but no one considers these top flight teams.
The numbers may tell a great story, but the eyeball test doesn't necessarily. By the bye, the eyeball test isn't a completely arbitrary way of keeping non-majors down. It isn't the end-all, be-all, but it is important. Like it or not, the Committee looks at it. I think the eyeball test is favorable for BYU, but not for BYU's "quality" wins. BYU has 4 wins against the top 25, but none of them are Final Four (or maybe even Elite Eight) caliber teams. They may all go advance to the Sweet 16, but the three teams and four wins are not absolutely infallible.
In Summary
If BYU wins out, including the conference tournament, they have a great chance of being a 1-seed. Their RPI is high (should be top 3). Their ranking is high (should be top 3). Their record is amazing (would be 32-2). They have Jimmer Fredette (should be National Player of the Year). It's no guarantee. But no matter what seed BYU gets, they should be playing in Denver the first weekend and in Anaheim the second weekend. They would probably be matched up against Kansas or Texas in their bracket as the opposite 1/2, which only matters if BYU makes an Elite Eight run.
If BYU loses another game, they are a 2-seed. They should still finish in the top 5. Jimmer should still be NPOY. They should still have 30 or 31 wins. They should still play in Denver/Anaheim. I like it either way.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
BYU-SDSU Recap, 2/26/2011
Mo's Keys
1) I said BYU needed to get out to a fast start. They did, leading by 8 points 10 minutes into the game.
2) I said the team (not counting Jimmer) would need to hit 10 to 12 three-pointers, as Jimmer would have to deal with constant double and triple teams. They did, going 10-16, an astonishing 62.5%. On the road. Against a team in the top 5 in one of the polls.
3) I said that SDSU was going to need to make more shots, and that they wouldn't win the game on offensive rebounds and second-chance points. They made 3 more shots this game. And had 3 less offensive rebounds. That's not good enough.
4) I said that BYU was better prepared to deal with the hype than SDSU. That was certainly true. It probably wasn't nerves (it's probably just that SDSU can't shoot), but James Rahon was the only guy the Aztecs could count on to hit from the outside. But he only ended up with 10 points. Malcolm Thomas and DJ Gay were non-factors, perhaps a credit to Jackson Emery, Brandon Davies, Noah Hartsock, and the 2-3 zone, but perhaps it was the fact that this was the biggest game any of them had ever played in.
Thoughts
If Jimmer scored 40+ points again, BYU was going to be in trouble. It needed to be a team effort, and it was. In the final 10 minutes, Jimmer was doubled as soon as he crossed half-court and forced to give up the ball: boy, did that plan backfire. BYU's "other guys" hit 3 threes in the final 10 minutes. Frankly, it was the type of game I expected BYU to play at home, with role players stepping up and feeling the crowd. I suppose it is more encouraging that this happened in such a big game on the road. The "other guys" can handle anything too.
I feel a lot more vindicated in my explanation earlier this week that BYU has a better chance of tournament success than SDSU. If 40% shooting is what the Aztecs could do today, against a less athletic team, at home, in the biggest game in their program's history, how will they win several consecutive neutral site games against more athletic teams? If they struggled so hard against BYU's 2-3 zone, imagine how bad it would be if they saw Syracuse early in the tournament.
Looking Ahead
BYU should be the number 1 RPI team tomorrow, though maybe they are still #2, barely behind Kansas. They should jump into the top 5 in the polls on Monday, with Texas' come-from-ahead loss at CU. They have officially emerged as a legitimate 1-seed candidate, but that will require 5 more wins and an MWC Tournament Championship, at the minimum. Even then, it may take help from others losing ahead of them.
They should absolutely win their final two regular season games. They will get the 1-seed in the MWC Tournament and be conference champions with the best ever MWC record. They should advance to the MWC Tournament Final, though I am a little bit leary of a semifinal matchup with Colorado State. I am buying them as at least a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament now, assuming they win at least 3 more games. They are ahead of Texas now, in my opinion, and will be unless/until Texas beats Kansas in the Big XII Championship game. As I was typing this, Duke lost at Virginia Tech, so BYU should be ahead of them too: BYU sports a better record with a tougher strength of schedule (according to the computers).
Jimmer for NPOY
Jimmer's performance today should solidify his lead in the National Player of the Year debate. He "only" had 25 points, but had 9 assists and 2 steals. He led his team to a conference championship on the road with most of the college basketball-watching nation eyeing the game. He already had a huge lead. I don't see how it could get any smaller with his performance tonight. Especially with Nolan Smith having a terrible last 5 minutes in Duke's loss tonight. Jimmer went on the road and got it done. His competition failed to get it done. Jared Sullinger cannot do enough against woeful Indiana tomorrow to catch up either.
1) I said BYU needed to get out to a fast start. They did, leading by 8 points 10 minutes into the game.
2) I said the team (not counting Jimmer) would need to hit 10 to 12 three-pointers, as Jimmer would have to deal with constant double and triple teams. They did, going 10-16, an astonishing 62.5%. On the road. Against a team in the top 5 in one of the polls.
3) I said that SDSU was going to need to make more shots, and that they wouldn't win the game on offensive rebounds and second-chance points. They made 3 more shots this game. And had 3 less offensive rebounds. That's not good enough.
4) I said that BYU was better prepared to deal with the hype than SDSU. That was certainly true. It probably wasn't nerves (it's probably just that SDSU can't shoot), but James Rahon was the only guy the Aztecs could count on to hit from the outside. But he only ended up with 10 points. Malcolm Thomas and DJ Gay were non-factors, perhaps a credit to Jackson Emery, Brandon Davies, Noah Hartsock, and the 2-3 zone, but perhaps it was the fact that this was the biggest game any of them had ever played in.
Thoughts
If Jimmer scored 40+ points again, BYU was going to be in trouble. It needed to be a team effort, and it was. In the final 10 minutes, Jimmer was doubled as soon as he crossed half-court and forced to give up the ball: boy, did that plan backfire. BYU's "other guys" hit 3 threes in the final 10 minutes. Frankly, it was the type of game I expected BYU to play at home, with role players stepping up and feeling the crowd. I suppose it is more encouraging that this happened in such a big game on the road. The "other guys" can handle anything too.
I feel a lot more vindicated in my explanation earlier this week that BYU has a better chance of tournament success than SDSU. If 40% shooting is what the Aztecs could do today, against a less athletic team, at home, in the biggest game in their program's history, how will they win several consecutive neutral site games against more athletic teams? If they struggled so hard against BYU's 2-3 zone, imagine how bad it would be if they saw Syracuse early in the tournament.
Looking Ahead
BYU should be the number 1 RPI team tomorrow, though maybe they are still #2, barely behind Kansas. They should jump into the top 5 in the polls on Monday, with Texas' come-from-ahead loss at CU. They have officially emerged as a legitimate 1-seed candidate, but that will require 5 more wins and an MWC Tournament Championship, at the minimum. Even then, it may take help from others losing ahead of them.
They should absolutely win their final two regular season games. They will get the 1-seed in the MWC Tournament and be conference champions with the best ever MWC record. They should advance to the MWC Tournament Final, though I am a little bit leary of a semifinal matchup with Colorado State. I am buying them as at least a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament now, assuming they win at least 3 more games. They are ahead of Texas now, in my opinion, and will be unless/until Texas beats Kansas in the Big XII Championship game. As I was typing this, Duke lost at Virginia Tech, so BYU should be ahead of them too: BYU sports a better record with a tougher strength of schedule (according to the computers).
Jimmer for NPOY
Jimmer's performance today should solidify his lead in the National Player of the Year debate. He "only" had 25 points, but had 9 assists and 2 steals. He led his team to a conference championship on the road with most of the college basketball-watching nation eyeing the game. He already had a huge lead. I don't see how it could get any smaller with his performance tonight. Especially with Nolan Smith having a terrible last 5 minutes in Duke's loss tonight. Jimmer went on the road and got it done. His competition failed to get it done. Jared Sullinger cannot do enough against woeful Indiana tomorrow to catch up either.
Friday, February 25, 2011
BYU-SDSU Prediction, 2/26/2011
A Few Final Thoughts
I think this game will go one of two ways: BYU will rise to the moment and win a tightly contested game or BYU will choke and get blown out. All BYU fans are familiar with the team that chokes and loses the big game, more so than they are with the one that rises to these kinds of occasions. Some of them may not admit it, but they all know it to be true. But I have gone on record on many occasions this year stating that this is not the typical BYU team. They seem to be mentally tougher. They seem to find ways to get wins, even when things aren't going their way. But then there is the loss at New Mexico, in which they blow a double-digit lead during the final 10 minutes of the contest and lost by 9. And then there's the UCLA game in Anaheim, where BYU led for the first 9 minutes before trailing for the final 31 minutes in a loss.
On the flip side, BYU also dominated against the 10th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in Salt Lake City in a 22-point win. They controlled the second half at home against the Aztecs exactly one month prior to the rematch. They went to UNLV and responded to a 10-point deficit with 5 minutes left in the first half with some phenomenal play the final 5 of the first half, and just as dominating of a performance in the second half in a 12-point road win against a conference rival that is surely a single-digit seed NCAA Tournament team.
So will it be more like the team that played the second half against New Mexico or the one that played the second half at UNLV? Honestly, if BYU played well, I would not be disappointed with a loss. What would disappoint me would be for the Cougars to wilt under the pressure and be exposed for the unathletic, below-the-rim type of guys that they look like. I would be disappointed if nobody hit their shots and Jimmer looked like a one-man team.
The Edge
Both teams have distinct advantages. The Aztecs are a better defensive team and a better rebounding team. But BYU is a better offensive team and a better free throw shooting team. SDSU is at home. But Jimmer is on the road, where he has had some of his best performances of the season. SDSU is better in the half-court. But BYU is better in transition.
Both teams have great coaches. Both teams bring in solid players off the bench, but not many of them. Both teams have won games they probably should have lost. Both teams have a chance to perform so well that it won't matter what the other team does. Both teams are very good. Both definitely have advantages they can exploit. The game will go to the team that best utilizes their advantages.
Prediction
Can SDSU prevent Jimmer from going off while also keeping the role players in check? Jackson Emery and Noah Hartsock will tell you a lot. If they each hit their first few shots, then Jimmer will have a luxury he didn't have in the first meeting: dependable teammates. I think there are too many Cougars that have played well lately for the Cougars to play poorly/choke and get blown out. Since I said it could go one of two ways and I'm ruling one out, I'm obviously going the other way. I think this game will actually live up to the hype. BYU is more use to the hype, which may play to their advantage. I think BYU rises to the occasion and Jimmer leads BYU to what he returned his senior season for: a conference championship. Even if they lose, there should still be a great rematch in the MWC Tournament (unless UNLV is able to use its homecourt advantage to oust one of them in the semifinals). The winner of this game loses that rematch. I guess that means SDSU will be MWC Tournament Champions. BYU 74, SDSU 67. Jimmer Fredette, 29.
I think this game will go one of two ways: BYU will rise to the moment and win a tightly contested game or BYU will choke and get blown out. All BYU fans are familiar with the team that chokes and loses the big game, more so than they are with the one that rises to these kinds of occasions. Some of them may not admit it, but they all know it to be true. But I have gone on record on many occasions this year stating that this is not the typical BYU team. They seem to be mentally tougher. They seem to find ways to get wins, even when things aren't going their way. But then there is the loss at New Mexico, in which they blow a double-digit lead during the final 10 minutes of the contest and lost by 9. And then there's the UCLA game in Anaheim, where BYU led for the first 9 minutes before trailing for the final 31 minutes in a loss.
On the flip side, BYU also dominated against the 10th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in Salt Lake City in a 22-point win. They controlled the second half at home against the Aztecs exactly one month prior to the rematch. They went to UNLV and responded to a 10-point deficit with 5 minutes left in the first half with some phenomenal play the final 5 of the first half, and just as dominating of a performance in the second half in a 12-point road win against a conference rival that is surely a single-digit seed NCAA Tournament team.
So will it be more like the team that played the second half against New Mexico or the one that played the second half at UNLV? Honestly, if BYU played well, I would not be disappointed with a loss. What would disappoint me would be for the Cougars to wilt under the pressure and be exposed for the unathletic, below-the-rim type of guys that they look like. I would be disappointed if nobody hit their shots and Jimmer looked like a one-man team.
The Edge
Both teams have distinct advantages. The Aztecs are a better defensive team and a better rebounding team. But BYU is a better offensive team and a better free throw shooting team. SDSU is at home. But Jimmer is on the road, where he has had some of his best performances of the season. SDSU is better in the half-court. But BYU is better in transition.
Both teams have great coaches. Both teams bring in solid players off the bench, but not many of them. Both teams have won games they probably should have lost. Both teams have a chance to perform so well that it won't matter what the other team does. Both teams are very good. Both definitely have advantages they can exploit. The game will go to the team that best utilizes their advantages.
Prediction
Can SDSU prevent Jimmer from going off while also keeping the role players in check? Jackson Emery and Noah Hartsock will tell you a lot. If they each hit their first few shots, then Jimmer will have a luxury he didn't have in the first meeting: dependable teammates. I think there are too many Cougars that have played well lately for the Cougars to play poorly/choke and get blown out. Since I said it could go one of two ways and I'm ruling one out, I'm obviously going the other way. I think this game will actually live up to the hype. BYU is more use to the hype, which may play to their advantage. I think BYU rises to the occasion and Jimmer leads BYU to what he returned his senior season for: a conference championship. Even if they lose, there should still be a great rematch in the MWC Tournament (unless UNLV is able to use its homecourt advantage to oust one of them in the semifinals). The winner of this game loses that rematch. I guess that means SDSU will be MWC Tournament Champions. BYU 74, SDSU 67. Jimmer Fredette, 29.
A Few Keys: BYU-SDSU 2/26/2011
Early Start's Impact
This game is being played at 11am Pacific Time. That is early for SDSU. With it being Noon Mountain, it isn't as big of a deal for BYU. However, BYU also had a very physical contest against CSU Wednesday night, so the early start means less time to recuperate. Which team will be sluggish at the start? Or will both? Or will the hype of the game be enough for both teams to overcome? Whichever team gets off to a fast start may transform how the game is played. If BYU jumps out early, SDSU may get in catch-up mode too soon and get out of their normal stuff. If SDSU jumps out early, the crowd will get into it and some of BYU's younger and role players may not have the mental edge to overcome it. Whoever wins the first 10 minutes may very well win the game. That may be even more true for BYU, whose best chance is to get out early on the road and silence the crowd, and cling for the next 30, something they were unable to do against New Mexico.
Junking Jimmer
SDSU will most certainly have some junk defenses for Jimmer. How much will he get doubled? Who will guard him the lion's share of the minutes? Will they do what other teams have done with mixed results and put a PF on him and take away the outside shot? Jimmer has been driving around the lengthy defenders, but he has been making very poor decisions of late, turning the ball over way too much, on his dribble penetration. Or will they just take it out of his hands completely and force the rest of the squad to beat them consistently for 40 minutes? That is the tact I would do. Jackson Emery, Stephen Rogers, and Charles Abouo can make threes, but can they make 10 or 12 over 40 minutes? Noah Hartsock can hit baseline jumpers, Brandon Davies can score from the post, and Kyle Collinsworth can get to the rim and score, but can they each put up 15-20 points, and make those shots for an entire game? So what strategy will they employ?
Steve Fisher is very secretive about that kind of thing. I remember back about 2004 or so, I worked in the Marriott Center as a janitor. We were doing some kind of cleaning in the student section, it was game day after all, and he had one of the trainers come and kick us out because they were going over their defensive strategy in walk-through form. Chances are, nobody knows right now except the players and coaches what the Aztecs will do to try to stop Jimmer. I do know one thing: they are not going to let him go off for 43 and pretty much singlehandedly win the game. What they do with Jimmer and how Jimmer reacts, will be crucial. Jimmer must turn it over no more than 3 or 4 times. The other guys must continue to hit open looks when they get them. It is the only way to take the pressure off of Jimmer. Let's be honest, he pretty much did everything the last time these two teams met. That can't happen again if BYU wants to win.
It's All in the Percentages
In the first meeting, SDSU dominated the glass, nearly as badly as BYU dominated CSU on Wednesday night. However, they only scored 58 points. The fact was they had so many offensive rebounds because there were so many missed shots. SDSU had 13 second chance points on 18 offensive rebounds. [Make no mistake, BYU can not afford to give SDSU either of those numbers while playing on the road, but it ended up not killing them at home. Those numbers mirror what BYU did to CSU on Wednesday night, which was a big difference in the outcome, especially when it is the home team that does it.] But in the end, those boards and points for the Aztecs were not enough to overcome a deficiency in shooting the ball. BYU, who had 9 offensive rebounds and 2 second chance points, made up for the Aztecs rebounding dominance with 45% shooting to SDSU's 40%. I anticipate that both of those numbers will probably go down this game, but which one goes down more will have a huge impact. Jimmer shot 58% in the first meeting, but has been shooting under 40% for four consecutive games. In a game with both teams below 40%, SDSU has the edge. If BYU can stay over 40%, they should have a chance, assuming the BYU factor isn't in play tomorrow and SDSU shoots 50%...
This game is being played at 11am Pacific Time. That is early for SDSU. With it being Noon Mountain, it isn't as big of a deal for BYU. However, BYU also had a very physical contest against CSU Wednesday night, so the early start means less time to recuperate. Which team will be sluggish at the start? Or will both? Or will the hype of the game be enough for both teams to overcome? Whichever team gets off to a fast start may transform how the game is played. If BYU jumps out early, SDSU may get in catch-up mode too soon and get out of their normal stuff. If SDSU jumps out early, the crowd will get into it and some of BYU's younger and role players may not have the mental edge to overcome it. Whoever wins the first 10 minutes may very well win the game. That may be even more true for BYU, whose best chance is to get out early on the road and silence the crowd, and cling for the next 30, something they were unable to do against New Mexico.
Junking Jimmer
SDSU will most certainly have some junk defenses for Jimmer. How much will he get doubled? Who will guard him the lion's share of the minutes? Will they do what other teams have done with mixed results and put a PF on him and take away the outside shot? Jimmer has been driving around the lengthy defenders, but he has been making very poor decisions of late, turning the ball over way too much, on his dribble penetration. Or will they just take it out of his hands completely and force the rest of the squad to beat them consistently for 40 minutes? That is the tact I would do. Jackson Emery, Stephen Rogers, and Charles Abouo can make threes, but can they make 10 or 12 over 40 minutes? Noah Hartsock can hit baseline jumpers, Brandon Davies can score from the post, and Kyle Collinsworth can get to the rim and score, but can they each put up 15-20 points, and make those shots for an entire game? So what strategy will they employ?
Steve Fisher is very secretive about that kind of thing. I remember back about 2004 or so, I worked in the Marriott Center as a janitor. We were doing some kind of cleaning in the student section, it was game day after all, and he had one of the trainers come and kick us out because they were going over their defensive strategy in walk-through form. Chances are, nobody knows right now except the players and coaches what the Aztecs will do to try to stop Jimmer. I do know one thing: they are not going to let him go off for 43 and pretty much singlehandedly win the game. What they do with Jimmer and how Jimmer reacts, will be crucial. Jimmer must turn it over no more than 3 or 4 times. The other guys must continue to hit open looks when they get them. It is the only way to take the pressure off of Jimmer. Let's be honest, he pretty much did everything the last time these two teams met. That can't happen again if BYU wants to win.
It's All in the Percentages
In the first meeting, SDSU dominated the glass, nearly as badly as BYU dominated CSU on Wednesday night. However, they only scored 58 points. The fact was they had so many offensive rebounds because there were so many missed shots. SDSU had 13 second chance points on 18 offensive rebounds. [Make no mistake, BYU can not afford to give SDSU either of those numbers while playing on the road, but it ended up not killing them at home. Those numbers mirror what BYU did to CSU on Wednesday night, which was a big difference in the outcome, especially when it is the home team that does it.] But in the end, those boards and points for the Aztecs were not enough to overcome a deficiency in shooting the ball. BYU, who had 9 offensive rebounds and 2 second chance points, made up for the Aztecs rebounding dominance with 45% shooting to SDSU's 40%. I anticipate that both of those numbers will probably go down this game, but which one goes down more will have a huge impact. Jimmer shot 58% in the first meeting, but has been shooting under 40% for four consecutive games. In a game with both teams below 40%, SDSU has the edge. If BYU can stay over 40%, they should have a chance, assuming the BYU factor isn't in play tomorrow and SDSU shoots 50%...
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
State of BYU after CSU, 2/23/2011
Two Teams
In terms of wins and losses at this point in the season, this is the best BYU team ever. Through 28 games, no BYU team has ever won 26 games. One could also argue that through 28 games, this is probably one of the most difficult schedules (in the aggregate) that BYU has played. So an argument could be made that this is BYU's best team ever. It is certainly Coach Rose's best team ever. However, this is the most inconsistent BYU team I can recall, and that's just within a single game, not talking about from game to game.
Every BYU team has games where they don't play nearly as well as they did the game before. I am not talking about that kind of inconsistent. I am talking about how this team, within a minute's time, can look every bit the top ten team their ranking indicates and then resemble a pick-up game in a suburban LDS Cultural Hall. One minute, BYU is getting contributions from Abouo, Hartsock, Emery, and Davies, with Jimmer playing completely under control. The next minute, Jimmer is dribbling all over the place (like that punk feaux-streetballer that always shows up for the aforementioned pick-up game who thinks it's his duty to take 50% of his shots and 75% of the dribbles, while simultaneously playing point guard and center, as a one-man full-court press. You all know the type of guy I'm talking about), while every Cougar goes to sleep on the defensive end. Now, one could make the case that BYU is only playing as inconsistent as the refs have been the past month. I would certainly be remiss if I didn't say that the game tonight was one of the worst ref-ing jobs I have seen in a long time. Not biased, just bad. This is becoming a disturbing trend the past few weeks though...I am amazed they called 53 fouls in the game tonight, I think they missed at least that many, while also calling several questionable travel calls while missing a 4-step travel that resulted in a wide-open layup.
The game tonight was certainly not the first time BYU has been so inconsistent in the past month. But then this fact remains: they are still finding ways to win games. Tonight, they dominated about 12 minutes of the game, CSU dominated about 8 minutes, and the other 20 were pretty sloppy. Yet BYU scored 84 points on only 40% shooting against an NCAA Tournament Bubble Team (i.e. a team better than their first round opponent will probably be). Maybe the ability to play through such wild inconsistency and still win (with the game never really in doubt the final 10 minutes) is what makes this the best BYU team of the last 30 years.
Five Key Players
First off, four players finished in double figures, which was important. 1) Brandon Davies finished with more free throws than rebounds. And he had 15 rebounds. 2) Jackson Emery had 4 steals, including one at the most crucial point in the game, and a block to go with his 11 points. 3) Abouo hit a three, had two very important rebounds (and one other board too...), two blocks, a steal, 9 points, and an assist, with zero turnovers. 4) Collinsworth had 8 rebounds, all defensive, to go with his 3 assists and a block. 5) Jimmer, despite overdribbling, overshooting, taking triple teams head on (and losing time after time), finished with 34 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. He forced everything. He looked bad doing it. He got blocked 3-5 times (I lost count). When he beat the double-team he held on to the ball a step too long, which is where most of his 8 turnovers happened. He wasn't getting calls, but he kept playing like he was. He acted like a true ballhog, especially for someone shooting only 36% for the game. Jimmer did almost everything wrong. And finished with 34 points. And still got several fouls called on CSU's big men which is probably ultimately what cost CSU the game.
Comparing Tourney Chances
A lot of people have stated that SDSU is better built for an NCAA Tournament run than is BYU. They have size and athleticism. They rebound extremely well. They defend even better. However, I would make the argument that both are very good teams. But BYU has more just as good a chance, or better. They have more NCAA Tournament experience. BYU also has the one piece that SDSU does not: a player that can completely control everything about the game. SDSU has no Jimmer. Kawhi Leonard, DJ Gay, or Malcolm Thomas COULD take over a game for the Aztecs and carry the team. But with the game on the line, would you rather have Chris Bosh or Kobe Bryant? I am not saying Jimmer is Kobe by any means, nor that Chris Bosh couldn't carry his team in the fourth quarter. I am saying I would rather have the guy I know CAN carry the team than the guy I know COULD carry the team.
In the Gold Medal game at the last Olympics, who did Team USA turn to down the stretch when things were looking dire? It wasn't Lebron, D-Wade, or Cry-Melo. They didn't feed the post. No, not even close. Kobe took over the team. Kobe won the Gold Medal for USA. Everyone knew he was going to try to do it, and he did it anyway, and there was no stopping him. SDSU has some great players and any one of them could carry the team through a game, but they don't have a go-to guy that you know can get it done in crunchtime with everything on the line. They are an amazingly talented team. But another knock on them is that they haven't been there before. For the Aztecs, their NCAA Tournament First Round game will be pretty much everyone's second NCAA Tournament game. For their outside scoring threat James Rahon, it's his first-ever NCAA Tournament game. That's the guy you are trusting to keep the defense honest.
For Jimmer it's NCAA Tournament game #5 (averaged 22 points/game in the first 4). For Jackson, Noah, and Abouo it's #4 (James Anderson also dressed for 4 NCAA Tournament games). For Davies and Magnusson it's #3 (Zylstra dressed for 3). That is big. BYU has THE guy and they have the experience. When non-BCS schools make a deep run in the tournament (Butler, George Mason, Davidson, Gonzaga) it takes those two things more than athleticism and rebounding. In the tournament, everyone has that (well, except for BYU and some of the 14-16 seeds). I think that's what gives BYU a better chance at a long tournament life. However, especially after BYU's up-and-down performance tonight, I'm not putting either of them in my Final Four. I would like to see SDSU win ONE NCAA Tournament game before I pick them to win four (they are 0-6 in their program's history). I'd also like to see a BYU player dunk in traffic before I'd pick them to win more than two...
In terms of wins and losses at this point in the season, this is the best BYU team ever. Through 28 games, no BYU team has ever won 26 games. One could also argue that through 28 games, this is probably one of the most difficult schedules (in the aggregate) that BYU has played. So an argument could be made that this is BYU's best team ever. It is certainly Coach Rose's best team ever. However, this is the most inconsistent BYU team I can recall, and that's just within a single game, not talking about from game to game.
Every BYU team has games where they don't play nearly as well as they did the game before. I am not talking about that kind of inconsistent. I am talking about how this team, within a minute's time, can look every bit the top ten team their ranking indicates and then resemble a pick-up game in a suburban LDS Cultural Hall. One minute, BYU is getting contributions from Abouo, Hartsock, Emery, and Davies, with Jimmer playing completely under control. The next minute, Jimmer is dribbling all over the place (like that punk feaux-streetballer that always shows up for the aforementioned pick-up game who thinks it's his duty to take 50% of his shots and 75% of the dribbles, while simultaneously playing point guard and center, as a one-man full-court press. You all know the type of guy I'm talking about), while every Cougar goes to sleep on the defensive end. Now, one could make the case that BYU is only playing as inconsistent as the refs have been the past month. I would certainly be remiss if I didn't say that the game tonight was one of the worst ref-ing jobs I have seen in a long time. Not biased, just bad. This is becoming a disturbing trend the past few weeks though...I am amazed they called 53 fouls in the game tonight, I think they missed at least that many, while also calling several questionable travel calls while missing a 4-step travel that resulted in a wide-open layup.
The game tonight was certainly not the first time BYU has been so inconsistent in the past month. But then this fact remains: they are still finding ways to win games. Tonight, they dominated about 12 minutes of the game, CSU dominated about 8 minutes, and the other 20 were pretty sloppy. Yet BYU scored 84 points on only 40% shooting against an NCAA Tournament Bubble Team (i.e. a team better than their first round opponent will probably be). Maybe the ability to play through such wild inconsistency and still win (with the game never really in doubt the final 10 minutes) is what makes this the best BYU team of the last 30 years.
Five Key Players
First off, four players finished in double figures, which was important. 1) Brandon Davies finished with more free throws than rebounds. And he had 15 rebounds. 2) Jackson Emery had 4 steals, including one at the most crucial point in the game, and a block to go with his 11 points. 3) Abouo hit a three, had two very important rebounds (and one other board too...), two blocks, a steal, 9 points, and an assist, with zero turnovers. 4) Collinsworth had 8 rebounds, all defensive, to go with his 3 assists and a block. 5) Jimmer, despite overdribbling, overshooting, taking triple teams head on (and losing time after time), finished with 34 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. He forced everything. He looked bad doing it. He got blocked 3-5 times (I lost count). When he beat the double-team he held on to the ball a step too long, which is where most of his 8 turnovers happened. He wasn't getting calls, but he kept playing like he was. He acted like a true ballhog, especially for someone shooting only 36% for the game. Jimmer did almost everything wrong. And finished with 34 points. And still got several fouls called on CSU's big men which is probably ultimately what cost CSU the game.
Comparing Tourney Chances
A lot of people have stated that SDSU is better built for an NCAA Tournament run than is BYU. They have size and athleticism. They rebound extremely well. They defend even better. However, I would make the argument that both are very good teams. But BYU has more just as good a chance, or better. They have more NCAA Tournament experience. BYU also has the one piece that SDSU does not: a player that can completely control everything about the game. SDSU has no Jimmer. Kawhi Leonard, DJ Gay, or Malcolm Thomas COULD take over a game for the Aztecs and carry the team. But with the game on the line, would you rather have Chris Bosh or Kobe Bryant? I am not saying Jimmer is Kobe by any means, nor that Chris Bosh couldn't carry his team in the fourth quarter. I am saying I would rather have the guy I know CAN carry the team than the guy I know COULD carry the team.
In the Gold Medal game at the last Olympics, who did Team USA turn to down the stretch when things were looking dire? It wasn't Lebron, D-Wade, or Cry-Melo. They didn't feed the post. No, not even close. Kobe took over the team. Kobe won the Gold Medal for USA. Everyone knew he was going to try to do it, and he did it anyway, and there was no stopping him. SDSU has some great players and any one of them could carry the team through a game, but they don't have a go-to guy that you know can get it done in crunchtime with everything on the line. They are an amazingly talented team. But another knock on them is that they haven't been there before. For the Aztecs, their NCAA Tournament First Round game will be pretty much everyone's second NCAA Tournament game. For their outside scoring threat James Rahon, it's his first-ever NCAA Tournament game. That's the guy you are trusting to keep the defense honest.
For Jimmer it's NCAA Tournament game #5 (averaged 22 points/game in the first 4). For Jackson, Noah, and Abouo it's #4 (James Anderson also dressed for 4 NCAA Tournament games). For Davies and Magnusson it's #3 (Zylstra dressed for 3). That is big. BYU has THE guy and they have the experience. When non-BCS schools make a deep run in the tournament (Butler, George Mason, Davidson, Gonzaga) it takes those two things more than athleticism and rebounding. In the tournament, everyone has that (well, except for BYU and some of the 14-16 seeds). I think that's what gives BYU a better chance at a long tournament life. However, especially after BYU's up-and-down performance tonight, I'm not putting either of them in my Final Four. I would like to see SDSU win ONE NCAA Tournament game before I pick them to win four (they are 0-6 in their program's history). I'd also like to see a BYU player dunk in traffic before I'd pick them to win more than two...
CSU-BYU Preview, 2/23/2011
Tournament-Like Game
This game against Colorado State is pretty similar to BYU's first round NCAA Tournament game. It is an opponent they should beat, but is still probably good enough to be in the tournament. It is a "desperate" team fighting for its postseason life, just like the tournament will be. It's a balanced team, with a solid starting five at every position. There are some matchups that even favor CSU. The biggest difference between this game and the first round of the NCAA Tournament? This one is at home instead of a neutral site. As my father so aptly pointed out in a comment on the last post: if BYU can't win this one, they don't deserve a high seed in the tournament. I go one step further, if BYU can't win this one (and easily), you may want to think twice about how far you put them in your tournament bracket.
Last Time
BYU outscored this CSU team on the road last time, 94-85. Since scoring 85 against BYU in Fort Collins, CSU has scored 69, 74, 54, 59, 68, 69, and 61, with a 5-2 record in that span. BYU has scored 71, 77, 69, 78, 90, 72, and 79, going 6-1 since that game. While both teams offense has dipped since that shootout, BYU has maintained a higher level of scoring (with 4 of the 7 games on the road, compared to 3 of 7 for the Rams). And Jimmer scored under 30 points in 5 of the 7 games. So they are scoring more, from more places. CSU has become very big-man oriented the past few games. That leads to high-percentage shooting, but if Davies and Hartsock avoid foul trouble, CSU doesn't have other scoring options. The other factor is that BYU's 2-3 defense has been better of late, which will make it more difficult to score inside as well.
Jimmermania
This is the part of the first half of the conference schedule where Jimmer really got going. Part of that was the need, with so many other guys struggling the first round. Part of it was the competitive level of Jimmer, knowing that these are the three teams (CSU, SDSU, and New Mexico) that BYU needs to beat. Other guys aren't struggling right now, most of the team is playing well. However, BYU still needs this win, so I would expect Jimmer to still do some Jimmerific things. For a stretch he was overdribbling, overshooting, and trying to do too much. He can still perform at an insanely high level within the framework of the offense. I think he lost sight of that a little bit for those few games he wasn't getting the calls. I would expect a game where he shoots a higher percentage, turns the ball over less, and gets more assists. If not, it is probably a bad omen going into Saturday's game at SDSU.
Keys and Prediction
BYU should win this game running away. It is a team that they beat on the road by 9, with two starters in foul trouble, in the most electric atmosphere CSU has had at home in a long time. BYU fans should worry somewhat about Ogide who had a double-double against BYU the first time. Wes Eikmeier also torched BYU for 25 points, including 5 three pointers. However, Eikmeier's best scoring output on the road in MWC play was 14 points and 2 threes. I think Collinsworth, Abouo, and Emery will have a little more pride and hold him to a handful of contested baskets this time around. Ogide and Franklin are the keys for BYU: hold those two to under 35 points combined and BYU should hold CSU to under 70. If they do that, they'll win easily and move their record against the RPI top 50 to 8-1, with a 4-0 at home. Cougars 84, Rams 66.
This game against Colorado State is pretty similar to BYU's first round NCAA Tournament game. It is an opponent they should beat, but is still probably good enough to be in the tournament. It is a "desperate" team fighting for its postseason life, just like the tournament will be. It's a balanced team, with a solid starting five at every position. There are some matchups that even favor CSU. The biggest difference between this game and the first round of the NCAA Tournament? This one is at home instead of a neutral site. As my father so aptly pointed out in a comment on the last post: if BYU can't win this one, they don't deserve a high seed in the tournament. I go one step further, if BYU can't win this one (and easily), you may want to think twice about how far you put them in your tournament bracket.
Last Time
BYU outscored this CSU team on the road last time, 94-85. Since scoring 85 against BYU in Fort Collins, CSU has scored 69, 74, 54, 59, 68, 69, and 61, with a 5-2 record in that span. BYU has scored 71, 77, 69, 78, 90, 72, and 79, going 6-1 since that game. While both teams offense has dipped since that shootout, BYU has maintained a higher level of scoring (with 4 of the 7 games on the road, compared to 3 of 7 for the Rams). And Jimmer scored under 30 points in 5 of the 7 games. So they are scoring more, from more places. CSU has become very big-man oriented the past few games. That leads to high-percentage shooting, but if Davies and Hartsock avoid foul trouble, CSU doesn't have other scoring options. The other factor is that BYU's 2-3 defense has been better of late, which will make it more difficult to score inside as well.
Jimmermania
This is the part of the first half of the conference schedule where Jimmer really got going. Part of that was the need, with so many other guys struggling the first round. Part of it was the competitive level of Jimmer, knowing that these are the three teams (CSU, SDSU, and New Mexico) that BYU needs to beat. Other guys aren't struggling right now, most of the team is playing well. However, BYU still needs this win, so I would expect Jimmer to still do some Jimmerific things. For a stretch he was overdribbling, overshooting, and trying to do too much. He can still perform at an insanely high level within the framework of the offense. I think he lost sight of that a little bit for those few games he wasn't getting the calls. I would expect a game where he shoots a higher percentage, turns the ball over less, and gets more assists. If not, it is probably a bad omen going into Saturday's game at SDSU.
Keys and Prediction
BYU should win this game running away. It is a team that they beat on the road by 9, with two starters in foul trouble, in the most electric atmosphere CSU has had at home in a long time. BYU fans should worry somewhat about Ogide who had a double-double against BYU the first time. Wes Eikmeier also torched BYU for 25 points, including 5 three pointers. However, Eikmeier's best scoring output on the road in MWC play was 14 points and 2 threes. I think Collinsworth, Abouo, and Emery will have a little more pride and hold him to a handful of contested baskets this time around. Ogide and Franklin are the keys for BYU: hold those two to under 35 points combined and BYU should hold CSU to under 70. If they do that, they'll win easily and move their record against the RPI top 50 to 8-1, with a 4-0 at home. Cougars 84, Rams 66.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
"Soft" Bubble and A Week to Prep
"Soft" Bubble
This has been a commonplace term these days in college basketball. Is this the "softest" bubble ever? First, let's define what the Bubble is. The Bubble is a list of teams that have not played their way into the NCAA Tournament just yet. They are not good enough to be a single digit seed, and they are inconsistent enough that they might be an NIT team. So the Bubble is a collection of average teams with moments of brilliance, or brilliant teams with way too many moments of averageness. By its own definition, the Bubble is soft, it is entirely reduntant to call the Bubble soft.
The collection of teams on the Bubble this year have the same number of quality wins as last year. They have the same number of bad losses too. The Bubble this year is the same as the Bubble every year. The only difference between this year and last year is that there will be 3 less snubs because of 3 more at-large bids this season. Don't call the Bubble soft, just call it the Bubble.
The Week Off
A lot of people are doing a lot of crying about San Diego State having a bye before BYU both times when they play them. 1) That is the MWC schedule, deal with it. The schedule is set-up like that. Every year every team plays one team coming off a bye, twice. This year, BYU just happened to get the short end with SDSU getting the rest. 2) It is not a guaranteed advantage. Take, for instance, the last time BYU played SDSU after a bye and beat them by 13 points.
SDSU took Sunday and Monday off, when they would normally practice and prepare for games. So they will be rested. However, they are taking two days off of organized opportunities to improve. They will also go a week between games. There is definitely a chance to get a bit rusty and out-of-sync, particularly when the season is so regimented and structured. If it takes 10 minutes to get back into it, who knows what the score may be...on the other hand, if they come out gangbusters, then the rest was good for them and they used it properly. It is just like the argument about BYU and return missionaries: when they win, they have an unfair advantage, when they lose, the missions are killing them. BYU had a nice set-up as well: bye before a nice get the rust off game at TCU, followed with a game that will challenge them on Wednesday, all in preparation for the big one. No rust, there shouldn't be fatigue, and they should be mentally prepared having just been challenged at a high level.
This has been a commonplace term these days in college basketball. Is this the "softest" bubble ever? First, let's define what the Bubble is. The Bubble is a list of teams that have not played their way into the NCAA Tournament just yet. They are not good enough to be a single digit seed, and they are inconsistent enough that they might be an NIT team. So the Bubble is a collection of average teams with moments of brilliance, or brilliant teams with way too many moments of averageness. By its own definition, the Bubble is soft, it is entirely reduntant to call the Bubble soft.
The collection of teams on the Bubble this year have the same number of quality wins as last year. They have the same number of bad losses too. The Bubble this year is the same as the Bubble every year. The only difference between this year and last year is that there will be 3 less snubs because of 3 more at-large bids this season. Don't call the Bubble soft, just call it the Bubble.
The Week Off
A lot of people are doing a lot of crying about San Diego State having a bye before BYU both times when they play them. 1) That is the MWC schedule, deal with it. The schedule is set-up like that. Every year every team plays one team coming off a bye, twice. This year, BYU just happened to get the short end with SDSU getting the rest. 2) It is not a guaranteed advantage. Take, for instance, the last time BYU played SDSU after a bye and beat them by 13 points.
SDSU took Sunday and Monday off, when they would normally practice and prepare for games. So they will be rested. However, they are taking two days off of organized opportunities to improve. They will also go a week between games. There is definitely a chance to get a bit rusty and out-of-sync, particularly when the season is so regimented and structured. If it takes 10 minutes to get back into it, who knows what the score may be...on the other hand, if they come out gangbusters, then the rest was good for them and they used it properly. It is just like the argument about BYU and return missionaries: when they win, they have an unfair advantage, when they lose, the missions are killing them. BYU had a nice set-up as well: bye before a nice get the rust off game at TCU, followed with a game that will challenge them on Wednesday, all in preparation for the big one. No rust, there shouldn't be fatigue, and they should be mentally prepared having just been challenged at a high level.
Monday, February 21, 2011
2011 President's Day Thoughts
MWC a 3-Bid League
Barring a major upset in the MWC Tournament, SDSU, BYU, and UNLV will be the lone representatives from the MWC in the NCAA Tournament. It is also very likely that all three will receive single-digit seeds. New Mexico and Colorado State should be solid NIT teams, with CSU the more likely to get a home game in the first round. However, home losses by the Lobos (to Utah on a 3 at the buzzer) and Rams (to UNLV in a game controlled by the Rebels throughout) eliminated any realistic long-shot NCAA Tournament at-large bids. CSU could get back in the running by beating BYU and SDSU (both road games), but that is very unlikely. I would expect SDSU to get anywhere from a 1-3 seed. BYU should be 2-4. UNLV really could go anywhere from 6-11, depending on what the mood is of the Committee. Most of their quality wins came at home, but even at the Thomas & Mack they lost to two non-NCAA Tournament teams. They hold a win over Wisconsin at home and a neutral site win over K-State (without their two best players). Besides that, their best win was the one this weekend at Colorado State. If they can get one at the Pit on Wednesday, they would definitely secure a single-digit seed.
Crazy Rankings
I am not surprised BYU didn't move up in the polls (rising above ND in one of them). Where did anyone expect them to go? The top 4 teams lost, but BYU was never in jeopardy of jumping any of them this week with just a solitary win at TCU. If they go 2-0 this upcoming week, perhaps they could move into the top 5 next week. Maybe. No, the craziness in the rankings this week was that BYU received two 1st-place votes. They also received a 2nd-place vote. So where did these votes come from? If you guessed Jason Franchuk of the Provo Daily Herald, you are wrong. He had BYU at 6, which is about as high as I would feel comfortable putting them. No, the winners of the Bad Vote of the Week Award belong to an NPR guy from D.C. and a sports writer from Roanoke, Virginia. The 2nd place vote came from Tampa, Florida. I believe this is BYU's best team since Danny Ainge, and they belong in the top 10...but come on. I guess I can't blame them: they probably haven't been able to see BYU play! Both of the guys with BYU as #1 had SDSU as #2. I guess, if that is their logic, then BYU could be #1 with a 13-point head-to-head win over the #2 team...
BYU and the BCS Part III
A few weeks back I was looking at BYU's chances to make a BCS game in 2011. Part III from the series has not made it to print yet. The first part talked about the numbers game (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-i.html) while the second part looked at BYU's competition for one of the spots from the non-BCS teams (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-ii.html). That is still coming, I can assure you. I'm sure you all were dying to read it...it will come sometime in the next few weeks. I will get a lot more into football stuff once the Madness ends, including JC/USC transfers and new recruits that may have a chance to see the field in 2011. For now, let's just all enjoy Jimmermania and hope for a good NCAA Tournament draw, because BYU's success in the Tourney will, in part, be determined by not getting screwed by the Committee.
Barring a major upset in the MWC Tournament, SDSU, BYU, and UNLV will be the lone representatives from the MWC in the NCAA Tournament. It is also very likely that all three will receive single-digit seeds. New Mexico and Colorado State should be solid NIT teams, with CSU the more likely to get a home game in the first round. However, home losses by the Lobos (to Utah on a 3 at the buzzer) and Rams (to UNLV in a game controlled by the Rebels throughout) eliminated any realistic long-shot NCAA Tournament at-large bids. CSU could get back in the running by beating BYU and SDSU (both road games), but that is very unlikely. I would expect SDSU to get anywhere from a 1-3 seed. BYU should be 2-4. UNLV really could go anywhere from 6-11, depending on what the mood is of the Committee. Most of their quality wins came at home, but even at the Thomas & Mack they lost to two non-NCAA Tournament teams. They hold a win over Wisconsin at home and a neutral site win over K-State (without their two best players). Besides that, their best win was the one this weekend at Colorado State. If they can get one at the Pit on Wednesday, they would definitely secure a single-digit seed.
Crazy Rankings
I am not surprised BYU didn't move up in the polls (rising above ND in one of them). Where did anyone expect them to go? The top 4 teams lost, but BYU was never in jeopardy of jumping any of them this week with just a solitary win at TCU. If they go 2-0 this upcoming week, perhaps they could move into the top 5 next week. Maybe. No, the craziness in the rankings this week was that BYU received two 1st-place votes. They also received a 2nd-place vote. So where did these votes come from? If you guessed Jason Franchuk of the Provo Daily Herald, you are wrong. He had BYU at 6, which is about as high as I would feel comfortable putting them. No, the winners of the Bad Vote of the Week Award belong to an NPR guy from D.C. and a sports writer from Roanoke, Virginia. The 2nd place vote came from Tampa, Florida. I believe this is BYU's best team since Danny Ainge, and they belong in the top 10...but come on. I guess I can't blame them: they probably haven't been able to see BYU play! Both of the guys with BYU as #1 had SDSU as #2. I guess, if that is their logic, then BYU could be #1 with a 13-point head-to-head win over the #2 team...
BYU and the BCS Part III
A few weeks back I was looking at BYU's chances to make a BCS game in 2011. Part III from the series has not made it to print yet. The first part talked about the numbers game (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-i.html) while the second part looked at BYU's competition for one of the spots from the non-BCS teams (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-ii.html). That is still coming, I can assure you. I'm sure you all were dying to read it...it will come sometime in the next few weeks. I will get a lot more into football stuff once the Madness ends, including JC/USC transfers and new recruits that may have a chance to see the field in 2011. For now, let's just all enjoy Jimmermania and hope for a good NCAA Tournament draw, because BYU's success in the Tourney will, in part, be determined by not getting screwed by the Committee.
Friday, February 18, 2011
BYU-TCU Preview, 2/19/2011
BYU should take this game seriously after a fairly tight battle at home, which would spell doom for the Horned Frogs, who haven't won a game in 5.5 weeks. All but two of the 9 losses over that span have been by double-digits. Their best player was suspended, and the team has not responded. Worse yet, that suspended player was the man who shut Jimmer down in the first matchup. I'm sure Jimmer would love nothing more than matching his jersey number (32) in points against the Horned Frogs this time around.
Keys to the Game for BYU
1) Rust vs. Rest? Was the week off better to get their legs back or will it cause some shaky shooting. Collinsworth may be a bit rustier than the others, but he definitely needed the rest (his fatigued play looked a lot like rusty play...). Besides, the Cougars can use this game can shake the rust off before a difficult 3-game stretch starting next week. If BYU is REALLY rusty it may impact the outcome, but there is not reason that BYU shouldn't own this game from start to finish.
2) Collinsworth vs. Abouo? A lot of the talk this week has been about which player would start at the 3 in this game. I don't see any reason why both of them shouldn't play over 20 minutes. Jimmer can take a quick rest, Collinsworth can play the point on offense and Abouo could move up top in the 2-3 zone. Or if Davies or Hartsock get in foul trouble, those two can cover the 3/4 spots. If both are playing well, put them on the floor together. Give Jackson, Jimmer, and the big men a rest. The Cougars cannot go wrong.
3) Letdown vs. Ramp-up? Are the Cougars looking ahead to CSU, at SDSU, and New Mexico? Or are they just ready to play after getting Wednesday night off?
If BYU is mentally unprepared and physically rusty, they may have issues. Even then, I think Jimmer could put the team on his back in the first half until the others find their mojo in the second, that is if they don't start with it in the first place. I look for Hartsock and Davies to get more touches and get more involved, particularly if they are going to guard Jimmer 30 feet away from the basket.
Prediction
BYU wins, and plays well for long stretches in the process. Cougars 83, Horned Frogs 63.
Keys to the Game for BYU
1) Rust vs. Rest? Was the week off better to get their legs back or will it cause some shaky shooting. Collinsworth may be a bit rustier than the others, but he definitely needed the rest (his fatigued play looked a lot like rusty play...). Besides, the Cougars can use this game can shake the rust off before a difficult 3-game stretch starting next week. If BYU is REALLY rusty it may impact the outcome, but there is not reason that BYU shouldn't own this game from start to finish.
2) Collinsworth vs. Abouo? A lot of the talk this week has been about which player would start at the 3 in this game. I don't see any reason why both of them shouldn't play over 20 minutes. Jimmer can take a quick rest, Collinsworth can play the point on offense and Abouo could move up top in the 2-3 zone. Or if Davies or Hartsock get in foul trouble, those two can cover the 3/4 spots. If both are playing well, put them on the floor together. Give Jackson, Jimmer, and the big men a rest. The Cougars cannot go wrong.
3) Letdown vs. Ramp-up? Are the Cougars looking ahead to CSU, at SDSU, and New Mexico? Or are they just ready to play after getting Wednesday night off?
If BYU is mentally unprepared and physically rusty, they may have issues. Even then, I think Jimmer could put the team on his back in the first half until the others find their mojo in the second, that is if they don't start with it in the first place. I look for Hartsock and Davies to get more touches and get more involved, particularly if they are going to guard Jimmer 30 feet away from the basket.
Prediction
BYU wins, and plays well for long stretches in the process. Cougars 83, Horned Frogs 63.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)