So I have a rule with my Top Ten: you cannot lose to an unranked team and stay in it. The two just don't go together. Also, you can't win and drop. What sense does that make?
Mo's Top Ten
1. Oklahoma [previous: 1]
2. LSU [5]
3. Missouri [6]
4. Alabama [7]
5. Texas [8]
6. Georgia [3]
7. Penn State [Unranked]
8. BYU [9]
9. Boise State [10]
10. Auburn [Unranked]
Mo's Mid-Major Top Ten
1. BYU [previous: 1]
2. Boise State [2]
3. Utah [4]
4. Tulsa [6]
5. Fresno State [5]
6. TCU [3] (no shame in losing to the best team in the country on the road)
7. Ball State [8]
8. Navy [Unranked]
9. Air Force [Unranked]
10. Western Michigan [Unranked]
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
The Strength of Schedule Argument
Let me be clear about two things before I start: first, if there was anything we learned from last season (and last weekend) it's that it is way too early in the season to start predicting who will play in the National Championship game. Second, I am not saying that BYU is better than USC, I am not saying they would win in a head-to-head matchup, I am merely comparing schedules.
So, everywhere people are throwing out arguments, propaganda, etc. about BYU's, or any other non-BCS school's, chances of playing in a national championship game. The main argument against BYU making it is "who did they play?" Or "put them in [pick your BCS conference] and they would finish in the middle of the pack, if that." At the same time, USC, who already has one loss, is still in the national title discussion. So, I thought I'd rank the difficulty of BYU's schedule to USC's, and see if their schedule is that much worse that USC, with one loss, has a more valid argument to be in the NC game than an undefeated BYU team.
1. BYU @ Utah, Ohio State @ USC. Edge: BYU
Here's how I got there:
At the beginning of the season, it would seem very obvious Ohio State wins. However, Ohio State has been less than impressive in every game except the Youngstown State game. In fact, the pollsters put these two teams fairly equal (AP Poll: Ohio State #14, Utah #15; Coaches' Poll-used in BCS-: Ohio State #12, Utah #15; Harris Poll-used in BCS-: Ohio State #14, Utah #15). Factor in that USC got Ohio State at home, without Beanie Wells and with the QB situation in flux. Then consider that BYU plays Utah on the road and that it's a rivalry game.
2. BYU @ TCU, Oregon @ USC. Edge: BYU
Here's how I got there:
Well, essentially the same way as the previous one. The teams are about equal, but BYU plays TCU on the road. TCU's defense is much better than Oregon's, ranking in the top 15 in scoring, rushing, and total defense. Oregon's offense, however, is much better than TCU's, ranking in the top 15 in scoring, rushing, and total offense. Both of their rankings were similar last week and will be similar this week after USC dismantles Oregon.
3. BYU @ Air Force, USC @ Oregon State. Edge: USC
The teams may or may not be even (depends if you talk to a Pac 10 fan or an MWC fan). However, Corvallis is a tougher place to play than Colorado Springs. Confidence is huge in this one, as Oregon State knew they could beat USC, since they did it on the Trojans last trip up the coast. Meanwhile, Air Force has lost by 19 points or more in each contest against BYU since Bronco Mendenhall took over.
4. UNLV @ BYU, Arizona State @ USC. Edge: BYU
Arizona State is the obvious answer here, unless you remember a few weeks back when UNLV traveled to Tempe and beat Arizona State. You can't say much when a head-to-head matchup took place, and the road team won.
5. Wyoming @ BYU, California @ USC. Edge: USC
No contest.
6. New Mexico @ BYU, USC @ Arizona. Edge: BYU
Again, head-to-head matchup, New Mexico won. They were leading by two TDs with 5 minutes left in the game.
7. BYU @ CSU, Notre Dame @ USC. Edge: USC?
I'm not sure if Notre Dame is any good, but I know Colorado State isn't.
8. Northern Iowa @ BYU, USC @ Stanford. Edge: USC
The Best FCS team is still worse than a pretty bad Stanford team.
9. BYU @ Utah State, USC @ Virginia. Edge: USC
No contest.
10. SDSU @ BYU, USC @ Washington State. Edge: USC?
Let's face it, both of these schools are among the worst in the Football Bowl Subdivision. But playing in Pullman sucks bad. Being in Pullman sucks worse. Living in Pullman sucks worst. Maybe that's why Washington State sucks...
Common Opponents:
UCLA @ BYU, USC @ UCLA. Edge: USC
BYU hosted UCLA, USC has to travel the whole 5 miles for this rivalry game, where the stadium will be half-Trojan fans. Anything can happen in a rivalry game. The best team does not necessarily win.
BYU @ Washington, Washington @ USC. Edge: BYU
Road game vs. home game. Early in the season when expectations for a good season are high vs. later in the season when the expectations of a coach getting fired are high.
So, USC has 5 clear-cut advantages. BYU has 5 advantages. USC has two probable advantages, so the final score is USC 7, BYU 5.
That is not a large enough advantage to allow USC into the discussion with one loss and keep BYU out of the discussion. To be honest, I think both teams will drop one game and, therefore, be eliminated from the discussion anyway. But to disqualify BYU for lack of quality opponents is simply ridiculous. Now I'm not saying that the teams are equal, but their schedules are. So you can't eliminate one because of their schedule, unless you eliminate both, and I guarantee you, there isn't anyone in the country willing to eliminate both.
So, everywhere people are throwing out arguments, propaganda, etc. about BYU's, or any other non-BCS school's, chances of playing in a national championship game. The main argument against BYU making it is "who did they play?" Or "put them in [pick your BCS conference] and they would finish in the middle of the pack, if that." At the same time, USC, who already has one loss, is still in the national title discussion. So, I thought I'd rank the difficulty of BYU's schedule to USC's, and see if their schedule is that much worse that USC, with one loss, has a more valid argument to be in the NC game than an undefeated BYU team.
1. BYU @ Utah, Ohio State @ USC. Edge: BYU
Here's how I got there:
At the beginning of the season, it would seem very obvious Ohio State wins. However, Ohio State has been less than impressive in every game except the Youngstown State game. In fact, the pollsters put these two teams fairly equal (AP Poll: Ohio State #14, Utah #15; Coaches' Poll-used in BCS-: Ohio State #12, Utah #15; Harris Poll-used in BCS-: Ohio State #14, Utah #15). Factor in that USC got Ohio State at home, without Beanie Wells and with the QB situation in flux. Then consider that BYU plays Utah on the road and that it's a rivalry game.
2. BYU @ TCU, Oregon @ USC. Edge: BYU
Here's how I got there:
Well, essentially the same way as the previous one. The teams are about equal, but BYU plays TCU on the road. TCU's defense is much better than Oregon's, ranking in the top 15 in scoring, rushing, and total defense. Oregon's offense, however, is much better than TCU's, ranking in the top 15 in scoring, rushing, and total offense. Both of their rankings were similar last week and will be similar this week after USC dismantles Oregon.
3. BYU @ Air Force, USC @ Oregon State. Edge: USC
The teams may or may not be even (depends if you talk to a Pac 10 fan or an MWC fan). However, Corvallis is a tougher place to play than Colorado Springs. Confidence is huge in this one, as Oregon State knew they could beat USC, since they did it on the Trojans last trip up the coast. Meanwhile, Air Force has lost by 19 points or more in each contest against BYU since Bronco Mendenhall took over.
4. UNLV @ BYU, Arizona State @ USC. Edge: BYU
Arizona State is the obvious answer here, unless you remember a few weeks back when UNLV traveled to Tempe and beat Arizona State. You can't say much when a head-to-head matchup took place, and the road team won.
5. Wyoming @ BYU, California @ USC. Edge: USC
No contest.
6. New Mexico @ BYU, USC @ Arizona. Edge: BYU
Again, head-to-head matchup, New Mexico won. They were leading by two TDs with 5 minutes left in the game.
7. BYU @ CSU, Notre Dame @ USC. Edge: USC?
I'm not sure if Notre Dame is any good, but I know Colorado State isn't.
8. Northern Iowa @ BYU, USC @ Stanford. Edge: USC
The Best FCS team is still worse than a pretty bad Stanford team.
9. BYU @ Utah State, USC @ Virginia. Edge: USC
No contest.
10. SDSU @ BYU, USC @ Washington State. Edge: USC?
Let's face it, both of these schools are among the worst in the Football Bowl Subdivision. But playing in Pullman sucks bad. Being in Pullman sucks worse. Living in Pullman sucks worst. Maybe that's why Washington State sucks...
Common Opponents:
UCLA @ BYU, USC @ UCLA. Edge: USC
BYU hosted UCLA, USC has to travel the whole 5 miles for this rivalry game, where the stadium will be half-Trojan fans. Anything can happen in a rivalry game. The best team does not necessarily win.
BYU @ Washington, Washington @ USC. Edge: BYU
Road game vs. home game. Early in the season when expectations for a good season are high vs. later in the season when the expectations of a coach getting fired are high.
So, USC has 5 clear-cut advantages. BYU has 5 advantages. USC has two probable advantages, so the final score is USC 7, BYU 5.
That is not a large enough advantage to allow USC into the discussion with one loss and keep BYU out of the discussion. To be honest, I think both teams will drop one game and, therefore, be eliminated from the discussion anyway. But to disqualify BYU for lack of quality opponents is simply ridiculous. Now I'm not saying that the teams are equal, but their schedules are. So you can't eliminate one because of their schedule, unless you eliminate both, and I guarantee you, there isn't anyone in the country willing to eliminate both.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Is USC's title shot shot?
Can USC still make the National Championship? Without a doubt. Obviously it depends on them running the table. But if they did:
First off, let's take a look at how far they will probably drop. Let's look at what happened to teams ranked 1 or 2 last year when they lost to unranked opponents. USC was 1 and dropped to 7. Then number 2 California dropped to 10. South Florida was number 2 and dropped to 11. Boston College was 2 and dropped to 8. Ohio State went from 1 to 7. Oregon from 2 to 9. LSU went from 1 to 5. Missouri from 1 to 7. West Virginia from 2 to 11. So the average drop was 6.7 spots, the maximum drop was 9 and the minimum was 4. Looking at the current make-up of the top 12, obviously it depends on what happens this weekend, but I think they wouldn't drop any lower than 8, staying above Texas Tech, maybe even staying ahead of Wisconsin at 7.
Next, let's look at the schedules of the teams that would be ahead of them, 6 or 7 teams. 3 of them are from the Big 12: Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas. 3 of them are from the SEC: Georgia, Florida, and LSU. An undefeated Big 10 champ (Wisconsin or Penn State) could overtake USC. The Big East or the ACC champion, even if undefeated, wouldn't be able to pass up USC. The Mountain West champion couldn't overtake them either. So, only 1 Big 12 team can survive, 1 SEC team, and maybe 1 Big 10 team. If they run the table then, at worst, they would be 4th. For a Big 12 team to go undefeated and stay ahead of them they would have to beat 2 (or even 3 teams) currently in the top 10. For an SEC team to go undefeated and stay ahead of them they would have to beat at least 2 teams currently in the top 10 and maybe as many as 4 (beating one of them twice). For a Big 10 team to go undefeated, well, they'd have to be good...
Yes, USC certainly goes to the back of the line, however, the line will get shorter really quickly. If they take care of business, they'll be back to the front come December.
First off, let's take a look at how far they will probably drop. Let's look at what happened to teams ranked 1 or 2 last year when they lost to unranked opponents. USC was 1 and dropped to 7. Then number 2 California dropped to 10. South Florida was number 2 and dropped to 11. Boston College was 2 and dropped to 8. Ohio State went from 1 to 7. Oregon from 2 to 9. LSU went from 1 to 5. Missouri from 1 to 7. West Virginia from 2 to 11. So the average drop was 6.7 spots, the maximum drop was 9 and the minimum was 4. Looking at the current make-up of the top 12, obviously it depends on what happens this weekend, but I think they wouldn't drop any lower than 8, staying above Texas Tech, maybe even staying ahead of Wisconsin at 7.
Next, let's look at the schedules of the teams that would be ahead of them, 6 or 7 teams. 3 of them are from the Big 12: Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas. 3 of them are from the SEC: Georgia, Florida, and LSU. An undefeated Big 10 champ (Wisconsin or Penn State) could overtake USC. The Big East or the ACC champion, even if undefeated, wouldn't be able to pass up USC. The Mountain West champion couldn't overtake them either. So, only 1 Big 12 team can survive, 1 SEC team, and maybe 1 Big 10 team. If they run the table then, at worst, they would be 4th. For a Big 12 team to go undefeated and stay ahead of them they would have to beat 2 (or even 3 teams) currently in the top 10. For an SEC team to go undefeated and stay ahead of them they would have to beat at least 2 teams currently in the top 10 and maybe as many as 4 (beating one of them twice). For a Big 10 team to go undefeated, well, they'd have to be good...
Yes, USC certainly goes to the back of the line, however, the line will get shorter really quickly. If they take care of business, they'll be back to the front come December.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Mo's Top 10
Here was my top 10 from this morning. There's also a line about how they can improve. It's probably different now, though if USC comes back to win this game, they deserve to be where they at.
1. Oklahoma-um...give up less points? Tough to find anything yet...but they haven't played anybody either.
2. USC-join the Mountain West, improve the SOS.
3. Florida-offense, offense, offense: isn't that supposed to Urban Meyer's specialty? It hasn't looked like it so far.
4. Georgia-pass defense looks a little suspect. Good thing they play in the SEC and won't have to worry about it, EVER.
5. LSU-must repeat that 4th quarter performance from the Auburn game AT Florida a few games from now.
6. Missouri-play somebody! An overrated Big 10 team doesn't count. Defense hasn't looked great against sub-par competition (55th in scoring defense).
7. Alabama-punch it in in the red zone. Way too many field goals inside the 20, especially given the level of competition.
8. Texas-the game starts at the opening kickoff, don't wait until the second quarter to show up. That won't work in Norman, not even at Colorado or at Tech.
9. BYU-play half as well on the road as they do at home. They must dominate the next 2 games; win the games you are supposed to win, and win them big. USC, remember that next time.
10. Boise State-this may be too high for them, HOWEVER, look at the resume, RIGHT NOW. They have beaten a ranked team on the road. Very few teams can say that, in fact, Wake Forest is the only nationally ranked team not in my top 10 who can. Yes, they played a FCS team, but so did most other teams in the top 25.
After taking a good look at these teams, I think Florida has a real good shot at the national title, they will only play two more ranked teams (yes, in that powerful SEC, only two more, Vandy won't be ranked by the time they host Florida), one at home, one on the road. I would have said 2 hours ago that USC was a shoe-in too, but maybe not. Their conference isn't helping them out with their weak out of conference performance. However, if they drive down 98 yards in 3 minutes, and then win in OT, they will back to shoe-in status. Oklahoma gets their first test this weekend, maybe...
1. Oklahoma-um...give up less points? Tough to find anything yet...but they haven't played anybody either.
2. USC-join the Mountain West, improve the SOS.
3. Florida-offense, offense, offense: isn't that supposed to Urban Meyer's specialty? It hasn't looked like it so far.
4. Georgia-pass defense looks a little suspect. Good thing they play in the SEC and won't have to worry about it, EVER.
5. LSU-must repeat that 4th quarter performance from the Auburn game AT Florida a few games from now.
6. Missouri-play somebody! An overrated Big 10 team doesn't count. Defense hasn't looked great against sub-par competition (55th in scoring defense).
7. Alabama-punch it in in the red zone. Way too many field goals inside the 20, especially given the level of competition.
8. Texas-the game starts at the opening kickoff, don't wait until the second quarter to show up. That won't work in Norman, not even at Colorado or at Tech.
9. BYU-play half as well on the road as they do at home. They must dominate the next 2 games; win the games you are supposed to win, and win them big. USC, remember that next time.
10. Boise State-this may be too high for them, HOWEVER, look at the resume, RIGHT NOW. They have beaten a ranked team on the road. Very few teams can say that, in fact, Wake Forest is the only nationally ranked team not in my top 10 who can. Yes, they played a FCS team, but so did most other teams in the top 25.
After taking a good look at these teams, I think Florida has a real good shot at the national title, they will only play two more ranked teams (yes, in that powerful SEC, only two more, Vandy won't be ranked by the time they host Florida), one at home, one on the road. I would have said 2 hours ago that USC was a shoe-in too, but maybe not. Their conference isn't helping them out with their weak out of conference performance. However, if they drive down 98 yards in 3 minutes, and then win in OT, they will back to shoe-in status. Oklahoma gets their first test this weekend, maybe...
Picks, picks, picks
Week 4: 46-11 (81%)
Week 3: 43-11 (80%)
Week 2: 55-11 (83%)
Week 1: 61-12 (84%)
11's are wild. BYU sure thinks so. Maybe I'll only miss 10 this week...
Well, I'm watching USC-Oregon State right now. You see this all the time, once you get into conference play, teams start to struggle because of the familiarity factor. I still think USC will pull this one out, but crazy things happen in Corvallis from time to time. My pre-game prediction was 31-13, though Oregon State just scored its second TD, so it looks like the 13 is out of the question.
Here are some picks for this weekend's games:
Louisville over UConn, 27-17
Florida over Ole Miss, 41-20
Ohio State over Minnesota, 30-20
Miami over UNC 21-17
Northwestern over Iowa, 38-13 (Sutton rushes for 200+ after his "mystery" injury, questionable status)
ECU over Houston, 27-24 (3-straight 3-point losses for Houston)
Colorado over Florida State, 16-10
UCLA over Fresno State, 17-13 (this is a turning point game for UCLA-if this happens, the WAC takes a big hit)
Purdue over Notre Dame, 24-17 (Clausen and ND need to improve on 3rd downs)
Rutgers over Morgan State, 3-0 (just kidding, they'll win by more than 3, I hope)
California over Colorado State, 31-21
Texas A&M over Army, 24-3
Utah over Weber State, 42-16 (Whittingham will lose a big-time starter in the 4th quarter, or late in the 3rd, when they have no business being in the game)
SDSU over Idaho, 34-6
Nebraska over Virginia Tech, 24-14
Washington over Stanford, 28-13 (Huskies finally get a break in their schedule, a Pac 10 team!)
UNLV over Nevada 38-37 (shootout, anyone?)
TCU-Oklahoma prediction coming tomorrow. I'll post my top 10 later tonight, or tomorrow on my lunch break. I might have to make a few changes based on this USC performance......
Week 3: 43-11 (80%)
Week 2: 55-11 (83%)
Week 1: 61-12 (84%)
11's are wild. BYU sure thinks so. Maybe I'll only miss 10 this week...
Well, I'm watching USC-Oregon State right now. You see this all the time, once you get into conference play, teams start to struggle because of the familiarity factor. I still think USC will pull this one out, but crazy things happen in Corvallis from time to time. My pre-game prediction was 31-13, though Oregon State just scored its second TD, so it looks like the 13 is out of the question.
Here are some picks for this weekend's games:
Louisville over UConn, 27-17
Florida over Ole Miss, 41-20
Ohio State over Minnesota, 30-20
Miami over UNC 21-17
Northwestern over Iowa, 38-13 (Sutton rushes for 200+ after his "mystery" injury, questionable status)
ECU over Houston, 27-24 (3-straight 3-point losses for Houston)
Colorado over Florida State, 16-10
UCLA over Fresno State, 17-13 (this is a turning point game for UCLA-if this happens, the WAC takes a big hit)
Purdue over Notre Dame, 24-17 (Clausen and ND need to improve on 3rd downs)
Rutgers over Morgan State, 3-0 (just kidding, they'll win by more than 3, I hope)
California over Colorado State, 31-21
Texas A&M over Army, 24-3
Utah over Weber State, 42-16 (Whittingham will lose a big-time starter in the 4th quarter, or late in the 3rd, when they have no business being in the game)
SDSU over Idaho, 34-6
Nebraska over Virginia Tech, 24-14
Washington over Stanford, 28-13 (Huskies finally get a break in their schedule, a Pac 10 team!)
UNLV over Nevada 38-37 (shootout, anyone?)
TCU-Oklahoma prediction coming tomorrow. I'll post my top 10 later tonight, or tomorrow on my lunch break. I might have to make a few changes based on this USC performance......
Monday, September 22, 2008
The Mo Knows Mid-Major 10
1. BYU - even on a "down" offensive day the team scores 44 points (granted, 14 were scored by the defense). Bronco's defensive philosophy continues to work: defend the run and the deep ball. Give up the short passes and force them to drive down the field. The punter kicked well. The running game was working. The second and third string guys saw plenty of time. This keeps the starters rested, it develops depth for this year, and prepares next year's starters. It's a well-oiled machine in Provo these days.
2. Boise State - I thought by the end of the year, perhaps a little sooner, Boise State would prove to be the second best non-BCS team. They arrived there about a month or two ahead of schedule. Winning at Oregon is nearly impossible for non-conference foes, just ask Oklahoma. The last out-of-conference team to win at Autzen was the season-opener in 2004. The defense has had only one bad quarter the entire season, giving up 19 points to Oregon in a frantic 4th quarter comeback effort that fell short. Kellen Moore has been better than advertised. The line has been serviceable, at least in protecting the QB. They still need to open up more holes for Ian Johnson in the running game. BSU has been the most consistent non-BCS team, besides BYU.
3. TCU - the question with TCU was the offense. They have had solid defenses for years, they are currently number 1 in the country on that side of the ball, giving up a measly 183 yards/game. Andy Dalton has been more than adequate making plays in the passing game. He is also making plays with his feet as necessary. The running game has been spectacular, 12th in the country. This team looks scary good. They have the BIG game for the non-BCS this weekend, with a shot at number 2 Oklahoma. It might be back to reality for them this weekend, BUT, BUT, they might be the ones to bring OU back to reality.
4. Utah - would the real Utah please show itself? They DOMINATED Air Force up and down the field, all day long. They held Air Force to 53 yards rushing, and under 200 total yards. They threw for over 200 and rushed for just under 200. But they had to score with a minute left to take the lead for good. They only played a half against UNLV and Michigan. If they lose, it will be because their offense gives up as many points as it scores. I think that could still happen once or twice this year. They can't play like they have been against TCU, BYU, or even New Mexico or Oregon State. The defense has been solid, however.
5. Fresno State - well, despite the fact they forgot to play ANY defense, they still won a game over 2,000 miles from home in double OT. They played with the second-best team in the Big 10 (Penn State number 1, Wisconsin number 2) and nearly came away with a W. Their win against Rutgers has lost some luster in the past few weeks, but they have another statement game this weekend AT UCLA. They have the ability to take people out of their games and get in a dog fight. Too bad they have to play Boise State on the blue carpet.
6. Tulsa - is there a team left on their schedule that can hold them to less than 40 points and 500 yards? Well, there hasn't been one on the schedule so far to accomplish that (even New Mexico, who traditionally has a solid defense, couldn't hold them to less than 8 TDs). They've gone over 50 points and 600 yards twice. All this, while breaking in a new QB who is averaging over 400 yards a game. The defense could use some work, giving up 20+ points/game. If they continue to score 50 points a game, however, there isn't an offense on their schedule that can keep up.
7. ECU - well, it finally happened. The glass slipper is gone. I was not sold on ECU, and I am even more convinced that their season will end in single digit wins. Since C-USA went to the current format of 12 teams in 2 divisions, ECU hasn't won its division, and has lost at least two conference games each year. They have also been shaky on the road.
8. Ball State - Someone from the MAC was bound to have a good season. Ball State is looking like it, as they got an emotional win in-state this weekend against Indiana. They have won on the road, they have beaten a BCS team, and they have beaten two teams that played in bowl games last year. They don't have another team on their schedule that they couldn't beat, even without Love, their WR who went down against Indiana.
9. Troy - they gave Ohio State all they wanted in the Horseshoe. That isn't such a tough thing to do these days, but for a Sun Belt team it should be. The Buckeyes managed just 309 total yards on the boys from Troy. Now they get a shot at Oklahoma State and their man-coach, who is no longer 40. The offense is going to have to come around if they are going to compete, and, more importantly, if they want to stay in my top 10.
10. UNLV - I have to give UNLV a little love. They have defeated two BCS teams in overtime, including a ranked one on the road. They dominated most of the first half on the road against Utah. They have another chance to show something this week against in-state rival Nevada. Looking at their schedule they could actually get bowl eligible.
Looking ahead at Air Force's upcoming schedule, they could reel off 6 wins in a row to get to 9-1 and be ranked before hosting BYU on November 15th. Look for them to make an appearance in my top 10 in the next few weeks.
2. Boise State - I thought by the end of the year, perhaps a little sooner, Boise State would prove to be the second best non-BCS team. They arrived there about a month or two ahead of schedule. Winning at Oregon is nearly impossible for non-conference foes, just ask Oklahoma. The last out-of-conference team to win at Autzen was the season-opener in 2004. The defense has had only one bad quarter the entire season, giving up 19 points to Oregon in a frantic 4th quarter comeback effort that fell short. Kellen Moore has been better than advertised. The line has been serviceable, at least in protecting the QB. They still need to open up more holes for Ian Johnson in the running game. BSU has been the most consistent non-BCS team, besides BYU.
3. TCU - the question with TCU was the offense. They have had solid defenses for years, they are currently number 1 in the country on that side of the ball, giving up a measly 183 yards/game. Andy Dalton has been more than adequate making plays in the passing game. He is also making plays with his feet as necessary. The running game has been spectacular, 12th in the country. This team looks scary good. They have the BIG game for the non-BCS this weekend, with a shot at number 2 Oklahoma. It might be back to reality for them this weekend, BUT, BUT, they might be the ones to bring OU back to reality.
4. Utah - would the real Utah please show itself? They DOMINATED Air Force up and down the field, all day long. They held Air Force to 53 yards rushing, and under 200 total yards. They threw for over 200 and rushed for just under 200. But they had to score with a minute left to take the lead for good. They only played a half against UNLV and Michigan. If they lose, it will be because their offense gives up as many points as it scores. I think that could still happen once or twice this year. They can't play like they have been against TCU, BYU, or even New Mexico or Oregon State. The defense has been solid, however.
5. Fresno State - well, despite the fact they forgot to play ANY defense, they still won a game over 2,000 miles from home in double OT. They played with the second-best team in the Big 10 (Penn State number 1, Wisconsin number 2) and nearly came away with a W. Their win against Rutgers has lost some luster in the past few weeks, but they have another statement game this weekend AT UCLA. They have the ability to take people out of their games and get in a dog fight. Too bad they have to play Boise State on the blue carpet.
6. Tulsa - is there a team left on their schedule that can hold them to less than 40 points and 500 yards? Well, there hasn't been one on the schedule so far to accomplish that (even New Mexico, who traditionally has a solid defense, couldn't hold them to less than 8 TDs). They've gone over 50 points and 600 yards twice. All this, while breaking in a new QB who is averaging over 400 yards a game. The defense could use some work, giving up 20+ points/game. If they continue to score 50 points a game, however, there isn't an offense on their schedule that can keep up.
7. ECU - well, it finally happened. The glass slipper is gone. I was not sold on ECU, and I am even more convinced that their season will end in single digit wins. Since C-USA went to the current format of 12 teams in 2 divisions, ECU hasn't won its division, and has lost at least two conference games each year. They have also been shaky on the road.
8. Ball State - Someone from the MAC was bound to have a good season. Ball State is looking like it, as they got an emotional win in-state this weekend against Indiana. They have won on the road, they have beaten a BCS team, and they have beaten two teams that played in bowl games last year. They don't have another team on their schedule that they couldn't beat, even without Love, their WR who went down against Indiana.
9. Troy - they gave Ohio State all they wanted in the Horseshoe. That isn't such a tough thing to do these days, but for a Sun Belt team it should be. The Buckeyes managed just 309 total yards on the boys from Troy. Now they get a shot at Oklahoma State and their man-coach, who is no longer 40. The offense is going to have to come around if they are going to compete, and, more importantly, if they want to stay in my top 10.
10. UNLV - I have to give UNLV a little love. They have defeated two BCS teams in overtime, including a ranked one on the road. They dominated most of the first half on the road against Utah. They have another chance to show something this week against in-state rival Nevada. Looking at their schedule they could actually get bowl eligible.
Looking ahead at Air Force's upcoming schedule, they could reel off 6 wins in a row to get to 9-1 and be ranked before hosting BYU on November 15th. Look for them to make an appearance in my top 10 in the next few weeks.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
BYU-Wyoming
Wyoming is giving up about 19 points/game, in 3 home games, against less than stellar offenses. They are scoring 13 points/game, in 3 home games, against less than stellar defenses. Now they go on the road, against a stellar offense, and a defense that isn't quite stellar, but they did shut out a Norm Chow coached team.
BYU is giving up an average of 8.5 points/game at home, while scoring an average of 50. They could have averaged a whole lot more but they called the dogs off in the 3rd quarter against UCLA.
All signs point to a blowout. The play will point to a blowout as well. Not much need to analyze this one: BYU 48, Wyoming 10. The only questions are: will Max Hall throw for 300+? Will he throw for 5 TDs+? Will Unga rush for 100+? Will Pitta have 100+ receiving yards? Who will pick up the slack for Michael Reed, who will miss the next 2-4 weeks with an injury? What will we see from O'Neill Chambers? Will the defense record 5 sacks? Will Wyoming get to 300 total yards? Can Thunder and Lightning be contained? If Wyoming can get some of these questions answered in their favor, BYU might win by less than 38...
BYU is giving up an average of 8.5 points/game at home, while scoring an average of 50. They could have averaged a whole lot more but they called the dogs off in the 3rd quarter against UCLA.
All signs point to a blowout. The play will point to a blowout as well. Not much need to analyze this one: BYU 48, Wyoming 10. The only questions are: will Max Hall throw for 300+? Will he throw for 5 TDs+? Will Unga rush for 100+? Will Pitta have 100+ receiving yards? Who will pick up the slack for Michael Reed, who will miss the next 2-4 weeks with an injury? What will we see from O'Neill Chambers? Will the defense record 5 sacks? Will Wyoming get to 300 total yards? Can Thunder and Lightning be contained? If Wyoming can get some of these questions answered in their favor, BYU might win by less than 38...
Friday, September 19, 2008
Saturday games
Here's my picks for most this weekend's games.
Penn State over Temple
Georgia Tech over Mississippi State (big win for the ACC)
Northwestern over Ohio
Iowa over Pittsburgh
Purdue over CMU
Alabama over Arkansas
Boston College over UCF (closer than the experts think)
Maryland over EMU
Akron over Army
Missouri over Buffalo
UCLA over Arizona
Tulane over LA-Monroe
Florida over Tennessee
Oregon over Boise State
CSU over Houston (I think this game will decide the direction both of these teams go)
Michigan State over Notre Dame
UNC over Virginia Tech (ECU's wins look less appealing after this week)
Navy over Rutgers (both teams need a big win)
Southern Miss over Marshall
Florida State over Wake Forest (night game AT FSU, good luck Wake)
Indiana over Ball State
Tulsa over New Mexico
Arkansas State over Middle Tennessee State
Cincinnati over Miami (OH)
TCU over SMU
Fresno State over Toledo
Stanford over SJSU
UNLV over Iowa State
UTEP over New Mexico State
Still a little undecided on some of the other games: Vandy-Ole Miss, LSU-Auburn, and I am leaning back over to Air Force in the Utah-Air Force game, so we'll call that one undecided.
Penn State over Temple
Georgia Tech over Mississippi State (big win for the ACC)
Northwestern over Ohio
Iowa over Pittsburgh
Purdue over CMU
Alabama over Arkansas
Boston College over UCF (closer than the experts think)
Maryland over EMU
Akron over Army
Missouri over Buffalo
UCLA over Arizona
Tulane over LA-Monroe
Florida over Tennessee
Oregon over Boise State
CSU over Houston (I think this game will decide the direction both of these teams go)
Michigan State over Notre Dame
UNC over Virginia Tech (ECU's wins look less appealing after this week)
Navy over Rutgers (both teams need a big win)
Southern Miss over Marshall
Florida State over Wake Forest (night game AT FSU, good luck Wake)
Indiana over Ball State
Tulsa over New Mexico
Arkansas State over Middle Tennessee State
Cincinnati over Miami (OH)
TCU over SMU
Fresno State over Toledo
Stanford over SJSU
UNLV over Iowa State
UTEP over New Mexico State
Still a little undecided on some of the other games: Vandy-Ole Miss, LSU-Auburn, and I am leaning back over to Air Force in the Utah-Air Force game, so we'll call that one undecided.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Weekend predictions
Here are some predictions for weekend games:
FAU 24, Minnesota 21: two straight seasons beating the Gophers? Sure. Minnesota is 3-0, but they haven't played anybody half as good as FAU. Wait, that doesn't sound right.
ECU 27, NC State 28: Cinderella left her slipper back in Greenville. NC State will be up for this game more than the two Virginia squads were.
Troy 20, Ohio State 24: Ohio State's offense is going to be better than it has been this season. I think Pryor will enjoy his new, expanded role. Troy is good, but it's tough for anybody to win in Columbus.
Notre Dame 17, Michigan State, 28: Jimmy Clausen, welcome back to reality. They've eased in to the season nicely, but this game will remind the Irish QB about the 58 sacks last season. No more SDSU offense, no more 5 UNFORCED fumbles by Michigan, they are playing a team not in shambles for the first time this season.
Utah 28, Air Force 23: Air Force must establish the fullback. They must run Iso's. They've got to run the ball up the middle. The ends and OLBs for Utah are just too good. Will Utah's offense play a complete game? Not likely, they always struggle against disciplined defenses. Their offense is based on misdirection and trickeration. Discipline cancels that out to some degree. Utah has too much size and speed though.
Rutgers 13, Navy 27: I'm done with analysis, just trust my scores.
Boise State 24, Oregon 28
Idaho 49, Utah State 50: or 3, 2: 1-point game
New Mexico 27, Tulsa 38
LSU 11, Auburn 8 (or some other very odd score where LSU wins by 3: 12-9?)
Georgia 42, Arizona State 24
Houston 28, CSU 31
Fresno State 27, Toledo 24
TCU 39, SMU 10
UNLV 27, Iowa State 16
Wyoming, BYU: yeah right. You'll get my analysis for this game tomorrow night/Saturday morning.
FAU 24, Minnesota 21: two straight seasons beating the Gophers? Sure. Minnesota is 3-0, but they haven't played anybody half as good as FAU. Wait, that doesn't sound right.
ECU 27, NC State 28: Cinderella left her slipper back in Greenville. NC State will be up for this game more than the two Virginia squads were.
Troy 20, Ohio State 24: Ohio State's offense is going to be better than it has been this season. I think Pryor will enjoy his new, expanded role. Troy is good, but it's tough for anybody to win in Columbus.
Notre Dame 17, Michigan State, 28: Jimmy Clausen, welcome back to reality. They've eased in to the season nicely, but this game will remind the Irish QB about the 58 sacks last season. No more SDSU offense, no more 5 UNFORCED fumbles by Michigan, they are playing a team not in shambles for the first time this season.
Utah 28, Air Force 23: Air Force must establish the fullback. They must run Iso's. They've got to run the ball up the middle. The ends and OLBs for Utah are just too good. Will Utah's offense play a complete game? Not likely, they always struggle against disciplined defenses. Their offense is based on misdirection and trickeration. Discipline cancels that out to some degree. Utah has too much size and speed though.
Rutgers 13, Navy 27: I'm done with analysis, just trust my scores.
Boise State 24, Oregon 28
Idaho 49, Utah State 50: or 3, 2: 1-point game
New Mexico 27, Tulsa 38
LSU 11, Auburn 8 (or some other very odd score where LSU wins by 3: 12-9?)
Georgia 42, Arizona State 24
Houston 28, CSU 31
Fresno State 27, Toledo 24
TCU 39, SMU 10
UNLV 27, Iowa State 16
Wyoming, BYU: yeah right. You'll get my analysis for this game tomorrow night/Saturday morning.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
The Mo Knows Mid-Major 10
1. BYU-they may not have beat the best team of any non-BCS school, but they have the best win. It's tough to argue with 59-0. It's tough to argue with 2-0 against the Pac 10. It's tough to argue with a Heisman contender. It's tough to argue with all the Bruin bodies flying through the air, including their linebackers. It's tough to argue with 2 straight undefeated runs through conference. It's tough to argue that BYU is NOT the number one non-BCS school.
2. East Carolina-they are the only non-BCS team to beat TWO ranked teams. I am still waiting to see how they do on the road, in conference, against a team that isn't Tulane (they haven't won more than 4 games since 2004 when they won 5). They have proven they can beat good teams at home. Let's see how they do AT NC State. Also of note, they haven't won a conference title since 1999.
3. Utah-they continue to make the argument that they are the best/most talented non-BCS team. After watching the UNLV game, however, I continue to believe that they have a long ways to go as a program. After an uninspiring first half, they left their starters in the game until 42-14 and under 6 minutes left in the game. Oh, and those starters ran a trick play with a 3-TD lead in the 4th quarter. Show me some class, show me developing depth by playing 2nd and 3rd stringers, show me you understand why you have injury problems (like leaving starters in the game when it's already decided).
4. Tulsa-they just continue to win by putting up obscene offensive numbers. They haven't even played a home game yet and they're 2-0. New Mexico comes to town this week, who is 1-2. It will be Tulsa's only real test for the next month-plus. They have been a bit overshadowed by ECU and the MWC. Let's not forget, they outscored BYU in a game last year when BYU's offense was clicking; they are the first team to do that in a few years.
5. TCU-their defense is scary good. 8 points/game includes a roadie in-conference and a home game against a Pac-10 team. Their offense always has good RBs and WRs, so it all depends on Andy Dalton. If he continues to make the strides he has made, BYU and Utah might leave their game with the Horned Frogs a bit unhappy. OU looms large next week, but they have in-state "rival" SMU first.
6. Boise State-not a whole lot of beef on the schedule so far, but they have a chance to make the kind of statement the MWC made with a victory at Oregon. Well, before the season, I had them dropping this game, before finishing with 9 straight wins. I'm not so sure they can't pull it off this weekend, but it's Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have only lost 4 times the last 3 seasons there, and none of them were out of conference games. The Broncos offense is coming around a bit slower than I thought, but the defense has been as good as, if not better than, advertised.
7. Ball State-could this be right? Ball State? Well hey, they can score points with the best of them. Their defense looks like an Achilles Heel and I think this weekend it might show against Indiana. I wouldn't be sad to see them win this game at all. The MWC brought down the Pac 10 last weekend, let's get the MAC attacking the Big 10! Not so fast, my friend. I don't even think they'll win their division in the MAC (Central Michigan will take care of that), but they are a nice early season story.
8. Fresno State-don't let the loss to Wisconsin fool you. If, and it's a big IF, no other non-BCS teams go undefeated and they win out (granted, playing at Boise State the last game of the season will be a tough one), they could sneak in to the dance. They only have 12 spots to climb, and, if they win out, they'll 10 wins to do it with. Unfortunately, their win at Rutgers is looking less impressive with each embarrassing performance the Scarlet Knights have. The Bulldogs have taken advantage of their opponents' (and the officials') mistakes and their defense has stymied a Big East and a Big 10 team already.
9. Air Force-they just do what they do: run the football, play disciplined defense, and, well, that's it, that's what they do. Oh, and win. Calhoun must have the magic formula out there in Colorado Springs. The schedule hasn't exactly been tough, but that all changes this week with Utah coming to town. They did beat the Utes last year. I'd like to make it down to this game, but, there's too much on TV at the same time! Looks like the cupboard wasn't as bare as I thought.
10. Troy-I really like Troy. Call me crazy, but I think they actually have a chance at Ohio State this week. They are certainly getting them at the right time, as I am sure the Buckeyes are questioning themselves and they are in the middle of a QB transition. OSU is a team without an identity. Where Troy has an identity: they are tough, hard-nosed, overlooked by the SEC, athletes who want to prove they are tough, hard-nosed, overlooked by the SEC, athletes. I think they will come up just short, but they deserve mention here at 2-0. The win at Middle Tennesse looks even better in hindsight as MTSU beat Maryland and played Kentucky close on the road. Troy looks like what I thought Florida Atlantic would look like.
2. East Carolina-they are the only non-BCS team to beat TWO ranked teams. I am still waiting to see how they do on the road, in conference, against a team that isn't Tulane (they haven't won more than 4 games since 2004 when they won 5). They have proven they can beat good teams at home. Let's see how they do AT NC State. Also of note, they haven't won a conference title since 1999.
3. Utah-they continue to make the argument that they are the best/most talented non-BCS team. After watching the UNLV game, however, I continue to believe that they have a long ways to go as a program. After an uninspiring first half, they left their starters in the game until 42-14 and under 6 minutes left in the game. Oh, and those starters ran a trick play with a 3-TD lead in the 4th quarter. Show me some class, show me developing depth by playing 2nd and 3rd stringers, show me you understand why you have injury problems (like leaving starters in the game when it's already decided).
4. Tulsa-they just continue to win by putting up obscene offensive numbers. They haven't even played a home game yet and they're 2-0. New Mexico comes to town this week, who is 1-2. It will be Tulsa's only real test for the next month-plus. They have been a bit overshadowed by ECU and the MWC. Let's not forget, they outscored BYU in a game last year when BYU's offense was clicking; they are the first team to do that in a few years.
5. TCU-their defense is scary good. 8 points/game includes a roadie in-conference and a home game against a Pac-10 team. Their offense always has good RBs and WRs, so it all depends on Andy Dalton. If he continues to make the strides he has made, BYU and Utah might leave their game with the Horned Frogs a bit unhappy. OU looms large next week, but they have in-state "rival" SMU first.
6. Boise State-not a whole lot of beef on the schedule so far, but they have a chance to make the kind of statement the MWC made with a victory at Oregon. Well, before the season, I had them dropping this game, before finishing with 9 straight wins. I'm not so sure they can't pull it off this weekend, but it's Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have only lost 4 times the last 3 seasons there, and none of them were out of conference games. The Broncos offense is coming around a bit slower than I thought, but the defense has been as good as, if not better than, advertised.
7. Ball State-could this be right? Ball State? Well hey, they can score points with the best of them. Their defense looks like an Achilles Heel and I think this weekend it might show against Indiana. I wouldn't be sad to see them win this game at all. The MWC brought down the Pac 10 last weekend, let's get the MAC attacking the Big 10! Not so fast, my friend. I don't even think they'll win their division in the MAC (Central Michigan will take care of that), but they are a nice early season story.
8. Fresno State-don't let the loss to Wisconsin fool you. If, and it's a big IF, no other non-BCS teams go undefeated and they win out (granted, playing at Boise State the last game of the season will be a tough one), they could sneak in to the dance. They only have 12 spots to climb, and, if they win out, they'll 10 wins to do it with. Unfortunately, their win at Rutgers is looking less impressive with each embarrassing performance the Scarlet Knights have. The Bulldogs have taken advantage of their opponents' (and the officials') mistakes and their defense has stymied a Big East and a Big 10 team already.
9. Air Force-they just do what they do: run the football, play disciplined defense, and, well, that's it, that's what they do. Oh, and win. Calhoun must have the magic formula out there in Colorado Springs. The schedule hasn't exactly been tough, but that all changes this week with Utah coming to town. They did beat the Utes last year. I'd like to make it down to this game, but, there's too much on TV at the same time! Looks like the cupboard wasn't as bare as I thought.
10. Troy-I really like Troy. Call me crazy, but I think they actually have a chance at Ohio State this week. They are certainly getting them at the right time, as I am sure the Buckeyes are questioning themselves and they are in the middle of a QB transition. OSU is a team without an identity. Where Troy has an identity: they are tough, hard-nosed, overlooked by the SEC, athletes who want to prove they are tough, hard-nosed, overlooked by the SEC, athletes. I think they will come up just short, but they deserve mention here at 2-0. The win at Middle Tennesse looks even better in hindsight as MTSU beat Maryland and played Kentucky close on the road. Troy looks like what I thought Florida Atlantic would look like.
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