The WAC

1. Boise State: 11-1 (8-0)
2. Fresno State 9-3 (7-1)
3. Nevada 7-5 (6-2)
4. New Mexico State 6-6 (5-3)
5. Hawaii 6-7 (4-4)
6. Louisiana Tech 4-8 (2-6)
7. San Jose State 3-9 (2-6)
8. Utah State 2-10 (2-6)
9. Idaho 1-11 (0-8)

Why Boise State WILL WIN: for the exact reason "experts" think they won't: offense. Since Chris Peterson took over as offensive coordinator in 2001, the Broncos have averaged 41 points/game and have only had one season where they averaged less than 5 TDs a game (34.3 in 2001-his first season). Even with a bad defense (which is not the case for this team), it's tough to lose a game where you score 41 points. They recruit as well as any non-BCS team, especially at the skill positions. They'll have good receivers and they still have Ian Johnson. The defense is supposed to be the strong suit of this team, but they will have a potent offense by mid-season, too bad Oregon is at Autzen Stadium, otherwise...

Why Fresno State WON'T WIN: because they play at Boise State. For most non-BCS schools, there isn't much of a home field advantage (20-30K per game isn't all that intimidating), but BSU happens to be one of them. In the past when non-BCS teams receive BCS hype in the preseason, an early season loss has carried over to the next game. They would lose to Wisconsin anyway, but it will sting even more after the loss at Rutgers, can they recover from 0-2?

Why Nevada WON'T WIN: the administration backed out of a contract to play BYU at the last minute so they could schedule Grambling and "ensure bowl eligibility." To me, talented and confident teams, teams that are good enough to compete, don't worry about bowl eligibility: this isn't the sign of a potential conference champion. At Hawaii is tough, at Fresno is tougher, and Boise State at home is no picnic either. A new defensive coordinator might help out the defense, but Texas Tech will show everyone early in the season that the secondary is a weakness, and they'll prove how big (or small) of a weakness it is.

Why New Mexico State WON'T WIN: they aren't good enough. They could sneak a 7th win this season but that might be too much to ask for a team coming off of a 9-loss season. They will throw for about 400 a game though, so that's exciting! They'll also give up a ton of yards. They don't have the firepower to outslug the heavyweights of the conference.

Why Hawaii WON'T WIN: because everyone is gone. It's a bad sign when the coach of an undefeated WAC team jumps ship for a 1-11 Conference-USA team, even if it is SMU. He must have known what was coming. With that said, strong line play keeps them afloat, but with a 13th game, they need 7-6 for bowl eligibility. That will be a struggle with Florida, Oregon State, Washington State, and Cincinnati on the schedule (best case scenario is probably 1-3 there).

Why LA Tech WON'T WIN: pass defense. You can't be as bad at it as LA Tech is in this conference. Lack of defense will cost them winnable games against Hawaii, San Jose State, New Mexico State, and Nevada. The New Mexico State game should be a tribute to the Old WAC: first one to 50 wins.

Why SJSU WON'T WIN: you have to score to win games. They were last in the WAC in scoring last year, 103rd in the country, and this year figures to be a struggle as well as they lost their QB and leading rusher, not that they could run the ball anyway. I think week 7 is rock bottom as I think Utah State will beat them.

Why USU WON'T WIN: because they don't have an offense, or a defense. They figure to be better on defense than they were last year as they return 9 starters from a team that showed improvement throughout the season, though several of those returners will be at new positions this year. They don't have good receivers to throw to and they don't know who is going to be throwing to them anyway. That is a bad sign with the season so close.

Why Idaho WON'T WIN: because the only conference game they could win is on the road, Utah State. They can't pass the ball, which is bad for a team that will need to mount huge comebacks starting early in the second quarter. They can't hold on to the ball, they can't punt, they can't keep other teams out of the end zone, etc. This season won't look as bad as last season but they have a LONG way to go. They'll be lucky to win 2 games and there is NO CHANCE they win 3.