Well, the AP poll came out this weekend. There was only one non-BCS school in the top 25 (though there were five in the "others receiving votes"), with BYU coming in at number 16. For a point of reference, last year there were 3 in the top 25, but none in the top 20, and 3 in the "others receiving votes." In 2006 there was only 1 ranked team (not in the top 20) and 6 in the others receiving votes. Kirk Herbstreit lambasted the voters for voting a non-BCS school at 16, saying that they need to stop "force-feeding the next Boise State or Utah" on us, let those teams earn it throughout the course of the season. He said last year Hawaii was forced on America and we all know how that ended against the University of Georgia. He also said that Fresno State is better than BYU, though he didn't seem to think they deserved to be ranked either.
I tend to agree with Herbstreit in saying "let those teams earn it." However, I disagree in saying that BYU or Fresno State haven't earned it. Besides, why do BCS schools get to "earn it" without having to play any games this season but the non-BCS ones have to earn it on the field? BYU won 11 games two years in a row, including a bowl victory both years against BCS teams, and they return 9 offensive starters from last year and 6 guys who have started multiple games in their careers (two were injured last season so don't count as "returning" starters) on defense. Fresno State won 9 games last year, including two against BCS teams, and they return 16 starters. Why can't they have earned it prior to the season? Why should 6-6 last season Alabama or 9-4 I-play-in-the-Big-Least-Conference South Florida automatically get ranked higher than BYU or Fresno State just because they play in better conferences (though the Big East is debatable)?
The message boards at more-popular-than-my-blog sites fill up with all kinds of comments about the polls. BYU fans say BYU is back, the national media is finally respecting us, this proves that we are better than Utah, etc. Utah fans say the preseason polls don't mean anything, BYU's schedule is soft, etc. So I thought I'd give my thought on what preseason polls mean.
First, the preseason poll means very little to a great team or a bad team. Last year Missouri didn't start in the polls and ended up 4th. Louisville started at 10th and didn't even get a single vote in the final polls. If BYU turns out to be a Louisville team, starting at 16 means nothing. They would lose several games and no one would be talking about them again for the rest of the season except about how they had a disappointing season.
If BYU turns out to be a Missouri team (though they couldn't lose two games like the Tigers did), starting at 16 makes a huge difference. Realistically speaking, if BYU went 12-0, with their two BCS opponents, they COULD and likely would finish in the top 5. It wouldn't really impact the BCS game they play in or their opponent, unfortunately. However, regardless of what their final ranking is, starting at 16 and going undefeated would guarantee a BCS game, where starting out of the rankings and going undefeated might not guarantee the scraps from the big dawgs.
The third scenario is if BYU turns out to be only a good team: it gives them some room for error. Last season, starting out of the rankings and losing two games, BYU still finished 17th in the final BCS standings. The year before in the same situation (though they were COMPLETELY off the radar prior to that season), they finished 20th. So, starting at 16th, even losing a game they would probably still finish in the top 12 and get a guaranteed berth to a BCS game. Even losing two games they could be in the top 15 and be in the mix for an at-large bid.
In short, if BYU is as bad as some hateful Utah fans think, their preseason ranking won't matter because they'll be 0-12. If BYU is as great as some boastful BYU fans think (and if everyone else manages to lose two games AGAIN this year), their preseason ranking will give them a potential shot at the National Championship game because they'll be 12-0 and only have 14 spots to climb (just one spot a week). If BYU is as good as they have been the past few years, their preseason ranking will be fairly equivalent to their postseason ranking. I personally think the ranking will be very beneficial, as, at 11-1, they will still get that guaranteed BCS game and the paycheck that goes with it. That's the difference between starting at no. 16 and no. 26.
In conclusion, the preseason polls don't mean anything, but they make a big difference.
Kirk Herbstreit is a MORON! If I were an ESPN junkie (like you), I wouldn't be rooting for BYU! (you do have BYU losing to UTAH; and you call your self a fan)
ReplyDeleteI usually like Herbie, but he's not making any sense here. The fact that Utah and Boise State went undefeated and won BCS bowl games should prove to him that non-BCS schools can compete with the big boys, if only every once in a while. BYU has gone undefeated 2 years in a row in conference and has the longest win streak in the country- what do they have to do Herbie? Your last line is a good description of the AP poll...
ReplyDeleteComments from me-papa (who still can't log-in and post):
ReplyDeleteExcellent points made. I agree wholeheartedly. However, we must always remember that if BYU played in a BCS conference they would never get ranked, they would never win their conference, and they would become another decent team. We have played three BCS teams in a bowl game the last three years. We got beat by one, clobbered another one, and lucked out to beat the third one. And these were middle of the road teams in a decent conference at best. So let us stay where we are, be content with ever being ranked, use our lesser quality athletes as best we can, and hope we can find magic in a bottle and only have to play one great team a year (in a BCS bowl) and maybe win one sometime. The big problem with the current system is that if a non BCS team does indeed catch lightning in a bottle, they never get the chance to prove it in the Championship Game. Maybe if BYU goes undefeated they will get that chance, but not without a lot of complaining by the Herb's of the world. But you can't really blame them as they know they get better athletes than the non BCS schools and know that if any non BCS school played in a BCS conference they would be fair or decent at best, with few if any exceptions (one being a team going to the Big East). Even at that I doubt the Y could compete for the top tier in even the Big East. Just some thoughts.