Non-BCS Top 10

There is often a debate when it comes to those preseason polls we all care too much about. The argument is whether you ought to vote for teams based on how good they are/should be going in to the season OR whether you ought to vote for teams based on how good they will/could be at the end of the season. Lucky for me, this is my blog and I can do what I want. So I am going to put my preseason top 10 AND my should-be-by-the-postseason top 10.

Preseason top 10:
1. BYU
2. Fresno State
3. Utah
4. Tulsa
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Central Michigan
8. New Mexico
9. Florida Atlantic
10. Navy

Why BYU? Because the defense is not as inexperienced as you might think. Yes, they return only 3 starters from last year's team. However, the other 8 have all played in at least 10 games (one of them at TE but he knows what "game speed" is in Division I football) in Division I. 5 of them have had starts in their career. So, while they may not be bringing back starters, they are not exactly playing true freshmen. Plus, their schedule (and being in the MWC) helps them out as none of their opponents have a really potent offense like Tulsa did last year (best in the country). They have also had the benefit of going against BYU's offense for the past few weeks. The offense should be, well, BYU-like. They'll probably average around 35 points a game, which should help the defense get acclimated. Punting was a bit inconsistent last year and they attempted the fewest field goals in the country last year. Kick returns were quite good but punt returns were atrocious. Special teams might be what kicks them out of the top spot.
Why not Fresno State? Because I picked BYU instead. I think it's a close race since Fresno State returns practically everybody, but they return from a 9-4 squad where BYU is coming off back to back 11-2 seasons. They didn't have any losses to bad teams, but they had 4 of them and one of them was by over 30 points. They have the talent to challenge for the WAC and the BCS, but they don't have the schedule for it.
Why not Utah? Because the offense, while talented, hasn't been good since Urban Meyer left. Brian Johnson, who claims this team is the best he has ever been on (he was on the 2004 Fiesta Bowl team), is no Alex Smith. His decision-making, while better last year, wasn't what you would expect from a two-year starter, I know he was hurt, but injuries don't cause mental mistakes. The defense is good enough to place them in the number one spot, but until they prove they can score against 2-10 UNLV, I couldn't in good conscience put them at #1.
Why not anybody else? Going in to the season, there is no one as talented and deep as these 3. But they have the whole season to change that, and some of them will.

Post-season top 10:
1. BYU
2. Boise State
3. Tulsa
4. Utah
5. Fresno State
6. TCU
7. Navy
8. Central Michigan
9. New Mexico
10. Florida Atlantic

Reason for changes: Boise State is starting a freshman QB and there will be a learning curve associated with that. However, by season's end, he'll practically be a sophomore. Their tough conference games are on the blue turf, and Oregon is the only huge obstacle out of conference. 10 wins seems like a distinct possibility and 11 wouldn't be all that surprising.
Tulsa could easily go 11-1 and I don't see them as any worse than 9-3. Either way, they will win their division and go to the C-USA championship game and have a chance for a 12th win before bowl season (or a 10th).
Fresno State finishes 5th entirely because of their schedule. 9-3 would be great. It will be extremely difficult to get 10 wins, and there will be 4 teams that do get 10, so, as is the nature of the polls, they drop to 5th.
Navy will be good by season's end. The offense may struggle early, but it's Navy: the option on offense and discipline on defense which is all they will need to get to 8 or 9 wins.
Central Michigan has a tough non-conference schedule, and, while I can't fault them for that, an 8 or 9 win MAC team isn't a high caliber team, no matter how you slice it. If they play some defense this year (which they might), then they could sneak in to my top 5, but it's tough to just outscore everybody you play, ask Hawaii. You have to play some defense. Tulsa, remember that too!
For the 10th spot it's really a toss-up between FAU, Southern Mississippi, Central Florida, and Troy. They will probably all win 8 games, possibly 9, but not 10. While I think the Sun Belt is going to be better this year, even 9 wins for a Sun Belt team isn't quite as good as 8 for a team in C-USA, the MWC, or the WAC. It might be better than 8 in the MAC, but not by much.