When making college football predictions, one has to pick a starting point. I have decided to start with...the Sun Belt? With the smallest attendance, the least publicity, the fewest bowl tie-ins, and some of the worst teams in football, why not.
Here are some of the top post-season headlines you might read about the Sun Belt (if articles were ever to be written about the Sun Belt):
1. Florida International does what it could not last year: go defeated!
-The only potential obstacle is recent I-A addition Western Kentucky in the last game of the season. WKU, the scrawny new kid on the block, knows that the way to show you belong is to find someone weaker than you and pick on them. Good for you guys! Last year, FIU waited until the final game to win its first, will history repeat itself?
2. With a bowl victory, Schnelly's FAU Owls reach 10 wins.
-It's possible. Never underestimate the power of Howard Schnellenberger in a pink suit.
3. Biggest positive turnaround: North Texas
4. Biggest move in the wrong direction: loser of the Arkansas St/Middle Tenn St game.
Final Standings Projection:
1. FAU 9-3 (7-0)
2. Troy 8-4 (6-1)
3. L-Mon 6-6 (5-2)
4. North Texas 6-6 (4-3)
T-5. Ark St 3-9 (2-5)
T-5. L-Laf 3-9 (2-5)
T-5. MTSU 3-9 (2-5)
8. FIU 0-12 (0-7)
Brief team-by-team description:
FAU: returning 10 offensive starters from a good 2007 squad. After a 3-3 start last year, got things turned around going 5-2 down the stretch, including a bowl victory.
Key games: @Minnesota, week 4. A win here could get them to 10-but Minnesota won't lose to this Sun Belt team two years in a row will it?
vs. Troy, week 7. For the second straight year, the conference title comes down to this game. And for the second straight year, the Owls pull it out...maybe.
Troy: they do things the right way at Troy: balanced and productive offense, hard-nosed defense, and high-quality opponents. Last year they played well against 3 ranked SEC opponents on the road, averaging 30 points a game (of course they gave up nearly 50). They will only have two ranked roadies on the schedule this year: LSU and Ohio State!
Key games: @ LSU, week 2. I'm sure Troy will give LSU a run for their money early on, but come on, at LSU?
@Ohio State, week 4. The horsheshoe is a very unkind place for visitors. The men of Troy will give a noble effort, but fall like every other team that visits Columbus this fall.
@FAU, week 7. They couldn't close it out against FAU last year, and FAU should have an even better offense this year (as opposed to the one who dropped 38 on Troy last year!).
L-Mon: The rushing attack will be there again. They defense should be better. However, they won't get over the hump this year.
Key game: @Tulane, week 4. A win here could give them a winning record for the season, but if you'll notice, I had them at 6-6.
North Texas: they should be a bit more balanced this season with some talented underclassman running backs. They love to throw the ball, but they have some speed in the backfield that may help open things up. A 4-game turnaround isn't too much to expect from these guys.
Key games: vs. Tulsa, week 2. If you want to watch 700+ passing yards in a game, this is the one to watch. Unfortunately, North Texas' defense was the worst scoring defense in the country last year.
@Rice, week 5. It seems a little late to be getting your first win of the season, but they start @Kansas State, then Tulsa, @LSU, bye week, before finally getting a beatable opponent.
Arkansas St: good thing they have a I-AA opponent and they play in the Sun Belt, otherwise they might be in real trouble. Their rush defense was bad last year. Will it improve with age? They've got a lot to replace on the O-line as well.
Key game: vs. MTSU, week 4. Last year was pretty bad on the road in Tennessee. It should be a high scoring game, since neither team will be sporting much defense.
L-Laf: best rushing team statistically in the conference. Of course, they don't waste any plays trying to pass, so they better have good rushing numbers!
Key game: vs. Kent State, week 4. This game could rival Air Force vs. Navy for most rushing yards in a game this season. Still not worth watching.
MTSU: that's an abbreviation for Middle Tennessee State, in case you weren't sure. They did score 42 against Louisville last year. Of course, the next week they played a real defense (LSU) and didn't manage a single point!
Key game: @Arkansas State, week 4. If there were such thing as home field advantage in the Sun Belt, they might lose this game. Lucky for them there may only be 10,000 people at this game.
FIU: 9 of their offensive starters are returning this year! Of course, they were dead last in the NCAA in points scored, so maybe that's not such a good thing. At least on defense they only have to return 5 of their starters. They gave up 24 points more per game last year than they scored. Makes you wonder how they even won ONE game, but they did. They won't this year.
Key game: @Toledo, week 5. Toledo may be the only team they can run the ball on. Unfortunately, they'd need over 250 yards to keep the game close. My guess is: 160 on the ground, 7 on the scoreboard, 0-4 next to their record.
Western Kentucky: oh my bad, not actually in the Sun Belt! They are trying to make their case to join though with 5 games against Sun Belt opponents. It makes it easy for scheduling if they join, they'd only have to add 3 teams to the schedule! Last year they were 2-1 against Sun Belt opponents. This year I've got them at 1-4 against the Sun Belt this year, with the lone win against winless FIU.
Next up: MWC predictions and/or Top Ten Mid-Major Team Rankings (haven't decided yet)
you are losing readership with these types of posts...I didn't read this post, and I won't read anything about sucky conferences...and as your most loyal reader, you'd better take note.
ReplyDeleteMichael, do you do your posts at work?? I wouldn't recommend it!!! :-) I agree with Bram, write about something that doesn't include SUCKY conferences!
ReplyDeleteONLY I KNOW how much time and effort Mo put into this "interesting" (my first word was stupid) post! So Boomer at least read it please!
ReplyDeleteFor every loyal reader lost, these types of post gain 3 new ones.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the perspective.
Spot on, Michael! KUDOS!
ReplyDeleteThe "Suck" Belt as it is often played on as since it is completely and 100% true, is the most inferior league of misguided 1-A wannabes and time-wasting football programs in the history of college football's highest division.
The reason why their attendance figures suck is because the entire league is comprised of teams nobody cares about or would want to waste their time watching. Who wants to watch a game involving Middle Tennessee State University and Florida International University? Say that 10 times fast! Mary Poppins would have a harder time saying MTSU's full name then she would "supercalifragilisticachesmealadocious."
And then there's FAU. Howard's how old? The man already says that he won't leave FAU and will keep at it until his health fails. My bet is that Howie won't be alive by the time FAU fans see their half-pipe Big East dream world come crashing down. That'll be here in a few short years.
FIU=Probation U. Probably deserves the death penalty because the school doesn't even deserve a football team and should've never fielded one. There's a reason why they've lost almost every game they've played. In Miami there is only the Hurricanes.
Troy State will recruit anybody including academically challenged JUCOs like Omar Haugabook or potheads like Kenny Mainor. Larry Blakeney learned at Auburn who not to trust while at Troy State and how to better recruit while bending the rules and covering his tracks. I'm sure he's doing a better job of keeping things on the down low especially in southern Alabama in the middle of nowhere. If you have half a brain or at least the ability to play football, you can easily attend Troy State and graduate Summa Cum Laude.
North Texas could've gone to a more real conference four years ago with the WAC but AD Dick Villareal commits the most bone-headed administrative move in the history of the Sun Belt by actually deciding to remain in the least profitable, least-respected conference in the Football Bowl Subdivision and turns down a chance to play on the same field with Boise and Hawaii. I guess UNT just doesn't want to lose as bad to conference foes as they would an Oklahoma or Texas. The WAC would've presented a tougher challenge athletically.
The Louisiana-hyphenates are not only two of the poorest athletic programs financially in D I, but they are also two of the least competitive all-time. Anybody else catch McNeese State walking all over the Cajuns this past year? That was hilarious and expected. ULL shouldn't feel bad, their inbred sisters from Murfreesboro, TN also can't beat lower division schools (most recently losing to FCS-affiliate Western Kentucky on national television).
Last but not least is the Native American offending Jonesboro boys from Arkansas State. What Indian tribe would want to endorse such a lousy athletics program? Don't feel bad, ULM had do the same. Maybe if ASU and ULM weren't part of such a crappy conference and fielded decent teams, the area native American tribes could take more pride in them. Then again, neither school did jack to relate to their area ancestry. Maybe they could learn how to treat heritage from Florida State.
The good news is that any other conferences that you blog about, dude, will at least be about schools and leagues that are at least less suckish!
Why the Sun Belt? If their fans don't care why would we.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I finally decided to read this post, and though I don't care any more about the Sun Belt than I did before, you mixed in some good humor, though I still can't imagine how much time you wasted on the research...don't you have diapers to change?
ReplyDelete