#5: Colorado State University

6-6, 4-4
I have a feeling that either SDSU, UNLV, or CSU are going to have a breakout year (sad for fans of those teams that 6-6 is a breakout year). I decided on CSU over SDSU and UNLV for two reasons: first, they have a veteran ball club. They are returning a decent amount of starters (14) and it's likely that 17 starters will be upper classmen (barring injuries during fall camp). These guys have been through the wars and will be ready to win a couple this time around. Second, new blood in the coaching staff. Last year, Troy Calhoun came in at the Academy and took a bunch of upperclassmen and got them to exceed expectations. I believe Coach Fairchild can do the same. He inherits two solid running backs in Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell as well as a senior QB. He doesn't have a ton of game experience but I'd take CSU's QB situation over UNLV or SDSU's!
CSU will have a solid running game. As an OC in the NFL, Fairchild always had good running games. They have decent size up front with 4 of 5 linemen pushing or over 300 pounds. That should help in the trenches. Bell should be running stronger this year, now that he is further removed from the ACL tear of 2006 and can help Johnson establish a POWER running game. Those two guys, when healthy, are a load to bring down. The QB situation should be helped a bit by the good hands they have at wideout and tight end. They don't necessarily have the size at receiver they might like, but they are big enough in this conference.
Defensively, I like the secondary. CSU had a great pass defense last year (29th in the country) and they should be even better this year. Pagnotta at strong safety spot can flat out hit and opposing receivers should plan on getting jacked up when cutting through the middle of the field. I think Kubiak will do a fantastic job at the other safety position. The run defense was horrid last year, no getting around that. Wyoming was the only team that didn't break 100 on them (99). They gave up over 200 yards 7 times, and over 300 3 times. They only played Air Force once, so that is inexcusable! If they can keep opponents down around 150, they should be close enough to win games.
Bad losses: Colorado, week 1, at Invesco Field (Mile-High), @California, week 5. Two potential statement games against BCS opponents: 0-2.
Good wins: Houston, week 4. Houston scored two TDs down the stretch to beat CSU last year. Wyoming, week 13. This makes them bowl eligible again. The Rams are headed in the right direction.
Potential season-changers: @Cal, won't happen but it's nice to dream. If they could pull off an upset against Utah or @TCU, that'd be huge. 5th place wouldn't be too bad for this Rams squad, especially given what the rest of the conference expects of them.