#4 and #3

#4-New Mexico
Record: 8-4; 6-2
Offense: Rodney Ferguson is going to have to be the man as UNM lost a lot at WR. Lucky for Lobo fans, he is going to have a 1200 yard season. Porterie made progress as the season went on last year but he had some great targets to hit that won't be there this year. They have good size up front but they are very green. Unfortunately, facing TCU and Texas A&M the first two games won't help. The Arizona game will be their first opportunity to get the passing game going.
Defense: Rocky Long always has a good defense, but this year he might have a great one. The front 6 is quite experienced but a little undersized, which won't matter in most of their games but against the likes of TCU, A&M, BYU, and Utah it will show.
Outlook: They are one of the most consistent teams since the inception of the MWC. They are always good for 6 wins (at least since 2000). Last year they were good for 9 and their first bowl victory since the 1961 Aviation Bowl! The question is, can they build off that momentum (that's a ridiculous question, how can momentum last 8 months???)? I'm predicting a strong finish, but they'll come a little slow, mostly due to the competition level. The schedule isn't great starting with TCU in conference, followed by two BCS-conference teams. They also don't get a bye during the season, 12 weeks, 12 games!
Good wins: Arizona week 3, Utah week 10
Bad losses: Losing to TCU, Texas A&M, Tulsa, and BYU aren't bad really. We'll call Tulsa a bad loss, since everyone said it was a bad loss for BYU last year.
Potential season-changer: TCU, game one. Rocky Long has already given his excuses for losing that game so I think they will just go ahead and do so. A&M would be a huge one too. 0-2

#3-TCU
Record: 9-3; 6-2
Offense: This might be the first year in Gary Patterson's tenure that the offense starts out ahead of the defense. It won't last very long though. The QB situation last year was a bit dicey as they did some shuffling mid-season when the offense fluttered with their true freshman Andy Dalton. After sophomore Marcus Jackson didn't do much better, they went back to the frosh who had a great FRESHMAN campaign by all accounts. Dalton, however, needs to have a good season for this to be a special year, not just a good "sophomore" season. The run game should be better, provided Brown is healthier. That guy is just quick. Line play should be strong, big, physical, experienced, hungry, etc. They are a little weak at receiver, but it's TCU, they are going to have athletes on the field.
Defense: They have a few holes to fill on the D-Line. However, their defense is so unorthodox, fast, and hard-hitting that having some new faces on the line shouldn't hold them back. Their ends tend to be more speed rush/finesse-oriented and less run D/power-oriented but their LBs are strong against the run to make up for it. They've got some active bodies in the back 8 capable of creating turnovers, getting sacks, and making receivers wished they played Juco ball. By the end of the season, 3-5 of those guys will be all-conference performers: Phillips, Priest, Hodge, Henson, Coleman could all get named. They lack depth, which will probably do them in against Oklahoma, as it did against Texas last year: in it after 3 quarters, but blown out by the end.
Outlook: 4-0 start isn't bad, probably enough for a top-25 ranking, especially with wins against Stanford and "revamped" SMU. They'll space their losses out enough that they might get a second sniff, but they'll hang out in the top 35 most of the year.
Good wins: New Mexico, Stanford, SMU (that actually could be a fun game to watch)
Bad losses: Oklahoma, BYU, and Utah (none of these are bad as all 3 will spend some time in the top 20 this season and it's possible that 2 of them could be BCS-bound)
Potential season-changer: OU, week 5. They shocked the Sooners in 2005 in Norman. This would put them at 5-0 and shift some of the BCS-darling talk off of Utah and BYU (Fresno State will be out of the picture by week 2, if not week 1) and put it on the Horned Frogs. However, it's OU: they don't choke until their BCS game.