ACC: Mo's 2014 Predictions

I'm starting to run out of time to give a brief run-down on every team, so I'll just post the ratings and conference record of every team, as based on my model, starting with the ACC.

Florida State	2
Louisville	22
Miami	28
Duke	38
Clemson	40
Virginia Tech	43
Syracuse	50
North Carolina	63
Georgia Tech	70
Boston College	71
NC State	73
Pittsburgh	75
Virginia	86
Wake Forest	115

Atlantic
Florida State	8-0
Louisville	7-1
Clemson	6-2
Syracuse	4-4
NC State	3-5
Boston College	2-6
Wake Forest	0-8
Coastal
Duke	7-1
Miami	6-2
Virginia Tech	6-2
North Carolina	4-4
Pitt	2-6
Georgia Tech	1-7
Virginia	0-8

I don't agree with the Georgia Tech record necessarily.  It figures to be somewhat of a rebuilding season and they have 3 games on the road against ACC teams they would beat on a neutral field.  My model has those as close games, but all losses.  In reality, I think they'll pull off one or two of those along with another "upset" but some teams never figure out how to win on the road: if that is GT's lot this season then it could be a long one.  Duke isn't the best team in the ACC Coastal, but they have the most favorable schedule: they avoid Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson from the Atlantic Division and get Virginia Tech at home.  If Louisville can start the season off with a win against Miami, I like that 7-1 conference record as they play 4 straight easy games after that and can gain confidence for a young QB and young defense.  If they lose that, then I'd flip them with Clemson.

On a side note, Notre Dame goes 3-1 against the ACC, losing at Florida State while pulling off wins at home against North Carolina and Louisville while beating Syracuse on a neutral field.

Big Ten Conference: Mo's 2014 Predictions

Breaking the alphabetical trend, I thought I’d jump to the Big Ten (or Fourteen) next.  With a season-ending injury to Ohio State’s Braxton Miller, I thought I’d take a look at Ohio State and the rest of the Big Ten with him done-zo.  First off, I don’t typically update my model to reflect injuries: too many teams and injuries to figure out the impact of every single one.  Secondly, one look at Ohio State’s team vs. their schedule and he might be the difference in maybe one game in the regular season, two at the most.  Their schedule is that easy.

 

As much as I hate to admit it Ohio State, with Braxton Miller, is a top 5 type of team.  Without him, they are almost certainly still a top 25 type of team, if not higher than that.  They are still coached by the (biggest jerk who happens to also be the) second-best college football coach in America.  They still manage to pull in top recruits, year after year.  They are the best team in the Big Ten with Braxton Miller, they are probably still the 2^nd best team without him, at worst the 3^rd.  Even if they fell to 3^rd, they only play one of the other two: a game at Michigan State that my model had them losing even with Miller.  Their non-conference schedule should be a cake walk for an Urban Meyer-coached squad and the conference slate has them avoiding anyone of consequence from the other division.

 

Because it is a legitimate Heisman candidate, 3-year starting QB, and because it is Ohio State and Urban Meyer (and I love having any good reason to downgrade them), I will remove his aura from the model.  I will tell you, however, my model had Ohio State at 11-1 before the injury and the model still projects 11 wins for Ohio State.  Like I said, the schedule was that easy.  It moves the comfortable wins into tighter affairs and a couple of what should have been good wins are a lot closer to toss-up territory as a result.  There are 2 other potential tweaks I will make to my model before the season starts, but for now, here are the "rankings" of Big Ten teams relative to all of CFB.

 

Michigan St	11
Wisconsin	20
Ohio St	25
Iowa	34
Indiana	35
Michigan	37
Minnesota	41
Nebraska	49
Maryland	59
Rutgers	60
Northwestern	62
Penn St	64
Illinois	78
Purdue	93

 

Ohio State was #5 prior to the injury.  Michigan State is no surprise near the top 10.  Wisconsin should have another solid team.  Iowa, Indiana, and Minnesota surprised me being rated as high as they are, but they are pretty seasoned teams that took some lumps playing younger players and this is the payoff season.

 

All in all, I think this will be one of the more balanced years we see throughout the Big Ten.  I suppose that happens when the top is a little bit weaker than it traditionally is.  Purdue and Illinois are really the only freebies, regardless of venue.  Penn State, NW, Rutgers, Maryland will all be tough on the road.

 

The standings have changed with the additions of Rutgers and Maryland, so here is a quick recap of where everyone lines up this season:

East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers

West: Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin

 

East (in order of projected finish)

Michigan State is stacked.  They have an early season test on the road against Oregon, which will really test their young defense.  After that, however, I suspect that Sparty wins every game by double digits.  For as balanced as the conference is, the cream should rise to the top.

 

Ohio State will probably go 10-2 or better and Urban Meyer's amazing job recovering from the loss of Braxton Miller will be one of the storylines of the year.  I think that storyline is awful, but ESPN will pound that into our heads all season long.  The fact is the Big Ten isn't that difficult, Ohio State has a decent team, and there are 20-30 teams that could navigate the Buckeyes schedule 10-2/11-1.

 

Michigan hasn't been able to quite get over the hump under Brady Hoke.  They may have some issues on the offensive line this season, particularly against Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State (model has 3 losses), but the rest of the schedule is manageable, a theme with the bigger Big Ten schools over the better part of the last 50 years.  The model projects lots of close games for Michigan, so there is a chance to be upper echelon or a possibility of dropping to barely bowl eligible.

 

Indiana has an unfortunate schedule this season.  They're going to lose to Michigan State regardless, but potentially winnable (for Indiana) games for them are mostly on the road: Iowa and Michigan.  I think that makes it a season where the Hoosiers should make a bowl game, but the chance for one of those once in a blue moon seasons for them is slim.  They have a lot coming back from a team that managed a 5-7 year.  That is not a bad season in Indiana, actually.  They don't have a storied history, but the future, at least for this year, looks good.

 

Penn State's bowl game is in Ireland the first week of the season.  They aren't eligible for any real postseason play, so I admire the choice to get a game like this against UCF.

 

I don't expect Maryland to win many games after September.  They have been trending in the right direction the past two seasons but I don't think they have the size upfront to sustain anything in their first time through the Big Ten.

 

Rutgers is coming into the Big Ten at as good a time as they could have in terms of their team.  They are experienced and will only add more talent as their profile increases.  The Scarlet Knights play one of the top 25 toughest schedules in the country and the toughest one in the Big Ten.  They play multiple non-conference road games (a rarity for a Big Ten team: I guess they didn't get the memo) and their Big Ten crossover games are at Nebraska and at home against Wisconsin.  My model puts them short of bowl eligibility b/c of the difficult schedule.

 

West (in order of projected finish)

Wisconsin figures to be a really good team this season.  Outside of a neutral site game against a good, but beatable LSU team, the only challenge will be on the road at Iowa the 2nd to last game of the season.  My model projects the winner of that game to win the division.

 

Iowa was the biggest surprise to me in my entire model.  I had not anticipated a possible 10-win season from them but combination of a favorable schedule and a top 35 rankings puts that in reach.  Every now and again they put together a great campaign and this looks like the season.  Their crossover games are Indiana and Maryland (both projected wins).  Their toughest in-division games are at Minnesota and the aforementioned home game against Wisconsin.

 

Nebraska has to travel to Fresno State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa.  I guess they didn't get the memo about Big Ten scheduling either.  It was bound to be somewhat of a rebuilding year anyway, but that schedule won't help appease the fan base that is already itching for a return to their former glory.  They also play at Northwestern and the home game against Minnesota is no gimme either (especially if the Huskers already have 3 or 4 losses).  Nebraska takes a step back in 2014.

 

Minnesota has as brutal a 4-game stretch as anyone in the Big Ten.  They play Iowa and Ohio State at home before traveling to Nebraska and Wisconsin.  They also play at TCU and Michigan.  If they can pull off a 3-3 record in those games (certainly possible: my model has 4 of those 6 games playing out within a FG), I think we're looking at a top 25 type of team here.

 

When the schedule and the team align, Northwestern can do good things.  I think the team has some experience and is capable of a few upsets.  However, it'll be somewhat of an uphill battle to get to a bowl game this season b/c the schedule doesn't quite align.  A couple of their "toss-up" games come on the road: they are losing to Wisconsin and Notre Dame regardless of venue.

 

Illinois has an experienced team but it's not a very good one.  I think the best Illini fans could hope for is 2 wins in conference play, though my model projects just 1 (Purdue).

 

Purdue seems to be in constant rebuilding mode.  My model projects a non-conference loss to CMU and a winless Big Ten campaign.  I'd be shocked if they didn't pull off a 3rd win somewhere b/c I think their DL is actually pretty strong, but the model caps them at 2.

 

So the model predicts a Wisconsin-Michigan State Big Ten Title game, a not out-of-reach top 10 ranking for Ohio State, and a surprising Iowa team almost certainly bound for the top 20.  As of now, Michigan State would be 4-point favorites over Wisconsin in that title matchup.

American Athletic Conference 2014 Predictions

Let's dive right into predictions with the first conference alphabetically, the AAC.  The headline for this group coming into this season was how the conference, as a whole, would respond after UCF's great BCS Bowl game performance last season.  UCF figures to rebuild somewhat this season (at least offensively), Houston is young but very dangerous, ECU and Cincinnati are both not too far behind those two and may even finish ahead of one or both in the final standings.

My rating system has the AAC, not surprisingly, as the 6th best conference.  The average rating of AAC teams is 76.82 with Houston leading the charge, coming in as the 33rd best team in the country.  The conference is weighed down by several sub-100 teams: SMU and Temple.  Here are the ratings based on my model:

Houston	33
UCF	44
ECU	48
Cincinnati	53
Tulane	77
USF	81
Connecticut	82
Tulsa	98
Memphis	99
SMU	106
Temple	124

In addition to being the highest rated team, Houston also has a favorable conference schedule.  They host #2 UCF, they avoid #3 ECU, and don't play Cincinnati until the final week of the season when they may already have the conference title wrapped up.  Houston, to me, is a very dangerous team regardless of schedule.  They took a few lumps with a true freshman at QB last season, but still finished a very respectable 8-5.  They return 17 starters from that team.  They are still quite young but not inexperienced.  They have one of the top WRs in the country, in my opinion, in Deontay Greenberry and have a solid complement to him in the smaller, shiftier Daniel Spencer.  They also return their entire rushing attack and a good portion of the OL.  They have a reasonably difficult non-conference schedule, hosting UTSA (who is one of my sleeper picks this season), traveling to BYU, and hosting UNLV who is coming off their first bowl appearance in 13 years last season.  My model calls for an undefeated run through conference play for them, with possibilities against UTSA and at BYU, it's not out of the realm of possibilities to see them a potential top 15 team.

UCF plays Penn State in Ireland, travels to Missouri, plays at Houston, before hosting BYU.  They close the season at AAC#3 ECU.  My model has them 8-4, 6-2 in AAC play.  If that offense doesn't come around quickly, that defense will be under a lot of pressure to keep that loss total at 4 or less.

Cincinnati is a bit of a dark horse, in terms of the conference standings.  They are one of the more experienced teams in the league and finished 9-4 last year.  They get Houston and ECU at home, while avoiding UCF.  Games at Ohio State and at Miami make it unlikely to see them hit the 10-win mark unless they pull off wins against both ECU and Houston.  As it is, my model puts them 9-3, with a close win against ECU and a close loss against Houston rounding out a 7-1 conference season.

ECU travels to South Carolina and Virginia Tech, hosting North Carolina, in non-conference play.  1-2 wouldn't be too bad.  They get UCF at home (3-point win) and travel to Cincinnati (3-point loss).  9-3, also 7-1 in AAC.

There is a huge dropoff after ECU in terms of quality of teams in the AAC.  The next 6 in the conference come in two bunches, with Tulane, USF, and UConn.  My model has Tulane and USF at an even 4-4 in conference play, with UConn going 3-5.  The model has all 3 teams just a play or two within making a bowl game.  Hard to belief this was a USF program that was ranked #2 in the country at one point a few years back (granted, that was a serious overevaluation of their abilities at the time, but pollsters have clout in college football and sometimes all they see is W-L record).

The final teams in the AAC are somewhat clumped together as well, with Tulsa, SMU, and Memphis just a few places apart in the rankings, with Temple a distant last.  None of the three made a bowl game last year and my model predicts a similar outcome for this upcoming season.  Temple is the closest pick to go 0-12, but an FCS game on the schedule probably gives them at least one win.  The model does put them within striking distance in 2 games, so I guess one could say the model predicts 1 win, caps them at 3.

2014 Pre-Season Insights

I have been feverishly working, day and night, the past two weeks on my pre-season rankings.  I guess it's more of a tool to predict team's records than an actual ranking system.  Because it is a data-driven analysis, I often end up with random Sun Belt or CUSA teams in my "top 25" (teams that my model predicts to win their conferences tend to move up in these rankings, which is why I don't consider them rankings as much as predictive indicators).  Realistically for me, it's more about trying to figure out what teams are going to perform and what ones will be sitting home in late December/early January, who might surprise this season, and how BYU is likely to do.  I am ultimately just trying to quantify my gut.  However, in putting together data for all 128 FBS teams, I see and learn a lot about teams.  So here are a few random observations.

If you ask the average Big Ten or College Football fan who is going to have more success early in their Big Ten tenure, Maryland or Rutgers, 9 out of 10 would probably say Maryland.  After combing through a lot of information about the two teams, I think that's probably a Herbstreit-level analysis.  If you go into any kind of detail at all about the teams, at worst, it's not a clear cut answer, at best, Rutgers is better poised for immediate success.  Some times, it is all about timing and situation.  Both teams appear to have challenging schedules as they transition to new conferences.  Rutgers is coming into it with more experienced (but still young in some cases) QB, offensive line, and defense (which are 3 very important items in the Big 10).  Their more winnable games are at home and the games they were going to lose anyway are on the road, where the reverse is true for Maryland.  The first two years, if I had to guess, Rutgers would be the team to get more wins.  In year one, it may come down to the winner of the regular season finale between the two teams...

I never thought I would say this but I think the SEC may actually be amazingly good from the top all the way to the bottom.  Kentucky and Tennessee should be practically free wins but they still have the ability to surprise, Vanderbilt probably won't be that challenging but is coming off the greatest stretch of football in school history, and Arkansas has massive OL/DL to contend with, even in the absence of quality skill position players.  Everyone else could have a legitimate chance to see the top 25 this season.  There are 6 teams I believe have a shot, if the ball bounces their way, to be in the top 10.  Obviously, it's the SEC, so any team that wins 9 games will receive top 10 love from pollsters, but this year, I think the league is strong enough top-to-bottom, and through the middle, to warrant that love.

The Pac 12 went out and scheduled.  My model puts 7 of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country in the Pac 12 (the other three in the top 10 are Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Tennessee).  9 of the 12 Pac 12 schools play more difficult schedules than the AVERAGE SEC schedule.  Washington plays the easiest schedule with an FCS team, the worst FBS team (according to my model), and add a bad Big Ten team in Illinois, but they also play 13 regular season games b/c they start at Hawaii.

It's going to be a tight squeeze in that 4-team playoff.  The Pac 12 and SEC champs are almost certainly guaranteed.  I'm not as sure about the other 3 conference champions.  From the ACC, Florida State is the only possibility, though their SOS might hold them back b/c their ACC slate is so weak.  From the Big Ten, Ohio State would be almost certain, Michigan State's schedule is worse than Florida State's, and no one else is probably good enough to knock off one of those two.  From the Big XII, any undefeated team theoretically has a chance, but Oklahoma is the only team good enough, with an easy enough schedule, to do it.  It'll be interesting to see how important Strength of Schedule ends up being in determining the playoff contenders.  I think it'll end up being SEC and Pac 12 champs and, by default, 2 other conference champs, assuming the choices are obvious.  It's not entirely out of the realm of possibilities to see one of those conferences snubbed in favor of a 2nd Pac 12 or SEC team.  Looking at schedule strength, which the Committee supposedly will, that is probably what SHOULD happen (but won't).

Final observation tonight: I love college football and can't wait for it to start.  We are just 2 weeks away from the opening kickoff.  Wednesday or Thursday night, I'll try to put out my conference and division champs.

2014: Return of 10-Win Season for BYU?

Bronco Mendenhall said, and many BYU fans perpetuated, that the minimum expectation for BYU is 10 wins.  While Bronco claimed to be speaking holistically that EVERY year that is the expectation, I think BYU fans have that expectation heading into 2014.  My question is: is that expectation justified?

BYU returns key players at every position on offense except WR (though avid BYU fans will say Mitch Matthews is healthy and Ross Apo has experience/potential), the defense has been steady over the past decade or so, the P improved a lot over last season, the coaching staff is a year more experienced and players/coaches have another year in Anae's system, and the schedule is significantly easier than 2013 when the team won 8 regular season games.  All of those would indicate that BYU is due for a 2-3 win increase.

For a top 10 team, BYU's schedule is not at all daunting.  A realistic expectation would be 11 wins and really probably 12.  For a top 25 team, 10 wins is within reach and 11 is a distinct possibility as well.  Outside of those two ranking ranges, yes, a top 40 team could still win 10 games or possibly as few as 7, which is probably about where BYU is situated in terms of ranking.  What BYU's schedule is lacking is pace: BYU plays most of its difficult games early, and basically in a row.  Most of BYU's games in September and October will be tests, maybe not AP Chem or the New York Bar Exam, but still not as simple as Utah's untimed and open book driver's license exam.  Their November schedule should provide 4 relatively easy wins, if BYU is as good as it is most seasons.

In September, there is only 1 easy game and it comes after 3 tough games.  UConn is not a tough team, but it is a tough opening game.  It's on the road against a team with a new coach whose defenses have shut BYU down in games the 2 previous seasons.  There are higher expectations by the fan base and who knows what kind of environment the game will have.  BYU is the better team and should win the game.  Although, historically, with only one exception that I can recall (Washington State 2012), BYU's offense under Bronco Mendenhall has struggled mightily in season openers.  If the game is close late, who knows what can happen.

Then BYU travels to Texas who should be a good team.  They also have a mind for revenge.  Most teams head into Austin and come out on the wrong end of it.  Teams that embarrassed Texas the year prior can expect to get the business from Longhorn players and fans.

5 days after Texas, BYU plays a team it needed all 60 minutes to subdue in 2013.  That Houston team was starting a true freshmen with some other inexperienced players on offense.  If BYU comes into that game with a loss already, who knows what the mindset of the players will be: many of them have publicly talked about an expectation of going undefeated.  The problem with independence is if that is your expectation, what happens after you lose ONE?  In addition, Houston could be a really good team.

The next week BYU beats Virginia.  No way, no how does BYU lose that game.  Riley Nelson could suit up and play QB for the Cougars and BYU wins that game.

The next slate of games puts BYU against Utah State, at UCF, Nevada, and at Boise State.  BYU should be favored in at least 3 of those 4 games, depending on how September goes.  None of those games is particularly easy.  UCF has only lost 2 home games the past 3 seasons.  Boise State is 67-3 at home since 2000.  That spans 4 head coaches and 3 conferences.  However, any team that goes on record to say that they believe they are one of the top teams in the country and have a good chance to go undefeated should perhaps only sweat a little bit on the road, but otherwise survive unscathed.  Chuckie Keeton is amazing and over his 3 years at Utah State he has had some pretty good players supporting him, but he does not have the horses around him in 2014: this is nowhere near as good an Aggie team as they have had the previous few seasons.  I suspect BYU will hit 300 rushing yards against Nevada.

I already stated my opinions about November: should be a cake walk if BYU plays at the same level it has in the previous decade.

The schedule, at first glance, is not difficult.  There isn't a game on the schedule that I look at and say BYU absolutely has no chance.  Most seasons there is a game or maybe two like that: Wisconsin, Florida State, TCU, Utah (apparently), etc.  That doesn't exist: BYU shouldn't be overwhelmed in any game.  However, looking at the collection of games, the location of games, the timing of games, it doesn't look like such an easy walk to get to 10 wins as an absolute minimum expectation.  I can't say I EXPECT BYU to win at least 2 out of games at Texas, Houston, at UCF, and at Boise State.  I expect BYU to compete and have a chance in the 2nd half of all of those games.  However, I cannot honestly say I expect a 2-2 record there or better.  In order to get to 10 wins, BYU has to win all of those other games that they should win (not a guarantee) and go 2-2 in those 4 which means at least one road win against a team that is probably on par with them, if not perhaps slightly better.  Minimum expectation for me is not the 10 most BYU fans have, I am stuck at 9.

Unfortunately, with all of the undefeated talk that inevitably is BYU's offseason media chorus line, it's going to take 10 or 11 to keep fans Fully Invested.  Enough talk of undefeated, show the fans.  I do not believe a team has ever owed its fans an undefeated season more than BYU does in 2014 b/c they have been talking about it for 6 or 7 years now and have never even come close!  If they don't do it in 2014, it isn't happening in 2015 with games at Nebraska, UCLA, and Michigan.

Minimum expectation: 9; minimum necessary to satisfy me as a fan: 12.

State of BYU Football, Part II: Defense

I wrote a little about what BYU's offense is going to expect in my last post.  To summarize: Texas and UCF might have upper echelon defenses, besides that, BYU meets Boise State and Utah State who might have decent defenses and a bunch of teams that should struggle to keep BYU off the scoreboard.  Yeah, I know, you read that big long post only to get a 2-sentence summary here.  It happens.  Now it's time to talk about what the defense might expect this season.

BYU is going to face some potentially elite offensive players this season, but I have a hard time seeing where they will face any elite offensive unit.  Great players will make great plays in crucial situations, but great offenses make it more likely that those are game-clinching plays and not merely game-tying/winning plays.  Luckily this means BYU should have a chance in every game.  I'll go through position-by-position (except OL b/c that is always fluid).

Opposing QBs to Watch
BYU will face 7 teams they faced in 2013: Texas, Houston, Virginia, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, and Middle Tennessee.  Only 2 of those teams did BYU's defense truly shut down (Virginia and Middle Tennessee) and 6 of those teams return a QB with significant game experience (MTSU the lone exception).  Of BYU's other 4 FBS opponents, UConn, UNLV, and Cal all return QBs with experience.  In college, QB experience counts for a lot, but being a good QB with experience is entirely different thing.  Of the 10 returning QBs BYU will face this season, I know for sure that 2 of them are NFL QBs, maybe backups, but still they are good enough to make the league: Chuckie Keeton from Utah State and Cody Fajardo from Nevada.

I suspect that Jared Goff from Cal could blossom into an NFL QB if he can stay upright the next 2 or 3 seasons (and he'll have ample opportunity to throw the ball and get better under Sonny Dykes).  I think David Ash (Texas) and Grant Hedrick (Boise State) will have good senior seasons but I don't think anyone is going to call them elite level QBs at any point during this season.  So that's it, BYU will face 2 or 3 great QBs this year.  Neither of the 2 known commodities have great RBs (Kendall Brock in Reno is solid but made statistically better by the system, and I hate using that word but I think it fits with him: he had a 30-yard run against BYU last year, but his other 13 carries only netted 26 yards), WRs, or OL to take the pressure off of them either.  Goff has some very good WRs and his OL has to be better than last season (4 returning starters).

Opposing RBs to Watch
BYU will face a handful of pretty good RBs though, who can make their average QBs look better.  Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray from Texas will run behind a pretty good OL.  Brown has played BYU twice and Gray once.  In those games they combined for 30 carries and 173 yards but I think they could duplicate that effort this season while adding some TDs to the line.

Kevin Parks from Virginia is a pretty good back on a pretty bad team.  He had a pretty pedestrian day against BYU in 2013, as did the entire Virginia offense.  I suspect he'll come close to 80/90 yards rushing against BYU and, if he stays healthy, will certainly top 1,000 for the 2nd straight season, which is an impressive feat for someone on such a bad team.

Jay Ajayi from Boise State has played BYU twice now.  In 2013 against the Cougars he had 23 carries for 151 yards, in what was his 2nd best statistical performance in the course of a stellar season.  2 of these 4 are juniors, but I'd be shocked if all 4 didn't get a hard look from the NFL during the 2015 and 2016 drafts.

Opposing WRs/TEs to Watch
This is probably the position that BYU will see the most NFL-type players.  They will also see a lot of guys who may not have NFL skills, but are plenty good enough to drive BYU fans crazy.  Nearly every game, BYU's DBs will be tested:
Connecticut: Geremy Davis, a 6'3" 216 pound WR who had 1,000 yards receiving in 2013 on one of the worst offensive teams in the country.
Texas: Jaxon Shipley isn't the biggest or fastest guy out there, he's not his older brother Jordan who was a star with Colt McCoy, but he does a little bit of everything.  Over his career he has caught the ball (159 receptions, 1,933 yards, 10 TDs, with ZERO quarterback play), run the ball, thrown the ball (BYU fans should remember a certain 3rd down completion he had in Austin against the Cougars in the 4th Q of the 2011 game), returned punts, returned kickoffs, and punted.  Last year in Provo, he was a bright spot with 8 catches for 105 yards.  With the kind of season he's capable of having, he could top 3,000 total yards for his career.
Houston: Deontay Greenberry is a baller.  As a true freshman in 2012 he was 3rd on the team in yards before averaging over 100 yards/game in 2013.  He "only" had 11 catches for 68 yards against BYU but had 2 TDs, both times giving Houston leads (the 2nd one with 5 minutes left in the game).
Virginia and Utah State: Well, I said nearly every game.  Though I think Brandon Swindall from Utah State will have a breakout year.  He was clutch on a couple occasions for USU in 2013.
UCF: Blake Bortles won't be throwing the ball this year, but the Knights have 3 very good WRs.  In the 3 or 4 games I saw of them last season, a different one stepped up each time.  It's dangerous to play a team where any of 3 guys who could legitimately have a 100-yard game.
Nevada: Richy Turner is a pretty solid slot-type WR who could have a 1,000-yard season.
Boise State: Matt Miller set all kinds of records as a freshman WR in 2011 at Boise State and has gotten better each season.  He had 5 100-yard games in 2013 (with 1 a 200-yard game).  He's big.  He's got great hands.  He understands the game.  He'll be tough for BYU, especially since he has an experienced/decent QB, a great RB, a potentially decent OL, and offensive coaches that are very familiar with BYU's D (Bryan Harsin was OC at Boise State and Texas in games against BYU and Mike Sanford was UNLV's Coach during Bronco's first 5 seasons at the helm).  Shane Williams-Rhodes had 10 catches for 95 yards against BYU last year and could push for 1,000 yards too.
UNLV (sorry, no Middle Tennessee/Savannah State guy makes the cut): Devante Davis is a highlight reel kind of guy.  I don't know how good the rest of UNLV's team will be, but this guy can play.  H may be the best WR BYU plays all year.
California: Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs are smaller guys, which hurt them a little bit in Pac 12 play (along with all the sacks Cal surrendered), but they are big enough to use their speed advantage against BYU's DBs.  This is a wide open, gun-slinging system at Cal, these guys could both have big days against BYU, as could a handful of the other 6'2" or 6'3" guys that got experience last season.

What Will BYU Do?
BYU's D faces some good individual players.  Texas is probably the best offense they'll face from a talent perspective, Boise State may give BYU's D the most trouble, and Cal will probably throw for 400 yards against BYU.  Still think the absolute minimum expectation is 10 wins?  If the D can contend with Texas' RBs, Boise's experienced O, and UCFs WRs, then yes, absolutely.  If not, take it down a notch to 7or 8...

The State of BYU Football, Part I

After watching 3 lackadaisical performances by BYU last season, 2 in person (Wisconsin and Notre Dame), I felt as though we were witnessing the beginning of the end of BYU football.  Some people, especially Ute fans, believed that started long ago.  Maybe it did.  Since Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson arrived on the scene, BYU has never really competed week in and week out, regardless of their schedule.  As conferences continued to realign, no one of consequence ever called BYU's number, except to schedule an occasional 2-for-1 football series.  Independence improved BYU's standing more than being in the MWC, but, as even Bronco admitted this offseason, independence only helps if it lifts BYU to a power conference.

So the power conferences continue to try to consolidate their power.  They plucked most of the best teams from outside their conferences already.  BYU continues to be on the outside of the entire equation though.  The only way for BYU to change that is to win.  Win big.  Win a lot.  Win on big stages.  Unfortunately for BYU, beating Idaho State by 40 doesn't count, winning 8 games doesn't count as "a lot", and ESPN in and of itself is not a big enough stage.

BYU needs to demolish about half the teams on its 2014 schedule and it needs to beat most of the remaining teams.  10 wins, at a minimum, this season will keep BYU in any kind of national relevance.  Just looking at the schedule, BYU should be able to score 40+ points against Virginia, UNLV, and Savannah State.  They should top 30 points against Connecticut, Houston, Nevada, Middle Tennessee, and Cal.  Texas, Utah State, UCF, and Boise State are the only teams that should have any ability to slow BYU down.  Period.  Looking even deeper than that, Texas and UCF are the only potentially great defenses they will face.  If last season is any indication how BYU will fare in those games, then I'd expect between 13-17 points from BYU.

BYU, on paper, should put up points in bunches.  They should be able to drive the ball consistently against just about anyone.  They should be able to break big plays too with Taysom and Jamaal.  If any of the WRs ends up being halfway decent, they should get some big plays in the passing game too.  They absolutely have the experience to convert TDs in the red zone.  And they need to do it in all 12 games, not just in 8 or 9.  They need to win and win convincingly against the best teams on their schedule.  BYU lost 3 games last season where it had more yards than its opponents (Virginia, Utah, and Washington) and 2 of those teams didn't even make bowl games.  Against Washington and Virginia, BYU had 154 and 139 yards more of offense, respectively, and couldn't get a win.

If BYU wants to be a great team, they need to be able to score against good defenses on the road.  They only play 2 such games this season.  If BYU wants to win those games they have to find some way to put up at least 20 points.  Looking ahead to the 2015 schedule, BYU still has a chance to make noise in the future, but if BYU can't do it this season, it won't matter how tough those future schedules are, BYU won't stand a chance.  The time to make a splash is now.  There is no tomorrow for BYU.  The 2014 Cougars have the opportunity to resurrect the program, if they don't, they may lose their chance, and their fan base, forever.

A Quick Look Ahead to 2014 BYU Football

I happened to be sick yesterday and, as such, managed to catch a significant portion of BYU Football Media Day, 2014 edition.  What strikes me is every year seems like a repeat of the same story.  "I like our talent, I like our speed, I like our depth.  Last year we clearly weren't there, but this year we've turned the corner."  Well, coaches, you liked the team going into last year but as the season progressed, you clearly misjudged them.  Why should we have any trust in your assessment heading into this season?

I had questions about this supposed depth and talent going into last year and was proven right on multiple accounts.  The WRs were experienced but, beyond Cody Hoffman, there wasn't a guy out there that could go make a play, or get open against tight man coverage.  The OL had a lot of bodies, but only about 4 that were good, and those 4 were rarely all healthy at the same time.  Defenses exploited what turned out to be a poor OL, but in terms of depth, the 9th guy wasn't that much worse than the 5th guy, so, yeah, BYU had depth.  BYU gained a lot of yards in small chunks but had way too many three and outs, particularly in the games that mattered: Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Washington.  BYU's O over the years isn't about being flashy and putting up tons of big plays.  It's about consistently driving the ball, moving the chains, and playing mistake-free, or having a guy who could convert a third and long with regularity.  Those days ended with Max Hall, Harvey Unga, Dennis Pitta, and Austin Collie.  BYU last year racked up yards, big plays, and points against teams they should have.  They struggled to keep the ball longer than 5 plays against everyone else.

The front seven was as good as advertised.  The secondary was, well, good in run support and opportunistic in pass defense.  However, as is typical with a BYU secondary, they did not make big plays in the passing game in critical situations.  They were only able to take advantage of QB mistakes.  The D was, as has been the case since Max Hall graduated, put in a lot of bad situations and responded very well.  Again.  But eventually teams will score enough to beat you, given enough opportunities.  Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Washington didn't exactly score at will against BYU in spite of poor offensive performances, but they put up enough to emerge victorious.

So, what questions do I have heading into this season?  Heading into a BYU football season, it's easy to see where the question marks are: the positions that the coaches praise the most.  This year, that would be the WRs.  The only proven commodity from last year is gone.  There are guys that the coaches say they like, but they also loved Mitch Mathews last season.  He had a great game against Utah State (because they forgot to cover him 2 or 3 times) but didn't really leave his mark on any other game that he played in.  The WRs could be good.  But one of the things the coaches have talked about so much with the offensive players is how much more they can do now that guys have a year in the new system.  Well, most of the guys expected to play at WR don't have that year under their belt.  To me, that makes them the biggest question mark on the offensive side of the ball.

Defensively, the always-obvious question mark is at CB, but I'm not going to go there.  Robertson Daniel was pretty good last year for the most part, based on what I saw in 2012 I believe Jordan Johnson may be the best corner BYU has had in nearly 20 years, and Trent Trammel was slated to start ahead of Daniel before getting injured so there must be something there.  If 2 of those 3 can stay healthy, I have no question marks there.  I never thought I'd say this position was a question mark heading into a Bronco Mendenhall-coached season but, for me, it's the Inside LBs.  The BYU D is designed for these guys to make plays in the run game and I don't know if the guys on the roster can do it week in and week out.  Manoa Pikula might be pretty good, but I don't know, I didn't know about Uani Unga last year and he had the best tackling season BYU has ever seen.  Jherremya Leuta-Douyere didn't see much time last year, even though there was ample opportunity to see he field: to me, that says something about him.  Could one spring camp change that?  Zac Stout and Austin Heder are both back after absences from football so I don't know how high the expectations can be for them.  If the ILBs can't hack it, Bronco may be forced to either cheat the safeties up (which will really test those corners I said I wasn't concerned about, though I might be in that case!) or move one of what may turn out to be a plethora of OLBs to the inside.

So, at Connecticut, I'm watching the WRs and the ILBs.  If the WRs can't get open, especially against Connecticut, I'm concerned.  They'll see a steady diet of soft zone coverage from average DBs/LBs and if they can't turn that into positive plays then Texas, Utah State, UCF, Boise State, and Cal should be able to duplicate UConn's efforts.  Maybe I'm underestimating UConn's abilities under Bob Diaco.

If the ILBs aren't plugging up holes in the run game, the D will take a step back, regardless of how good the other 9 players are.  Bronco runs a team-oriented defense.  There can't be a weak link.  If there is one, my money would be on ILB.

I Love March

I learned something about myself this past week and a half: my internal clock just knows when March has arrived.  I had been watching an occasional college hoops game from November to February, though watching as many BYU games as are on TV or available online (which has been like 16 in a row).  But when the Calendar turned to March, all of a sudden my basketball watching has gone through the roof.  I stayed up past midnight the other night (or 1am if you count the Spring Ahead that occurred hours afterward) watching Milwaukee oust Green Bay in OT.

So, several of my loyal "followers" have asked what I think about BYU's chances of making the Big Dance as an at-large and what their chances are in the WCC Tournament.  I'm obviously not an expert bracketologist, but I pretty much read everything that the Big Two (Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi) say every year and have internalized as much as I can.  Based on that, I can say that BYU is as on the fence as they ever have been.  Typically, I feel like if the NCAA has the choice between accommodating BYU and leaving them for the NIT, they would just avoid the headache that BYU causes.  I always feel BYU gets underseeded by about 2 lines, with one lone exception when Jimmer was THE story of college basketball.

If you look at bubble teams, BYU actually stands apart in 2 ways, one good, one bad: 1) BYU has the worst collection of bad losses of any bubble team and 2) BYU played by far the most difficult non-conference schedule (though BYU went 2-5 in 7 non-conference games against RPI top 100).

BYU had 4 road conference losses that just can't happen.  4 teams that finished in the bottom half of the league, including LMU who only notched 4 total conference wins this season.  Any one of the four might be slightly excusable for a team with designs on making the NCAA Tournament, but all 4 is not excusable in any way, shape, or form.  No other serious bubble contender has 4 losses outside the top 100 RPI, though they make up for it with sheer volume of losses.

The one amazing aspect of BYU's non-conference schedule is that they played all but 1 of those 7 tough games away from home and, with 2 exceptions, had a decent chance in every one of those games to emerge victorious.  No other bubble team comes near that level of challenging themselves in the non-conference and only a handful can make up for that by playing in a conference where EVERY game is a difficult challenge.  SEC bubble teams, in particular, that were relying on a solid year for the conference were sorely disappointed as there were very few quality wins to pick up in conference play to make up for ATROCIOUS non-conference schedules: I'm looking at you Missouri and Arkansas.

So, BYU sits on both sides of the fence: one that the committee typically punishes for (multiple really bad losses) and one that usually gets a reward for (very difficult non-conference schedule filled with non-home games).  I personally think if the season ended today, BYU would very like be in one of the play-in games.  Unfortunately for BYU, the season doesn't end today and other bubble teams can pick up quality wins against tournament teams and BYU cannot.

Or BYU could just win their next two games and guarantee themselves at least a 11-seed and make the tournament with no question marks, except for seeding and opponent.  This is the first year I actually believe BYU has a chance to win the conference tournament.  I haven't liked BYU's chances any year previously for one reason or another.  BYU has everything they need to win the tournament this year: a multi-faceted offensive attack where 6 or 7 guys are capable of putting up 20+ points, multiple players committed on the defensive end of the floor, and a weaker-than-usual field of competition with down Gonzaga-Saint Mary's teams.

With that said, they have to beat a San Francisco team tonight that is playing very good basketball right now.  They have won 10 of their last 12 games, with both losses in hard-fought efforts against the two teams ahead of them in the standings.  The teams are about as even as can be, though BYU won both games this season.  It's difficult to beat any team three times in a season, but it's especially difficult when the other team is on-par with you.  If they survive tonight, they'll have to face a team that actually knows how to win conference tournaments, even if they are having sub-par seasons, with either the Zags or Saint Mary's Gaels.  Good luck, BYU.  You will need it.

BYU's 2014 Football Schedule Announced

Tom Holmoe announced BYU's 2014 Football Schedule last night.  There were no big surprises announced.  The biggest surprise was what was NOT announced: a bowl game.  In terms of expectations for 2014, I'll look one game/team at a time.

I repeat what I have said previously though, I believe BYU is another average season away from failing its independent experiment.  If BYU does not win 10 games and spend at least some time in the rankings during 2014, I believe the end is nigh for BYU's potential to become relevant nationally.  In 2015, their September schedule could put them back on the map, but if BYU isn't good enough to win 10 games in 2014, I don't see them competing at Nebraska or at Michigan in 2015...this might be it Cougar fans.  Let's hope not!

@Connecticut
On paper this is a game that BYU should not struggle with.  However, UConn has the kind of offense that BYU defenses have struggled with in the past.  They were very young last season and lost their first 9 games before gaining some momentum to close the season with 3 straight wins, including one over Rutgers who was bowl eligible.  They have a small, shifty running back and an NFL-type WR that they target often.  The QB situation is very much in flux.  With a new coaching staff, it's unclear how the O will take shape.  However, their new OC ran more of a spread option type of offense at CMU the past 4 seasons.

Bob Diaco, Notre Dame's former DC, is the new head coach and is familiar with BYU, having coached against, and stifled, BYU's offense the past 2 seasons.  He doesn't have the type of players he had at ND, but familiarity is familiarity and completely shutting down is completely shutting down: he has done that to BYU before.  Combine that with BYU's typical "start the season slow" on offense and we may have a tight game.  But, again, on paper, BYU should win.

@Texas
Two games, two new coaching staffs.  While the coaching staff may not remember what happened in Provo last year, the Longhorn players will be out for some pay back.  They lost some star power on both sides of the ball, but if they return committed to running the football, they will be tough to stop.  David Ash should enter 2014 as the unquestioned leader at QB, which is an advantage UT has not had since Colt McCoy graduated.  This will be BYU's toughest game.

Houston
This is a Thursday night game on ESPN.  Last year's game was an instant classic (for BYU fans at least).  Houston brings all the skill position players back from a team that was a handful of plays from being undefeated.  This one should be a great game.  With the game coming 5 days after playing at Texas, I suspect BYU will have some troubles here...

Virginia
BYU has a nice long rest after Houston to take on a Virginia team that basically spoiled BYU's start from the get-go.  It's not a very good team.  BYU will either have some momentum coming into this game or be trying to salvage a season already gone awry.  Virginia only loses a few people in the trenches.  But again, this was a bad team last year and BYU should NOT lose to them.

Utah State (after a bye)
I suspect that Utah State will settle back into their spot as third fiddle in the state of Utah in a few years, but they still have a chance to make a statement in 2014.  They have some positive momentum as a program for now.  It is difficult to say whether Coach Wells takes the typical path of Utah State coaches and makes the year about beating BYU or if he focuses on the MWC title, which they could have a shot at this season.  If his focus this offseason is on Tennessee and MWC, then BYU wins.  If Chuckie wants payback and the Aggies put BYU first and foremost, this becomes a bit more difficult.

@UCF
The Knights shocked the college football world (or at least the casual college football fan) by beating Baylor this past season in the Fiesta Bowl.  They have slowly been building a great football program the past few seasons.  BYU fans remember the tight game the Cougars played against them in 2011.  They play physical in the trenches, are very balanced on offense, and are extremely aggressive defensively.  It will be interesting to see how they respond in 2014 without Blake Bortles at QB and Storm Johnson at RB.  This is another tough game, though BYU fans may not see it as such.  Sometimes Cougar Nation pays too much attention to their team and brand to see some of the shifts happening in the outside world!  UCF is a good program.

Nevada
This is a game BYU has to win and not struggle in.  Nevada struggled under first year head coach Brian Polian last season.  They showed some bright spots in 2013, and they certainly had BYU on the ropes in 2013's contest, but these are the games BYU has to win, no problem, to be successful as an independent.  They will be a fairly veteran team, particularly on offense.  Their QB is mobile and experienced, but BYU has really improved the past 3 years against those types of QBs.  With the game in Provo, it shouldn't be an issue.

@Boise State
BYU has not won in Boise before.  However, with Chris Petersen moving on to Washington, and Boise seemingly on a downward trend after 7 years of complete dominance, there is potentially no better time to sneak a win up there.  Grant Hedrick could be a great QB (though had his worst start of 2013 against BYU), Jay Ajayi ran for 151 yards at BYU, and Matt Miller had 5 100-yard games in 2013.  It's not an easy task, but if not in 2014, then when will BYU get a win in Boise?  Bryan Harsin is in his second year as a head coach, first at Boise State.  That's the perfect opportunity to show what a veteran coach can do.  So Bronco, show them!

@Middle Tennessee
This is another should win for BYU.  On the road, against an average-at-best team that BYU manhandled in 2013.  This was BYU's biggest point spread in 2013 against an FBS opponent.  MTU loses its QB and one of its WRs, but they really are more of a system that isn't reliant on any one member.  I wouldn't anticipate a close game, but crazy things happen to BYU on the road sometimes.

UNLV (after a bye)
The Rebels played in (and lost) their first bowl game in over a decade in 2013.  Did they turn a proverbial corner or was it just a down year in the MWC?  Or was their schedule just that easy?  They had a senior QB and RB that really helped shoulder the load for them in 2013.  Their leading WR was back who had a great year, in spite of some inconsistent play.  I did watch him catch a couple of extremely impressive TDs in one of their games last year (don't recall which game).  Another must win (big) for BYU.

Savannah State
FCS team, enough said.

@California
This could be an intriguing matchup.  Obviously, Cal was awful in 2013.  They got blown out in everyone FBS game they played excluding one (Arizona).  Even 4-win Colorado laid the wood to the Bears.  But many coaches see significant improvement in year two as players adjust to their coaching style and the strength and conditioning programs they put in place.  Sonny Dykes saw a 3-win improvement in his 2nd year at Louisiana Tech.  I'd be shocked if he didn't see a few more wins in 2014, but mostly b/c they only had 1.  Jared Goff has the potential to be a very good QB if Dykes can figure out how to keep him healthy for the season.  He needs to work on his arm strength a bit, but he has good touch on the deep ball and made good decisions in the few games I saw of him.  Although, the guy was getting killed, so maybe he has a strong arm when he's 100%...

The Season
There is not a single game on the schedule that should be overwhelming for BYU.  BYU lost a lot on defense.  If Bronco can fill in those gaps and find some more consistent threats in the passing game, Taysom Hill is going to get his if he's healthy.  BYU should be capable of getting 11 wins, but there are plenty of games they could drop.  If they don't really start clicking on offense and find themselves involved in a lot of close games, I believe BYU will lose its fair share of them in 2014.