I wrote a little about what BYU's offense is going to expect in my last post. To summarize: Texas and UCF might have upper echelon defenses, besides that, BYU meets Boise State and Utah State who might have decent defenses and a bunch of teams that should struggle to keep BYU off the scoreboard. Yeah, I know, you read that big long post only to get a 2-sentence summary here. It happens. Now it's time to talk about what the defense might expect this season.
BYU is going to face some potentially elite offensive players this season, but I have a hard time seeing where they will face any elite offensive unit. Great players will make great plays in crucial situations, but great offenses make it more likely that those are game-clinching plays and not merely game-tying/winning plays. Luckily this means BYU should have a chance in every game. I'll go through position-by-position (except OL b/c that is always fluid).
Opposing QBs to Watch
BYU will face 7 teams they faced in 2013: Texas, Houston, Virginia, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, and Middle Tennessee. Only 2 of those teams did BYU's defense truly shut down (Virginia and Middle Tennessee) and 6 of those teams return a QB with significant game experience (MTSU the lone exception). Of BYU's other 4 FBS opponents, UConn, UNLV, and Cal all return QBs with experience. In college, QB experience counts for a lot, but being a good QB with experience is entirely different thing. Of the 10 returning QBs BYU will face this season, I know for sure that 2 of them are NFL QBs, maybe backups, but still they are good enough to make the league: Chuckie Keeton from Utah State and Cody Fajardo from Nevada.
I suspect that Jared Goff from Cal could blossom into an NFL QB if he can stay upright the next 2 or 3 seasons (and he'll have ample opportunity to throw the ball and get better under Sonny Dykes). I think David Ash (Texas) and Grant Hedrick (Boise State) will have good senior seasons but I don't think anyone is going to call them elite level QBs at any point during this season. So that's it, BYU will face 2 or 3 great QBs this year. Neither of the 2 known commodities have great RBs (Kendall Brock in Reno is solid but made statistically better by the system, and I hate using that word but I think it fits with him: he had a 30-yard run against BYU last year, but his other 13 carries only netted 26 yards), WRs, or OL to take the pressure off of them either. Goff has some very good WRs and his OL has to be better than last season (4 returning starters).
Opposing RBs to Watch
BYU will face a handful of pretty good RBs though, who can make their average QBs look better. Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray from Texas will run behind a pretty good OL. Brown has played BYU twice and Gray once. In those games they combined for 30 carries and 173 yards but I think they could duplicate that effort this season while adding some TDs to the line.
Kevin Parks from Virginia is a pretty good back on a pretty bad team. He had a pretty pedestrian day against BYU in 2013, as did the entire Virginia offense. I suspect he'll come close to 80/90 yards rushing against BYU and, if he stays healthy, will certainly top 1,000 for the 2nd straight season, which is an impressive feat for someone on such a bad team.
Jay Ajayi from Boise State has played BYU twice now. In 2013 against the Cougars he had 23 carries for 151 yards, in what was his 2nd best statistical performance in the course of a stellar season. 2 of these 4 are juniors, but I'd be shocked if all 4 didn't get a hard look from the NFL during the 2015 and 2016 drafts.
Opposing WRs/TEs to Watch
This is probably the position that BYU will see the most NFL-type players. They will also see a lot of guys who may not have NFL skills, but are plenty good enough to drive BYU fans crazy. Nearly every game, BYU's DBs will be tested:
Connecticut: Geremy Davis, a 6'3" 216 pound WR who had 1,000 yards receiving in 2013 on one of the worst offensive teams in the country.
Texas: Jaxon Shipley isn't the biggest or fastest guy out there, he's not his older brother Jordan who was a star with Colt McCoy, but he does a little bit of everything. Over his career he has caught the ball (159 receptions, 1,933 yards, 10 TDs, with ZERO quarterback play), run the ball, thrown the ball (BYU fans should remember a certain 3rd down completion he had in Austin against the Cougars in the 4th Q of the 2011 game), returned punts, returned kickoffs, and punted. Last year in Provo, he was a bright spot with 8 catches for 105 yards. With the kind of season he's capable of having, he could top 3,000 total yards for his career.
Houston: Deontay Greenberry is a baller. As a true freshman in 2012 he was 3rd on the team in yards before averaging over 100 yards/game in 2013. He "only" had 11 catches for 68 yards against BYU but had 2 TDs, both times giving Houston leads (the 2nd one with 5 minutes left in the game).
Virginia and Utah State: Well, I said nearly every game. Though I think Brandon Swindall from Utah State will have a breakout year. He was clutch on a couple occasions for USU in 2013.
UCF: Blake Bortles won't be throwing the ball this year, but the Knights have 3 very good WRs. In the 3 or 4 games I saw of them last season, a different one stepped up each time. It's dangerous to play a team where any of 3 guys who could legitimately have a 100-yard game.
Nevada: Richy Turner is a pretty solid slot-type WR who could have a 1,000-yard season.
Boise State: Matt Miller set all kinds of records as a freshman WR in 2011 at Boise State and has gotten better each season. He had 5 100-yard games in 2013 (with 1 a 200-yard game). He's big. He's got great hands. He understands the game. He'll be tough for BYU, especially since he has an experienced/decent QB, a great RB, a potentially decent OL, and offensive coaches that are very familiar with BYU's D (Bryan Harsin was OC at Boise State and Texas in games against BYU and Mike Sanford was UNLV's Coach during Bronco's first 5 seasons at the helm). Shane Williams-Rhodes had 10 catches for 95 yards against BYU last year and could push for 1,000 yards too.
UNLV (sorry, no Middle Tennessee/Savannah State guy makes the cut): Devante Davis is a highlight reel kind of guy. I don't know how good the rest of UNLV's team will be, but this guy can play. H may be the best WR BYU plays all year.
California: Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs are smaller guys, which hurt them a little bit in Pac 12 play (along with all the sacks Cal surrendered), but they are big enough to use their speed advantage against BYU's DBs. This is a wide open, gun-slinging system at Cal, these guys could both have big days against BYU, as could a handful of the other 6'2" or 6'3" guys that got experience last season.
What Will BYU Do?
BYU's D faces some good individual players. Texas is probably the best offense they'll face from a talent perspective, Boise State may give BYU's D the most trouble, and Cal will probably throw for 400 yards against BYU. Still think the absolute minimum expectation is 10 wins? If the D can contend with Texas' RBs, Boise's experienced O, and UCFs WRs, then yes, absolutely. If not, take it down a notch to 7or 8...
No comments:
Post a Comment