Bronco Mendenhall said, and many BYU fans perpetuated, that the minimum expectation for BYU is 10 wins. While Bronco claimed to be speaking holistically that EVERY year that is the expectation, I think BYU fans have that expectation heading into 2014. My question is: is that expectation justified?
BYU returns key players at every position on offense except WR (though avid BYU fans will say Mitch Matthews is healthy and Ross Apo has experience/potential), the defense has been steady over the past decade or so, the P improved a lot over last season, the coaching staff is a year more experienced and players/coaches have another year in Anae's system, and the schedule is significantly easier than 2013 when the team won 8 regular season games. All of those would indicate that BYU is due for a 2-3 win increase.
For a top 10 team, BYU's schedule is not at all daunting. A realistic expectation would be 11 wins and really probably 12. For a top 25 team, 10 wins is within reach and 11 is a distinct possibility as well. Outside of those two ranking ranges, yes, a top 40 team could still win 10 games or possibly as few as 7, which is probably about where BYU is situated in terms of ranking. What BYU's schedule is lacking is pace: BYU plays most of its difficult games early, and basically in a row. Most of BYU's games in September and October will be tests, maybe not AP Chem or the New York Bar Exam, but still not as simple as Utah's untimed and open book driver's license exam. Their November schedule should provide 4 relatively easy wins, if BYU is as good as it is most seasons.
In September, there is only 1 easy game and it comes after 3 tough games. UConn is not a tough team, but it is a tough opening game. It's on the road against a team with a new coach whose defenses have shut BYU down in games the 2 previous seasons. There are higher expectations by the fan base and who knows what kind of environment the game will have. BYU is the better team and should win the game. Although, historically, with only one exception that I can recall (Washington State 2012), BYU's offense under Bronco Mendenhall has struggled mightily in season openers. If the game is close late, who knows what can happen.
Then BYU travels to Texas who should be a good team. They also have a mind for revenge. Most teams head into Austin and come out on the wrong end of it. Teams that embarrassed Texas the year prior can expect to get the business from Longhorn players and fans.
5 days after Texas, BYU plays a team it needed all 60 minutes to subdue in 2013. That Houston team was starting a true freshmen with some other inexperienced players on offense. If BYU comes into that game with a loss already, who knows what the mindset of the players will be: many of them have publicly talked about an expectation of going undefeated. The problem with independence is if that is your expectation, what happens after you lose ONE? In addition, Houston could be a really good team.
The next week BYU beats Virginia. No way, no how does BYU lose that game. Riley Nelson could suit up and play QB for the Cougars and BYU wins that game.
The next slate of games puts BYU against Utah State, at UCF, Nevada, and at Boise State. BYU should be favored in at least 3 of those 4 games, depending on how September goes. None of those games is particularly easy. UCF has only lost 2 home games the past 3 seasons. Boise State is 67-3 at home since 2000. That spans 4 head coaches and 3 conferences. However, any team that goes on record to say that they believe they are one of the top teams in the country and have a good chance to go undefeated should perhaps only sweat a little bit on the road, but otherwise survive unscathed. Chuckie Keeton is amazing and over his 3 years at Utah State he has had some pretty good players supporting him, but he does not have the horses around him in 2014: this is nowhere near as good an Aggie team as they have had the previous few seasons. I suspect BYU will hit 300 rushing yards against Nevada.
I already stated my opinions about November: should be a cake walk if BYU plays at the same level it has in the previous decade.
The schedule, at first glance, is not difficult. There isn't a game on the schedule that I look at and say BYU absolutely has no chance. Most seasons there is a game or maybe two like that: Wisconsin, Florida State, TCU, Utah (apparently), etc. That doesn't exist: BYU shouldn't be overwhelmed in any game. However, looking at the collection of games, the location of games, the timing of games, it doesn't look like such an easy walk to get to 10 wins as an absolute minimum expectation. I can't say I EXPECT BYU to win at least 2 out of games at Texas, Houston, at UCF, and at Boise State. I expect BYU to compete and have a chance in the 2nd half of all of those games. However, I cannot honestly say I expect a 2-2 record there or better. In order to get to 10 wins, BYU has to win all of those other games that they should win (not a guarantee) and go 2-2 in those 4 which means at least one road win against a team that is probably on par with them, if not perhaps slightly better. Minimum expectation for me is not the 10 most BYU fans have, I am stuck at 9.
Unfortunately, with all of the undefeated talk that inevitably is BYU's offseason media chorus line, it's going to take 10 or 11 to keep fans Fully Invested. Enough talk of undefeated, show the fans. I do not believe a team has ever owed its fans an undefeated season more than BYU does in 2014 b/c they have been talking about it for 6 or 7 years now and have never even come close! If they don't do it in 2014, it isn't happening in 2015 with games at Nebraska, UCLA, and Michigan.
Minimum expectation: 9; minimum necessary to satisfy me as a fan: 12.
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