New Mexico vs. Wyoming/Air Force winner: this game shouldn't be close, but you never know with New Mexico. Their biggest "weakness" is that they play to the level of their competition. New Mexico trailed in the second half to EVERY team in the conference, several of them at home, excluding Wyoming (whom they beat by 2 on the road, but never trailed). But they also won at BYU and at UNLV, something NOBODY else has done since Coach Rose and Coach Kruger joined the MWC. Either way, I don't see New Mexico falling to either of these teams. It is probably closer than it should be, like a lot of New Mexico's conference games have been, but New Mexico probably pulls out a 10-12 point win over Air Force or a 15-20 point win over Wyoming. I think they will play Wyoming, because every time I pick Air Force to win, they lose...
SDSU vs. CSU: the Rams have lived by the 3 and died by the 3 this year. That is a bad way to be in a tournament setting: 3-point shooting cannot carry you through a 3-game, winner-takes-all, tournament: particularly when you aren't very good in other facets of the game (i.e. offensive rebounding). SDSU is playing well. They want it. They need it. And they take it. I'll put the spread around 8, with SDSU getting into the low-to-mid 70's, 72-64.
BYU vs. TCU: well, if TCU can shoot 83% for an entire game, they can beat BYU (that was their shooting % through 5 minutes and a 14-point lead over BYU on Saturday). The problem is: you can't shoot that well all game. You can somewhat throw the result on from Saturday's contest when projecting ahead to this tournament game. BYU won't win by 30. This could be a 15-18 point win however. BYU probably steps off the gas pedal the last 5 minutes, but I anticipate a game in the low 80's for BYU, 83-67.
UNLV vs. Utah: with a season sweep, Utah is probably somewhat confident going into this game. This game could go one of two ways (both are good for BYU): 1) UNLV comes out with vengeance on their mind for allowing Utah knock them off of the NCAA Tourney "locks" list and onto the bubble with two losses. They shoot 60% from the field and drop 80+ on Utah. 2) Utah does present a lot of matchup problems for UNLV and it's a struggle, playing late into the night and scrapping to a close win. UNLV is not a great shooting team, so if they have a lights out game on Thursday, the odds of them turning around and doing the same thing on Friday isn't very likely. Or if the game is a nail-biter, drag-it-out, punishing, physical type of game, they will have to turn around and play BYU roughly 22 hours later, who will be better rested and more focused. I don't think Utah can win this game, particularly if Foster and Tillie don't play (last I heard, Foster was "done" for the year, no word on Tillie). Even if they do play, beating UNLV in Vegas AGAIN probably isn't in the cards for the slumping Utes. Then again, it is Utah. I say: Rebels by 20, 83-63.
That sets up New Mexico vs. SDSU and BYU vs. UNLV. Fans want to see New Mexico vs. BYU in the championship game I am not really confident it will play out that way. SDSU beat New Mexico at home without Billy White and lost to them in overtime by 2 at the Pit. Neutral site: I think SDSU can take it. Not to mention that SDSU (who is currently projected to make the tournament) will not make it WITHOUT this win over New Mexico. All of the "bracketologists" seem to agree on that point: if the season ended today, SDSU would be in, but the season doesn't end today and a loss to New Mexico would likely push them into the first four out (again). In a game destined for mid-60's to low-70's, SDSU wins by 5, 72-67. However, in games against Air Force and Utah, New Mexico benefited from some blatantly bad officiating down the stretch, if they get a little more of that, they'll be tough to beat! Of course, what goes around, comes around, maybe New Mexico gets the rough end of the deal this time around...
For BYU, if you are ever to beat UNLV at the Thomas & Mack, this is the time. UNLV has never lost in the Finals, but they have been susceptible to the early knockout, before their fans show up in droves. I have described how I think they beat Utah: shooting amazingly well and dropping over 80 points. They haven't shot over 50% two games in a row but a couple of times this season, and it wasn't against back-to-back defenses like Utah and BYU. If BYU plays as a team, and Jimmer scores 20+ points, they win this one something like 82-74. (If they go into scramble mode as they often do in big/tournament games, UNLV wins 86-75.)
This sets up BYU vs. SDSU in the Championship. BYU is a better team. They are a deeper team. They would probably have a lot of success doing exactly what they did in the Marriott Center: run, run, and run some more. SDSU just doesn't have enough players in their rotation to win 3 games in 3 days (7, maybe 8). I think the winner of the BYU vs. UNLV game will win the tournament, regardless of whom they play, but I don't believe that SDSU is capable of beating either of those teams in this setting. New Mexico is capable of beating either, but UNLV in a Final is a gimme for the home team. And with BYU-New Mexico, given how nearly exactly even the two teams are (both games decided by 4 points or less), I don't see any way that New Mexico can get a 3-game sweep against them. The toughest thing to do in college basketball is beat a team 3 times in a season, particularly when you aren't that much better than the opponent, if at all. But I digress. Back to where we started: BYU beats SDSU 79-63 to claim the MWC Tournament Championship and automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico gets a 3/4-seed in the West/South Regional. BYU gets a 4-seed in the West/East Regional. UNLV gets a 9/10-seed in the Midwest/East. SDSU gets a 12-seed in the Midwest/South. Of course, if the tourney plays out differently than I stated, those seedings are probably way off...I'll update as we go along, just like all of the Bracketologists do!
Monday, March 8, 2010
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Just a Few Items Left To Be Decided
Already decided:
#1 New Mexico
#2 BYU
#7 TCU
#8 Wyoming
#9 Air Force
So New Mexico plays the winner of the play-in game between Wyoming and Air Force. BYU plays TCU, a replay of the game to be played this weekend.
3-6 will be decided this weekend. UNLV should wrap up the 3 seed. All they have to do is beat Wyoming at home. That puts SDSU in 4th, whether they win at Air Force or not. The winner of Utah at CSU gets 5.
UNLV wraps it up with a 20-point shellacking of Wyoming. This win, though it doesn't really mean anything to the committee, will probably be the one that secures them a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. Rebels over Cowboys, 81-61. 3-seed, Rebels.
SDSU cruises through the Air Force game. Air Force has struggled to score 50 points of late. SDSU has been playing better offensively the past 2 or 3 weeks, but they are always a defensive-minded team first. Aztecs stay on the right side of the bubble with a big win on the road, 68-48. 4-seed, Aztecs.
Utah and CSU both need a win. Judging by the Utes poor performance last night and the loss of their "10-foot wall" in the middle (Foster sprained his ankle in the second half against BYU), they should limp in and out of Fort Collins. But wouldn't it be just like Boylen's Utes to surprise us all and pull out a victory against all odds? Sorry, the Runnin' Utes look more like the Walk-It-Up-And-Run-Clock-So-We-Can-End-This-Miserable-Game-Already Utes. Of course, CSU is in the middle of a 5-game winning streak, so this might be the time. I think CSU wins on Senior Night, 64-56. 5-seed, Rams. 6-seed, Utes.
BYU over TCU in front of 500 TCU fans, and 1,500 Cougar fans, 81-60. BYU is playing good team offense the past few games, and if some shots start falling for Haws and Tavernari, they'll get back into the 80's just in time for the MWC and NCAA Tournaments. Their defense has been pretty solid most of the year, particularly against the bottom of the league. They don't need Jimmer this game, but he'll probably put in a good 25 minutes and drop 25 points. He'll remind people why he was the frontrunner for MWC Player of the Year, even at 80%. I still don't think he gets the award, but, hey, he is by far the best point guard in the league.
That would put the MWC Tournament
New Mexico vs. Wyoming/Air Force
SDSU vs. CSU
BYU vs. TCU
UNLV vs. Utah
Every single matchup in the first round was a season sweep. Only in UNLV-Utah was the lower seed the one that swept. The first round is on the Mtn Network on Thursday afternoon and evening. The second round is on CBS-College Sports on Friday evening. The championship game is on Versus on Saturday at 4pm Pacific Time.
What do you all think: CSU or Utah as the 5-seed?
#1 New Mexico
#2 BYU
#7 TCU
#8 Wyoming
#9 Air Force
So New Mexico plays the winner of the play-in game between Wyoming and Air Force. BYU plays TCU, a replay of the game to be played this weekend.
3-6 will be decided this weekend. UNLV should wrap up the 3 seed. All they have to do is beat Wyoming at home. That puts SDSU in 4th, whether they win at Air Force or not. The winner of Utah at CSU gets 5.
UNLV wraps it up with a 20-point shellacking of Wyoming. This win, though it doesn't really mean anything to the committee, will probably be the one that secures them a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. Rebels over Cowboys, 81-61. 3-seed, Rebels.
SDSU cruises through the Air Force game. Air Force has struggled to score 50 points of late. SDSU has been playing better offensively the past 2 or 3 weeks, but they are always a defensive-minded team first. Aztecs stay on the right side of the bubble with a big win on the road, 68-48. 4-seed, Aztecs.
Utah and CSU both need a win. Judging by the Utes poor performance last night and the loss of their "10-foot wall" in the middle (Foster sprained his ankle in the second half against BYU), they should limp in and out of Fort Collins. But wouldn't it be just like Boylen's Utes to surprise us all and pull out a victory against all odds? Sorry, the Runnin' Utes look more like the Walk-It-Up-And-Run-Clock-So-We-Can-End-This-Miserable-Game-Already Utes. Of course, CSU is in the middle of a 5-game winning streak, so this might be the time. I think CSU wins on Senior Night, 64-56. 5-seed, Rams. 6-seed, Utes.
BYU over TCU in front of 500 TCU fans, and 1,500 Cougar fans, 81-60. BYU is playing good team offense the past few games, and if some shots start falling for Haws and Tavernari, they'll get back into the 80's just in time for the MWC and NCAA Tournaments. Their defense has been pretty solid most of the year, particularly against the bottom of the league. They don't need Jimmer this game, but he'll probably put in a good 25 minutes and drop 25 points. He'll remind people why he was the frontrunner for MWC Player of the Year, even at 80%. I still don't think he gets the award, but, hey, he is by far the best point guard in the league.
That would put the MWC Tournament
New Mexico vs. Wyoming/Air Force
SDSU vs. CSU
BYU vs. TCU
UNLV vs. Utah
Every single matchup in the first round was a season sweep. Only in UNLV-Utah was the lower seed the one that swept. The first round is on the Mtn Network on Thursday afternoon and evening. The second round is on CBS-College Sports on Friday evening. The championship game is on Versus on Saturday at 4pm Pacific Time.
What do you all think: CSU or Utah as the 5-seed?
I'll Stop Now
I have been overestimating Utah most of the season, except against UNLV where I have underestimated them twice. 20-point loss to your rival? At home? Only scoring 51 points? Only 34 points midway through the second half? The biggest loss to BYU in the Huntsman Center ever? And this coming off a conference championship, MWC tournament championship, and NCAA tournament bid? I know they lost 4 key contributors from that team, but at what point does Boylen man up and take some of the blame for this? Last year and the year before, he made sure people knew the program's success was all about him. This year, all of a sudden, it's the players' faults. He is putting them in position to succeed and they just aren't executing. OK, well, at 14-15, either your players are just horrible or you aren't helping them enough to succeed.
You have talent. You beat UNLV. Twice! You took New Mexico to OT. You took down Illinois. Please: don't be an idiot. You are destroying a very good basketball program. Try something different, Mr. Izzo Jr. How about having your best scorer in the game from the tip, so you don't have to chase double-digit deficits that happen the first five minutes of the game...geez, how long will Ute fans have to endure this clown at the helm?
Don't even get me started on Mr. Izzo Jr.'s in-game antics. He looks like a 4-year old that is super-hyped up on pixie sticks who just had his favorite Buzz Lightyear toy unjustly taken away. And that's just the first half when his team is down by 10. Just wait until they get down by 20. And now, nobody wants to be the idiotic media guy in the post-game news conference asking him about the team's (continued) poor performance. The Utes are still paying for the Ray Giacolleti mis-hire (and will pay him through next year if I'm not mistaken). I'm not sure they can afford to pay for the Boylen mis-hire. They can't afford to pay Giac, Boylen, and a coach who is actually worth hiring, especially with their atrocious attendance numbers this year. So you will have to endure at least one more year of this, Ute fans. I feel for you.
You have talent. You beat UNLV. Twice! You took New Mexico to OT. You took down Illinois. Please: don't be an idiot. You are destroying a very good basketball program. Try something different, Mr. Izzo Jr. How about having your best scorer in the game from the tip, so you don't have to chase double-digit deficits that happen the first five minutes of the game...geez, how long will Ute fans have to endure this clown at the helm?
Don't even get me started on Mr. Izzo Jr.'s in-game antics. He looks like a 4-year old that is super-hyped up on pixie sticks who just had his favorite Buzz Lightyear toy unjustly taken away. And that's just the first half when his team is down by 10. Just wait until they get down by 20. And now, nobody wants to be the idiotic media guy in the post-game news conference asking him about the team's (continued) poor performance. The Utes are still paying for the Ray Giacolleti mis-hire (and will pay him through next year if I'm not mistaken). I'm not sure they can afford to pay for the Boylen mis-hire. They can't afford to pay Giac, Boylen, and a coach who is actually worth hiring, especially with their atrocious attendance numbers this year. So you will have to endure at least one more year of this, Ute fans. I feel for you.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Last week: battle for seeding
Air Force and Wyoming duke it out for who gets the 8 seed in the MWC tourney, and who gets the 9. The winner gets 8, the loser gets 9. Wyoming has lost by single digits only once in the last 8 games: the rest were all double-digit losses. Air Force has lost by single digits twice in the last 7. Bottom line: both teams stink and have showed it, particularly recently. Air Force pulls out the elusive road W, 62-57.
I would anticipate some flatness from New Mexico, hosting TCU after an emotional win at the Marriott Center. They should be able to overcome that against a TCU team that never really gelled. New Mexico over TCU, 70-58.
CSU probably needs to win at SDSU in order to secure a bid to the NIT. SDSU needs to beat CSU to stay in the running for an NCAA bid. SDSU is clearly a better team. And they are at home. And they have had the weekend off to rest and prepare for the game after a somewhat poor showing at BYU last week. And CSU is riding a 4-game losing streak. SDSU stays on pace with a win over the Rams, 69-58.
BYU-Utah, normally a big deal. This year: not so much. Utah has been meddling around .500 all season, dropping below, then rising back to it. Right now they stand at exactly .500 and in need of a win to secure 5th place in the conference. Only 1 other time this season have they put together 3 wins in a row. They are sitting at 2 in a row right now. Again, I don't like Boylen's approach and I don't think he'll have them prepared to beat BYU. His biggest problem is that his coaching philosophy doesn't have a big impact on BYU's style. He wants to grind it out in the halfcourt and utilize his size and his D. But you have to score at least 70 to beat BYU. This Utah team is built to run, excluding Foster, but Boylen doesn't allow them to do that: he is holding them back. The question is: how will BYU respond after the disappointing loss to New Mexico last week? Regardless of whether Jimmer plays, BYU takes it in a closely contested game, 73-68.
I would anticipate some flatness from New Mexico, hosting TCU after an emotional win at the Marriott Center. They should be able to overcome that against a TCU team that never really gelled. New Mexico over TCU, 70-58.
CSU probably needs to win at SDSU in order to secure a bid to the NIT. SDSU needs to beat CSU to stay in the running for an NCAA bid. SDSU is clearly a better team. And they are at home. And they have had the weekend off to rest and prepare for the game after a somewhat poor showing at BYU last week. And CSU is riding a 4-game losing streak. SDSU stays on pace with a win over the Rams, 69-58.
BYU-Utah, normally a big deal. This year: not so much. Utah has been meddling around .500 all season, dropping below, then rising back to it. Right now they stand at exactly .500 and in need of a win to secure 5th place in the conference. Only 1 other time this season have they put together 3 wins in a row. They are sitting at 2 in a row right now. Again, I don't like Boylen's approach and I don't think he'll have them prepared to beat BYU. His biggest problem is that his coaching philosophy doesn't have a big impact on BYU's style. He wants to grind it out in the halfcourt and utilize his size and his D. But you have to score at least 70 to beat BYU. This Utah team is built to run, excluding Foster, but Boylen doesn't allow them to do that: he is holding them back. The question is: how will BYU respond after the disappointing loss to New Mexico last week? Regardless of whether Jimmer plays, BYU takes it in a closely contested game, 73-68.
Monday, March 1, 2010
The Aftermath
So New Mexico has guaranteed a conference title, a number 1 seed in the MWC tournament, probably player of the year, certainly coach of the year, and that their history of classless behavior by their basketball program will continue. This time, the behavior was displayed by their coach, Steve Alford. For those who followed him at Iowa (that would probably only be me...), this comes as no surprise. He was always a punk. However, that is what makes him such a perfect fit at New Mexico. It was also what made me worried when I heard he was coming to New Mexico: just what THAT program needs, replace a classy guy who can't win with a classless guy who may or may not be able to win...
For those of you who missed what happened (and if you watched the game you probably did since they NEVER talked about it), here is a summary, based on what Sportscenter discussed, what Alford said happened, what Jim Rayburn (BYU Sportsbeat writer) and Greg Wrubell said happened, and what Youtube videos show:
With about 50 seconds left, Darington Hobson threw an intentional elbow into Jonathan Tavernari's chest. JT wanted the official to make a call and went nuts when he didn't. Hobson came over for a handshake following the timeout and JT wanted nothing to do with it. Then, going through the handshake line after the game, Alford walked alongside Tavernari, talking to him. In the words of Alford, he wanted to congratulate him on a great career. At some point the conversation turned heated, both parties clearly at fault. At the end of the conversation Alford could be heard saying: "I'll see you in Vegas too, punkass." Followed shortly by (Alford still): "you're an asshole." At which point Coach Dave Rose pulled Tavernari from the line and sent him to the locker room. At the request (and escort) of the Athletic Director, JT went to the Lobo locker room to apologize to Alford for his inappropriate behavior. I agree, what JT did was inappropriate, both during and after the game. However, what Alford did was inexcusable. You are a major D-I coach. This is a college kid, playing basketball, 22 years old. He doesn't know better. You should. Of course, Alford played for, and was mentored by, Bob Knight, so let's just be glad he didn't try to choke JT or throw a chair at him...
I would be surprised if anything more than a reprimand was issued by the league. Alford, in the MWC at least, is a first-time offender. But the MWC is going to have to figure out how to handle New Mexico in the future. They have a lot of characters on the team, but not a lot of character. History is on my side as well. It has been a program of thugs, supported by the most raucous and unsportsmanlike fans in the West. Throw in Alford now and it's amazing there haven't been more issues with the officials and the league. Roman Martinez is, by far, the class of the program. The guy is a baller. He works hard, he plays the game the right way, and he treats his opponents with class and respect. Every time an opponent gets on a run, he hits a three. He is also the ONLY player on the team that is not an Alford recruit.: they are definitely going to have issues with taunting and dirty play next year, with an entire roster full of Alford's guys. I have seen Darington Hobson on several occasions get warned for his "passionate" celebrations. Dairese Gary has been clean so far this year, but has had multiple run-ins with players and officials the first two years he played under Alford.
It will be interesting to see where New Mexico goes from here. I believe in Karma, and Alford might not have very much of it going into the tournaments. Barring a screw job by the Selection Committee, they should be able to advance to the Sweet 16. New Mexico will certainly get a 3-seed in the NCAAs, most likely in the South Regional, which finishes up in Houston. I would guess their first pod will be in Oklahoma City. If they win the MWC Tournament, they might be able to move up to the 2-line. The only way they play down to a 4-seed is if they lose to TCU to close the season and get bounced in round 1 at the conference tournament. Neither is likely and both happening is beyond unlikely. BYU is currently a solid 4-seed, but they can play their way down to the 5-line if they lose again in the regular season (at Utah and at TCU) or lose in the second round of the MWC Tournament (which looks like it will be against UNLV). If they win at Utah and at TCU, and advance to the MWC finals, they are a lock for a 4-seed. I think even winning the conference championship would leave them at a 4 seed.
As it stands right now:
New Mexico is guaranteed the #1 seed. 3-seed in the NCAAs.
BYU needs 1 win to clinch #2 or a UNLV loss. 4-seed in the NCAAs.
UNLV and SDSU are fighting for 3/4. UNLV holds the tie-breaker currently. I suspect they will tie in the standings, and UNLV will get the 3 seed in the tournament. They will get BYU in round 2, which is a better place for BYU to play them. UNLV is UNBEATABLE in the Final. You must knock them out early. With each game, they get a larger fan base. Either UNLV or SDSU will make the tourney between 10-12 in the seeding. I doubt both will make it unless they play each other in the MWC Championship game. The other gets a 1 or 2-seed in the NIT.
CSU-Utah are fighting for the 5/6. Utah is a game-up, but they play the final game of the year in Fort Collins. Utah can clinch the 5th seed with a win in either of their final two games and a CSU loss at SDSU. Neither will make the NCAAs. Both are possibilities for the NIT (assuming Utah is above .500). They will definitely both play in the postseason, even if it is the CIT (former CBI).
TCU is solidly in 7th and is very unlikely to move up with its final games against New Mexico and BYU. No postseason beyond the MWC tourney.
Wyoming and Air Force have clinched the 8/9 play-in game. No postseason beyond the MWC tourney.
For those of you who missed what happened (and if you watched the game you probably did since they NEVER talked about it), here is a summary, based on what Sportscenter discussed, what Alford said happened, what Jim Rayburn (BYU Sportsbeat writer) and Greg Wrubell said happened, and what Youtube videos show:
With about 50 seconds left, Darington Hobson threw an intentional elbow into Jonathan Tavernari's chest. JT wanted the official to make a call and went nuts when he didn't. Hobson came over for a handshake following the timeout and JT wanted nothing to do with it. Then, going through the handshake line after the game, Alford walked alongside Tavernari, talking to him. In the words of Alford, he wanted to congratulate him on a great career. At some point the conversation turned heated, both parties clearly at fault. At the end of the conversation Alford could be heard saying: "I'll see you in Vegas too, punkass." Followed shortly by (Alford still): "you're an asshole." At which point Coach Dave Rose pulled Tavernari from the line and sent him to the locker room. At the request (and escort) of the Athletic Director, JT went to the Lobo locker room to apologize to Alford for his inappropriate behavior. I agree, what JT did was inappropriate, both during and after the game. However, what Alford did was inexcusable. You are a major D-I coach. This is a college kid, playing basketball, 22 years old. He doesn't know better. You should. Of course, Alford played for, and was mentored by, Bob Knight, so let's just be glad he didn't try to choke JT or throw a chair at him...
I would be surprised if anything more than a reprimand was issued by the league. Alford, in the MWC at least, is a first-time offender. But the MWC is going to have to figure out how to handle New Mexico in the future. They have a lot of characters on the team, but not a lot of character. History is on my side as well. It has been a program of thugs, supported by the most raucous and unsportsmanlike fans in the West. Throw in Alford now and it's amazing there haven't been more issues with the officials and the league. Roman Martinez is, by far, the class of the program. The guy is a baller. He works hard, he plays the game the right way, and he treats his opponents with class and respect. Every time an opponent gets on a run, he hits a three. He is also the ONLY player on the team that is not an Alford recruit.: they are definitely going to have issues with taunting and dirty play next year, with an entire roster full of Alford's guys. I have seen Darington Hobson on several occasions get warned for his "passionate" celebrations. Dairese Gary has been clean so far this year, but has had multiple run-ins with players and officials the first two years he played under Alford.
It will be interesting to see where New Mexico goes from here. I believe in Karma, and Alford might not have very much of it going into the tournaments. Barring a screw job by the Selection Committee, they should be able to advance to the Sweet 16. New Mexico will certainly get a 3-seed in the NCAAs, most likely in the South Regional, which finishes up in Houston. I would guess their first pod will be in Oklahoma City. If they win the MWC Tournament, they might be able to move up to the 2-line. The only way they play down to a 4-seed is if they lose to TCU to close the season and get bounced in round 1 at the conference tournament. Neither is likely and both happening is beyond unlikely. BYU is currently a solid 4-seed, but they can play their way down to the 5-line if they lose again in the regular season (at Utah and at TCU) or lose in the second round of the MWC Tournament (which looks like it will be against UNLV). If they win at Utah and at TCU, and advance to the MWC finals, they are a lock for a 4-seed. I think even winning the conference championship would leave them at a 4 seed.
As it stands right now:
New Mexico is guaranteed the #1 seed. 3-seed in the NCAAs.
BYU needs 1 win to clinch #2 or a UNLV loss. 4-seed in the NCAAs.
UNLV and SDSU are fighting for 3/4. UNLV holds the tie-breaker currently. I suspect they will tie in the standings, and UNLV will get the 3 seed in the tournament. They will get BYU in round 2, which is a better place for BYU to play them. UNLV is UNBEATABLE in the Final. You must knock them out early. With each game, they get a larger fan base. Either UNLV or SDSU will make the tourney between 10-12 in the seeding. I doubt both will make it unless they play each other in the MWC Championship game. The other gets a 1 or 2-seed in the NIT.
CSU-Utah are fighting for the 5/6. Utah is a game-up, but they play the final game of the year in Fort Collins. Utah can clinch the 5th seed with a win in either of their final two games and a CSU loss at SDSU. Neither will make the NCAAs. Both are possibilities for the NIT (assuming Utah is above .500). They will definitely both play in the postseason, even if it is the CIT (former CBI).
TCU is solidly in 7th and is very unlikely to move up with its final games against New Mexico and BYU. No postseason beyond the MWC tourney.
Wyoming and Air Force have clinched the 8/9 play-in game. No postseason beyond the MWC tourney.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Hats off to the Lobos
Well, finding a way to win at the Marriott Center is difficult, and New Mexico found a way. They were aided by several key plays down the stretch. An offensive rebound that led to an easy putback, a block on BYU's game-tying layup with 2 seconds left, and a tip on the final desperation attempt by BYU with .6 seconds left.
Despite the season sweep, I am still not convinced this Lobo team is better than BYU. I am not just being a homer. Here is my reasoning. BYU played like crap at the Pit. Jimmer was the only one capable of doing anything remotely positive that game, and he only shot 40%. Still, New Mexico needed a few lucky breaks and some solid free throw shooting at the end to come out with a 4-point win. Then, at the Marriott Center, BYU had 3 wide open looks from 3 in the last minute. If they make any one of the 3, they might just have won. They were that close to winning despite playing the entire second half without the services of future second team All-American Jimmer Fredette. If they meet in the conference finals, I do anticipate BYU finding a way to win.
With the win, the Lobos clinch at least a share of the conference championship, and do clinch the number 1 seed in the MWC tournament. I also believe that with the win, Darington Hopson will be the conference player of the year. Why? When BYU wins the conference, they do not get the player of the year, even when they clearly have the player of the year on their team. When they don't win the conference, they certainly won't get it.
I think the loss, while it obviously hurts BYU, has three positive aspects to it. You gotta see the bright side, right? One, they will play UNLV in the second round of the tournament instead of the finals. Nobody can beat UNLV in the Finals. The only chance to knock them off is in the opening round or in the semis. I'm not saying they will beat them in the semis, but the odds are greater there. Two, this puts a 3-seed in the NCAAs as an impossibility. Why is that good, you might ask? Well, if they were a 3-seed in the tourney, they would, in all likelihood, be shipped off to the East Regional played in Syracuse where they have zero chance of any home court advantage. There are some too-long-to-discuss-here bracketing rules that would likely send any 3-seed from the West (BYU, New Mexico, or Gonzaga) to the East (or South in the case of New Mexico) Regional and whatever Big East team ends up with a 3-seed would come to the West Regional. However, as a 4-seed, they will most likely get placed in the West Regional (played in Salt Lake City) and get a San Jose pod in the opening rounds. That gives them a homecourt advantage for as long as they stay in the tournament. Three, talk about a confidence builder for some of the role players. Tyler Haws, Noah Hartsock, and Michael Loyd all had great games, which will help them out in the MWC and NCAA tournaments. They all needed a chance to realize they can play with the best teams in the nation.
Obvious the loss hurts, and you can point to a number of things that caused it. Jimmer not playing, 5 straight empty possessions to end the game, the inability to get defensive rebounds, and 3 of the 4 questionable calls down the stretch went the way of the Lobos (very similar to the game at the Pit). Most BYU fans will blame the calls, or Jimmer not playing. When it comes down to it though, New Mexico made shots and BYU did not. End of story.
Despite the season sweep, I am still not convinced this Lobo team is better than BYU. I am not just being a homer. Here is my reasoning. BYU played like crap at the Pit. Jimmer was the only one capable of doing anything remotely positive that game, and he only shot 40%. Still, New Mexico needed a few lucky breaks and some solid free throw shooting at the end to come out with a 4-point win. Then, at the Marriott Center, BYU had 3 wide open looks from 3 in the last minute. If they make any one of the 3, they might just have won. They were that close to winning despite playing the entire second half without the services of future second team All-American Jimmer Fredette. If they meet in the conference finals, I do anticipate BYU finding a way to win.
With the win, the Lobos clinch at least a share of the conference championship, and do clinch the number 1 seed in the MWC tournament. I also believe that with the win, Darington Hopson will be the conference player of the year. Why? When BYU wins the conference, they do not get the player of the year, even when they clearly have the player of the year on their team. When they don't win the conference, they certainly won't get it.
I think the loss, while it obviously hurts BYU, has three positive aspects to it. You gotta see the bright side, right? One, they will play UNLV in the second round of the tournament instead of the finals. Nobody can beat UNLV in the Finals. The only chance to knock them off is in the opening round or in the semis. I'm not saying they will beat them in the semis, but the odds are greater there. Two, this puts a 3-seed in the NCAAs as an impossibility. Why is that good, you might ask? Well, if they were a 3-seed in the tourney, they would, in all likelihood, be shipped off to the East Regional played in Syracuse where they have zero chance of any home court advantage. There are some too-long-to-discuss-here bracketing rules that would likely send any 3-seed from the West (BYU, New Mexico, or Gonzaga) to the East (or South in the case of New Mexico) Regional and whatever Big East team ends up with a 3-seed would come to the West Regional. However, as a 4-seed, they will most likely get placed in the West Regional (played in Salt Lake City) and get a San Jose pod in the opening rounds. That gives them a homecourt advantage for as long as they stay in the tournament. Three, talk about a confidence builder for some of the role players. Tyler Haws, Noah Hartsock, and Michael Loyd all had great games, which will help them out in the MWC and NCAA tournaments. They all needed a chance to realize they can play with the best teams in the nation.
Obvious the loss hurts, and you can point to a number of things that caused it. Jimmer not playing, 5 straight empty possessions to end the game, the inability to get defensive rebounds, and 3 of the 4 questionable calls down the stretch went the way of the Lobos (very similar to the game at the Pit). Most BYU fans will blame the calls, or Jimmer not playing. When it comes down to it though, New Mexico made shots and BYU did not. End of story.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Recap and Preview
So BYU just wore SDSU out. You could see Billy White on several occasions dogging it up the floor, calling for a sub, settling for a jump shot, or just committing a lazy foul. Malcolm Thomas committed 3 fouls in the second half in VERY FEW minutes actually played because he was a step slow. Kawhi Leonard was slightly under the weather and BYU just ran him out of the gym, so much so that he only saw 24 minutes of action (he averages 31 minutes/game, i.e. a 23% reduction in minutes). BYU made a run late in the first half and then 5 minutes into the second half they just took over the game and dominated the final 15. It was a great strategy, and it helped that Kawhi Leonard was ill. However, BYU was going to win that game whether Kawhi Leonard was healthy or not. The fact is: SDSU is not deep enough to win against a good team at altitude. The MWC Tourney will probably be similar: they aren't deep enough to beat CSU/Utah, then BYU/New Mexico, then UNLV in 3 consecutive days. Unfortunately for them, anything short of winning the tourney probably puts them on the wrong side of the bubble. Beating CSU, then Air Force, then CSU or Utah, followed by a split against 2 of the top 3...they are out of the tournament. They can make a nice run in the NIT, however, especially with home court advantage the first 2 or 3 games.
BYU is really clicking right now in a lot of areas. Davies had a strong showing on Wednesday. Tavernari is dangerous, though his shot selection was a bit sketchy against SDSU. Haws just needs a SHOT to fall that isn't a layup or a free throw. Jimmer is playing well and distributing the ball very well. Miles had some nice plays and has been rebounding the ball very well lately. Jackson Emery has been playing suffocating D, and with his 3-point shot falling, he is going to score, either on the 3, or with a shot fake and easy drive towards the hoop.
Meanwhile, New Mexico is limping in to the game, as much as a team on a 12-game winning streak can be limping. The last 4 games have been against 4 of the 5 worst teams in the conference, with 2 of those games played at home. They have needed overtime to win by 3, a late flurry (and non-foul call on an obvious fall) at home to win by 3, and a bunch of made free throws in the final 2 minutes to win by 6. They are not dominating the lesser competition like they should be. Compare their last two games against to how BYU handled the same competition a week earlier: Air Force (home) a 3-point win and CSU (road) and a 6-point win. BYU: a 43-point win and a 22-point win. I know you can't compare common opponents and determine the winner of a game, but still, that is a monstrous difference in margin of victory, i.e. quality of play against the same competition in the same week.
Of course, throw all of that out going into tomorrow. Who has the better team? Who has the better game plan? Who executes better? Undecided. Undecided. Undecided, though BYU has been executing better of late, as shown in the preceding paragraph. My answers are: BYU, BYU, and BYU. New Mexico has turned it around on the road this season, playing better on the road than they ever have in the history of their program. But in the last decade, they haven't won a single time in the Marriott Center. And they haven't even come close to winning: only one of those games was decided by single digits (9 years ago). Keep in mind, one of those years BYU went 9-21!
BYU 82, New Mexico 71. Anti-climatic for all of the build-up this game has been getting nationally.
UNLV-Air Force: 70-52 for the Rebels.
Wyoming-Utah: 65-57 for Utah. Getting hot just in time to try to steal 5th place away from CSU. Wyoming likes to push tempo. Boylen likes to grind it to a halt. 65 is a relative offensive explosion for Utah and means the game was played too fast for Boylen's liking (and too slow for a lot of his players' liking...).
CSU-TCU: 64-56 to CSU. Big road win needed to stay on track with Utah. Setting up a showdown for 5th place the last game of the season. Loser of that game has to play UNLV in the first round of the UNLV Invitational.
BYU is really clicking right now in a lot of areas. Davies had a strong showing on Wednesday. Tavernari is dangerous, though his shot selection was a bit sketchy against SDSU. Haws just needs a SHOT to fall that isn't a layup or a free throw. Jimmer is playing well and distributing the ball very well. Miles had some nice plays and has been rebounding the ball very well lately. Jackson Emery has been playing suffocating D, and with his 3-point shot falling, he is going to score, either on the 3, or with a shot fake and easy drive towards the hoop.
Meanwhile, New Mexico is limping in to the game, as much as a team on a 12-game winning streak can be limping. The last 4 games have been against 4 of the 5 worst teams in the conference, with 2 of those games played at home. They have needed overtime to win by 3, a late flurry (and non-foul call on an obvious fall) at home to win by 3, and a bunch of made free throws in the final 2 minutes to win by 6. They are not dominating the lesser competition like they should be. Compare their last two games against to how BYU handled the same competition a week earlier: Air Force (home) a 3-point win and CSU (road) and a 6-point win. BYU: a 43-point win and a 22-point win. I know you can't compare common opponents and determine the winner of a game, but still, that is a monstrous difference in margin of victory, i.e. quality of play against the same competition in the same week.
Of course, throw all of that out going into tomorrow. Who has the better team? Who has the better game plan? Who executes better? Undecided. Undecided. Undecided, though BYU has been executing better of late, as shown in the preceding paragraph. My answers are: BYU, BYU, and BYU. New Mexico has turned it around on the road this season, playing better on the road than they ever have in the history of their program. But in the last decade, they haven't won a single time in the Marriott Center. And they haven't even come close to winning: only one of those games was decided by single digits (9 years ago). Keep in mind, one of those years BYU went 9-21!
BYU 82, New Mexico 71. Anti-climatic for all of the build-up this game has been getting nationally.
UNLV-Air Force: 70-52 for the Rebels.
Wyoming-Utah: 65-57 for Utah. Getting hot just in time to try to steal 5th place away from CSU. Wyoming likes to push tempo. Boylen likes to grind it to a halt. 65 is a relative offensive explosion for Utah and means the game was played too fast for Boylen's liking (and too slow for a lot of his players' liking...).
CSU-TCU: 64-56 to CSU. Big road win needed to stay on track with Utah. Setting up a showdown for 5th place the last game of the season. Loser of that game has to play UNLV in the first round of the UNLV Invitational.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
SDSU-BYU
This will probably be the toughest test for the Cougars until round 2 of the conference tournament, or the championship game with a first round upset. I know New Mexico will be a huge test, but as stated previously, I think BYU will have a tougher time this game, i.e. it's a bigger test. Based on the game played earlier this season at SDSU, it would seem that BYU should pull this one out easily: on the road they shot better and were essentially even on rebounding, and SDSU shot 20% higher on free throws than usual. One would expect BYU to shoot and rebound better at home and SDSU to make a lower percentage of free throws on the road. That would mark a landslide victory for the Cougars, considering they had a 5-point lead on the road with 2 seconds left. They should win by 15. They could win by 15. They probably won't win by 15.
SDSU absolutely needs this game. They are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and a win here could push them to the right side of the bubble (last year, they got swept by BYU in-season and it pushed them to the wrong side of it: expect a similar outcome with similar results here). They will go all-out in this game. The motivation they will have is greater than what BYU will have trying to maintain a lead on top of the conference and secure a higher NCAA tournament seed. That can be huge!
2 major differences I see from last time out to this time out:
1) The refs let SDSU and BYU play last time. It was an extremely physical game but with only 23 fouls called. It got very chippy down the stretch and I'm sure the officials won't want the same thing, especially given the fact that SDSU is playing for its tournament life. One might think having more fouls called gives BYU, obviously the better free throw shooting team, the advantage. However, foul trouble is more of an issue for BYU, particularly if Chris Miles, Noah Hartsock, or Jonathan Tavernari get in foul trouble. Because of SDSU's athleticism on the front line (particularly Malcolm Thomas and Billy White), seeing Hartsock and Tavernari on the floor together is going to be a necessity. If either is in foul trouble, BYU is in trouble. SDSU also brings in the big bruiser Cartwell, and Miles will have to able to play to neutralize his size, if he is sitting on the bench with fouls, James Anderson and Brandon Davies will not be able to rebound, or prevent Cartwell from getting to the glass. I think foul trouble would prove to be a bigger disadvantage for BYU than free throw shooting would be an advantage for BYU.
2) Jimmer was playing extremely well the last time these two teams played. Everybody else for BYU was not. Now, JT and Emery are heating up again, Miles has played well offensively of late, and Abouo has been practicing better shot selection. Haws had 22 last game (but those were mostly layups and free throws and he won't be able to find the lanes and get open in transition against SDSU like he did against Wyoming). Hartsock has been a little off of late, offensively. Davies hasn't been himself since before the previous SDSU game. Other people have been stepping up, and they will have to in order to survive tonight. Anything they can get from Loyd, Hartsock, Davies, and Miles, at this point, is gravy. But they need 4 other guys to be scoring against SDSU.
I think both teams are great defensive teams, though totally contrasting styles: SDSU is an aggressive, in your face, apply pressure constantly type of defense; BYU is a fundamentally sound, low pressure, stay between their man and the basket, contest everything type of defense. BYU is a better offensive team, but what SDSU lacks in shooting ability, they make up for in offensive rebounding.
Barring a Jimmer-Fredette-like individual effort from DJ Gay, Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, or Malcolm Thomas, I think SDSU loses a tight one. If one of those 4 scores 30, SDSU wins a tight one. Barring a spectacular (or spectacularly poor) effort from Fredette, JT, or Haws, BYU wins a tight one. If one of those 3 goes for 30, BYU blows them out. If they all go for under 20, BYU loses a tight one. Did I hedge that one enough? If both teams play well, BYU wins. If both teams play great, BYU wins. If both teams play crappy, BYU wins. If BYU plays poorly, SDSU wins. If SDSU plays amazing, SDSU wins. Now I have surely hedged those picks more than enough...BYU is the better team, SDSU must outplay them to win, which is certainly a possibility.
One of SDSU's big 4 scorers will go off, but BYU will counter by one of their scorers doing the same, and it will come down to the play of DJ Gay vs. Jimmer Fredette down the stretch. At home, shooting free throws, Jimmer should win that battle 99 times out of 100. BYU 75, SDSU 70.
SDSU absolutely needs this game. They are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and a win here could push them to the right side of the bubble (last year, they got swept by BYU in-season and it pushed them to the wrong side of it: expect a similar outcome with similar results here). They will go all-out in this game. The motivation they will have is greater than what BYU will have trying to maintain a lead on top of the conference and secure a higher NCAA tournament seed. That can be huge!
2 major differences I see from last time out to this time out:
1) The refs let SDSU and BYU play last time. It was an extremely physical game but with only 23 fouls called. It got very chippy down the stretch and I'm sure the officials won't want the same thing, especially given the fact that SDSU is playing for its tournament life. One might think having more fouls called gives BYU, obviously the better free throw shooting team, the advantage. However, foul trouble is more of an issue for BYU, particularly if Chris Miles, Noah Hartsock, or Jonathan Tavernari get in foul trouble. Because of SDSU's athleticism on the front line (particularly Malcolm Thomas and Billy White), seeing Hartsock and Tavernari on the floor together is going to be a necessity. If either is in foul trouble, BYU is in trouble. SDSU also brings in the big bruiser Cartwell, and Miles will have to able to play to neutralize his size, if he is sitting on the bench with fouls, James Anderson and Brandon Davies will not be able to rebound, or prevent Cartwell from getting to the glass. I think foul trouble would prove to be a bigger disadvantage for BYU than free throw shooting would be an advantage for BYU.
2) Jimmer was playing extremely well the last time these two teams played. Everybody else for BYU was not. Now, JT and Emery are heating up again, Miles has played well offensively of late, and Abouo has been practicing better shot selection. Haws had 22 last game (but those were mostly layups and free throws and he won't be able to find the lanes and get open in transition against SDSU like he did against Wyoming). Hartsock has been a little off of late, offensively. Davies hasn't been himself since before the previous SDSU game. Other people have been stepping up, and they will have to in order to survive tonight. Anything they can get from Loyd, Hartsock, Davies, and Miles, at this point, is gravy. But they need 4 other guys to be scoring against SDSU.
I think both teams are great defensive teams, though totally contrasting styles: SDSU is an aggressive, in your face, apply pressure constantly type of defense; BYU is a fundamentally sound, low pressure, stay between their man and the basket, contest everything type of defense. BYU is a better offensive team, but what SDSU lacks in shooting ability, they make up for in offensive rebounding.
Barring a Jimmer-Fredette-like individual effort from DJ Gay, Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, or Malcolm Thomas, I think SDSU loses a tight one. If one of those 4 scores 30, SDSU wins a tight one. Barring a spectacular (or spectacularly poor) effort from Fredette, JT, or Haws, BYU wins a tight one. If one of those 3 goes for 30, BYU blows them out. If they all go for under 20, BYU loses a tight one. Did I hedge that one enough? If both teams play well, BYU wins. If both teams play great, BYU wins. If both teams play crappy, BYU wins. If BYU plays poorly, SDSU wins. If SDSU plays amazing, SDSU wins. Now I have surely hedged those picks more than enough...BYU is the better team, SDSU must outplay them to win, which is certainly a possibility.
One of SDSU's big 4 scorers will go off, but BYU will counter by one of their scorers doing the same, and it will come down to the play of DJ Gay vs. Jimmer Fredette down the stretch. At home, shooting free throws, Jimmer should win that battle 99 times out of 100. BYU 75, SDSU 70.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Difficult Stretch
This is the second toughest stretch of games for BYU's season (the toughest one was at SDSU and at New Mexico). As far as BYU's chances this week, I really believe they will beat New Mexico. I think it might be a blowout win with big contributions (double-digit scoring) from 3 or 4 players. New Mexico, in the midst of a 10-game win streak, has struggled to pick up wins against teams they should have beaten soundly, most notably Air Force at home this past weekend. Tonight's game at CSU might not be a cakewalk either. The point is: they've been living on the edge and BYU, at home, is the most likely team to knock them off. In addition to that, history is definitely not on their side.
Given the two opponents BYU has this week, New Mexico has struggled much more in the Marriott Center than San Diego State has. New Mexico's last win at the MC came on 2/17/2000. The past two years under Alford (and this year), New Mexico has had a better team than SDSU (finished higher in the conference standings), but has had a much tougher time on the road against BYU. SDSU is 1-2 at home against BYU. New Mexico is 3-0. On the road, however, SDSU has played BYU much tougher than New Mexico, losing by 7 and 3. New Mexico lost those same years by 11 and 17. SDSU has won in the Marriott Center as recently as 2005. Both games will certainly be big tests for BYU, but I think the likelihood of losing is greater for the SDSU game on Wednesday than the New Mexico game on Saturday.
New Mexico beats CSU, 68-63. CSU bounces back after the beatdown by UNLV. Air Force's near upset gives CSU some hope, but not enough.
Utah wins at Air Force, 57-51. Air Force is coming off a "moral" victory. Utah tends to play to the level of their competition. I think it will be a struggle for Utah to "get up" for this game, and it will show in the tightness of the game.
UNLV routs TCU, 81-60. UNLV made a statement last game against CSU. I think they add an exclamation point to that statement. It's too little, too late as far as the conference championship is concerned, but they can still secure a good seed in the NCAA tournament with a strong finish (their final 3 are against the bottom third of the league). They will be on a roll by conference tourney time.
BYU-SDSU preview to come later.
Given the two opponents BYU has this week, New Mexico has struggled much more in the Marriott Center than San Diego State has. New Mexico's last win at the MC came on 2/17/2000. The past two years under Alford (and this year), New Mexico has had a better team than SDSU (finished higher in the conference standings), but has had a much tougher time on the road against BYU. SDSU is 1-2 at home against BYU. New Mexico is 3-0. On the road, however, SDSU has played BYU much tougher than New Mexico, losing by 7 and 3. New Mexico lost those same years by 11 and 17. SDSU has won in the Marriott Center as recently as 2005. Both games will certainly be big tests for BYU, but I think the likelihood of losing is greater for the SDSU game on Wednesday than the New Mexico game on Saturday.
New Mexico beats CSU, 68-63. CSU bounces back after the beatdown by UNLV. Air Force's near upset gives CSU some hope, but not enough.
Utah wins at Air Force, 57-51. Air Force is coming off a "moral" victory. Utah tends to play to the level of their competition. I think it will be a struggle for Utah to "get up" for this game, and it will show in the tightness of the game.
UNLV routs TCU, 81-60. UNLV made a statement last game against CSU. I think they add an exclamation point to that statement. It's too little, too late as far as the conference championship is concerned, but they can still secure a good seed in the NCAA tournament with a strong finish (their final 3 are against the bottom third of the league). They will be on a roll by conference tourney time.
BYU-SDSU preview to come later.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
The Last Time Around
3 years ago, BYU entered spring practice after losing John Beck to graduation with a lot of question marks, and a lot of potential, at the QB position. There were four QBs battling for the starting job. 3 sophomores and 1 freshman. Ultimately, Max Hall won out and he turned out to have the winningest career of any BYU QB. But what happened to the other 3 QBs?
Brenden Gaskins was Hall's backup for 3 years (I know he was technically 3rd string this year after giving up his backup job to Riley Nelson: but if Hall had been hurt, I guarantee you Gaskins would have come in, not Nelson!).
Cade Cooper broke his leg in the spring game and transferred to Oregon (but never enrolled) and finally ended up at Southern Utah where he started this past season as a senior. The team went 5-6, while he passed for nearly 3,000 yards and completed 65% of his passes. He was a southpaw who had a tendency to force some throws (kind of like the guy who won the job at BYU...). He would have been a great scout team QB for BYU, nothing more, nothing less. His career was better for having left BYU and BYU didn't really miss him, in the end.
Jacob Bower transferred to Tulsa, where he currently serves as the backup QB to G.J. Kinne. Since Kinne is one year behind Bower in school, it is unlikely he will ever start, barring injury. If he were at BYU still, he would very likely be in line to start at BYU next year. Oops. That's OK for BYU, he is the backup at Tulsa with a 50% career completion percentage! His presence may have scared Jake Heaps off, which means Ross Apo and possibly Zac Stout (3 of BYU's 4 most prized recruits) might not have signed with BYU. So I think Bower's transfer was a good thing for BYU, but probably a bad thing for him.
So now it comes again, Max Hall is gone and BYU has 4 guys who COULD compete for the starting spot (though really only 3 since Jason Munns arrives next fall so I have to assume he won't win the job in fall camp). My guess is that at least one of them will transfer out of the program. Time will tell how it all works out. I think with 3 or 4 guys who should be good, at least one of them actually will be, and that's the good news for BYU fans. Here are my thoughts on the 4 QBs competing for the job this time around:
Riley Nelson was the heir apparent after serving last year in the backup QB roll. He has had time to be coached by the BYU staff and learn the BYU offense. He has had a year to get his pre-mission legs back. His greatest asset is his running ability. However, I would be surprised if he ultimately wins the starting job because he is not what you would call a precision passer, which is absolutely vital to a BYU QB's success. I think he would be best utilized with some Wild Cougar sets and BYU will definitely need to mix it up a bit on O next year because they will be breaking new TEs and a new QB. Plus, I think that is the best chance he has to see action on the field. He won't transfer if he isn't the starting QB, but I just don't see him on the field as a BYU quarterback. He is built somewhat like Tebow as a player, but he's certainly not Tebow. And this is Florida's offense either...
James Lark, I believe, has a leg up on the potential competitors. He redshirted a year prior to his mission, where he learned the offense, which puts him ahead of Jake Heaps. He has the arm strength and precision (or at least he did in high school) that a BYU QB needs to succeed, which puts him ahead of Riley Nelson. He returned from his mission in time to participate in spring drills, which puts him ahead of Jason Munns. It's quite likely, however, that he'll be the Brenden Gaskins in the group: a career backup who is a solid QB in his own right and would do great if called upon. I'm not sure he would transfer out if he wasn't named the starter.
Jake Heaps is the pure passer. He is "the hype." He is one of the greatest QBs coming out of high school this year, if not THE greatest (of course the experts say this is a particularly weak class for QBs, maybe that's because the best of the bunch didn't go to a BCS school...just saying, it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy). The experts also say his ability to read defenses is beyond his years. His accuracy, timing, and footwork are all supposedly flawless. However, that was in high school. This is Division I football, baby! How would he handle a Nick Holt-coached Washington defense? Or a Florida State defense on the road led by one of the Stoops brothers? Or TCU or Utah's always nasty and stingy defenses? That's a lot different than what he was seeing at the high school level. However, the kid started 3 years in high school and only lost 2 games and won 3 state championships. He was Washington State player of the year. He was first team All-American. He was the MVP of the Elite 8 camp (meaning he was the best of the 8 best high school QBs in the region). He was the starting QB for the West in the High School All-American Bowl. The kid is as good, as prepared, and as equipped to succeed on the big stage as any QB to set foot on BYU campus possibly ever, or certainly since Ty Detmer stepped onto campus. If you had an experienced senior moving in to take the starting job, I could see you making this kid wait a year to play. But given what you have in the system, how could you not give this kid the reigns from Day One? I imagine he will either be the starter or the backup as a true freshman, so he will stay put regardless (maybe if he drops to 3rd or 4th, however...).
Jason Munns has the size, arm strength, pocket presence, etc. to succeed as a QB. However, he won't get home from his mission this summer and there's no way he can break into the top 3 with that kind of a disadvantage. The guy was hyped coming out of high school like crazy. But if you can't put in the time, you aren't going to see the field. I would be shocked if this kid ends up staying at BYU for longer than a semester, if he even shows up at all! He's probably going to be a very successful QB, but he's 4th in line with no guarantees he'll ever get higher than that. BYU already has another QB committed for the 2011 recruiting class. I just don't think he's going to survive at BYU. He will probably be the Cade Cooper or Jacob Bower of the group (a starter at a crappy I-AA school or a solid backup at a decent I-A school).
Brenden Gaskins was Hall's backup for 3 years (I know he was technically 3rd string this year after giving up his backup job to Riley Nelson: but if Hall had been hurt, I guarantee you Gaskins would have come in, not Nelson!).
Cade Cooper broke his leg in the spring game and transferred to Oregon (but never enrolled) and finally ended up at Southern Utah where he started this past season as a senior. The team went 5-6, while he passed for nearly 3,000 yards and completed 65% of his passes. He was a southpaw who had a tendency to force some throws (kind of like the guy who won the job at BYU...). He would have been a great scout team QB for BYU, nothing more, nothing less. His career was better for having left BYU and BYU didn't really miss him, in the end.
Jacob Bower transferred to Tulsa, where he currently serves as the backup QB to G.J. Kinne. Since Kinne is one year behind Bower in school, it is unlikely he will ever start, barring injury. If he were at BYU still, he would very likely be in line to start at BYU next year. Oops. That's OK for BYU, he is the backup at Tulsa with a 50% career completion percentage! His presence may have scared Jake Heaps off, which means Ross Apo and possibly Zac Stout (3 of BYU's 4 most prized recruits) might not have signed with BYU. So I think Bower's transfer was a good thing for BYU, but probably a bad thing for him.
So now it comes again, Max Hall is gone and BYU has 4 guys who COULD compete for the starting spot (though really only 3 since Jason Munns arrives next fall so I have to assume he won't win the job in fall camp). My guess is that at least one of them will transfer out of the program. Time will tell how it all works out. I think with 3 or 4 guys who should be good, at least one of them actually will be, and that's the good news for BYU fans. Here are my thoughts on the 4 QBs competing for the job this time around:
Riley Nelson was the heir apparent after serving last year in the backup QB roll. He has had time to be coached by the BYU staff and learn the BYU offense. He has had a year to get his pre-mission legs back. His greatest asset is his running ability. However, I would be surprised if he ultimately wins the starting job because he is not what you would call a precision passer, which is absolutely vital to a BYU QB's success. I think he would be best utilized with some Wild Cougar sets and BYU will definitely need to mix it up a bit on O next year because they will be breaking new TEs and a new QB. Plus, I think that is the best chance he has to see action on the field. He won't transfer if he isn't the starting QB, but I just don't see him on the field as a BYU quarterback. He is built somewhat like Tebow as a player, but he's certainly not Tebow. And this is Florida's offense either...
James Lark, I believe, has a leg up on the potential competitors. He redshirted a year prior to his mission, where he learned the offense, which puts him ahead of Jake Heaps. He has the arm strength and precision (or at least he did in high school) that a BYU QB needs to succeed, which puts him ahead of Riley Nelson. He returned from his mission in time to participate in spring drills, which puts him ahead of Jason Munns. It's quite likely, however, that he'll be the Brenden Gaskins in the group: a career backup who is a solid QB in his own right and would do great if called upon. I'm not sure he would transfer out if he wasn't named the starter.
Jake Heaps is the pure passer. He is "the hype." He is one of the greatest QBs coming out of high school this year, if not THE greatest (of course the experts say this is a particularly weak class for QBs, maybe that's because the best of the bunch didn't go to a BCS school...just saying, it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy). The experts also say his ability to read defenses is beyond his years. His accuracy, timing, and footwork are all supposedly flawless. However, that was in high school. This is Division I football, baby! How would he handle a Nick Holt-coached Washington defense? Or a Florida State defense on the road led by one of the Stoops brothers? Or TCU or Utah's always nasty and stingy defenses? That's a lot different than what he was seeing at the high school level. However, the kid started 3 years in high school and only lost 2 games and won 3 state championships. He was Washington State player of the year. He was first team All-American. He was the MVP of the Elite 8 camp (meaning he was the best of the 8 best high school QBs in the region). He was the starting QB for the West in the High School All-American Bowl. The kid is as good, as prepared, and as equipped to succeed on the big stage as any QB to set foot on BYU campus possibly ever, or certainly since Ty Detmer stepped onto campus. If you had an experienced senior moving in to take the starting job, I could see you making this kid wait a year to play. But given what you have in the system, how could you not give this kid the reigns from Day One? I imagine he will either be the starter or the backup as a true freshman, so he will stay put regardless (maybe if he drops to 3rd or 4th, however...).
Jason Munns has the size, arm strength, pocket presence, etc. to succeed as a QB. However, he won't get home from his mission this summer and there's no way he can break into the top 3 with that kind of a disadvantage. The guy was hyped coming out of high school like crazy. But if you can't put in the time, you aren't going to see the field. I would be shocked if this kid ends up staying at BYU for longer than a semester, if he even shows up at all! He's probably going to be a very successful QB, but he's 4th in line with no guarantees he'll ever get higher than that. BYU already has another QB committed for the 2011 recruiting class. I just don't think he's going to survive at BYU. He will probably be the Cade Cooper or Jacob Bower of the group (a starter at a crappy I-AA school or a solid backup at a decent I-A school).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)