65 predictions, #49

7 weeks until football, y'all.

#49: SDSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming will combine for at least two upsets of the top 4 in the MWC. This has typically been a top heavy conference, with TCU, BYU, Utah, and Air Force pretty well winning all of their games against the bottom half of the conference. This year, with new coaches at these 3 schools, they will pull off at least two shockers against the Big 4.

65 predictions, #50

Sorry, this is yesterday's post:
Two teams lead the class for non-BCS school to take the biggest step in the wrong direction from last year: Ball State and Utah. Ball State's coach jumped ship for San Diego State, it must have been about the weather, the conference, and the $$$. Why else would you leave a 12-2 team for a team that hasn't been bowling since, what, Marshall Faulk played there? Ball State does play in a weaker division of a weak conference. They stacked the non-conference with a couple of patsies (can a MAC team really say that?). Utah lost a lot of key personnel and coaches. They play two or three non-conference games that are tougher than any game on Ball State's schedule, not to mention there are two or three MWC opponents that will be tougher than anything else Ball State will see. Of course, Utah is also clearly the better team...

#50: After 12 regular season wins last year, both Ball State and the University of Utah manage only 8 wins this season to tie for the worst turnaround among non-BCS schools.

65 predictions, #51

The biggest non-BCS turnaround usually happens in the Sun Belt, where the smallest amount of improvement can lead to the most victories because of the weakness of that conference. However, the only really strong candidate (based on lack of wins last season: 1) is the Mean Green of North Texas. However, looking at how the schedule stacks up, after 7 games at best they will be 2-5, and more likely 1-6 or 0-7. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence that the Sun Belt will continue their tradition of having the non-BCS team with the biggest turnaround. Western Kentucky is another possibility: this is their first official year in I-A, and they are joining the Sun Belt. However, they were 0-5 against the Sun Belt last season, though most of those were fairly close games.

The next thought usually goes to the MAC, where the West Division's top two teams had coaches jump ship for better conferences. However, Toledo and Eastern Michigan, the two bottom feeders each had 3 wins apiece last year, so to get the biggest turnaround they'll need to get to 7 or 8 this year. With their non-conference schedule, that won't happen.

Realistically we are left with two possibilities: SDSU (2-10) and SMU (1-11).

#51: SMU will have the biggest turnaround for a non-BCS school this season. This is Coach Jones' second year in the program and he can make a bit of a splash, though don't expect too much: 5 wins is reachable, 6 isn't that unlikely. The top of his division is tough, but he can make up ground on the fledgling programs not named Tulsa, Rice, and Houston. They have winnable conference road games at UAB and Marshall. I think you will see a 4 or 5 game turnaround from the Mustangs.

65 predictions, #52

Every season we all wait with eager anticipation for the preseason top 25 polls to come out. Inevitably, the final poll looks extremely different than the preseason one. Last year's preseason AP poll had the following gaffes in the top 10 alone: Georgia as #1, finished 13th; Mizzou as #6, finished 19th; LSU as #7, finished 3rd in the "others receiving votes" category (we'll call it 28th); West Virginia as #8, finished 23rd; Clemson as #9, finished completely out of the rankings (not even receiving a single vote); and Auburn was #10, did not even get bowl eligible. So the AP did OK on 2-5 (tough to miss on Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC), but completely missed #1 and 6-10. While we don't have the actual poll to make fun of just yet, I am going to predict which teams that might start as the media's darlings will end up underachieving (or prove to have been overrated).

#52: There are several schools that might qualify for biggest misses of the year. We'll start in the SEC, since 3 of our 5 examples from last year are from there. Ole Miss is not nearly as good as you read. I know I predicted them as the team to watch out for in the SEC West, but only because I think the SEC West will be down a bit this season. They will most likely start in the top 10, and finish in the 20's.

Oklahoma State does get 8 home games this season. They snuck up on a few people last year. The problem is you don't get to sneak up on people two years in a row. The other problem is that a home game doesn't guarantee a win, particularly if you're opponent is better than you. Georgia, Missouri, and Texas all have pretty good chances to beat them. The problem with playing so many games at home: it makes it harder to win on the road! The Cowboys don't go on the road until week 6, the second weekend in October! I would not be surprised in the least if Okie State loses to A&M there. At Baylor will be no walk in the park and they finish the year at Oklahoma. I'm predicting at least 3 losses, possibly as many as 5.
Moving to the Pac 10: Oregon and California both are potential preseason top 10 teams that could flop. Oregon has faded down the stretch every year for the last umpteen years. It's science. California has never handled the spotlight very well. They play each other, in addition to USC, so one of these teams already has two losses before the season even begins. Oregon plays at Boise State before hosting Purdue and Utah. They also play at UCLA and at Arizona, both losable games. California plays Maryland and at Minnesota. They also travel to Oregon and Arizona State during the season. Oregon is probably the more likely of the two to completely flop, but with the Ducks hosting Cal, both teams are likely going to have single-digit wins.

I want to add Ohio State here as well, but their relatively light schedule puts them at worst 9-3. With that record and their embarrassing schedule (minus USC), they SHOULD be out of the top 25, but I'm sure they'd be fluttering around 10-15 in the final polls even if they did lose both their tough games plus another conference game.

65 predictions, #53

Sunday's prediction.

Every year we see teams go back to mediocrity after a breakout year, top 10 finish, etc. There are two possible BCS conference candidates for biggest turnaround in the wrong direction: Texas Tech and Cincinnati.

#53: When there is a tossup like this, you have to figure the margin for error is smaller in the Big 12 than the Big East, so Texas Tech will likely take the crown here. Texas Tech went 11-1 last regular season, the sole loss being at Oklahoma. They then followed up their stellar regular season with an embarrassing loss to Ole Miss. They lost key personnel. Their coach isn't pleased with his contract situation. The schedule, while not that much more difficult than last year's, isn't as kind as it was for the breakout season last year. They play at Texas, at Nebraska, at Oklahoma State, they get Oklahoma and Kansas at home, and even playing Baylor at a neutral site might be a difficult way to end the season. Texas A&M should also be improved this year (how many years in a row have I thought this same thing???) and hungry after some of the things Coach Leach said about the Aggies this off-season in regards to the NFL draft. They always have a cake-walk in the non-conference (they usually have 2 I-AA teams, only 1 this year), but look for Houston and New Mexico to put up a little bit of a fight before falling, Houston being the more likely to pull off the upset. I think you are looking at a 7-win season for the Red Raiders. I am sure the Bearcats will give Tech all they can handle, as they battle for the biggest slide among BCS conference teams, but I give the edge to Tech, based on the strength of the Big 12.

65 predictions, #54

Saturday's prediction

Every season there is some team that sparks a magical turnaround from the previous season. We see a team that went 3-9 turn it around and go 9-3 and go to a good bowl game. This is common among BCS conferences as well as non-BCS conferences. I will pick my biggest BCS turnaround today.

#54: The University of Washington will have the biggest BCS turnaround, winning at least 5 more games this season than last season's 0-12 trainwreck. 1) the new head coach, Steve Sarkisian, will make a HUGE difference. He is a winner, he won as a player at BYU (14-1, top 5 finish) and he won while coaching as an assistant at USC. He knows how to attack Pac 10 defenses as he did it very successfully with the Trojans. 2) Good old Ty, who unfortunately is not a very good coach, is a great recruiter. There is some size, there is some speed, and there is some talent on the roster. With a healthy Jake Locker (who should be more accurate this year), they will get out of the Pac 10 cellar this season. In 2010, look for UW to get back to a bowl game. Mush Huskies.

Alternate is the University of Michigan, coming off a 3-9 season: but they'd have to get to 8 wins this year to match Washington's turnaround, and they still have issues at quarterback. Coach RR is building for the future: i.e. he isn't adapting his offense to his personnel, he's trying to adapt his personnel to his offense. That's a good long-term strategy, but not so good in the short run. That's why the Michigan turnaround will be slower.

65 predictions, #55

Well, less than 8 weeks until the first game kicks off. Then we get 4 straight months of football. After that, two major trophies go out. Yesterday I gave you a prediction about one of the trophies: the BCS National Championship Trophy. Or at least I told you who wasn't going to hoist it. Today I will tell you who will be lifting up the coveted Heisman Trophy in December.

#55: Barring an injury, Texas Longhorn QB Colt McCoy will win the Heisman Trophy this season. He will throw for over 4,000 yards and his team will compete for the Big 12 title and National Championship. Unlike Bradford and Tebow, you remove Colt McCoy from Texas and they are no longer a top 5 team. He has a pretty light schedule to pile up stats, but it's also tough enough that he will be challenged on the big stage and have a chance to showcase his ability. As my OU fan buddy said about him: Colt McCoy exemplifies Texas. He is a class act. He works hard. He improves each day. If he is any better than he was last season, there is no one that can stand between him and the Heisman Trophy.

65 Predictions, #56

Well it's the day after the MWC and WAC gave in and signed the BCS agreement. They are back to being part of the problem for at least the next 4 years. So I am going to make a BCS prediction today.

#56: the MWC and WAC will not have a representative in the championship game this season. Neither will the Big East or ACC. I know it's not a bold prediction, but I can say with certainty that it's accurate! What I am really saying is: for the foreseeable future (4 years), the BCS is going to choose schools from the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, or USC to play for the National Championship. It is not about being the best team over the course of a season, it is about being one of the best teams over the season AND being one of the best programs over the previous two or three seasons. In college football, you just can't go from 0-12 to 12-0 and National Champion, unfortunate though it may be. Since TCU won a national championship in the 1940's, only 24 different teams have won national championships, only one of them a non-BCS school (BYU in 1984), so it's been a closed club LONG before the BCS came into existence. If Utah went 12-0 again this year, they could get a crack at it: problem is they won't. For a non-BCS school to have a shot, they need to have back-to-back undefeated seasons, the 1st one ending with a BCS bowl victory, and they need to return 16+ starters, including a QB and a defensive captain. What are the odds of that? Well, according to my prediction for this season: ZERO.

Honestly, if Utah did what it did in 2008 back in 1998, they would have played a 5th place Pac 10 nobody in the whocares.com bowl with a tiny payout. They may have gotten the shaft for the NC last year, but it's more money and more exposure than it would have been even 5 years ago. There is progress, just not equality.

65 Predictions, #57

#57: The ACC will not have 10 bowl-eligible teams again this season. Last season the ACC set a record with their 10 bowl games. Since the expansion to 12 teams in 2004, they have had 8 bowl-eligible teams every season. There were two main reasons behind the jump to 10 last year: non-conference record (which you could argue is because they are a superior conference or that they scheduled mostly patsies outside of the conference), and the fact that there were no dominant teams at the top (you could argue that is parity because the teams at the bottom got better or that it is parity because the teams at the top got worse).

You want to talk schedules, ACC teams only play one more game against BCS teams (not counting Notre Dame) out of conference than they do against I-AA teams, 15-14. Last year, they played BCS teams 18 times and I-AA teams 15. Using that as the only criteria (I know it isn't very robust but whatever) I would say the schedule has eased slightly this year.

I predict they won't get 10 teams bowling this year because of the resurgence of some dominant teams at the top, leaving fewer wins left for the bottom. Last year, BC, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech combined for 12 losses in conference by the top 4 in the league (in 2007 the top 4 combined for 8 ACC losses, 9 in 2006, and 9 in 2005). This year, the ACC losses by the top 4 will go back to 9, leaving 3 less wins available for those trying to get bowl eligible. Maybe their slightly weaker non-conference schedule this year will make up for those 3 wins, but I'm predicting only 8 or 9 bowl-eligible ACC teams.

65 Predictions, #59 & 58

Well, it's my birthday today, and so I am going to give you a gift: you get 2 predictions today! Mostly because I didn't get around to yesterday's prediction yesterday.

#59: The Commander-In-Chief Trophy will remain in Annapolis this year. In case you do not know what this is, I will explain: it is the trophy given to the winner of the triangular rivalry of Army, Air Force, and Navy. Navy and Air Force play the first weekend in October, Air Force and Army play the first weekend in November, and Army and Navy play the first weekend in December. For the past several years, Navy has taken home the trophy. I predict they do the same this year. In the event of a 3-way tie, the "title" is shared, but the trophy remains with last year's winner. Thus I predict Navy will retain the trophy due to a shared or outright title.

#58: The Sun Belt will send two teams bowling again this season. Last year for the first time in the conference's history, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams AND 2 of them went to bowl games. The streak of multiple bowl bids continues this year. After this season they will ink a contract for the second bowl bid, instead of sending a second team in "at-large" fashion (b/c other conferences don't have enough qualifiers to send to their contracted games.) I predict: at least Troy, Florida Atlantic, and Arkansas State will qualify for bowl games, and at least two of them will go. Troy, as conference champion, will get the lone guaranteed berth.