CU 2012 FB Predictions

Michael: Colorado has been in a bit of a downward spiral over the last 10-15 years.  They finally have a coach that seems to understand what CU football has been about historically and is bent on trying to return CU to where it was in the 80’s and 90’s.  With that said, he doesn’t have much in the way of talent, depth, or experience on the roster.

This is Year Two, a crucial year for any new head coach: he either wins over the players to “doing it his way” or he loses them and may never get them back.  The schedule lightens up a little bit early in the season, so that should help the Buffs build some confidence early in the year.  It’s not out of the realm of possibilities for CU to 5-1, possibly even 6-0.  Then the schedule gets “interesting” (slash impossible).

I do believe CU has a chance to surprise some people that picked them last in the South.  I’d be shocked, honestly, if they finished 5 or 6 in a very top-heavy South.  With three schools (UCLA, ASU, and Arizona) hiring new head coaches this off-season, CU has a little more continuity working in their favor.  Plus I believe they are similar talent-wise to Arizona and ASU right now, so the coaching edge may be all they need to get a leg-up in the standings.

Matt: **It should be noted that CU is my team, I live and breathe CU, so please take that into account while judging my predictions. I hope my reasoning and logic is sound enough to eliminate ALL of my biases** While I disagree with Michael in that CU lacks talent or depth on their roster, it’s certainly difficult to argue the lack of experience for the young Buffs. Clearly in the wake of the Dan Hawkins era and scandal ridden end to the Gary Barnett era, the Colorado football program has surely seen better days. However, in Jon Embree I see a coach with a great vision and enormous upside in Boulder. As an alum under coach Bill McCartney and as a position coach in the NFL, Coach Embree knows what he’s looking for out of his players and has established quite a new culture in Boulder post the “Hawk-love” zen nonsense that was in play by his predecessor.

CU’s goal has been extremely transparent coming into this season as everyone from the coaching staff to the walk-ons are preaching Bowl Game. This ‘6 or more wins or bust’ attitude would be a momentous achievement for this rebuilding Buffs program, and a vast improvement on a 3-10 campaign in Coach Embree’s first year. The Buffs will face this challenge with a new team, as their starting QB, RB, along with most of their starters from a year ago graduated (CU is only returning 13 starters: 4 on offense, 7 on defense, and their P & K). Kansas transfer QB Jordan Webb was recently named the starter of this new-look Buffs group and is tabbed to lead the way with his experience edge over the other contenders.

CU’s schedule is pretty challenging. Facing USC, Oregon, Stanford, and UW once again will make life difficult on the Buffs (and especially on this young defense). However, the early part of their schedule features many winnable games, and green coaches. In fact, the Buffaloes face 6 teams who will have a new face roaming the sideline. This fact gives CU hope against the likes of UCLA, Arizona St, and Washington St—all games they lost a season ago. With a Bowl game berth ensconced in their sights, the Buffs will be poised to garner at least 6 wins this season, a feat which would catapult this program into a bright future.

Game-by-game Predictions

Vs. CSU (Invesco), 9/1, 2pm (Mountain), FX

Michael: CSU will certainly employ a run-first mentality, so they have to get off to a fast start.  If they get down early, they’ll stay down.  Talent-level, in my opinion, is at the lowest it’s been since pre-Lubick.  I didn’t like Fairchild as a coach or a person, so I am happy to see CSU add a classy guy, even if he is a “Saban disciple.”  CU wins easy: CU 31, CSU 10.

Matt: The annual ‘Rocky Mountain Showdown’ has lost its national luster in these past few years, but don’t underestimate just how much this game means to both of these programs. Starting your season off with a win is every team’s goal, but when wins are at such a premium for these Colorado schools you have to pounce on every opportunity you can. The Buffs have won each of the past two matchups and look to extend that winning streak against the Rams this year in Denver. CSU will be featuring a new coach, QB, and a lot of new faces on D. Jim McElwain will take the reins in his first ever head coaching gig coming over from the National Champion Crimson Tide, trying to establish his pro-style offense with a non-pro style QB.

Both talent and surprisingly experience both favor CU here in a game that I don’t see will be that close. The first half will start slow with both teams trying to establish the run and feel each other out. CU has good depth at RB and an experienced OL which will propel them versus a VERY undersized CSU defensive front seven (CSU’s largest DL is listed at 265 at the moment). CU’s will take an early lead and force CSU to throw in the 2nd half. Pass rush and good secondary play will seal Colorado’s easy victory early in the 2nd half as the Buffs will cruise. CU 27 CSU 13

Sacramento State, 9/8, 1pm, Pac 12 Network

Michael: Sacramento State is a bad FCS team.  Yes, they won at Oregon State last year, but the proximity of the schools means the Sac State players all felt slighted by the Beavers and played with a huge chip.  They won’t have the same motivation against the Buffs: CU 34, Sac State 10.

Matt: Nightmares of CU’s potentially most embarrassing loss in team history against Montana St still linger in the thoughts of Buff fans. Especially since this very same Sacramento St team downed a Pac-12 team only 1 year ago when they visited Oregon St in Corvallis.

CU under the Embree regime will not be allowed to take any game lightly, and the Buffs fully understand what this game means. An FCS opponent on your schedule is as close to a “free-win” as you can get if you’re a ‘BCS team’ and the Buffs know that they may NEED this game in order to reach their bowl game goal.

I see the Buffs establishing their running attack early and often, and depth wears down the thin SacSt D en route to an easy victory. CU 38 Sac St 13

At Fresno State, 9/15, 6pm, CBS SN

Michael: Pat Hill’s demise has been a long-time coming.  Fresno hasn’t really fielded a competitive team in a few years.  With the emergence of Boise State, the Bulldogs seemed to disappear from the national view, and even started to fall apart in WAC play, particularly as Nevada rose up under Colin Kaepernick.  CU will probably struggle, given that they haven’t won a non-conference road game in my son’s lifetime, but there should be just enough confidence on the offensive side of the ball to win a low-scoring contest against a much less-talented team: CU 23, Fresno 14.

Matt: The day after Thanksgiving win over Utah @ Rice-Eccles ended one of the longest stretches of road futility in recent college football memory for the Buffs, and also served as a good building block going forward. This game @ Fresno may not seem like a monumental affair, but for CU it will be a big confidence boost to go on the road (and out of the time zone this time) and snatch a victory. Fresno features a new coach after the long tenure of Pat Hill and will assuredly be coming off a loss @ Oregon the prior week.

I expect CU to come out sluggish as per usual on the road as Buff Nation takes a deep sigh of “here we go again” and to trail at half. The 2nd half watch for CU to come out firing and quickly get the momentum on their side. Come the 4th quarter, I expect CU’s Pac-12 athletes to eke out a close one. CU 24 Fresno St 20.

At Washington State, 9/22

Michael: I think the game at BYU will tell CU all they need to know about Wazu.  If BYU is able to pound the ball and play keep-away, and force the Wazu offense to get impatient, CU will have a winning formula as well.  CU should be looking to rush for 200+ here, and possibly put Time of Possession close to 40 minutes on their side.  I do think of the 5 games before the bye this is the one that CU is most likely to lose.  I think the confidence gained from the prior week’s win on the road is enough to propel the Buffs, and the ground game to a victory: CU 31, Wazu 24.

Matt: New look Wazzou and Coach Mike Leach should have the Air Raid in full effect coming off a tune up with Eastern Washington prior to meeting the Buffs in Pullman. Last year Wazzou carved up a completely depleted Buffs secondary for over 300 yards and a heartbreaking loss for the Buffs’ first Pac-12 conference game ever—a game Coach Embree will not have forgotten.

CU has always fared decently against Mike Leach coached teams and the secondary will undoubtedly be improved from a year ago (without having walk-on WR’s playing DB), but this will not be a cake walk. CU’s strength on offense will be their running game, while Wazzou will struggle to stop the run. Wazzou should still be able to pass the ball well despite CU’s improved secondary. This game will likely be a shootout and come down to who makes fewer mistakes. CU’s discipline on offense and dedication to the running game will slow Wazzou down enough to make them inpatient and make a couple mistakes. With multiple lead changes in the 2nd half, the Buffs will control the ball and clock at the end of the game to set up a walk-off chip shot FG. CU 37 Wazzou 34.

UCLA, 9/29

Michael: A 4-0 Buffs team should generate some buzz in Boulder.  I think UCLA has the physical advantage here, but so much of college sports is the psychological side.  Who knows where UCLA will be at this point in the season.  They play a winnable road game at Rice, but have several potential L’s on the schedule ahead of this one with Nebraska, Houston, and Oregon State all coming to the Rose Bowl.  If the Bruins are 1-3 with all kinds of young QB mistakes, they’ll probably roll over in Boulder, at altitude.  At 2-2, or 3-1, it’s a different story.  I’m leaning 2-2 for them and giving CU a good game, but Mora probably outsmarts himself and will have trouble adjusting to the college game and dealing with the amateur athletes that play it: CU 23, UCLA 16.

Matt: With CU off to their best start in a long time, confidence is flying high as the Buffs return to Boulder to face UCLA. The same cannot be said for the Bruins who are still working out the kinks of a new head coach in Jim Mora Jr. and new offensive coordinator in Noel Mazzone—as well as starting a freshman at QB in Brett Hundley. The fast start equals a full and boisterous crowd in Boulder and causes problem for the young QB who will make some bad decisions and turn the ball over. I predict CU will jump out to an early first half lead only to watch it be whittled away in the 2^nd half. Come the 4^th quarter Buffs come away after another late mistake by the young QB. CU 27 UCLA 23.

Arizona State, 10/11, 7pm, ESPN

Michael: The Buffs could easily be 5-0 here against what I believe will be a struggling Arizona State team, with a national broadcast on ESPN on Thursday night.  ASU will have a steep learning curve: the style of seasoned head coach (and reputed thug-recruiter) and the disciplinarian newer guy have been quite well-documented in other venues, should someone care to find them.  But there’s still some talent on the roster, if Coach Graham can keep them on the field.  It’s a big game for ASU too, so I suspect they’ll play their game of the season.  They’ll need a win if they have any desires to make a bowl game but I just don’t see it: CU 27, ASU 17.  On a side note, I do believe CU will start 5-1, not 6-0, but I couldn’t figure out which game it is that they’ll drop…if I have to pick one, and i do because there's no chance they'll be 6-0, I’ll say UCLA scores a TD in the waning moments to win 24-23.

Matt: Coming off a bye week and bursting with confidence (and their first appearance in the top 25 polls in a LONG time) the Buffs welcome Arizona St to Folsom for an ESPN primetime showdown. CU, much like last year’s game in primetime at home (USC), will don their all-black uniforms and helmets as the Buff team and fans host a “blackout.” ASU is also coming off a bye, although they are not coming in with a 5-0 record. Struggling to adapt to the new culture change of coach Graham coupled with a difficult early season schedule means bad news for the Sun Devils.

Buffs, behind a wild crowd and a bowl berth in hand come out firing against ASU and grab an early lead of 17 by halftime. ASU will whittle it down with a nervous CU crowd watching in the second half as the lead dwindles to 3 with only 5:00 remaining and all the momentum on the side of ASU. Buffs get a HUGE 3rd and 12 conversion and kneel their way to victory and a bowl berth! CU 29 ASU 26.

At USC, 10/20

Michael: A road trip to the #1 team in the land, playing its first home game in a month, against what could potentially be its fourth ranked opponent of the season.  The Coliseum will be rocking.  The stars will be out in full force.  There’s certainly some potential, from USC’s perspective, to overlook this CU game after winning at CU by 25 last year.  However, this is a team on a mission to destroy everyone in their path.  It’s just unfortunate that Lane Kiffin is their coach.  I just can’t get behind him in any fashion.  I’d like to think CU can give USC a game, but there is nothing that leads me to believe that they will: they are young, inexperienced, and entirely outmatched physically.  If the Buffs are 6-0 and bowl-bound, they’ve already achieved their season goal: how can they readjust their priorities mid-season?  They can't, USC mashes: USC 45, CU 13.

Matt: 6-0 and feeling good, the Buffs take a trip down to Southern Cal for a reality check. Matt Barkley led USC Trojans feature perhaps the most talent laden team in the entire country. The Buffs who reached their Bowl eligibility with their white-knuckle victory over ASU breathes a pseudo sigh of relief and comes into this game flat. Flat is no good against the mighty men of Troy. Last year the Buffs came out firing and scored first only to get trampled 42-17. I fear more of the same this year for the young Buffaloes who will fall here and fall hard. USC 40 CU 21.

At Oregon, 10/27

Michael: This is a bit of a trap-game for Oregon, sandwiched between road contests at Arizona State and USC.  ESPN will already be hyping the SC game and Oregon may forget they have to take care of business to set up the “showdown” in LA.  I’m sure there will be some sloppy play by the Ducks offensively, but I suspect they’ll still control this one: Oregon 38, CU 20.

Matt: After a humbling defeat at the hands of the Trojans, the road does not get easier for the Buffs as they have to go into Eugene to take on the also top-10 Oregon Ducks. Oregon attacks relentlessly and quickly as they grasp an early lead on CU and never look back. The Ducks are a bad matchup for the Buffs who try and find success with many different defensive looks, but to no avail. CU does, however, get more than the 2 points they got last year en route to another battering loss. Oregon 41 CU 17.

Stanford, 11/3

Michael: This is the test game for a young team.  They were bound to lose some games, and lose some games badly.  But how do they respond?  Coming home, is there a lingering effect that prevents them from competing with a good, but not great Stanford team?  Absolutely!  Young teams always have to figure out how to win.  Once they do that, they have to figure out how to win against good teams.  Maybe in 2013: Stanford 31, CU 17.

Matt: Despite coming back home to the friendly Folsom Field the Buffs will face a very strong Stanford team. Even though Andrew Luck is in Indianapolis putting up big numbers, there is not much of a reprieve for CU. Stanford’s discipline and strong rushing attack on offense and very good front seven on defense stymy the Buffaloes who struggle to get started. CU will fall behind early and have a hard time coming back. 2nd half will be played fairly evenly, but Stanford will have a big enough cushion to come away with a victory. Stanford 33 CU 20.

At Arizona, 11/10

Michael: This is the game where CU earns its lumps.  Young teams have to figure out how to win.  They’ve figured out how to win a game or two on the road already.  I believe this is the one where the senior LBs step up and say the defense will give the offense a chance to win.  I don’t believe this will be a pretty win, but a win is a win is a win.  This is the game they finally get that 6th win: CU 17, Zona 13.

Matt: This late in the season Arizona should have figured out the kinks in the Rich Rod offense, while CU, reeling from three straight blowouts, are looking to get back in the win column. Zona starts fast with a couple of big first quarter plays and get out to an early lead which causes CU to meander from their game plan. Sloppy CU play coupled with an irate coach ends poorly for CU who ends up falling to lowly Zona in as humbling of a loss as you can get. Zona 35 CU 21.

Washington, 11/17

Michael: I believe this Washington team will ultimately prove superior to Stanford, but I believe that the young Buffs give UW a lot better game.  Price’s health could be a concern; it always is in November with dual threat QBs.  Sarkisian has the right mindset for a young head coach, so even if Price isn’t healthy, he’ll find a way to score enough points here: UW 27, CU 23.

Matt: UW will likely be a top 20 team when they make their visit to Boulder late in the season, and as we saw last year in a wild & exciting Holiday Bowl, the Huskies seem to play well at the end of the season. With Keith Price and co hitting on all cylinders early, the Buffs fall behind. The game turns into a shootout much like the 2011 Holiday Bowl except without the Heisman pedigree of RGIII. UW has too much offensive firepower and too good of a QB to drop this one despite a decent 2nd half by CU. UW 37 CU 28.

Utah, 11/23, 1pm, FX/Fox

Michael: I already predicted this one in my Utah predictions: CU 24, Utah 20.

Matt: The Buffs, sitting at 6-5, have had a roller coaster year up to this point. Starting 6-0 and accomplishing their Bowl eligibility goal early, only to see 5 straight losses mar the great early campaign. In to Boulder comes the Utah Utes with revenge on their minds after CU ended their hopes to take home a Pac-12 South title in their first year in the conference. Senior day in Boulder calls for an emotional atmosphere for the packed house in Folsom Field where CU and Utah as budding rivals. The game is hard fought and chippy early as signs of this budding rivalry start to show as players seem to dislike each other more and more with each whistle. Back and forth action ensues as the 4th quarter both teams enter tied. A late Utah lead turns into disaster as John White IV fumbles and gives CU excellent field position as they score to take a three point lead. Utah drives right back down the field, only to see their game tying FG hit the uprights and game end in heartbreak two seasons in a row. CU 33 Utah 30.

Final Analysis

Michael: I must have spent too much time talking with Matt this offseason, because I'm buying the Buffs to exceed all reasonable expectations as well.  I think the reason they are rated so low pre-season is the supposed lack of experience.  They played a lot of frosh and sophs last season.  They may not have STARTING experience, but they have a lot of game experience.

The Buffs have definitely recruited a lot better.  With a bowl game run in 2012 not out of the question, that should continue and parlay into making them a perennial top-half  team in the South.  They are really young for sure, but, again not entirely inexperienced.  So this year should give them the springboard to move forward into a more successful 2013 season, perhaps even as many as 9 wins, though, this early in the process, I'll go ahead and say 8.  Is that a bold enough, early enough prediction for you?

Matt: An emotional season, both up and down, is in store for the Buffs. They will accomplish things they have not done in a while (like be favored in a stinkin’ game!) and look great some games, while others will look like the Buffs may never emerge from the doldrums. If CU can make it out of this season 7-5 and en route to postseason play this season will be an overwhelming success and huge step in the future of this program. Coach Embree and his staff recruit with the best of them and will continue to see great talent enter Boulder from year to year, while the program as a whole continues to make strides forward. IF the Buffs can put together a strong campaign as I’ve outlined here, I truly believe they’re destined to be a Pac-12 title contender within 3 years. IF the Buffs fail to win 6 games and fail to earn a Bowl berth, the future of the CU football program will be in limbo, uncertain of if their next step will be forward or back. As the offseason grows shorter, I seem to grow more and more optimistic (and I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing, as the same thing happened to me last year only to witness a 3-10 season) and love the direction our program is headed. This will be a telling year for the Buffs, and I for one cannot wait!