30 Preseason National Title "Contenders" in 2012

Since ESPN got involved and tried to direct the agenda of sports, they have attempted to make college football ALL about the National Champion.  On any given year, realistically only 20 (maybe 30) teams enter the season with any legitimate chance at a title.  So college football must be about SO MUCH MORE than just the champ or the bowl structure.  It's about rivalries, student sections, dynamic coaches and players, historic matchups, etc.

However, given that this is the (manufactured by ESPN) world the nation lives in, here is my list of the 30 teams that have any chance to play for the title this season.  This list is obviously more expansive than it needs to be, since a lot of these teams have a SLIM chance at best.  However, I have listed the 30 teams that meet two criteria: 1) they would be in the Title discussion if they went 12-0 (or 11-1 in several cases) and 2) actually have ANY kind of chance at attaining that record (doesn't have to be a GREAT chance, but these are teams that could easily get to 10 wins, so if things go their way 12 isn't out of the question).

Some teams didn't make the list that would apparently make some (stupid) pollsters think twice, but teams like Louisville and Baylor, among others, really have NO chance to go undefeated.  They'll be LUCKY to win 10 games.  I've also made some notes where appropriate for this week's games.

Alabama (vs. Michigan: a loss doesn't eliminate them)
Arkansas
Boise State (at Michigan State: loss eliminates them)
BYU (1-0)
Cal
Clemson (vs. Auburn)
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech (at Virginia Tech)
Kansas State
LSU
Miami
Michigan (vs. Alabama: a loss SHOULD eliminate them but won't)
Michigan State (hosting Boise State)
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
South Carolina (1-0, just win in the SEC anyway you can)
Stanford
TCU
Texas
USC
Utah (1-0)
Virginia Tech (hosting Georgia Tech)
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Matt gave me his 30: he does not have Cal, Miami, or Nebraska.  In their place he has Auburn, Missouri, and Texas A&M.  It's pretty easy to get to 20, maybe 25.  The last few are always going to be debatable and "stretches."

Within three weeks, this list will shrink to 15 or less, I am guessing, so it doesn't really matter.  Some of these teams are playing each other this weekend, so we'll already start cutting this list down starting next week.  Once we cut the list a bit, I'll sort them out/"rank them," because obviously not all of these teams are the in the same category: some could survive one loss, some would have to go undefeated, and some are unlikely to go undefeated but are good enough to win 10 so COULD theoretically win 12.  South Carolina tried to fall off this list last night, but held on by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin.

BYU Victory, From A CU Buff Perspective

Here is Matt Robert's thoughts on the BYU performance last night.

Well first off, congratulations on your sound victory, and a nice way to kickoff the football season! 1-0 is never a bad thing…(Matt Millen commentary was a bad thing tho!)

It was interesting to me how the game started, it seemed as though you were nervous at home (dropped INT’s passes, etc) but I think it was because the players were over-amped, and even more because Wazzou was WAY overhyped. I heard people saying WSU should be favored, they’ll win easy blah blah blah. The first possession Wazu looked competent but I had complete confidence in your D seeing as how you weren’t rushing a whole lot and weren’t allowing anything down the field. And of course you got the INT and then the game was essentially over…I was really surprised at how bad Tuell looked. He has a good crop of WRs (has one of the best in the Pac-12 last year) and a pass-friendly offense, but man he looked horrible. A lot of the credit has to be given to your D and the coaching by Bronco to keep everything in front of them and use KVN as the pressure man (really like how he plays as well). Aside from your “personal foul” drive, Wazzu didn’t do much of much, and think that’s a great sign going into the Utah game in a couple weeks. Utah didn’t really impress (even tho they won 41-0) in their win…didn’t show me anything too exciting.

I was thoroughly impressed with your coaching staff, moreso than Riley even. That decision to go to hurry-up killed WSU, and exposed that they’re not talented at all on that side of the ball. If BYU kept their foot on the gas the whole game you prolly coulda put up 40+ but no need. What I like about Nelson is how hard he plays, but he might get himself killed if he keeps it up, wasn’t sure if that’s why yall were breaking in the Fr QB as well just in case Nelson separates his shoulder or something running the ball. Nelson’s not the greatest thrower, but the way he competes should keep you in any game…that’s a good sign.

I agree with you that you have some things to work on, but really no complaints. If I told you prior to the game that you’d only allow 6 points on D to Wazzou I don’t think you would’ve believed me…
One thing tho, is your secondary and LBs need to work on their hands! Tuell was trying to throw picks all night! Haha. OL I think did well enough, 4 yards per clip isn’t really that bad, and for the most part Nelson had plenty of time to throw/run/make decisions. I like your one RB, the fast guy…and liked when you ran the option to him, could be a deadly weapon if you continue to utilize it.

Overall, I think it was more of an indictment on how bad WSU was rather than how great you are—but again no complaints because you didn’t really look bad (other than the penalties which I don’t think were your fault…tried to warn you about Pac12 refs, they’re awful!) I think you should look to run the ball better and more consistently next week in prep for Utah.

BYU 30, Wazu 6, Initial Thoughts/Recap

BYU showed a lot of very good things tonight in the 30-6 win over Wazu.  There is also a bit of work to do if BYU is going to "maximize their potential" as Bronco would say.  But first, I wanted to offer some first impressions.

Offensive Line
The offensive line is slim.  I have never seen BYU's OL as skinny as it was.  Now, I didn't see improved play, necessarily, but they sure looked different from what BYU fans have become accustomed to.  We usually see some big, fat slow, but very strong, dudes.  Tonight, BYU showcased slim slow dudes that didn't seem to get much "push."
Front 7
The front 7 on D is as good as advertized.  Van Noy is just smart.  The way he flows around out there is amazing.  He knows where to be, he gets there in a hurry, and he makes sure no one forgets he was there.  The DL did exactly what they needed to do: keep Tuell moving around all night.  He was never comfortable back there (Leach didn't earn his paycheck tonight: Tuell shouldn't have seen a snap in the 4th quarter).  The DL didn't make many plays, but they dictated where the ball was going on many occasions.  The LBs sure made plenty of plays though, which is exactly the game plan against a team like Wazu.  They missed a few plays too, but, for the most part, they did phenomenal.
Defensive Backs
The DBs are better.  They are faster, they are physical, and...they still can't catch.  Sorensen looked good, particularly in the first half.  Jordan Johnson played the out route perfectly and picked it off: BYU fans haven't seen that since 1996, maybe?
WRs/TEs
There are a lot of guys that can catch the ball.  Friel was a nice target for Riley Nelson and Taysom Hill.  I suspected the TEs would get worked in a lot more early in the season.  Skyler Ridley showed some toughness (though I bet he'll be sore in the morning!).  Apo still doesn't quite know how to go get the ball, but he played solid.  I'm guessing Hoffman will be OK, I certainly expect to see him by the Utah game.  There were no drops, which was a big difference from the past two seasons.
Looking Ahead
Final first impression: Pac 12 refs are awful.  BYU fans will have to suffer through them two more times.  It was pathetic.  BYU had at least 80 yards in totally bogus penalties (which consequently gave Wazu their 6 points: without those, it's a shutout).  They also missed a few obviously holds and pass interferences (a few on BYU as well).

What were your first impressions?

"Final" Initial Thoughts
Let me preface this by saying, Wazu is not going to be a very good team.  There is a reason most people put them around 100 out of 124 FBS teams.  BYU did what it should have done: move the ball and prevent Wazu from moving it in bunches.
Defense
Now, with that said, BYU is a very good team.  That D frustrated some decent, experienced offensive players for Wazu.  Wazu essentially quit midway through the third.  To hold Mike Leach to 5 yards per ATTEMPT and 7.6 yards per completion is impressive.  In 10 rushing attempts, Wazu only gained 5 yards one time, netting 13 total yards in all.  The D looked a LITTLE undisciplined at times, but at least 4 of those penalties and 60 of those penalty yards were just awful officiating.  Still, I don't think BYU fans could have asked for any more tonight from the D.
Offense
The offense didn't really seal the deal in the red zone, but I think that was more on Doman than on the O.  The rushing attack wasn't great.  There weren't many holes, particularly on the right side.  That's OK, b/c the left side had some poor play in pass protection so there's room for improvement on both sides.  I would have liked to see Pritchard a bit more in the rushing attack, and Foote looked athletic.  I have no complaints about the WRs and TEs who did a solid job.  Nelson played well, with really only two bad plays all night, which is great for a man with his skillset and mindset in the opener.  The O should probably have scored 40+ tonight, but again, I don't think Doman did a great job in the red zone: he got too cute yet predictable.  First down was a run.  Second down was a pass.  Third down was a QB rollout with "flood" patterns to give Riley the option to throw or run.  And the option wasn't working all night, why would it work in the red zone?  Alright, enough, Doman will get it together for Weber State...
Special Teams
Special teams wasn't awful.  They had four kickoffs that were covered well.  Two of them weren't covered well at all, though one was called back on a hold.  Riley did a decent job punting.  Both times.  He had one punt that was a bit low without much hang-time, which ended up getting returned 17 yards.  He did miss one chip shot field goal, but hey, he's a punter: 3-4 on FGs isn't bad.  He should have been 1-1 on FGs and 6-6 on XPs.
Grades
With as average as some of the aspects of BYU's game were, they still beat a BCS opponent by 24 points on ESPN.  I'll have to go back and watch it again to give more well-thought out grades out, but initially, I'd give the following.
QBs: A- Could have been better at times, particularly with "scrambling," but completing over 70% and throwing for 300+ yards combined is great.  I'll take that all season long.
RBs: B+ Very few broken tackles or yards after contact.  They seemed to cut back inside too much on plays called outside and cut outside too much on plays called inside.  I expect (and suspect we'll see) more from this unit in the future.
WRs/TEs: A Would have liked to see more from the group in the open field, perhaps, but can't remember anything specific to downgrade them.  They responded very well after Hoffman went out.  It looks like BYU found a fourth WR, but don't ask me who the 5th is!  That's still a thin position for me.
OL: B- I'm not sure anyone can argue the point that this was the worst unit on the field for BYU tonight.  With that said, they allowed only 2 sacks in 39 passing plays (well, probably more like 41 or 42, but I don't recall how many times Riley scrambled on called pass plays).
DL: B+ I know I just got done singing their praises; making Tuell move around a lot was big.  However, they had opportunities to get him down on the ground though and whiffed, with a couple of completions resulting.  They need to finish plays better.
LBs: A- They didn't do as well as I expected in the open-field, perhaps a product of not tackling in camp.  However, everywhere else they were phenomenal.  Ogletree looked a bit out of sorts.
DBs: A- Wazu put a lot of pressure on them and they came through in fine fashion.  They covered well.  They tackled well.  They moved well.  A couple of dropped INTs from the group could have been costly for momentum.  They kept most everything in front of them and let the LBs make plays.
Riley Stephenson: B+ The low punt and the missed field goal are really the only reason to downgrade him.  He did make a nice tackle on a kickoff, but then whiffed another one.  Those things didn't impact his grade, but I thought I'd mention them anyway...haha

What Are The Odds That BYU Goes 12-0 in 2012?

I thoroughly enjoy the web site collegefootballpoll.com, when I have a few minutes to waste, which I haven't had in a while.  However, due to the excitement of being 24 hours away from kickoff, I have neglected my homework and spent a few minutes perusing it tonight.

First off, the web site does a comprehensive list of all FBS schools and ranks them based on a lot of "stuff" from top to bottom.  I believe they do that every week throughout the season as well.  BYU comes in preseason at #24, so somewhat higher than the human polls regard them.  One important note here is that every team on BYU's schedule comes in lower than that in the preseason.  Notre Dame is #25, Utah #26, Boise State #31, and Georgia Tech #38.  Utah State is the next highest at #79 and Oregon State is #86.  Everyone else is 100 or worse.  According to that, BYU is, in theory, better than all 12 of its opponents.

I can theoretically get on board with that.  Utah has some question marks on the back 7 of its defense, particularly with Blechen suspended for three games, which includes BYU.  Boise State lost a lot of offensive firepower AND I believe 6 of their 8 DL graduated, plus their best player at LB and DB.  Notre Dame is playing walk-on WRs in the secondary and still isn't really settled at the QB position since the projected starter is suspended for the opener.  Plus they are suspending other starters left and right for team violations.  Georgia Tech: well, I think the Cougars are better at a lot of positions than the Bumblebees.

Secondly, the web site projects where teams will finish the season "ranked."  BYU finishes #20.  This final season projection puts them behind Utah, which it has at #13 and projected 11-1 (loss to USC), but ahead of everyone else, and significantly so.  Boise State is #35 (9-3), Georgia Tech is #42 (8-4), and Notre Dame is #47 (7-5).  Utah State jumps to #54 (8-4), San Jose State to #67 (7-5), and everybody else is 88 or lower and not bowl eligible.

On a side note, it also projects each conference's relative strength.  The MWC, which was once positioned as perhaps the 6th best conference in America, making a serious push for 5th, dropped below the Sun Belt coming in at second-to-last, ahead of only the dying WAC.  The MWC is also losing some of its best members next year, so it stands to reason that perpetually going forward the MWC will be the worst conference in America...not to pile on: but the MWC absolutely killed itself by its own stupidity.  If you don't know what I'm talking about and care to find out, I'd be happy to tell you all about, so shoot me a line!

Third, the web site goes through and projects every college football team's schedule, including projecting what the margin of victory should be, based on its computer simulations and projecting the outcome as such.  BYU is a 18-point favorite or more in 8 games.  It is a single-digit loser against Utah (1.52 points) and Notre Dame (2.64).  It is a single-digit winner against Boise State (0.22) and Georgia Tech (2.61).  It will adjust its projections as the season goes along and more data is entered, which seems fair enough to me.  It is impossible to take all things into account when making preseason projections.

Given that the site is very similar to mine, I'm going to go ahead and defend it!  BYU gets blowout wins almost across the board, with close losses to Utah and ND and a close win at Boise.  The only major difference is Georgia Tech.  I believe BYU is better, but college football is still a mental game and that's where I believe BYU loses the game.

So, the site has BYU going 10-2.  Hope is restored!  Well, except that last year they projected BYU to go 11-1 when they went 9-3.  The year prior: they had 10-2 compared to the actual 6-6 record.  In addition, the site has a National Championship Game prediction of Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, so clearly computers don't recognize everything.  The last time the site UNDER-estimated BYU's record was back in 2006, so the odds are either 1) not in BYU's favor to go 11-1 or 12-0 or 2) that BYU is due to beat/exceed the site's projections/expectations.

Either way, no matter who your team is, this is a fun site if you have some time to play around (after you're done reading my blog, of course!).  Looking at this, if the ball bounces their way, it's certainly not out of the question that BYU goes 12-0.  But when has the ball bounced BYU's way for 12 games?  In answer to the question I posed in the title: the odds aren't great, but it's not a statistical impossibility either.

2012 Predictions Recap

So here's how Matt and I compare with the four teams we predicted: Utah, CU, ND, and BYU.

Utah
Record
Matt 8-4
Michael 9-3
Conference Record
Matt 6-3
Michael 6-3
Offensive Points Per Game
Matt 28.1
Michael 26.5
Defensive Points Per Game
Matt 20.5
Michael 19.3

Colorado
Record
Matt 7-5
Michael 7-5
Conference Record
Matt 4-5
Michael 4-5
Offensive Points Per Game
Matt 26.8
Michael 23.6
Defensive Points Per Game
Matt 28.8
Michael 22.8

Notre Dame
Record
Matt 8-4
Michael 9-3
Offensive Points Per Game
Matt 28.3
Michael 28.5
Defensive Points Per Game
Matt 26.6
Michael 23.3

BYU
Record
Matt 9-3
Michael 9-3
Offensive Points Per Game
Matt 30.0
Michael 31.6
Defensive Points Per Game
Matt 19.9
Michael 19.8

I guess we've spent too much time talking to each other about college football, as our expectations are pretty close to identical for each of these four teams.  How about you all?  Thoughts?  Predictions?  Come on, take a stab!

BYU 2012 FB Predictions

Michael: This is Riley Nelson’s (aka Tiny Tim) senior year, with one of the best defenses BYU has had in a while (2006), an experienced offensive line, three quality WRs, and a couple of RBs with high expectations placed on them.  The schedule is simple enough: four tough road games.  Everything else is either easy or at home.

Expectations should be through the roof for BYU this year as this is their opportunity.  With no significant challenge from any other non-BCS school to "steal" a BCS bid, even 11-1 would probably be enough to get them an at-large berth to a BCS game.  There are essentially 8 automatic bids these days: 6 auto-bids to conference champs, a second to an SEC team, and the loser of the Pac 12 Title game probably gets one, assuming it's Oregon or USC at 11-2.  That means 11-1 BYU would be fighting with second-place Big Ten and second-place Big XII for the 9th and 10th spots.

With ESPN’s power within the current BCS and their unique relationship with BYU (and, therefore, interest in BYU succeeding on a national level), it stands reasonable to assume that 11-1 could secure them a seat over a 10-2 or 10-3 Big XII/Ten team.  Any great team would go 12-0 or 11-1 with BYU’s schedule.  A good team goes 10-2.  A reasonably good team wins 9.  Can they rise up?

There are some question marks, in general, at TE and RB on offense and I have my own personal questions with the depth at OL, WR, LB, and CB.  BYU has had a lot of young, supposedly talented RBs before that never panned out.  Michael Alisa is good, no doubt, but he can’t carry the ball 20 times a game for 12 games.  One of those many guys with "potential" behind him has to produce: there is no PROVEN guy there right now.

Several of the TEs have been injured, but that just means a lot of them have gotten reps in practice, so at least one of them has to stay healthy and makes plays.  There is little to no game-experience behind Hoffman, Apo, and Falslev at WR.  That doesn’t mean the other WRs aren’t capable, just that they have only proved it IN PRACTICE, against BYU DBs.

A successful OL has to go 7-8 deep to make it through a season.  BYU is probably right around 8 guys right now, but with Michael Yeck listed as a back-up on the two-deep, there clearly isn’t depth across the board.  Improvement is one thing, but did he magically get more coordinated in the past 10 months?  I highly doubt it.

At LB there is certainly an amazing amount of quality in the starting ranks.  But Kyle Van Noy and Brandon Ogletree have had some injuries.  KVN’s backup got injured about a week ago.  Zac Stout, a backup MLB, is coming off a season missed due to injury as well, and his health is already questionable (I heard he is now out indefinitely with an Achilles injury).  Is there enough depth there?  They’ll need 6 guys anyway, which seems like about all they have.  If one guy goes down, they can recover, but if they lose two guys, that unit could go from “best ever” to “biggest disappointment ever.”

DB is always an interesting position at BYU.  But I trust the four safeties in the two-deep.  The corners are just always a wild-card.  Even the "good" ones BYU gets aren’t that good.  They seem to tackle well, but they never cover well and their reaction to the ball in the air is worse than a Utah high school freshman B team.

Matt: BYU has established themselves in the annals of NCAA football history as a pretty decent team, and I personally like the way they’re set up going forward. Due to them being unaffiliated with any conference it allows them freedom to schedule on their own (which has its pro’s and con’s) and more importantly their own TV deal with ESPN to allow many games to be broadcast nationally. I think this setup is good for BYU because they will play high profile games such as @ Boise and @ ND, games that will be shown nationally and really pose no downside for BYU. No downside because barring disaster, BYU will make a bowl game and be playing in the postseason. If they win these tough road games they’re looking at potentially one of the “higher” bowls, perhaps even a BCS bid under the most miraculous of circumstances.
This year I look for a very good BYU defense to be coupled with an efficient running attack to control the ball and clock en route to wins. The schedule has its difficult stretches (i.e. @ Boise the Thurs following Utah) as well as its easy stretches (the last three games), which should keep BYU fans on their toes. BYU could realistically win anywhere from 7 games (a terrible year) to 11 games (a great year), and that volatility surrounding the team should keep people tuning in to the Cougs this season.

Game-By-Game

Washington State, 8/30, 8:15pm (Mountain), ESPN

Michael: This is the one that sets the tone.  We will see BYU’s usual weakness (the secondary) vs. Washington State’s strength (the passing game).  I will say the advantage BYU has here is the OLBs.  They are vicious and Mike Leach typically relies heavily on quick passes and screens.  I suspect 1.5 quarters of that will have the WRs asking coach to call something else.  At that point: can BYU get a pass rush for the deeper drops/longer passes?  The defense will probably give up 2-4 big plays, as a result of limiting live tackling in fall camp.  It happens.  There is nothing Bronco can do about it: players have to tackle in live situations if they are going to repeat that in games.

The other factor is the Wazu defense, which is bad anyway, but add in a coach who doesn’t even care about the D, and it might be historically bad.  Can BYU dominate time of possession and force Wazu’s O to rush and try to score quickly?  I believe that will be BYU’s game plan.  If Doman can hack it, I believe it will certainly work out in the BYU Cougars favor.  Alisa for 100+, Nelson adds another 50 on the ground, and an unnamed RB steps up to contribute 6 yards/carry with 5+ carries.  BYU typically struggles against BCS opponents in the ground game, but I don’t think that happens here against Leach and the Washington State Cougars: BYU 37, Wazu 28.

Matt: Pretty tough opener for BYU in that Wazzou gives you a big case of the unknown. Well, we know they’ll pass, but what we don’t know is if they’re going to be any good. I personally feel like Wazzou is getting WAY too much this hype this offseason because they’ve got a competent QB (Tuell) and a very good WR (Wilson) and their coach likes to throw…a lot. Well, that fails to mention the terrible defense and poor OL play.
BYU will establish their run game and their good D will keep them ahead of Wazzou for the majority of the game. BYU 31 Wazzou 23

Weber State, 9/8, 1pm, BYUTV
Michael: A nice tune-up a week ahead of Utah.  Nice paycheck for Weber: BYU 44, Weber 13.

Matt: BYU doesn’t have to break much of a sweat here. BYU 34 Weber 6

At Utah, 9/15, 8pm, ESPN2

Michael: There isn’t much room to argue that BYU should win this game.  BYU lost at home by 44 points.  The wheels came off, which probably doesn't happen again.  But still, BYU now travels north, away from home, to face a Utah team, which is better than the 2011 version that won the game by 44.  I believe it would take some miraculous play by BYU to win.  I’m not saying they can’t win.  I’m just saying I don’t think they will.  I think they’ll look back at this game and realize this was one that cost them a great season.  Instead, they’ll have to settle for a good season.  This is the last game for anyone on this Utes team against BYU at Rice-Eccles, since BYU doesn’t return until 2016, and that gives the Utes the added motivation they need to win a defensive battle: Utah 16, BYU 13.

Matt: See Utah prediction for explanation. BYU 24 Utah 22

At Boise State, 9/20, 7pm, ESPN

Michael: I have long thought this was a winnable game for BYU, in spite of playing it just 5 days after the rivalry game.  Boise State, no doubt, is tough to prepare for, especially on such short notice.  Their home dominance has been well-documented: it’s something like 64-3 over the past decade.  The loss to Utah will either strengthen BYU and help them play like world-beaters or the seniors will allow the team to wilt, feeling their last chance at a BCS game has passed them by.  I think they do rally, and win this game on sheer determination, and inexperience on Boise State’s side: BYU 27, Boise State 23.

Matt: Tough break here for BYU as they have to play on short rest and travel to Boise rest after a relentless, emotional win against Utah. Boise has one of the best coaches in the nation and one of the best home field advantages to boot. By no means will this be a blowout. I think BYU starts strong but fades at the end, too many intangibles going against them. Boise 31 BYU 23

Hawaii, 9/28, 6pm, ESPN

Michael: Initially I thought this was going to be a somewhat difficult contest.  After a thorough review of Hawaii (which I never actually got around to posting), I downgraded the difficulty of this game, feeling this will be an easier W for BYU than the game at SJSU will be later.  Talent level is low at Hawaii right now, lower than I ever remember it being.  There is almost certainly some pressure on Norm Chow (not external pressure, but pressure he puts on himself), who FINALLY gets a shot at a head-coaching gig.  I am sure he’s learned a lot in his years in the profession, but he’s never had to learn them from the head coach’s seat.  There’s a lot of storylines going into the game, but the one coming out: BYU 38, Hawaii 24.

Matt: New coach for Hawaii and a long travel to the mainland. BYU’s D should make life plenty difficult for Hawaii who will struggle to stop BYU on offense—bad  combo for the artists formerly known as the Rainbow Warriors. BYU 33 Hawaii 20

Utah State, 10/5, 8:15pm, ESPN
Michael: Last year's Utah State was the game that turned BYU’s program around, really.  Without the poor play and miraculous comeback, BYU meddles to a 6-6 record under Jake Heaps, and would be heading in to an uncertain 2012.  A poor 2012 after an unspectacular 2011 would have diminished the value of BYU considerably as we approach the Playoff Era.  That impacts recruiting, sponsorship, fan interest, and scheduling.  Those four things are vital to BYU’s future success as an independent.
However, Nelson comes in, wins the game, and leads BYU to a 10-win season.  Heaps transfers and Nelson becomes a poor man’s/BYU’s version of Tim Tebow: a lefty who plays with grit, determination, and leadership to make up for an inferior arm and questionable decision-making.  You can bet Utah State remembers too.  I just don’t know where the Aggies O will be this season though.  A dual-threat QB can only be a threat if there are reliable RBs and WRs.  Utah State is reasonably talented at those skill positions, but also quite thin.  They should have established some leadership at this point of the season, but that may not be enough to win in Provo against a BYU team that is finally starting to believe in themselves after a 4-1 start.  Plus, Tiny Tim wants to go out on a high note against his former team, which “dishonored” his father and family name while on his mission.  At least the Aggies got an invite to join a conference next year, unlike other WAC teams: BYU 34, Utah State 16.

Matt: USU gave BYU their best shot last year, and now they’re without their NFL caliber RB. Despite USU’s best effort in the first half, I see BYU pulling away with their running attack. Nelson plays his best game of the season en route to a huge Cougars 2^nd half. BYU 41 USU 17

Oregon State, 10/13, TBA, TBA

Michael: Oregon State is one of those teams that should win 6 or 7 games every year.  Most years they end up hitting 8 or 9 somehow.  Last year, however, it caught up to them and they only managed 3.  They figure to be better.  The Beavers figure to be around 3-2 coming in, possibly still trying to establish themselves and figure out an identity.  I applaud the Beavers for their scheduling: Wisconsin and at BYU in the non-conference.  BYU needs to run the ball against Oregon State, and focus on that like they should against Washington State.  That will be there recipe for success.  They failed to run well against them in the Vegas Bowl a few years back, with Harvey Unga averaging just 3 yards/carry.  They made up for it in a big way last season, rushing for 282 yards.  I suspect BYU breaks the 150-yard mark this game, which would be enough.  If they reach 200, it should be a blowout: BYU 31, Oregon State 21.

Matt: This one is a tough one for me to call because you never know what to make of these pesky Beavers. The fact that this BYU team traveled to Corvallis last year and took care of business, I feel they can replicate that in Provo, but it will be close. BYU 28 OSU 27

At Notre Dame, 10/20, 1:30pm, NBC

Michael: I am definitely excited to see how this game plays out.  If things were to play out as I predicted for both teams, BYU would be 6-1 coming in, ND would be 5-1.  Both would be in the top 25, on account of having good records and each with a win against a ranked opponent, BYU’s win coming on the road, but ND beating a better opponent.  I think the Irish are vulnerable, but I also think they have such great athleticism that it would take a very clean game from the Cougars to win.  BYU hasn’t had anything resembling a clean game against anything resembling a quality opponent since (probably) that Vegas Bowl game in 2009 against Oregon State.  This BYU team certainly could beat this Notre Dame team.  The problem is: where BYU wins the individual battles, the Irish can make up for it with a great play from Manti Te'o.  BYU won’t be able to continually sustain long drives against the Irish D.  The Irish O will end up in the same boat.  So it comes down to the kicking game, the turnover battles, and the big plays.  BYU loses two of those three and the game: Notre Dame 20, BYU 17.

Matt: This game to me is what will determine JUST how good this BYU team is. A win for the Cougars and they will have confidence in knowing they can win any of their games on their schedule. A loss could make for a nationally forgotten season for BYU. Both ND and BYU have high expectations, high ceilings assuredly, and no conference affiliation. The talent of ND and well, being at home, drives ND to victory. ND 31 BYU 22

At Georgia Tech, 10/27, TBA, TBA

Michael: The triple option of Paul Johnson can be extremely difficult to defend.  Here is the true test of the BYU seniors, because a loss at ND puts a BCS game entire out of reach at 6-2.  Do they rally, knowing that this is the last true test of their mettle in their collegiate careers?  I think they probably do on an individual level.  However, this game will be about preparation, execution, and playing within your assignment, not playing on emotion.  As mature as BYU typically is, I think they could lose some of that team concept and everybody goes out trying to make a play, and the Bumblebees take advantage: Georgia Tech 31, BYU 20.

Matt: Very difficult follow up for BYU after going to ND as Georgia is a long way from home. GT is a triple option team that will give most teams fits, but BYU should be very good at stopping the run. Offense will be difficult to come by at first for both teams as the pace will start slow and time of possession will be at a premium. From a fans perspective, I anticipate this will be one of the best of the year in terms of entertainment value. GT 27 BYU 26…failed for 2 point conversion in OT

Idaho, 11/10, TBA, TBA

Michael: With a bye week to clear their heads and a light opponent on the schedule, BYU returns to form on Senior Day.  I think this is the highest point total for BYU on the season: BYU 49, Idaho 13.

Matt: I agree with Michael here, no reason BYU shouldn't take full advantage of a lesser opponent after their tough road: BYU 36, Idaho 10.

At SJSU, 11/17, 2pm, TBA
Michael: This game isn’t as easy as I originally thought.  After reflection on last season’s game, BYU was actually lucky to win.  SJSU has developed some quality in the trenches for the first time in 30+ years.  They also happen to have some very talented skill position players, perhaps more talented than they have ever had in the program.  They lack any kind of depth, however, and, even with an easy schedule, there are just enough tough opponents to put some doubt that their five stars will be available for this game.  Without all five, they can’t beat BYU: BYU 28, SJSU 17.

Matt: Bloppy game but BYU shouldn't have too much trouble staying ahead on the scoreboard.  BYU 29 SJSU 16

At NMSU, 11/24, 1:30pm, TBA
Michael: BYU goes out in style.  The Boise State game gave BYU fans hope that they could pull off the improbable march to 11-1, but Bronco’s 9-10 win total remains consistent, even with this team that seemed so capable early in the year.  Anyway, New Mexico State may have already fired their coach, and if they haven’t, he’s probably scrambling to try to save his job.  There is not enough talent, coaching, or security for NMSU to reign: BYU 41, NMSU 16.

Matt: NMSU is not good, plain and simple.  BYU 33 NMSU 9

Final Analysis

Michael: I see this team as very similar to the 2009 team, which didn’t exactly underperform, but certainly failed in a couple of games to play up to what should have been their potential.  After beating Oklahoma, in Dallas, they got killed at home by Florida State and TCU.  While this year’s team will not lose any games that badly, they probably add an extra loss compared to the 2009 squad.  I always try to project when BYU’s offense and defense will come together to put a truly great team on the field.  I was right on 2006.  I was the TCU game away from being right in 2009.  This was the next year I targeted (apparently Bronco operates on a 3-year plan).  So as a true Cubs and BYU fan, I expect the team to underperform against my expectations.

I do believe once they hit the magical 2-loss mark that they will struggle as a team the following game.  If that comes after Boise State, perhaps they can still win at ND and Georgia Tech.  If ND is the second loss, I think the Georgia Tech game will also be an L.

This season will be good enough, and the TV schedule is set up well enough, to keep people interested, but that doesn’t mean “relevant.”  Next year figures to be a rebuilding year.  Plus it has a very difficult schedule from start to finish.  So this is BYU’s chance to become relevant on a national scale.  They have the talent, they have the experience, they have the coaching.  Unfortunately, they just have too many tough road games to expect the 11 wins necessary to do that.   BYU will continue playing on Friday nights in primetime and Thursday nights post-primetime until they can prove they belong on Saturday night in primetime.  Another 9/10-win season will not get that done.

Matt: Decent season for BYU, but not a special season. No reason to complain as they are continuing to adapt in their role as an independent, and as they get to go to another bowl game (that they should win). I truly believe they’re a year or two away from being a consistent top 20 team every year, but for now, they get what they signed up for. When they decided to go independent BYU had to figure this would be their fate, lots of 7-10 win seasons and top 25 finishes, but very little national splash otherwise.

What Constitutes A Successful Season? BYU 2012

All offseason, BYU fans have read about BYU having successful seasons behind a senior QB.  When Max Hall was a senior, we heard the same thing.  While the team went 11-2 and finished ranked in the top 20, there were a lot of people that would say that was not a successful season, including me.  Quite frankly, a team that went into Big 12 territory and beat a potentially top-flight Oklahoma team (Bradford got hurt and the team struggled with a freshman QB to an 8-5 record, but with a healthy Bradford, you can bet that's a 10-win OU team), shouldn't get blown out at home.  Twice.

So now, here is Riley Nelson, leading the BYU charge this year.  All BYU beat-writing experts have proclaimed BYU will thus have a successful season.  But, as is the case with the 11-2 Max Hall senior year, it is important to define what a successful season is.  If I knew BYU was going to be 11-2 heading into Max Hall's senior year, I probably would have said it was a successful season, with close losses to Oklahoma and Florida State and an MWC title the likely scenario there.  However, with a win over Oklahoma and a senior-laden team, one had to have higher expectations than the blowouts at home against FSU and TCU.  The scale changes with the Oklahoma win.

In some ways, the 2012 schedule is not very forgiving to BYU.  Playing at Boise State 5 days after playing at Utah is tough.  BYU also faces road tests in back-to-back weeks at Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  Those are all tough teams and tough venues.  But none of those teams are unbeatable and none of those fortresses impregnable (though one could argue that Boise State is as close to it as possible).  In other ways, the 2012 schedule is perfectly set up.  There is not another of the 8 teams on the schedule that can be definitively described as being in the top half of college football right now.  Six of those other eight games are at home as well.

Riley Nelson is a senior with significant experience and expectations are high.  This much is true.  So what makes a successful season for the senior QB and his team?  10 wins?  11 wins?  Or is 9 enough, given the difficulty of the 4 toughest games?  For me, I've quietly held high expectations for this team.  The past few days and weeks, the team itself has expressed its own high expectations.  I personally believe that a successful season for BYU in 2012 means at least 10 wins.  If BYU is really a top 35 team, they absolutely should win their 8 games against inferior competition.  If I am to call the season a success, I believe that means, at the very least, a 2-2 record in the big four.

As with the Max Hall team winning in Dallas against Oklahoma: does a win at Utah up the stakes a bit?  At that point, is 10-2 still good enough?  My answer is no (especially considering I think that's a game BYU probably loses, so if they win, I up my expectations for the team considerably).  If BYU manages a win at Utah, then they are better than just a top 35 team.  They are then a top 20 team because of the MENTAL fortitude and physical ability it would require to record that win.  A top 20 team should be able to go 2-1 in games against a rebuilding Boise State, a struggling Notre Dame, and a run-heavy Georgia Tech.

A successful season is 10-2 or better.  If BYU wins at Utah, 11-1 becomes the new minimum standard for this year's team to be deemed "successful" (in my opinion).  Success isn't winning the games you are supposed to and losing most or all of the 50-50 games: if they're 50-50 games, you have to win at least 50% to be successful!  Riley and company had better win 10 games.  I'll let you know September 15th if that number needs to go up.  If that number has to go down at all, I think it's safe to say that the season was not a success.

With that said, my predictions for how BYU does are coming.  Tuesday...I know, you are all waiting in eager anticipation.

Notre Dame 2012 FB Predictions

Third up on our list of teams to make predictions for: Notre Dame.  Normally, my blogging tends to ignore ND, but since I go to school here now, I suppose I ought to throw them a bone.  I have followed the Irish over the years, especially since ABC seems to be slacking in that mid-afternoon timeslot the past few years, so I have turned to NBC off and on.  I picked up my tickets on Monday, so football season is definitely upon us.  Matt decided to just provide scores this time around.

This is one of the most experienced and talented teams at ND in a while.  The biggest and most high-profile question is at QB, where Brian Kelly is holding his cards close.  He has an experienced QB that he just doesn’t like/trust, who also happens to be suspended for the opener.  Will he be the guy after missing the opener?  Or will one of the talented “underlings” get the nod against Navy and hold on to the job the rest of the season?  Who knows?  Who cares?  Well, a lot of people, in spite of what Rick Reilly thinks.  Matt, clearly, does not!

On a side note, ND is razor thin at CB, which could impact them in several games, but it's a run-heavy schedule this season, particularly early in the year.

Vs. Navy (Dublin, Ireland), 9/1, 9am (Eastern), CBS

Michael: This is a cool thing these two institutions are doing.  Navy has been more competitive in this series of late, but it’s hard to imagine this game being close with the way I expect ND’s D to play this year.  First game jitters are first game jitters though, and that could favor Navy.  Kelly and whatever QB he names win: ND 38, Navy 17.

Matt: ND 31, Navy 20

Purdue, 9/8, 3:30, NBC

Michael: This is a very experienced Purdue team, literally across the board at about every position, two-deep, guys in the program 3 years or longer.  The Boilermakers should be strong running up the middle this year, but that would seem to be one of ND’s strengths on D as well.  ND won at Purdue last season 38-10, I suspect it’ll play closer this year, but not by much: Notre Dame 31, Purdue 20.

Matt: ND 34, Purdue 17

At Michigan State, 9/15, 8pm, ABC

Michael: There are a lot of people quite high on Michigan State.  Quite frankly, I think they are certainly good but have been overrated for some time.  They have been beating up on all the Big Ten rummies, but really haven't beat anyone really good in a meaningful game, and they certainly haven't won many BIG games on the road (last road win against a ranked opponent was 2010 against a Michigan team that FINISHED 7-6 and fired their coach: did win at Ohio State last season, which is good, except that Ohio State was 6-7).  This is a game that, if ND aspires to be a national power again, the Irish just simply need to win.  This is the game that decides how good/average that ND will be in 2012: Michigan State 24, Notre Dame 17.

Matt: Michigan State 27, ND 24

Michigan, 9/22, 7:30pm, NBC

Michael: A rare night game at Notre Dame, which typically occupies the 3:30pm timeslot.  Michigan, like Sparty, comes into the season very highly regarded, perhaps too much so.  The Irish will only have a shot in this one if they have their QB “house” in order.  I suspect this will be a fun game and I can’t wait to attend!  I think the Irish can exploit Michigan’s front 7, if they play it smart and I suspect TE Tyler Eifert could have a big game here: Notre Dame 31, Michigan 28.

Matt: ND 35, Michigan 24

Vs. Miami, FL (Soldier Field, Chicago), 10/6, 7:30pm, NBC

Michael: Just after saying how rare a night NBC game is, here comes another.  I’ve never really been that impressed with Al Golden.  Yes, he inherited a mess at Temple, but he barely took them to a .500 team in the MAC.  Scandals abound still at Miami.  The talent disparity is actually in Notre Dame’s favor somewhat substantially: Notre Dame 27, Miami 17.

Matt: ND 29, Miami 20

Stanford, 10/13, 3:30pm, NBC

Michael: I’m not sure Stanford will hang for the long-term.  ND held them somewhat in check last season at Stanford.  This is an even more experienced Stanford team, albeit a reasonably less-talented one.  Still, this is another one of those games ND has to win to return to prominence.  I believe they do: Notre Dame 24, Stanford 20.

Matt: Stanford 40, ND 31

BYU, 10/20, 3:30pm, NBC

Michael: Another game I’ll be excited to attend!  My brother will be here as well.  This is kind of the forgotten game in the October schedule for ND fans.  I overheard one guy on the bus talking about the schedule: Miami is athletic, Stanford’s been playing us tough for a decade, we’ll beat BYU, and then Oklahoma will be tough.  I’ll hold on making a prediction for now, but I will say, I hope the team takes the same approach as that fan!

Matt: ND 27, BYU 26

At Oklahoma, 10/27

Michael: Oklahoma should be very good.  ND can’t hang right now with a LEGITIMATE top 10 team (i.e. not the Michigan teams).  Look for Landry Jones to get 400 yards maybe?  Well, I guess it depends on when Stoops calls off the dogs: Oklahoma 38, ND 17.

Matt: OU 44, ND 20

Pittsburgh, 11/3, 3:30pm, NBC

Michael: With the loss at OU, Notre Dame fans will officially get off the bandwagon.  Oh well, I guess that means I can find better seats for the games, right?  Pitt stinks on defense and the Irish rebound: Notre Dame 41, Pitt 31.

Matt:  ND 26, Pitt 16

At Boston College, 11/10

Michael: BC stinks on both sides of the ball.  The Echoes cheer again: Notre Dame 38, Boston College 20.

Matt: ND 31, BC 28

Wake Forest, 11/17, 3:30pm, NBC

Michael: I have to say that besides Michigan and BYU, I’m fairly disappointed in the home schedule this season for the Irish.  2013 is better, in my opinion: Temple, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, USC, Navy, and BYU.   Oh, Wake Forest prediction: Notre Dame 41, Wake Forest 17.

Matt: ND 30, Wake 13

At USC, 11/24, ABC/ESPN

Michael: I guess everything I said about Oklahoma applies here too.  I really believe ND is on a big roll going into this game and it will get A LOT of (undeserved) hype, but it’s all for naught: USC 31, ND 17.

Matt: USC 44, ND 21

Final Analysis:

Michael: 8/9 wins is another solid but unspectacular year for ND.  However, consider how completely up in the air the QB situation is less than two weeks before the first game, 8/9 wins is great.  Things are building up for a tremendous 2013 season though.  The 2012 team is still a young, yet experienced group.  However, the brutal road schedule will be a bit much for them.  Look for the Irish to compete for a spot in the top 10 in 2013.  They could return as many as 7 offensive starters, including a QB, and on defense Manti Te’o is a big loss at MLB, but only a handful of others in the two-deep will depart.

Matt: Based on Matt’s predictions, ND goes 8-4.

CU 2012 FB Predictions

Michael: Colorado has been in a bit of a downward spiral over the last 10-15 years.  They finally have a coach that seems to understand what CU football has been about historically and is bent on trying to return CU to where it was in the 80’s and 90’s.  With that said, he doesn’t have much in the way of talent, depth, or experience on the roster.

This is Year Two, a crucial year for any new head coach: he either wins over the players to “doing it his way” or he loses them and may never get them back.  The schedule lightens up a little bit early in the season, so that should help the Buffs build some confidence early in the year.  It’s not out of the realm of possibilities for CU to 5-1, possibly even 6-0.  Then the schedule gets “interesting” (slash impossible).

I do believe CU has a chance to surprise some people that picked them last in the South.  I’d be shocked, honestly, if they finished 5 or 6 in a very top-heavy South.  With three schools (UCLA, ASU, and Arizona) hiring new head coaches this off-season, CU has a little more continuity working in their favor.  Plus I believe they are similar talent-wise to Arizona and ASU right now, so the coaching edge may be all they need to get a leg-up in the standings.

Matt: **It should be noted that CU is my team, I live and breathe CU, so please take that into account while judging my predictions. I hope my reasoning and logic is sound enough to eliminate ALL of my biases** While I disagree with Michael in that CU lacks talent or depth on their roster, it’s certainly difficult to argue the lack of experience for the young Buffs. Clearly in the wake of the Dan Hawkins era and scandal ridden end to the Gary Barnett era, the Colorado football program has surely seen better days. However, in Jon Embree I see a coach with a great vision and enormous upside in Boulder. As an alum under coach Bill McCartney and as a position coach in the NFL, Coach Embree knows what he’s looking for out of his players and has established quite a new culture in Boulder post the “Hawk-love” zen nonsense that was in play by his predecessor.

CU’s goal has been extremely transparent coming into this season as everyone from the coaching staff to the walk-ons are preaching Bowl Game. This ‘6 or more wins or bust’ attitude would be a momentous achievement for this rebuilding Buffs program, and a vast improvement on a 3-10 campaign in Coach Embree’s first year. The Buffs will face this challenge with a new team, as their starting QB, RB, along with most of their starters from a year ago graduated (CU is only returning 13 starters: 4 on offense, 7 on defense, and their P & K). Kansas transfer QB Jordan Webb was recently named the starter of this new-look Buffs group and is tabbed to lead the way with his experience edge over the other contenders.

CU’s schedule is pretty challenging. Facing USC, Oregon, Stanford, and UW once again will make life difficult on the Buffs (and especially on this young defense). However, the early part of their schedule features many winnable games, and green coaches. In fact, the Buffaloes face 6 teams who will have a new face roaming the sideline. This fact gives CU hope against the likes of UCLA, Arizona St, and Washington St—all games they lost a season ago. With a Bowl game berth ensconced in their sights, the Buffs will be poised to garner at least 6 wins this season, a feat which would catapult this program into a bright future.

Game-by-game Predictions

Vs. CSU (Invesco), 9/1, 2pm (Mountain), FX

Michael: CSU will certainly employ a run-first mentality, so they have to get off to a fast start.  If they get down early, they’ll stay down.  Talent-level, in my opinion, is at the lowest it’s been since pre-Lubick.  I didn’t like Fairchild as a coach or a person, so I am happy to see CSU add a classy guy, even if he is a “Saban disciple.”  CU wins easy: CU 31, CSU 10.

Matt: The annual ‘Rocky Mountain Showdown’ has lost its national luster in these past few years, but don’t underestimate just how much this game means to both of these programs. Starting your season off with a win is every team’s goal, but when wins are at such a premium for these Colorado schools you have to pounce on every opportunity you can. The Buffs have won each of the past two matchups and look to extend that winning streak against the Rams this year in Denver. CSU will be featuring a new coach, QB, and a lot of new faces on D. Jim McElwain will take the reins in his first ever head coaching gig coming over from the National Champion Crimson Tide, trying to establish his pro-style offense with a non-pro style QB.

Both talent and surprisingly experience both favor CU here in a game that I don’t see will be that close. The first half will start slow with both teams trying to establish the run and feel each other out. CU has good depth at RB and an experienced OL which will propel them versus a VERY undersized CSU defensive front seven (CSU’s largest DL is listed at 265 at the moment). CU’s will take an early lead and force CSU to throw in the 2nd half. Pass rush and good secondary play will seal Colorado’s easy victory early in the 2nd half as the Buffs will cruise. CU 27 CSU 13

Sacramento State, 9/8, 1pm, Pac 12 Network

Michael: Sacramento State is a bad FCS team.  Yes, they won at Oregon State last year, but the proximity of the schools means the Sac State players all felt slighted by the Beavers and played with a huge chip.  They won’t have the same motivation against the Buffs: CU 34, Sac State 10.

Matt: Nightmares of CU’s potentially most embarrassing loss in team history against Montana St still linger in the thoughts of Buff fans. Especially since this very same Sacramento St team downed a Pac-12 team only 1 year ago when they visited Oregon St in Corvallis.

CU under the Embree regime will not be allowed to take any game lightly, and the Buffs fully understand what this game means. An FCS opponent on your schedule is as close to a “free-win” as you can get if you’re a ‘BCS team’ and the Buffs know that they may NEED this game in order to reach their bowl game goal.

I see the Buffs establishing their running attack early and often, and depth wears down the thin SacSt D en route to an easy victory. CU 38 Sac St 13

At Fresno State, 9/15, 6pm, CBS SN

Michael: Pat Hill’s demise has been a long-time coming.  Fresno hasn’t really fielded a competitive team in a few years.  With the emergence of Boise State, the Bulldogs seemed to disappear from the national view, and even started to fall apart in WAC play, particularly as Nevada rose up under Colin Kaepernick.  CU will probably struggle, given that they haven’t won a non-conference road game in my son’s lifetime, but there should be just enough confidence on the offensive side of the ball to win a low-scoring contest against a much less-talented team: CU 23, Fresno 14.

Matt: The day after Thanksgiving win over Utah @ Rice-Eccles ended one of the longest stretches of road futility in recent college football memory for the Buffs, and also served as a good building block going forward. This game @ Fresno may not seem like a monumental affair, but for CU it will be a big confidence boost to go on the road (and out of the time zone this time) and snatch a victory. Fresno features a new coach after the long tenure of Pat Hill and will assuredly be coming off a loss @ Oregon the prior week.

I expect CU to come out sluggish as per usual on the road as Buff Nation takes a deep sigh of “here we go again” and to trail at half. The 2nd half watch for CU to come out firing and quickly get the momentum on their side. Come the 4th quarter, I expect CU’s Pac-12 athletes to eke out a close one. CU 24 Fresno St 20.

At Washington State, 9/22

Michael: I think the game at BYU will tell CU all they need to know about Wazu.  If BYU is able to pound the ball and play keep-away, and force the Wazu offense to get impatient, CU will have a winning formula as well.  CU should be looking to rush for 200+ here, and possibly put Time of Possession close to 40 minutes on their side.  I do think of the 5 games before the bye this is the one that CU is most likely to lose.  I think the confidence gained from the prior week’s win on the road is enough to propel the Buffs, and the ground game to a victory: CU 31, Wazu 24.

Matt: New look Wazzou and Coach Mike Leach should have the Air Raid in full effect coming off a tune up with Eastern Washington prior to meeting the Buffs in Pullman. Last year Wazzou carved up a completely depleted Buffs secondary for over 300 yards and a heartbreaking loss for the Buffs’ first Pac-12 conference game ever—a game Coach Embree will not have forgotten.

CU has always fared decently against Mike Leach coached teams and the secondary will undoubtedly be improved from a year ago (without having walk-on WR’s playing DB), but this will not be a cake walk. CU’s strength on offense will be their running game, while Wazzou will struggle to stop the run. Wazzou should still be able to pass the ball well despite CU’s improved secondary. This game will likely be a shootout and come down to who makes fewer mistakes. CU’s discipline on offense and dedication to the running game will slow Wazzou down enough to make them inpatient and make a couple mistakes. With multiple lead changes in the 2nd half, the Buffs will control the ball and clock at the end of the game to set up a walk-off chip shot FG. CU 37 Wazzou 34.

UCLA, 9/29

Michael: A 4-0 Buffs team should generate some buzz in Boulder.  I think UCLA has the physical advantage here, but so much of college sports is the psychological side.  Who knows where UCLA will be at this point in the season.  They play a winnable road game at Rice, but have several potential L’s on the schedule ahead of this one with Nebraska, Houston, and Oregon State all coming to the Rose Bowl.  If the Bruins are 1-3 with all kinds of young QB mistakes, they’ll probably roll over in Boulder, at altitude.  At 2-2, or 3-1, it’s a different story.  I’m leaning 2-2 for them and giving CU a good game, but Mora probably outsmarts himself and will have trouble adjusting to the college game and dealing with the amateur athletes that play it: CU 23, UCLA 16.

Matt: With CU off to their best start in a long time, confidence is flying high as the Buffs return to Boulder to face UCLA. The same cannot be said for the Bruins who are still working out the kinks of a new head coach in Jim Mora Jr. and new offensive coordinator in Noel Mazzone—as well as starting a freshman at QB in Brett Hundley. The fast start equals a full and boisterous crowd in Boulder and causes problem for the young QB who will make some bad decisions and turn the ball over. I predict CU will jump out to an early first half lead only to watch it be whittled away in the 2^nd half. Come the 4^th quarter Buffs come away after another late mistake by the young QB. CU 27 UCLA 23.

Arizona State, 10/11, 7pm, ESPN

Michael: The Buffs could easily be 5-0 here against what I believe will be a struggling Arizona State team, with a national broadcast on ESPN on Thursday night.  ASU will have a steep learning curve: the style of seasoned head coach (and reputed thug-recruiter) and the disciplinarian newer guy have been quite well-documented in other venues, should someone care to find them.  But there’s still some talent on the roster, if Coach Graham can keep them on the field.  It’s a big game for ASU too, so I suspect they’ll play their game of the season.  They’ll need a win if they have any desires to make a bowl game but I just don’t see it: CU 27, ASU 17.  On a side note, I do believe CU will start 5-1, not 6-0, but I couldn’t figure out which game it is that they’ll drop…if I have to pick one, and i do because there's no chance they'll be 6-0, I’ll say UCLA scores a TD in the waning moments to win 24-23.

Matt: Coming off a bye week and bursting with confidence (and their first appearance in the top 25 polls in a LONG time) the Buffs welcome Arizona St to Folsom for an ESPN primetime showdown. CU, much like last year’s game in primetime at home (USC), will don their all-black uniforms and helmets as the Buff team and fans host a “blackout.” ASU is also coming off a bye, although they are not coming in with a 5-0 record. Struggling to adapt to the new culture change of coach Graham coupled with a difficult early season schedule means bad news for the Sun Devils.

Buffs, behind a wild crowd and a bowl berth in hand come out firing against ASU and grab an early lead of 17 by halftime. ASU will whittle it down with a nervous CU crowd watching in the second half as the lead dwindles to 3 with only 5:00 remaining and all the momentum on the side of ASU. Buffs get a HUGE 3rd and 12 conversion and kneel their way to victory and a bowl berth! CU 29 ASU 26.

At USC, 10/20

Michael: A road trip to the #1 team in the land, playing its first home game in a month, against what could potentially be its fourth ranked opponent of the season.  The Coliseum will be rocking.  The stars will be out in full force.  There’s certainly some potential, from USC’s perspective, to overlook this CU game after winning at CU by 25 last year.  However, this is a team on a mission to destroy everyone in their path.  It’s just unfortunate that Lane Kiffin is their coach.  I just can’t get behind him in any fashion.  I’d like to think CU can give USC a game, but there is nothing that leads me to believe that they will: they are young, inexperienced, and entirely outmatched physically.  If the Buffs are 6-0 and bowl-bound, they’ve already achieved their season goal: how can they readjust their priorities mid-season?  They can't, USC mashes: USC 45, CU 13.

Matt: 6-0 and feeling good, the Buffs take a trip down to Southern Cal for a reality check. Matt Barkley led USC Trojans feature perhaps the most talent laden team in the entire country. The Buffs who reached their Bowl eligibility with their white-knuckle victory over ASU breathes a pseudo sigh of relief and comes into this game flat. Flat is no good against the mighty men of Troy. Last year the Buffs came out firing and scored first only to get trampled 42-17. I fear more of the same this year for the young Buffaloes who will fall here and fall hard. USC 40 CU 21.

At Oregon, 10/27

Michael: This is a bit of a trap-game for Oregon, sandwiched between road contests at Arizona State and USC.  ESPN will already be hyping the SC game and Oregon may forget they have to take care of business to set up the “showdown” in LA.  I’m sure there will be some sloppy play by the Ducks offensively, but I suspect they’ll still control this one: Oregon 38, CU 20.

Matt: After a humbling defeat at the hands of the Trojans, the road does not get easier for the Buffs as they have to go into Eugene to take on the also top-10 Oregon Ducks. Oregon attacks relentlessly and quickly as they grasp an early lead on CU and never look back. The Ducks are a bad matchup for the Buffs who try and find success with many different defensive looks, but to no avail. CU does, however, get more than the 2 points they got last year en route to another battering loss. Oregon 41 CU 17.

Stanford, 11/3

Michael: This is the test game for a young team.  They were bound to lose some games, and lose some games badly.  But how do they respond?  Coming home, is there a lingering effect that prevents them from competing with a good, but not great Stanford team?  Absolutely!  Young teams always have to figure out how to win.  Once they do that, they have to figure out how to win against good teams.  Maybe in 2013: Stanford 31, CU 17.

Matt: Despite coming back home to the friendly Folsom Field the Buffs will face a very strong Stanford team. Even though Andrew Luck is in Indianapolis putting up big numbers, there is not much of a reprieve for CU. Stanford’s discipline and strong rushing attack on offense and very good front seven on defense stymy the Buffaloes who struggle to get started. CU will fall behind early and have a hard time coming back. 2nd half will be played fairly evenly, but Stanford will have a big enough cushion to come away with a victory. Stanford 33 CU 20.

At Arizona, 11/10

Michael: This is the game where CU earns its lumps.  Young teams have to figure out how to win.  They’ve figured out how to win a game or two on the road already.  I believe this is the one where the senior LBs step up and say the defense will give the offense a chance to win.  I don’t believe this will be a pretty win, but a win is a win is a win.  This is the game they finally get that 6th win: CU 17, Zona 13.

Matt: This late in the season Arizona should have figured out the kinks in the Rich Rod offense, while CU, reeling from three straight blowouts, are looking to get back in the win column. Zona starts fast with a couple of big first quarter plays and get out to an early lead which causes CU to meander from their game plan. Sloppy CU play coupled with an irate coach ends poorly for CU who ends up falling to lowly Zona in as humbling of a loss as you can get. Zona 35 CU 21.

Washington, 11/17

Michael: I believe this Washington team will ultimately prove superior to Stanford, but I believe that the young Buffs give UW a lot better game.  Price’s health could be a concern; it always is in November with dual threat QBs.  Sarkisian has the right mindset for a young head coach, so even if Price isn’t healthy, he’ll find a way to score enough points here: UW 27, CU 23.

Matt: UW will likely be a top 20 team when they make their visit to Boulder late in the season, and as we saw last year in a wild & exciting Holiday Bowl, the Huskies seem to play well at the end of the season. With Keith Price and co hitting on all cylinders early, the Buffs fall behind. The game turns into a shootout much like the 2011 Holiday Bowl except without the Heisman pedigree of RGIII. UW has too much offensive firepower and too good of a QB to drop this one despite a decent 2nd half by CU. UW 37 CU 28.

Utah, 11/23, 1pm, FX/Fox

Michael: I already predicted this one in my Utah predictions: CU 24, Utah 20.

Matt: The Buffs, sitting at 6-5, have had a roller coaster year up to this point. Starting 6-0 and accomplishing their Bowl eligibility goal early, only to see 5 straight losses mar the great early campaign. In to Boulder comes the Utah Utes with revenge on their minds after CU ended their hopes to take home a Pac-12 South title in their first year in the conference. Senior day in Boulder calls for an emotional atmosphere for the packed house in Folsom Field where CU and Utah as budding rivals. The game is hard fought and chippy early as signs of this budding rivalry start to show as players seem to dislike each other more and more with each whistle. Back and forth action ensues as the 4th quarter both teams enter tied. A late Utah lead turns into disaster as John White IV fumbles and gives CU excellent field position as they score to take a three point lead. Utah drives right back down the field, only to see their game tying FG hit the uprights and game end in heartbreak two seasons in a row. CU 33 Utah 30.

Final Analysis

Michael: I must have spent too much time talking with Matt this offseason, because I'm buying the Buffs to exceed all reasonable expectations as well.  I think the reason they are rated so low pre-season is the supposed lack of experience.  They played a lot of frosh and sophs last season.  They may not have STARTING experience, but they have a lot of game experience.

The Buffs have definitely recruited a lot better.  With a bowl game run in 2012 not out of the question, that should continue and parlay into making them a perennial top-half  team in the South.  They are really young for sure, but, again not entirely inexperienced.  So this year should give them the springboard to move forward into a more successful 2013 season, perhaps even as many as 9 wins, though, this early in the process, I'll go ahead and say 8.  Is that a bold enough, early enough prediction for you?

Matt: An emotional season, both up and down, is in store for the Buffs. They will accomplish things they have not done in a while (like be favored in a stinkin’ game!) and look great some games, while others will look like the Buffs may never emerge from the doldrums. If CU can make it out of this season 7-5 and en route to postseason play this season will be an overwhelming success and huge step in the future of this program. Coach Embree and his staff recruit with the best of them and will continue to see great talent enter Boulder from year to year, while the program as a whole continues to make strides forward. IF the Buffs can put together a strong campaign as I’ve outlined here, I truly believe they’re destined to be a Pac-12 title contender within 3 years. IF the Buffs fail to win 6 games and fail to earn a Bowl berth, the future of the CU football program will be in limbo, uncertain of if their next step will be forward or back. As the offseason grows shorter, I seem to grow more and more optimistic (and I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing, as the same thing happened to me last year only to witness a 3-10 season) and love the direction our program is headed. This will be a telling year for the Buffs, and I for one cannot wait!