BYU Looking Decent

As I continue to scout out BYU's potential NCAA Tournament opponents (i.e. as I watch way more college basketball than I have time to watch), I become more and more convinced that, in a way, my expectations for BYU are both too high and too low.  This is actually a pretty darn good college team, but it's a college team, that makes a lot of mistakes and has a lot of flaws.  It's a team that, quality-wise, belongs in the NCAA Tournament, although the lack of quality wins would put them firmly on the bubble (b/c they are just now hitting their stride and haven't had any meaningful games in that time period).  This BYU team is certainly as capable as any team that'll end up with an 8 or 9 seed.  This team could beat almost anyone in the nation at home, and compete with most teams at neutral sites similar to what they will likely see in the NCAA Tournament.  The Wisconsin game is a bit of an aberration, as it wasn't a real NCAA Tournament environment, and it was in the pre-Carlino, still trying to find a point guard, Davies still preparing to get serious about basketball, era.

Carlino doesn't do a lot of the things Jimmer does, which is both good and bad.  For all of the Jimmerific things The Jimmer did, he dribbled himself into a lot of turnovers and bad plays.  Carlino hasn't been doing that.  He's been playing within himself and the offense, for the most part.  He was a little Jimmery early on, trying to assert himself as the next great white hype.  But he has settled in nicely.  His first three games he averaged 4 turnovers a game, but in the last seven games, he has only committed four turnovers once.  His assist/turnover ratio has been nearly 2:1 in that span.  He has really bought into the team aspect of a Coach Rose team.  He's even doing some dirty work on the glass, record 6 or more rebounds in 3 of his 10 games, which is great for a PG.

Noah has been extremely efficient.  He's been playing only two more minutes per game than last year, but his scoring has doubled, going from a shade under 50% to a shade over 57%.  His rebounding and blocks have held constant, so he hasn't lost sight of doing the "little" things as he added 8 points/game to his repertoire.  And his ability to spread the floor with his 15-foot sideline jumper has led to a lot of back door cuts for the guards to get layups and for Davies to throw down.  He's just been phenomenal, scoring 20 points-plus in 6 games so far this season.

Davies had a few sporadic quality efforts the early part of the season.  He woke up in the Baylor game though.  It's like he had forgotten what it meant to play in a big-time environment.  He had amazing performances in the biggest conference games of last season.  But he just didn't have that killer instinct until Baylor.  Since then though, he has scored in double figures in all but one game.  He has had 5 double doubles in 10 games.  The only thing that has slowed Davies is foul trouble, though that has been a consistent issue.  On offense, he's constantly seeing immediate double teams in conference play, but he's shot over 50% from the field and really only had one game where he turned the ball over too much.  He's manned up the last month.  BYU will need him in their crucial stretch next week.

The rest of the group has been wildly inconsistent.  Zylstra has had three 20-point-plus games (3rd on the team), yet he is 5th on the team in scoring.  Abouo has been as likely to score 4 points as he is to score 16.  He can shoot 23% or 50%.  He can get himself to the free throw line 10 times or none.  He can grab 16 boards or just one solitary rebound.  I would venture to say that he has probably been the biggest disappointment for the Cougars this season (though expectations for Harrison were high for some).  And yet, he's been an integral part in several of the wins.  Rogers has been hurt, but he can shoot lights out and, after the injury, he was still a solid defender even when his timing was off on the offensive side.  Austin has been a revelation at times and, at others, I just hope he doesn't stay on the court too long b/c he has Jackson Emery-like Chipmunk moments (that's for you, Shane!).  Winder can be extremely effective in spurts, but he can't seem to log large minutes consistently and produce.  Josh Sharp just needs to put on 20 or 30 pounds.  If he were somehow much bulkier, BYU's chances of success in the NCAA Tournament would increase drastically.  Right now, if BYU sees two quality big men and Davies, Hartsock, and/or Austin get in foul trouble, there just isn't another body to put on the court.

Cusick is an interesting case.  He has been an amazing shooter of late.  He certainly values the ball, averaging less than 1 turnover per game.  Yet, before Carlino became eligible, the coaching staff didn't really trust him to carry the load at the point guard position.  What he can certainly do is come in for 5 minutes at a time, two or three times per game, to give the starters a rest with no noticeable dropoff.  He's a feisty defender for sure on the front end of that zone.

I like the make-up of this team.  If everybody is on, there isn't a team in the country that could stop BYU.  The problem is: Zylstra is never on in big games, Abouo is such a wild card, and foul trouble can hamper the bigs, especially Davies and Austin.  [BYU also has that panic when they get in those big games.  Always have, always will]  Those three things are that would prevent this team from making a return to the Sweet 16.  A lot of BYU fans would complain about the 3-point defense and the inability to stop other teams' best scorer.  Guess what?  That happens across all of college basketball.  The other teams' players are on scholarship too.  Sometimes they get on hot streaks.  BYU isn't immune to that kind of thing.  For the season, opponents are still shooting under 33% of their threes.  And, in spite of an increase in the number of possessions/game, BYU is actually giving up fewer points than last year's team (I would argue that the easier schedule and the absolute dominance BYU has had on the boards have contributed to the decrease in points allowed).

I expect good things from this team though, albeit not amazing things.  They should be able to make the NCAA Tournament and play a competitive first game.  If things go right, it may even extend beyond that.  With the honor code, Rogers' and Collinsworth's injuries, and the loss of 4 significant players from last year's team (and James Anderson would make five if he is counted), this isn't as much of a rebuild job this season as people thought.  There's potential, and they're improving.  If they can make their way into the tourney (still up in the air at this point, after going through the potential field and bubble teams, I've got them about 64th team of 68 as of today, with a lot on the line at Va Tech and at home against St. Mary's and Gonzaga), they have a chance to make a little noise.

Mo's fearless prediction is that BYU's crucial 3-game stretch next week, combined with the road game at Gonzaga, will play a major role in where BYU lands in the postseason.  If they go 1-3, they are in the NIT with a home game for at least one round, and, frankly, there isn't much to complain about.  If they go 3-1, they would be looking at a likely single-digit seed.  If they go 2-2, then they are probably right where they are today: on the fringe and it's really a coin flip.  What BYU does have going for it, at least currently, is that they don't have any really bad losses this season.  But they also lack any big wins.  Most bubble teams have both.  BYU continues to be unique...BYU 84, Loyola Marymount 69.