BYU has aspirations to contend for the West Coast Conference Title, even though they are rebuilding a bit, this season. If BYU is going to compete, not only do they need to win this game, but they need to win it convincingly, i.e. by double digits. Loyola Marymount isn't a bad team. But they are not a good team either. They clearly fall in line with the middle third of the conference. BYU needs to win by 10 or more, first, to give themselves confidence that they can win these road games, and second, to serve notice to Santa Clara and San Francisco that they're next on the Cougar Victory Chain. A close win gives Santa Clara and San Francisco hope, and a loss gives them confidence that they should beat this BYU team. Gonzaga won't even blink when BYU comes to town later in the year, and St. Mary's might just take BYU at home as well. BYU beats one of the middle of the road WCC teams on the road by double digits, and BYU is a contender. This is only BYU's fourth true road game, they are 1-2 in their previous three, with the lone win an ugly 61-42 win at Utah. A lot of good teams are getting beat down on the road against other quality opponents, just look at the top 10 the past two weeks.
If BYU hopes to make the NCAA Tournament this season, they need to win this game big. In the absence of any marquee W's yet this season, they certainly can't afford to lose to another "Utah State" type of team. Really, if BYU hopes to make the NCAA Tourney, they need the rest of their road games, excluding Gonzaga (and maybe Virginia Tech), neither of which could hurt, but they aren't a necessity. I thought this was going to be the last tricky of the road games for them. I think the opportunity to play Santa Clara and San Francisco at home first should give them the familiarity with the opponent and style of play, so they only have to adjust to the arena when they travel to play those teams. Gotta have it. Gotta have it big.
With that said, Loyola is a pretty capable offensive team. They average 71.1 points/game and are coming off a 77-point effort in a win on the road at San Francisco (70 points in regulation). They'll need more than 71 points to beat BYU, but St. Mary's didn't have any problem exceeding their season scoring average at home against BYU (22 points above the season average). They have 5 very capable scorers that will take the floor tonight. LMU is very much a perimeter-oriented team. They don't have any great outside shooters, but against BYU 18% 3-point shooters have been known to go 4-6 and score career highs against BYU...
Their slashing PG Anthony Ireland will chuck it up, averaging 4.5 attempts from deep/game, but shooting only 30%. That means he'll hit at least 3 or 4 against BYU. They have 3 other guys that shoot 3/game. They employ a 3 G/2 F or 2 G/3 F (depending on health and foul trouble) lineup. That means Abouo has to be ready to guard different types of players, Davies will have to be prepared to guard an outside-first big man, and Hartsock will be forced to guard a shorter, but quicker player. Either that or BYU will employ a lot of their 2-3 zone. I think that is most likely the case as BYU doesn't have any guard that can consistently stay in front of Ireland, excluding maybe Cusick. Carlino and Winder will get in foul trouble if they try to guard him straight-up. Carlino is actually a very good defender out of the 2-3, and with Rogers back coming off the bench, it may not be a HORRIBLE defense like it was against St. Mary's.
However, BYU cannot afford to give up open threes this game against a team they should beat. Really, though, defensively, BYU is overmatched against any decent teams they play at this point in time. Their best hope is to get in transition and outscore Loyola. The Lions are probably scoring 75 points this game. I remain convinced that BYU needs a 10-point win, i.e. 85 points, to satisfy a fanbase tired of beating up on bad teams and sucking against good or average teams. I also believe BYU can do it. The 82 points at St. Mary's and 88 against San Diego have shown that BYU can score on the road, and they can rebound from disappointment. Rogers potential return tonight might actually slow the Cougars down a bit offensively, as he'll need to adjust to game speed and road environments. 85-75, BYU.
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