Week 6 Rankings, Week 5 Recap

BYU won and covered, thanks to some movement on the spread.  As they continue to adjust to life without Taysom, the offense remains a bit stagnant.  The RB position continues to look as paper thin as the depth at QB.  The WRs didn't start October with the same bang they started September.  The defense looks adequate to handle a softer upcoming schedule.

The midseason doldrums have hit the players now and not just the fans.  Still, BYU continues to look like they will be favored in the rest of their games, barring any major collapses.

The model had its roughest week of the season, picking only 75% of winners correctly and going under 50% against the spread for the first time, which wasn't surprising given that I had 13 games within 1 point of the Vegas spread and it went 4-9 in those 13 games.  However, the model went 2-1 on its upset picks: Tulane beat UCF by 14; Illinois found a way to win by exactly the 1-point my model predicted; and I remain convinced my model got dyslexic with UTEP and UTSA...

Upsets this week:
Missouri over Florida
Syracuse over USF
Rice over FAU
New Mexico over Nevada
San Diego State over Hawaii
[San Jose State over UNLV: game currently a pick]

Top 5 "Locks":
Florida State -9 (Miami)
Ohio -16 (Miami, OH)
Michigan State -14 (Rutgers)
Temple -16 (Tulane)
Toledo -15 (Kent St)
The model doesn't seem to like the "dogs" against the spread this week.

Utah continued to climb up the model, as wins against Michigan, Utah State, and Oregon looked even better this week.  Oklahoma and Alabama jumped into the top 10.  Ole Miss and UCLA dropped out to make way for them.  Arizona State, North Carolina, and Northwestern made appearances in the top 25 this week.  West Virginia, Texas Tech and NC State lost to make way.

The model doesn't expect a lot of intrigue this weekend with just 19 of 56 games expected to be decided by a single score, 9 by a field goal or less.

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior
TCU	0.7317	1	1
Ohio St	0.7234	2	2
Utah	0.7232	3	6
Michigan St	0.7062	4	3
Baylor	0.6967	5	9
Alabama	0.6904	6	13
LSU	0.6877	7	4
Oklahoma	0.6821	8	12
USC	0.6798	9	8
Florida St	0.6768	10	10
Mississippi	0.6719	11	5
Texas A&M	0.6657	12	16
Michigan	0.6648	13	15
Stanford	0.6636	14	18
UCLA	0.6604	15	7
California	0.6511	16	17
Notre Dame	0.6429	17	14
Oregon	0.6394	18	19
Georgia	0.6363	19	11
Missouri	0.6322	20	20
Oklahoma St	0.6257	21	22
Arizona St	0.6152	22	34
Boise St	0.6134	23	24
North Carolina	0.6127	24	29
Northwestern	0.6121	25	33
Temple	0.6114	26	30
BYU	0.6082	27	27
Clemson	0.6034	28	39
West Virginia	0.6029	29	21
Florida	0.6013	30	47
Toledo	0.6009	31	37
Navy	0.5970	32	32
Iowa	0.5915	33	43
Texas Tech	0.5911	34	25
WKU	0.5811	35	46
Wisconsin	0.5775	36	26
Kentucky	0.5775	37	36
Memphis	0.5771	38	41
Arkansas	0.5753	39	51
Mississippi St	0.5741	40	38
Tennessee	0.5720	41	28
NC State	0.5712	42	23
Minnesota	0.5692	43	35
Houston	0.5679	44	54
Georgia Tech	0.5665	45	31
Kansas St	0.5648	46	40
Bowling Green	0.5627	47	52
Pittsburgh	0.5596	48	58
South Carolina	0.5585	49	44
Penn St	0.5572	50	42
Auburn	0.5519	51	53
Duke	0.5519	52	55
Illinois	0.5519	53	57
Ohio	0.5488	54	56
Nebraska	0.5446	55	45
Arizona	0.5403	56	48
Utah St	0.5364	57	64
Virginia Tech	0.5344	58	49
Georgia Southern	0.5320	59	62
Vanderbilt	0.5317	60	66
Miami, FL	0.5276	61	50
Washington	0.5261	62	61
Cincinnati	0.5150	63	69
Appalachian St	0.5147	64	59
Marshall	0.5134	65	67
Indiana	0.5107	66	65
East Carolina	0.5095	67	73
Louisiana Tech	0.5087	68	72
Syracuse	0.5053	69	70
Louisville	0.5053	70	76
Middle Tenn	0.5026	71	63
N Illinois	0.5007	72	60
Texas	0.4999	73	68
Iowa St	0.4733	74	77
Tulsa	0.4724	75	71
Colorado	0.4708	76	74
Ball St	0.4675	77	75
Purdue	0.4672	78	80
Cent Mich	0.4604	79	90
Arkansas St	0.4598	80	84
Boston College	0.4570	81	78
Washington St	0.4556	82	81
W Michigan	0.4518	83	85
Air Force	0.4508	84	82
Maryland	0.4504	85	79
Oregon St	0.4416	86	88
Colorado St	0.4398	87	83
Akron	0.4367	88	87
Massachusetts	0.4329	89	96
Southern Miss	0.4314	90	94
San Diego St	0.4288	91	91
Rutgers	0.4278	92	89
Louisiana	0.4204	93	86
Wake Forest	0.4169	94	92
New Mexico	0.4119	95	97
Kent St	0.4101	96	100
Texas St	0.4082	97	93
Rice	0.3998	98	95
Virginia	0.3957	99	103
Tulane	0.3938	100	112
Buffalo	0.3938	101	98
San Jose St	0.3910	102	102
Hawaii	0.3902	103	105
Connecticut	0.3901	104	111
SMU	0.3888	105	99
FIU	0.3868	106	101
USF	0.3854	107	106
South Alabama	0.3829	108	117
Old Dominion	0.3805	109	104
Charlotte	0.3728	110	107
Troy	0.3614	111	109
UTEP	0.3581	112	110
UNLV	0.3581	113	119
ULM	0.3549	114	116
Georgia St	0.3524	115	108
Fresno St	0.3523	116	115
Nevada	0.3488	117	113
UCF	0.3455	118	114
FAU	0.3341	119	118
UTSA	0.3260	120	125
Army	0.3037	121	121
New Mexico St	0.2990	122	120
Idaho	0.2974	123	124
Kansas	0.2885	124	122
North Texas	0.2820	125	123
E Michigan	0.2801	126	127
Miami, OH	0.2742	127	126
Wyoming	0.1921	128	128

Week 5 Rankings, Week 4 Recap

The model went 46-12 this past weekend and 29-21 against the spread.  The model didn't do as well on upsets this week as Tennessee clutched defeat from the jaws of victory, NIU came up 3 points short against BC, Mizzou couldn't get over the hump against Kentucky, and Arizona State came up just 4 TDs short against USC...

My top 5 locks ended up all being right.  My "next five" showed why I wasn't as confident in them, going a lowly 2-3.

This weeks upsets include:
Tulane over UCF
Illinois over Nebraska
UTEP over UTSA

The 5 locks of the week:
UTEP +3 (UTSA)
Navy -5.5 (Air Force)
NC State -4.5 (Louisville)
TCU -15 (Texas)
Louisiana Lafayette +18 (Louisiana Tech)

The "next" 5:
BYU -17.5 (UConn)
Missouri -2.5 (South Carolina)
Texas Tech +17 (Baylor)
Illinois +6.5 (Nebraska)
Appalachian State -25.5 (Wyoming)

The model has 13 games within 1 point of what the Vegas betting line is.

4 teams dropped out of the top 25 this past weekend; BYU, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Arizona State.  They were replaced by West Virginia, Oklahoma State, NC State, and Boise State.  Utah and USC made big jumps.  The margin between TCU, Ohio State, and Michigan State remains razor thin (and fluid).  I found a strength of schedule issue in the model, so there's some potential variance to be had there; I hope to fix it by next week.  Between a full-time job, coaching HS football, and being a dad, I have a tough time keeping up with my hobby from time to time!

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior	Change
TCU	0.7126	1	3	2
Ohio St	0.7053	2	1	-1
Michigan St	0.7000	3	2	-1
LSU	0.6937	4	4	0
Mississippi	0.6893	5	5	0
Utah	0.6889	6	10	4
UCLA	0.6787	7	8	1
USC	0.6693	8	13	5
Baylor	0.6692	9	9	0
Florida St	0.6673	10	6	-4
Georgia	0.6565	11	7	-4
Oklahoma	0.6509	12	16	4
Alabama	0.6493	13	12	-1
Notre Dame	0.6469	14	15	1
Michigan	0.6435	15	18	3
Texas A&M	0.6416	16	17	1
California	0.6393	17	20	3
Stanford	0.6338	18	19	1
Oregon	0.6200	19	11	-8
Missouri	0.6159	20	14	-6
West Virginia	0.6125	21	28	7
Oklahoma St	0.6108	22	26	4
NC State	0.5983	23	31	8
Boise St	0.5976	24	30	6
Texas Tech	0.5972	25	21	-4
Wisconsin	0.5967	26	29	3
BYU	0.5903	27	22	-5
Tennessee	0.5889	28	24	-4
North Carolina	0.5886	29	27	-2
Temple	0.5838	30	38	8
Georgia Tech	0.5829	31	25	-6
Navy	0.5822	32	33	1
Northwestern	0.5792	33	36	3
Arizona St	0.5778	34	23	-11
Minnesota	0.5766	35	39	4
Kentucky	0.5761	36	45	9
Toledo	0.5745	37	42	5
Mississippi St	0.5743	38	48	10
Clemson	0.5743	39	41	2
Kansas St	0.5736	40	35	-5
Memphis	0.5632	41	52	11
Penn St	0.5615	42	44	2
Iowa	0.5586	43	49	6
South Carolina	0.5585	44	43	-1
Nebraska	0.5560	45	46	1
WKU	0.5555	46	47	1
Florida	0.5549	47	54	7
Arizona	0.5525	48	34	-14
Virginia Tech	0.5520	49	32	-17
Miami, FL	0.5487	50	53	3
Arkansas	0.5463	51	40	-11
Bowling Green	0.5440	52	57	5
Auburn	0.5416	53	37	-16
Houston	0.5412	54	60	6
Duke	0.5388	55	63	8
Ohio	0.5345	56	51	-5
Illinois	0.5311	57	61	4
Pittsburgh	0.5250	58	59	1
Appalachian St	0.5243	59	70	11
N Illinois	0.5241	60	50	-10
Washington	0.5193	61	56	-5
Georgia Southern	0.5193	62	64	2
Middle Tenn	0.5172	63	58	-5
Utah St	0.5169	64	55	-9
Indiana	0.5077	65	68	3
Vanderbilt	0.5050	66	66	0
Marshall	0.5009	67	69	2
Texas	0.4974	68	62	-6
Cincinnati	0.4957	69	65	-4
Syracuse	0.4951	70	67	-3
Tulsa	0.4890	71	72	1
Louisiana Tech	0.4885	72	75	3
East Carolina	0.4864	73	80	7
Colorado	0.4800	74	78	4
Ball St	0.4755	75	71	-4
Louisville	0.4736	76	79	3
Iowa St	0.4642	77	77	0
Boston College	0.4622	78	88	10
Maryland	0.4584	79	76	-3
Purdue	0.4583	80	74	-6
Washington St	0.4583	81	81	0
Air Force	0.4571	82	86	4
Colorado St	0.4530	83	85	2
Arkansas St	0.4518	84	82	-2
W Michigan	0.4477	85	84	-1
Louisiana	0.4433	86	73	-13
Akron	0.4431	87	99	12
Oregon St	0.4390	88	83	-5
Rutgers	0.4339	89	94	5
Cent Mich	0.4322	90	91	1
San Diego St	0.4192	91	93	2
Wake Forest	0.4188	92	89	-3
Texas St	0.4178	93	87	-6
Southern Miss	0.4162	94	98	4
Rice	0.4149	95	97	2
Massachusetts	0.4085	96	100	4
New Mexico	0.4064	97	103	6
Buffalo	0.4063	98	92	-6
SMU	0.4056	99	90	-9
Kent St	0.4054	100	112	12
FIU	0.4023	101	102	1
San Jose St	0.3956	102	115	13
Virginia	0.3951	103	101	-2
Old Dominion	0.3938	104	96	-8
Hawaii	0.3926	105	104	-1
USF	0.3908	106	109	3
Charlotte	0.3904	107	95	-12
Georgia St	0.3904	108	106	-2
Troy	0.3895	109	107	-2
UTEP	0.3890	110	110	0
Connecticut	0.3888	111	105	-6
Tulane	0.3736	112	111	-1
Nevada	0.3718	113	117	4
UCF	0.3684	114	113	-1
Fresno St	0.3648	115	108	-7
ULM	0.3648	116	116	0
South Alabama	0.3584	117	114	-3
FAU	0.3362	118	122	4
UNLV	0.3293	119	124	5
New Mexico St	0.3164	120	118	-2
Army	0.3039	121	127	6
Kansas	0.3027	122	119	-3
North Texas	0.3020	123	121	-2
Idaho	0.3015	124	120	-4
UTSA	0.2932	125	123	-2
Miami, OH	0.2800	126	126	0
E Michigan	0.2714	127	125	-2
Wyoming	0.1992	128	128	0