Week 6 Rankings, Week 5 Recap

BYU won and covered, thanks to some movement on the spread.  As they continue to adjust to life without Taysom, the offense remains a bit stagnant.  The RB position continues to look as paper thin as the depth at QB.  The WRs didn't start October with the same bang they started September.  The defense looks adequate to handle a softer upcoming schedule.

The midseason doldrums have hit the players now and not just the fans.  Still, BYU continues to look like they will be favored in the rest of their games, barring any major collapses.

The model had its roughest week of the season, picking only 75% of winners correctly and going under 50% against the spread for the first time, which wasn't surprising given that I had 13 games within 1 point of the Vegas spread and it went 4-9 in those 13 games.  However, the model went 2-1 on its upset picks: Tulane beat UCF by 14; Illinois found a way to win by exactly the 1-point my model predicted; and I remain convinced my model got dyslexic with UTEP and UTSA...

Upsets this week:
Missouri over Florida
Syracuse over USF
Rice over FAU
New Mexico over Nevada
San Diego State over Hawaii
[San Jose State over UNLV: game currently a pick]

Top 5 "Locks":
Florida State -9 (Miami)
Ohio -16 (Miami, OH)
Michigan State -14 (Rutgers)
Temple -16 (Tulane)
Toledo -15 (Kent St)
The model doesn't seem to like the "dogs" against the spread this week.

Utah continued to climb up the model, as wins against Michigan, Utah State, and Oregon looked even better this week.  Oklahoma and Alabama jumped into the top 10.  Ole Miss and UCLA dropped out to make way for them.  Arizona State, North Carolina, and Northwestern made appearances in the top 25 this week.  West Virginia, Texas Tech and NC State lost to make way.

The model doesn't expect a lot of intrigue this weekend with just 19 of 56 games expected to be decided by a single score, 9 by a field goal or less.

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior
TCU	0.7317	1	1
Ohio St	0.7234	2	2
Utah	0.7232	3	6
Michigan St	0.7062	4	3
Baylor	0.6967	5	9
Alabama	0.6904	6	13
LSU	0.6877	7	4
Oklahoma	0.6821	8	12
USC	0.6798	9	8
Florida St	0.6768	10	10
Mississippi	0.6719	11	5
Texas A&M	0.6657	12	16
Michigan	0.6648	13	15
Stanford	0.6636	14	18
UCLA	0.6604	15	7
California	0.6511	16	17
Notre Dame	0.6429	17	14
Oregon	0.6394	18	19
Georgia	0.6363	19	11
Missouri	0.6322	20	20
Oklahoma St	0.6257	21	22
Arizona St	0.6152	22	34
Boise St	0.6134	23	24
North Carolina	0.6127	24	29
Northwestern	0.6121	25	33
Temple	0.6114	26	30
BYU	0.6082	27	27
Clemson	0.6034	28	39
West Virginia	0.6029	29	21
Florida	0.6013	30	47
Toledo	0.6009	31	37
Navy	0.5970	32	32
Iowa	0.5915	33	43
Texas Tech	0.5911	34	25
WKU	0.5811	35	46
Wisconsin	0.5775	36	26
Kentucky	0.5775	37	36
Memphis	0.5771	38	41
Arkansas	0.5753	39	51
Mississippi St	0.5741	40	38
Tennessee	0.5720	41	28
NC State	0.5712	42	23
Minnesota	0.5692	43	35
Houston	0.5679	44	54
Georgia Tech	0.5665	45	31
Kansas St	0.5648	46	40
Bowling Green	0.5627	47	52
Pittsburgh	0.5596	48	58
South Carolina	0.5585	49	44
Penn St	0.5572	50	42
Auburn	0.5519	51	53
Duke	0.5519	52	55
Illinois	0.5519	53	57
Ohio	0.5488	54	56
Nebraska	0.5446	55	45
Arizona	0.5403	56	48
Utah St	0.5364	57	64
Virginia Tech	0.5344	58	49
Georgia Southern	0.5320	59	62
Vanderbilt	0.5317	60	66
Miami, FL	0.5276	61	50
Washington	0.5261	62	61
Cincinnati	0.5150	63	69
Appalachian St	0.5147	64	59
Marshall	0.5134	65	67
Indiana	0.5107	66	65
East Carolina	0.5095	67	73
Louisiana Tech	0.5087	68	72
Syracuse	0.5053	69	70
Louisville	0.5053	70	76
Middle Tenn	0.5026	71	63
N Illinois	0.5007	72	60
Texas	0.4999	73	68
Iowa St	0.4733	74	77
Tulsa	0.4724	75	71
Colorado	0.4708	76	74
Ball St	0.4675	77	75
Purdue	0.4672	78	80
Cent Mich	0.4604	79	90
Arkansas St	0.4598	80	84
Boston College	0.4570	81	78
Washington St	0.4556	82	81
W Michigan	0.4518	83	85
Air Force	0.4508	84	82
Maryland	0.4504	85	79
Oregon St	0.4416	86	88
Colorado St	0.4398	87	83
Akron	0.4367	88	87
Massachusetts	0.4329	89	96
Southern Miss	0.4314	90	94
San Diego St	0.4288	91	91
Rutgers	0.4278	92	89
Louisiana	0.4204	93	86
Wake Forest	0.4169	94	92
New Mexico	0.4119	95	97
Kent St	0.4101	96	100
Texas St	0.4082	97	93
Rice	0.3998	98	95
Virginia	0.3957	99	103
Tulane	0.3938	100	112
Buffalo	0.3938	101	98
San Jose St	0.3910	102	102
Hawaii	0.3902	103	105
Connecticut	0.3901	104	111
SMU	0.3888	105	99
FIU	0.3868	106	101
USF	0.3854	107	106
South Alabama	0.3829	108	117
Old Dominion	0.3805	109	104
Charlotte	0.3728	110	107
Troy	0.3614	111	109
UTEP	0.3581	112	110
UNLV	0.3581	113	119
ULM	0.3549	114	116
Georgia St	0.3524	115	108
Fresno St	0.3523	116	115
Nevada	0.3488	117	113
UCF	0.3455	118	114
FAU	0.3341	119	118
UTSA	0.3260	120	125
Army	0.3037	121	121
New Mexico St	0.2990	122	120
Idaho	0.2974	123	124
Kansas	0.2885	124	122
North Texas	0.2820	125	123
E Michigan	0.2801	126	127
Miami, OH	0.2742	127	126
Wyoming	0.1921	128	128