1-Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Michigan State
2-Kansas, Missouri, Ohio State, Duke
3-Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Louisville
4-Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Murray State
5-Florida, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's
6-Wichita State, Cincinnati, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
7-Creighton, Temple, Memphis, Gonzaga
8-SDSU, UNLV, Purdue, Virginia
9-Southern Miss, Alabama, Kansas State, Iowa State
10-Connecticut, West Virginia, California, Long Beach State
11-Harvard, St. Louis, Colorado State, Texas
12- BYU, VCU; play-ins South Florida, Washington, Drexel, Xavier
13-Colorado, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, Belmont
14-St. Bonaventure, Ohio, Davidson, Montana
15-Loyola (MD), Long Island, Lehigh, Detroit
16-UNC-Asheville, Lamar; play-ins Norfolk State, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky
Sunday, March 11, 2012
What Might The Bracket Look Like on Sunday?
I think there's a lot of hype that goes into Championship Week, especially at ESPN with "Joey Brackets" and elsewhere, where everyone throws in their two cents, so here's mine. First, it looks like I was wrong about at least one thing, perhaps two. Colorado State, an 11-loss MWC team will likely make the tournament and set the record for the worst at-large MWC team ever, edging out a 24-8 UNLV team from a few years back. I said no chance a few weeks ago, but with the expanded field and the increasing parody in college basketball, I'll go ahead and eat my crow on that one. Second, BYU seemed solidly in the field at one point, but, while I still believe they hear their name on Selection Sunday, it's likely as one of the last two teams to NOT play in a play-in, or actually in the play-in game instead of being a "comfortable" 11-seed where I thought/hoped they'd land a week ago.
Also, I believe the "experts" put too much emphasis on conference tournaments. Last season, it seemed very clear (to me at least) that the Committee valued the regular season immensely more than runs, or early losses, in conference tournaments. The committee didn't appear to sort the bubble teams by their performance in conference tournaments, as Lunardi and others have continuously indicated is the case this week (with his Bracketology updates every few hours as tournament games finished). Seton Hall or Mississippi State won't necessarily miss the field because of early losses in their tournaments. NC State or Texas won't necessarily get into the field b/c they pulled off an upset in their conference tournament and USF didn't.
One final thought, the Committee included two mid-majors in the play-in games last season. Neither of the two seemed to the "experts" to fit in the tournament, which would seem to favor Drexel and Iona over other potential bubble teams. The Committee tried and failed on UAB last year, but definitely hit on VCU, so I think they take their chances with at least one this year, even if it doesn't "fit." That's one interesting thing I'm looking at: do Drexel and Iona get chances in play-in games or will high majors like Washington, Seton Hall, NC State, Mississippi State get the nod?
The Pac 12 was guaranteed to "steal" a bid today, which Colorado certainly did, but for the most part, conference tournaments have gone about as predicted. St. Bonaventure gets a shot at Xavier which would steal a bid (I think Xavier will make it either way, but for them it may be the difference of a play-in game or not).
So, here's my thoughts on the seeding:
1-Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Ohio State (I think the winner of Big Ten Title game takes the fourth 1-seed over KU or Mizzou, and I'm picking OSU to win that game)
2-Kansas, Missouri, Michigan State, Duke (KU won the Big XII regular season crown and Mizzou won the Big XII conference tourney title, but I think the fourth #1 seed will go to a team that won both regular season AND conference tourney title, i.e. the Big Ten Champ, since there was a tie for the regular season crown between the teams playing in the title game)
3-Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Louisville (Louisville winning the Big East title gave them 3 more wins over tourney teams and 1 potential tourney team and probably moves them from a 5 to a 3)
4-Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Murray State (even with a win over UNC on Sunday, I think FSU maxes out at a 4-seed; I'm not sure Murray State actually makes it this high, but 30-1 is 30-1 and I hope the Committee rewards that, especially because they went on the road and played two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last season and beat them both)
5-Florida, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's (this is where the bracket really starts to get tricky, because there isn't much difference between the teams in the 5-8 seed range; if Murray State didn't end up as high as four, I'd pick Florida as the team to replace them on the 4-line)
6-Wichita State, Cincinnati, New Mexico, Gonzaga (Cincinnati picked up two extremely valuable wins in the Big East tourney; Wichita State is the most likely team to rise to a vacancy in the higher seeds if Murray State drops this far; New Mexico was MWC regular and tournament champs, so they get the highest of the MWC seeds in spite of the worst RPI of the four tourney teams)
7-Creighton, UNLV, Memphis, Temple (yes, I recognize these are all mid majors that could be seeded anywhere 5-8; Creighton won their conference tournament; UNLV lost in the semis on their homecourt conference tourney but still did great in a popular MWC; Memphis won their regular season title and then conference tourney title, in Memphis; Temple had an early exit from their conference tourney but had a great season and has a great RPI)
8-SDSU, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Virginia (SDSU could easily be a 6-seed but I don't see any team that I listed ahead of them that I see fit to necessarily push down; Vanderbilt certainly could move up as many as two lines with a win against Kentucky on Sunday, but otherwise, they fall into the 8-9 range we typically see from BCS conference teams that underperform in conference play; this may be reaching a little on Purdue, but I certainly feel they're an 8/9 game team; Virginia is the same as Purdue, they MAY be a 9 seed, but they're playing in the same game either way)
9-Southern Miss, Alabama, Kansas State, Iowa State (Southern Miss is the most likely from this group to move up in the 8 range, but again, this 8/9 group every year tends to be those teams, mostly from BCS conferences, that showed flashes of brilliance but couldn't put it together for regular season or conference tournament titles which perfectly suits Southern Miss and the rest of these teams)
10-Connecticut, West Virginia, California, Long Beach State (this may be reaching on both California schools, but given the group of 11s I have, I don't see why these teams couldn't be the last two 10 seeds)
11-Harvard, St. Louis, Colorado State, BYU (another thing the Committee seems to do is pit mid-majors against each other in 6/11 or 5/12 matchups; a lot of people want Harvard to be higher, and they could be a 10 in place of Cal or LBSU but let's not get nuts here, they needed a Penn collapse to be here and boast losses against some bad schools; I could easily see Texas replacing BYU on this line, but either way, I think Texas and BYU will end up being the last two non-play-in at-large teams)
12- Texas and Xavier, assuming they win their conference tourney, otherwise they join the play-in game group, NC State slides out, and VCU takes Xavier's place on the 12 line; play-ins South Florida, Washington, Drexel, NC State (I do firmly believe at least one non-BCS team will make the play-in games; I originally had Mississippi State in here as I thought their entire body of work was potentially better than the Wolfpack, but NC State actually played a few teams in the non-conference and the Committee often rewards a team that challenges itself, even if it costs them an extra loss or two; a week and a half ago, I would have said Mississippi State easy over NC State; in fact, five minutes ago I had MSU in here but...this LAST SPOT is tough, really tough, not just to decide but to pick what I think the Committee will decide; I HOPE the Committee gives the LAST bid to Iona instead of either of those two, but I don't really believe it's going to happen. Of the bubble teams in contention for these play-in games, I firmly believe Iona has the best chance of being this year's VCU and I'd love to see them get that chance: Iona and South Florida for a shot at St. Mary's with UW and Drexel battling it out for a chance to take on the Irish...if only...)
13-VCU, Colorado, South Dakota State, New Mexico State (given this group of 13s, the 4-seeds better watch out, especially with what I deem a pretty weak group of 4 seeds)
14-Belmont, Ohio, Davidson, Montana (if St. Bonaventure's beats Xavier they probably land here, moving either Belmont or Ohio up to the 13 line as VCU moves up to a 12; if the 3 seeds weren't particularly strong this year, any of these four teams would be capable of an upset, as it is, though, I don't see an upset as the 3s are pretty legit this season)
15-Loyola (MD), Long Island, Lehigh, Detroit (Doug Gottlieb says watch out for Detroit in the tournament, so whatever 2-seed they play, I will instantly move the 2-seed on, IF Detroit ends up with a 15 ahead of UNC-Asheville, which I'm not sold on)
16-UNC-Asheville, Lamar; play-ins Norfolk State, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky (some of these are familiar names in recent NCAA Tournament history, but none of them stand much of a chance this year)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Arizona, Iona. I don't feel like there is anyone to really "get screwed" this season as I believe Colorado (and one other team that escapes me at the moment) was last year. Any of these teams COULD be in the tournament, but I could make a very reasonable argument for any of these teams belonging in the NIT, and even as 2-seeds in that tournament.
Other teams also in consideration for the final at-large bids are Northwestern, Miami, and Ole Miss, but, again, I do not think any of them could feel "screwed" by an NCAA Tournament snub. There is a reason we have the NIT. Any of the last four in or the first seven out exemplify that reason! Some are young, talented but inconsistent teams: they benefit from potentially deep runs in the NIT and the experience of playing in Madison Square Garden (like Alabama and Wichita State which are both single digit seeds in the NCAA this season). Others are veteran teams that just didn't have enough talent to compete with the big guys: their seniors get a chance to go out on the court and get a few more games in front of the home crowd (like Washington State which made a nice run last year but clearly had some rebuilding to do this year).
The NIT is a beautiful thing, and this is why I'm glad expanding the field stopped at 68 instead of 98. It's bad enough some of the teams I've discussed will make the tournament. But could you imagine comparing the resumes of bubble teams such as Illinois, UCLA, and Maryland this season? That's what we would be looking at in a field of 96!
Also, I believe the "experts" put too much emphasis on conference tournaments. Last season, it seemed very clear (to me at least) that the Committee valued the regular season immensely more than runs, or early losses, in conference tournaments. The committee didn't appear to sort the bubble teams by their performance in conference tournaments, as Lunardi and others have continuously indicated is the case this week (with his Bracketology updates every few hours as tournament games finished). Seton Hall or Mississippi State won't necessarily miss the field because of early losses in their tournaments. NC State or Texas won't necessarily get into the field b/c they pulled off an upset in their conference tournament and USF didn't.
One final thought, the Committee included two mid-majors in the play-in games last season. Neither of the two seemed to the "experts" to fit in the tournament, which would seem to favor Drexel and Iona over other potential bubble teams. The Committee tried and failed on UAB last year, but definitely hit on VCU, so I think they take their chances with at least one this year, even if it doesn't "fit." That's one interesting thing I'm looking at: do Drexel and Iona get chances in play-in games or will high majors like Washington, Seton Hall, NC State, Mississippi State get the nod?
The Pac 12 was guaranteed to "steal" a bid today, which Colorado certainly did, but for the most part, conference tournaments have gone about as predicted. St. Bonaventure gets a shot at Xavier which would steal a bid (I think Xavier will make it either way, but for them it may be the difference of a play-in game or not).
So, here's my thoughts on the seeding:
1-Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Ohio State (I think the winner of Big Ten Title game takes the fourth 1-seed over KU or Mizzou, and I'm picking OSU to win that game)
2-Kansas, Missouri, Michigan State, Duke (KU won the Big XII regular season crown and Mizzou won the Big XII conference tourney title, but I think the fourth #1 seed will go to a team that won both regular season AND conference tourney title, i.e. the Big Ten Champ, since there was a tie for the regular season crown between the teams playing in the title game)
3-Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Louisville (Louisville winning the Big East title gave them 3 more wins over tourney teams and 1 potential tourney team and probably moves them from a 5 to a 3)
4-Florida State, Georgetown, Indiana, Murray State (even with a win over UNC on Sunday, I think FSU maxes out at a 4-seed; I'm not sure Murray State actually makes it this high, but 30-1 is 30-1 and I hope the Committee rewards that, especially because they went on the road and played two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last season and beat them both)
5-Florida, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's (this is where the bracket really starts to get tricky, because there isn't much difference between the teams in the 5-8 seed range; if Murray State didn't end up as high as four, I'd pick Florida as the team to replace them on the 4-line)
6-Wichita State, Cincinnati, New Mexico, Gonzaga (Cincinnati picked up two extremely valuable wins in the Big East tourney; Wichita State is the most likely team to rise to a vacancy in the higher seeds if Murray State drops this far; New Mexico was MWC regular and tournament champs, so they get the highest of the MWC seeds in spite of the worst RPI of the four tourney teams)
7-Creighton, UNLV, Memphis, Temple (yes, I recognize these are all mid majors that could be seeded anywhere 5-8; Creighton won their conference tournament; UNLV lost in the semis on their homecourt conference tourney but still did great in a popular MWC; Memphis won their regular season title and then conference tourney title, in Memphis; Temple had an early exit from their conference tourney but had a great season and has a great RPI)
8-SDSU, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Virginia (SDSU could easily be a 6-seed but I don't see any team that I listed ahead of them that I see fit to necessarily push down; Vanderbilt certainly could move up as many as two lines with a win against Kentucky on Sunday, but otherwise, they fall into the 8-9 range we typically see from BCS conference teams that underperform in conference play; this may be reaching a little on Purdue, but I certainly feel they're an 8/9 game team; Virginia is the same as Purdue, they MAY be a 9 seed, but they're playing in the same game either way)
9-Southern Miss, Alabama, Kansas State, Iowa State (Southern Miss is the most likely from this group to move up in the 8 range, but again, this 8/9 group every year tends to be those teams, mostly from BCS conferences, that showed flashes of brilliance but couldn't put it together for regular season or conference tournament titles which perfectly suits Southern Miss and the rest of these teams)
10-Connecticut, West Virginia, California, Long Beach State (this may be reaching on both California schools, but given the group of 11s I have, I don't see why these teams couldn't be the last two 10 seeds)
11-Harvard, St. Louis, Colorado State, BYU (another thing the Committee seems to do is pit mid-majors against each other in 6/11 or 5/12 matchups; a lot of people want Harvard to be higher, and they could be a 10 in place of Cal or LBSU but let's not get nuts here, they needed a Penn collapse to be here and boast losses against some bad schools; I could easily see Texas replacing BYU on this line, but either way, I think Texas and BYU will end up being the last two non-play-in at-large teams)
12- Texas and Xavier, assuming they win their conference tourney, otherwise they join the play-in game group, NC State slides out, and VCU takes Xavier's place on the 12 line; play-ins South Florida, Washington, Drexel, NC State (I do firmly believe at least one non-BCS team will make the play-in games; I originally had Mississippi State in here as I thought their entire body of work was potentially better than the Wolfpack, but NC State actually played a few teams in the non-conference and the Committee often rewards a team that challenges itself, even if it costs them an extra loss or two; a week and a half ago, I would have said Mississippi State easy over NC State; in fact, five minutes ago I had MSU in here but...this LAST SPOT is tough, really tough, not just to decide but to pick what I think the Committee will decide; I HOPE the Committee gives the LAST bid to Iona instead of either of those two, but I don't really believe it's going to happen. Of the bubble teams in contention for these play-in games, I firmly believe Iona has the best chance of being this year's VCU and I'd love to see them get that chance: Iona and South Florida for a shot at St. Mary's with UW and Drexel battling it out for a chance to take on the Irish...if only...)
13-VCU, Colorado, South Dakota State, New Mexico State (given this group of 13s, the 4-seeds better watch out, especially with what I deem a pretty weak group of 4 seeds)
14-Belmont, Ohio, Davidson, Montana (if St. Bonaventure's beats Xavier they probably land here, moving either Belmont or Ohio up to the 13 line as VCU moves up to a 12; if the 3 seeds weren't particularly strong this year, any of these four teams would be capable of an upset, as it is, though, I don't see an upset as the 3s are pretty legit this season)
15-Loyola (MD), Long Island, Lehigh, Detroit (Doug Gottlieb says watch out for Detroit in the tournament, so whatever 2-seed they play, I will instantly move the 2-seed on, IF Detroit ends up with a 15 ahead of UNC-Asheville, which I'm not sold on)
16-UNC-Asheville, Lamar; play-ins Norfolk State, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky (some of these are familiar names in recent NCAA Tournament history, but none of them stand much of a chance this year)
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Arizona, Iona. I don't feel like there is anyone to really "get screwed" this season as I believe Colorado (and one other team that escapes me at the moment) was last year. Any of these teams COULD be in the tournament, but I could make a very reasonable argument for any of these teams belonging in the NIT, and even as 2-seeds in that tournament.
Other teams also in consideration for the final at-large bids are Northwestern, Miami, and Ole Miss, but, again, I do not think any of them could feel "screwed" by an NCAA Tournament snub. There is a reason we have the NIT. Any of the last four in or the first seven out exemplify that reason! Some are young, talented but inconsistent teams: they benefit from potentially deep runs in the NIT and the experience of playing in Madison Square Garden (like Alabama and Wichita State which are both single digit seeds in the NCAA this season). Others are veteran teams that just didn't have enough talent to compete with the big guys: their seniors get a chance to go out on the court and get a few more games in front of the home crowd (like Washington State which made a nice run last year but clearly had some rebuilding to do this year).
The NIT is a beautiful thing, and this is why I'm glad expanding the field stopped at 68 instead of 98. It's bad enough some of the teams I've discussed will make the tournament. But could you imagine comparing the resumes of bubble teams such as Illinois, UCLA, and Maryland this season? That's what we would be looking at in a field of 96!
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Mo's Bubble 3/8/2012
As conference tournaments advance, most of us watch closely to see which teams lose and are eliminated (maybe not as close as Joe Lunardi, but he gets paid to do it). Over the past few days, several bubble teams have seen their chances slip as these teams have lost early and often in their conference tournament. As I posted a while back (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-bubble-2262012.html), I had 61 teams that I believed would make the NCAA Tournament, leaving just 7 at-large bids remaining, barring any major upsets in conference tournaments shrinking that number even further. There are two of my 61 that I may slightly doubt at this point in time, but I feel supremely confident in my other 59.
Seton Hall, since I locked them in has gone 1-3, with two losses to teams they had no business losing to: Rutgers and DePaul (a 2-2 record and they could still feel somewhat safe, but alas, the Mo Jinx came back to bite them). Mississippi State I locked in some time ago, figuring that they could beat Georgia at home and win at either LSU or Auburn. Instead, they lost all three of those games before losing to Georgia again in the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, I think they probably still make the tournament, since the Committee has emphasized that wins in November and December count just as much as wins in February and March. Both may be looking at play-in game scenarios at this point. Both could easily be playing in the NIT.
Now, back to those 7 spots and the teams I was considering for them. I was watching the following teams: Xavier, St. Joe's, Miami, NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
I believe West Virginia and UConn from the Big East get in. USF lost tonight and is in a precarious situation now, especially with several bubble teams still in contention in conference tournaments.
NW, Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado all eliminated themselves from at-large contention a while ago, but I hadn't updated my list yet (though some argue NW still had a shot until their loss today: I think they're a feel-good story that people WANT in the tournament but they don't really have the resume to justify it).
Texas scored the biggest bubble win of the day, beating an NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State.
Colorado State, Miami, NC State, UCF, and Arizona also all won on days when others lost, though none of them beat anything resembling a tournament team.
Oregon fell just short in a late comeback against Colorado, as did Washington against Oregon State.
Xavier and St. Joe's play on Friday after a while off. Xavier should be "safely" in the field with one more win. St. Joe's probably needs AT LEAST two (though if they win three they get an automatic bid, so).
Locking in WVU and UConn, that's 63 bids (assuming Seton Hall and Mississippi State truly remain in the field), leaving four remaining. Cal was my only lock from the Pac 12. They are one of the Final Four in the Pac 12 Tournament, but it is extremely possible that one at-large will be taken away by another Pac 12 team (CU split with them in the regular season, and led both games at halftime). I am assuming that the Pac 12 steals a bid, either Arizona or Colorado: 64 bids, leaving just 4 remaining.
Other teams drawing attention lately are Tennessee, Drexel, and Iona (who I thought would just win their conference tourney). If Tennessee doesn't win their conference tournament, they will have 14 losses, and, while I wouldn't put it past the Committee to include them, it seems a bit ridiculous to include a team with that many losses, including 4 to teams outside the top 100. I believe, based on last year's experience, that either Drexel or Iona will make the field as a play-in team, despite not appearing to have as strong of a resume as others. (I personally would like to see BOTH make it, because I believe Iona would have a great chance of having a VCU-like run in this tournament, but it's probably just going to be Drexel making the field). 65 bids: three remaining.
My money would be on Xavier, Colorado State, and Washington. Texas has a legit shot for sure. NC State is right there, especially if they can score a win over Virginia on Friday, which I believe they can do (Miami has a bit more of an uphill battle with Florida State, that is playing for the chance at a 4 seed). However, if Long Beach State doesn't win the Big West tournament, I believe they would make it as an at-large over any of these teams.
After looking this over, maybe Seton Hall and Mississippi State won't make the tournament, maybe Drexel either. These bids are really coming down to the wire. It's going to be tight.
Seton Hall, since I locked them in has gone 1-3, with two losses to teams they had no business losing to: Rutgers and DePaul (a 2-2 record and they could still feel somewhat safe, but alas, the Mo Jinx came back to bite them). Mississippi State I locked in some time ago, figuring that they could beat Georgia at home and win at either LSU or Auburn. Instead, they lost all three of those games before losing to Georgia again in the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, I think they probably still make the tournament, since the Committee has emphasized that wins in November and December count just as much as wins in February and March. Both may be looking at play-in game scenarios at this point. Both could easily be playing in the NIT.
Now, back to those 7 spots and the teams I was considering for them. I was watching the following teams: Xavier, St. Joe's, Miami, NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
I believe West Virginia and UConn from the Big East get in. USF lost tonight and is in a precarious situation now, especially with several bubble teams still in contention in conference tournaments.
NW, Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado all eliminated themselves from at-large contention a while ago, but I hadn't updated my list yet (though some argue NW still had a shot until their loss today: I think they're a feel-good story that people WANT in the tournament but they don't really have the resume to justify it).
Texas scored the biggest bubble win of the day, beating an NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State.
Colorado State, Miami, NC State, UCF, and Arizona also all won on days when others lost, though none of them beat anything resembling a tournament team.
Oregon fell just short in a late comeback against Colorado, as did Washington against Oregon State.
Xavier and St. Joe's play on Friday after a while off. Xavier should be "safely" in the field with one more win. St. Joe's probably needs AT LEAST two (though if they win three they get an automatic bid, so).
Locking in WVU and UConn, that's 63 bids (assuming Seton Hall and Mississippi State truly remain in the field), leaving four remaining. Cal was my only lock from the Pac 12. They are one of the Final Four in the Pac 12 Tournament, but it is extremely possible that one at-large will be taken away by another Pac 12 team (CU split with them in the regular season, and led both games at halftime). I am assuming that the Pac 12 steals a bid, either Arizona or Colorado: 64 bids, leaving just 4 remaining.
Other teams drawing attention lately are Tennessee, Drexel, and Iona (who I thought would just win their conference tourney). If Tennessee doesn't win their conference tournament, they will have 14 losses, and, while I wouldn't put it past the Committee to include them, it seems a bit ridiculous to include a team with that many losses, including 4 to teams outside the top 100. I believe, based on last year's experience, that either Drexel or Iona will make the field as a play-in team, despite not appearing to have as strong of a resume as others. (I personally would like to see BOTH make it, because I believe Iona would have a great chance of having a VCU-like run in this tournament, but it's probably just going to be Drexel making the field). 65 bids: three remaining.
My money would be on Xavier, Colorado State, and Washington. Texas has a legit shot for sure. NC State is right there, especially if they can score a win over Virginia on Friday, which I believe they can do (Miami has a bit more of an uphill battle with Florida State, that is playing for the chance at a 4 seed). However, if Long Beach State doesn't win the Big West tournament, I believe they would make it as an at-large over any of these teams.
After looking this over, maybe Seton Hall and Mississippi State won't make the tournament, maybe Drexel either. These bids are really coming down to the wire. It's going to be tight.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
BYU-Gonzaga Preview, 3/3/2012
BYU and Gonzaga split the regular season series, with BYU winning by 10 at home in a high-scoring fast-paced affair and Gonzaga grinding the play out at home in an 11-point win. Gonzaga travels well, but so does BYU (well, really, they have fans everywhere so they don't even need to "travel"). I also envision fans of both Saint Mary's and San Francisco will be pulling for BYU, after the Zags have dominated conference play for a decade and have earned the ire of all fans in the league at some point over that stretch. So, slight home-court edge for BYU.
As far as the teams: Gonzaga is a bit less diverse offensively than BYU is when at full-strength. However, BYU isn't at full strength with Hartsock's knee injury and sharp-shooter Stephen Rogers never really recovering from mid-season surgery. Gonzaga shoots the ball with a higher percentage, but BYU scores more points, mostly a result of combining their fast pace with offensive rebounding and sharing the basketball. Gonzaga tightens the screws down in their halfcourt defense a lot better than BYU. They really prefer a nice slow, halfcourt, out-execute you type of game.
San Diego didn't really challenge Hartsock on the defensive end very much. Gonzaga will go right at him. Elias Harris scored 19 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the meeting in Spokane without Hartsock, so Harris will look to be aggressive and test Hartsock's knee, and try to force BYU into more zone defense than they would like to play, which opens up their catch-and-shoot guards. Harris can also more aggressively guard Hartsock on the defensive end than USD, as he won't have to fear Hartsock taking him off the dribble because of the large athleticism (and health) advantage Harris has. If Harris neutralizes Hartsock it's game over, unless someone else can step up. One thing is for sure: BYU can't use Zylstra at the 4 for too long on Saturday night: Harris will absolutely eat him up.
After a 12-point performance tonight giving him back-to-back double-figure games, perhaps that man to step up is Brock Zylstra? No. Not a chance. As I highlighted earlier in the week, he has shot 23% from the field, 9% from three, in BYU's losses and didn't score in double figures in a game against any team in the RPI top 100, except for Weber State at home in early December.
Actually, I think the most likely candidate to have a chance at a big night is Anson Winder. Gonzaga had to see how Carlino failed to handle the pressure tonight and try to give him all they can, but they don't really have the guards to pester him for 40 minutes (Marquise Carter COULD but he's such a liability on the offensive end...), so he will likely see some double teams or traps. They will not leave Davies or Hartsock, which leaves Zylstra, Abouo, and Winder as the open guys (and I don't think Abouo's head is right for some reason right now). Winder struggled tonight, going 1-5 from the field. But he's from Vegas and he'll probably feel more comfortable on Saturday. I think perhaps the nerves of playing in front of friends and family for the first time this season were certainly there, and those will be gone the second time around on Saturday night. Usually in these tournament type settings, a guy has a big night one night and doesn't the next, a guy has a poor night shooting and responds with a great night on Day Two. Winder is that X-Factor guy that can give BYU that kind of night. Well, only if BYU is serious about winning.
Gonzaga wisely chose to schedule a meaningless blowout win on Monday night. With the bye and a week between games, it's good for them to get a little bit of a tune-up the week of the tournament. This isn't their first rodeo. Mark Few knows how to best handle his team in this scenario. His team will be prepared and they will be rested. But, on the flip side, they start a few freshmen and bring a few sophomores off the bench. How will those guys respond in their first tournament game? Thus far, the WCC tournament has shown some stellar performances by freshmen and some reasonably lousy ones. If Pangos and Bell come out of the gate swinging, if Dower and Stockton come off the bench and play beyond their years, BYU has their hands full. If one or two, or all, of those guys struggle to find their footing in their first taste of elimination basketball, BYU could jump out early and make it a struggle for the Zags to keep up with their pace and ability to score.
Ultimately, the matchup Gonzaga wants to exploit is Harris-Hartsock. BYU doesn't really have an offense where they can exploit any mismatches except Carlino and the post players. Gonzaga doesn't really have anyone that can guard Abouo, but he's shown such a lack of discipline and a propensity to get in foul trouble, it's tough to COUNT on exploiting his matchup. The one I look to see is Hartsock. Can he guard Harris so BYU can stay in the man-to-man longer against Gonzaga? Can he score on Harris and be a valid scoring option for at least 20 minutes? I like his heart and toughness. But he's clearly playing hurt and, man, Harris dominated the game in Spokane. If Hartsock was 100%, I'd like BYU's chances, but he's not and I don't. BYU's freshmen don't seem to have as much poise as Gonzaga's, and, even with the one-game advantage in terms of tournament experience, that may prove to be as crucial a comparison as Hartsock and Harris: Carlino and Winder vs. Pangos and Bell.
This game certainly could swing the Cougars way, but I just don't think BYU has the horses right now to contend with a resolute Zags squad out to avenge their loss of regular season conference supremacy. 11 years in a row, they were on top of the conference standings. This year they aren't. They'll be out for blood, unfortunately for BYU. Gonzaga 68, BYU 62.
As far as the teams: Gonzaga is a bit less diverse offensively than BYU is when at full-strength. However, BYU isn't at full strength with Hartsock's knee injury and sharp-shooter Stephen Rogers never really recovering from mid-season surgery. Gonzaga shoots the ball with a higher percentage, but BYU scores more points, mostly a result of combining their fast pace with offensive rebounding and sharing the basketball. Gonzaga tightens the screws down in their halfcourt defense a lot better than BYU. They really prefer a nice slow, halfcourt, out-execute you type of game.
San Diego didn't really challenge Hartsock on the defensive end very much. Gonzaga will go right at him. Elias Harris scored 19 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the meeting in Spokane without Hartsock, so Harris will look to be aggressive and test Hartsock's knee, and try to force BYU into more zone defense than they would like to play, which opens up their catch-and-shoot guards. Harris can also more aggressively guard Hartsock on the defensive end than USD, as he won't have to fear Hartsock taking him off the dribble because of the large athleticism (and health) advantage Harris has. If Harris neutralizes Hartsock it's game over, unless someone else can step up. One thing is for sure: BYU can't use Zylstra at the 4 for too long on Saturday night: Harris will absolutely eat him up.
After a 12-point performance tonight giving him back-to-back double-figure games, perhaps that man to step up is Brock Zylstra? No. Not a chance. As I highlighted earlier in the week, he has shot 23% from the field, 9% from three, in BYU's losses and didn't score in double figures in a game against any team in the RPI top 100, except for Weber State at home in early December.
Actually, I think the most likely candidate to have a chance at a big night is Anson Winder. Gonzaga had to see how Carlino failed to handle the pressure tonight and try to give him all they can, but they don't really have the guards to pester him for 40 minutes (Marquise Carter COULD but he's such a liability on the offensive end...), so he will likely see some double teams or traps. They will not leave Davies or Hartsock, which leaves Zylstra, Abouo, and Winder as the open guys (and I don't think Abouo's head is right for some reason right now). Winder struggled tonight, going 1-5 from the field. But he's from Vegas and he'll probably feel more comfortable on Saturday. I think perhaps the nerves of playing in front of friends and family for the first time this season were certainly there, and those will be gone the second time around on Saturday night. Usually in these tournament type settings, a guy has a big night one night and doesn't the next, a guy has a poor night shooting and responds with a great night on Day Two. Winder is that X-Factor guy that can give BYU that kind of night. Well, only if BYU is serious about winning.
Gonzaga wisely chose to schedule a meaningless blowout win on Monday night. With the bye and a week between games, it's good for them to get a little bit of a tune-up the week of the tournament. This isn't their first rodeo. Mark Few knows how to best handle his team in this scenario. His team will be prepared and they will be rested. But, on the flip side, they start a few freshmen and bring a few sophomores off the bench. How will those guys respond in their first tournament game? Thus far, the WCC tournament has shown some stellar performances by freshmen and some reasonably lousy ones. If Pangos and Bell come out of the gate swinging, if Dower and Stockton come off the bench and play beyond their years, BYU has their hands full. If one or two, or all, of those guys struggle to find their footing in their first taste of elimination basketball, BYU could jump out early and make it a struggle for the Zags to keep up with their pace and ability to score.
Ultimately, the matchup Gonzaga wants to exploit is Harris-Hartsock. BYU doesn't really have an offense where they can exploit any mismatches except Carlino and the post players. Gonzaga doesn't really have anyone that can guard Abouo, but he's shown such a lack of discipline and a propensity to get in foul trouble, it's tough to COUNT on exploiting his matchup. The one I look to see is Hartsock. Can he guard Harris so BYU can stay in the man-to-man longer against Gonzaga? Can he score on Harris and be a valid scoring option for at least 20 minutes? I like his heart and toughness. But he's clearly playing hurt and, man, Harris dominated the game in Spokane. If Hartsock was 100%, I'd like BYU's chances, but he's not and I don't. BYU's freshmen don't seem to have as much poise as Gonzaga's, and, even with the one-game advantage in terms of tournament experience, that may prove to be as crucial a comparison as Hartsock and Harris: Carlino and Winder vs. Pangos and Bell.
This game certainly could swing the Cougars way, but I just don't think BYU has the horses right now to contend with a resolute Zags squad out to avenge their loss of regular season conference supremacy. 11 years in a row, they were on top of the conference standings. This year they aren't. They'll be out for blood, unfortunately for BYU. Gonzaga 68, BYU 62.
Sometimes, Survival Is Enough: BYU 73, USD 68
I think BYU fans got a glimpse of what their team can be like during NCAA Tournament play against San Diego on Friday night. And it wasn't always pretty. Carlino couldn't handle the continued high pressure defense applied by San Diego. Davies couldn't buy a free throw down the stretch. The bench (not counting Noah Hartsock who came off the bench due to his injury), in spite of massive foul trouble from three starters, didn't give BYU anything. Those are recipes for disaster. However, BYU avoided that disaster against what should have been an out-manned San Diego team. Sometimes, that's really what it's all about in conference tournaments: survive and advance.
In Carlino's defense, even the great Jimmer Fredette took 2.5 seasons to really adjust to constant, and extremely high, pressure defenses. It's the reason BYU hadn't gone to the Sweet Sixteen in 30 years: they've never had guards that could handle that. Guys have bad games at the free throw line and Davies is a much improved Free Throw shooter this season but he's still not great, so it isn't that surprising that he has a poor night from the line in a tight game against a desperate opponent. I think he felt he should have shot more free throws throughout the course of the game, which may have added to his frustration and lack of success. The bench has been a reasonably weak spot since Rogers went down. Cusick logged a lot of minutes tonight, without really impacting the game positively. Nate Austin gave a few quality minutes, grabbed an offensive rebound and put it back in, and had several assists, but had no impact on the defensive side of the ball, which is why he only played a dozen or so minutes. The bench logged a few minutes from other players, but those were extremely brief cameos by Stephen Rogers and Josh Sharp.
Again, they survived their first taste of tournament play, and maybe that will help them Saturday against Gonzaga...having a game under their belts seemed to help San Francisco today (which upset Loyola Marymount) and also San Diego which kept pace with BYU for all 40 minutes.
Hartsock was extremely efficient, grabbing 5 rebounds, getting two huge blocks in the second half with Davies sitting out in foul trouble, going 8-13 from the field, and hitting two game-clinching free throws with 6 seconds left. Zylstra came out on fire, and faded in the second half, much like we saw from Jackson Emery in tournament play last season. Davies was a man on the offensive end but didn't play well on defense the entire night. I think the post defense will be a critical component against Gonzaga on Saturday. The somewhat shoddy officiating on Friday may actually help BYU on Saturday: Carlino, Davies, and Abouo missed significant minutes because of foul trouble, so they may not be as tired. Perhaps BYU will find similar magic on Friday as the other (supposed-to-be more tired) teams on Friday: hardened by having already played an elimination game. They will need some magic, because a repeat performance of Friday night will send them home Saturday night.
In Carlino's defense, even the great Jimmer Fredette took 2.5 seasons to really adjust to constant, and extremely high, pressure defenses. It's the reason BYU hadn't gone to the Sweet Sixteen in 30 years: they've never had guards that could handle that. Guys have bad games at the free throw line and Davies is a much improved Free Throw shooter this season but he's still not great, so it isn't that surprising that he has a poor night from the line in a tight game against a desperate opponent. I think he felt he should have shot more free throws throughout the course of the game, which may have added to his frustration and lack of success. The bench has been a reasonably weak spot since Rogers went down. Cusick logged a lot of minutes tonight, without really impacting the game positively. Nate Austin gave a few quality minutes, grabbed an offensive rebound and put it back in, and had several assists, but had no impact on the defensive side of the ball, which is why he only played a dozen or so minutes. The bench logged a few minutes from other players, but those were extremely brief cameos by Stephen Rogers and Josh Sharp.
Again, they survived their first taste of tournament play, and maybe that will help them Saturday against Gonzaga...having a game under their belts seemed to help San Francisco today (which upset Loyola Marymount) and also San Diego which kept pace with BYU for all 40 minutes.
Hartsock was extremely efficient, grabbing 5 rebounds, getting two huge blocks in the second half with Davies sitting out in foul trouble, going 8-13 from the field, and hitting two game-clinching free throws with 6 seconds left. Zylstra came out on fire, and faded in the second half, much like we saw from Jackson Emery in tournament play last season. Davies was a man on the offensive end but didn't play well on defense the entire night. I think the post defense will be a critical component against Gonzaga on Saturday. The somewhat shoddy officiating on Friday may actually help BYU on Saturday: Carlino, Davies, and Abouo missed significant minutes because of foul trouble, so they may not be as tired. Perhaps BYU will find similar magic on Friday as the other (supposed-to-be more tired) teams on Friday: hardened by having already played an elimination game. They will need some magic, because a repeat performance of Friday night will send them home Saturday night.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Mo's Bubble 2/26/2012
Well, the bubble actually had a lot of movement this week without any change. I thought certain teams would be eliminated by certain losses, until every other team seemed to lose or the team that lost picked up a big win later in the week. My previous "locks" haven't changed, with two exceptions (addition of Bama and removal of slumping West Virginia). I do not believe these teams are infallible and not capable of losing their way out of this, however, I suspect that their past results and my expectations for their future will give the Committee enough of a reason to get them in, even if they don't necessarily "deserve" it (looking at you Seton Hall and Cincinnati!). In case you missed it, here they are:
21 bids from the 20 worst conferences (I assume that either Long Beach State or Murray State will probably fail to win their conference tournament but get an at-large bid. I hope the same for Iona and Oral Roberts but do not believe the Committee will seriously consider them as at-large candidates)
A10 (2 bids): Temple and Saint Louis (in spite of a bad loss by St. Louis over the weekend)
ACC (4 bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia
Big XII (5 bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas State
Big East (7 bids): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Seton Hall
Big Ten (6 bids): Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Purdue
Conference USA (2 bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis
Missouri Valley (2 bids): Wichita State and Creighton
Mountain West (3 bids): San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico
Pac 12 (1 bid): California
SEC (5 bids): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Alabama*
West Coast (3 bids): Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, and BYU
*New team to join the "locks"
-West Virginia's 0-2 week, with a blowout loss to ND, puts them back on the bubble. In locking teams in, I have to make some assumptions about future performance and I thought, for sure, WVU would win at least one of those games.
61 bids taken, leaving 7 more to take. The teams on my list of potential at-large candidates are: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
Xavier lost at UMass and beat Richmond: HOLDING
St. Joe's lost to Richmond and beat Temple: BACKPEDDLING
UMass beat Xavier and lost at Dayton: OUT
Miami lost at Maryland and beat FSU: HOLDING
NC State lost to UNC and at Clemson: FALLING
West Virginia lost at ND and to Marquette: BACK ON BUBBLE
South Florida lost at Syracuse and beat Cincinnati: RISING
Connecticut won at Villanova and lost to Syracuse: HOLDING
Northwestern lost to Michigan and won at Penn State: BACKPEDDLING
Minnesota lost to Michigan State and to Indiana: FALLING
Illinois lost at Ohio State and beat Iowa: FALLING
Texas lost to Baylor and won at Texas Tech: FALLING
UCF lost at Rice and beat UTEP: FALLING
Colorado State beat New Mexico and lost at SDSU: HOLDING
Oregon won at Oregon State: CALL IT HOLDING
Arizona beat USC and UCLA: RISING
Washington won at Washington State: CALL IT NOT FALLING
Colorado lost to Stanford and beat California: FALLING, THEN RISING
As you can see, the teams aren't doing a nice job of separating themselves. Connecticut was an OT win at Nova away from falling towards the bottom, South Florida eked out a one-point win over Cincy at home to join the discussion, Texas needed OT to beat Texas Tech. Arizona was the only team from this bunch that won twice last week.
My last 7 teams in right now are: Arizona, Xavier, South Florida, West Virginia, Washington, Texas, and Miami. However, I think ultimately one of the Big East teams, Texas, and Miami will NOT make the tournament. Maybe we'll get "lucky" and see a few upsets in conference tournaments and just get rid of some at-large bids. I don't feel confident moving any of the other bubble teams into the tournament right now. I am guessing that Connecticut probably gets in eventually since they will win their final two games and end up opposite Seton Hall or a tired/thin West Virginia team in their first game of the Big East tourney (i.e. three wins from now UConn makes the field). The Pac 12 Tourney could easily be won by Oregon, Colorado, or UCLA which would take that final bid.
Important Bubble Games this week (chronological order):
Xavier at St. Louis
UCF at Memphis
Ohio State at Northwestern
UNLV at Colorado State
South Florida at Louisville
St. Joe's at St. Bonaventure
Miami at NC State
Michigan at Illinois
Colorado at Oregon
West Virginia at South Florida
Washington at UCLA
Yale at Penn (I personally don't think Harvard gets an at-large for similar reasons that I don't think CSU gets theirs, i.e. lack of quality wins, but bubble teams want to see Yale knock off Penn to give Harvard the auto-bid, just in case)
21 bids from the 20 worst conferences (I assume that either Long Beach State or Murray State will probably fail to win their conference tournament but get an at-large bid. I hope the same for Iona and Oral Roberts but do not believe the Committee will seriously consider them as at-large candidates)
A10 (2 bids): Temple and Saint Louis (in spite of a bad loss by St. Louis over the weekend)
ACC (4 bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia
Big XII (5 bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas State
Big East (7 bids): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Seton Hall
Big Ten (6 bids): Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Purdue
Conference USA (2 bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis
Missouri Valley (2 bids): Wichita State and Creighton
Mountain West (3 bids): San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico
Pac 12 (1 bid): California
SEC (5 bids): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Alabama*
West Coast (3 bids): Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, and BYU
*New team to join the "locks"
-West Virginia's 0-2 week, with a blowout loss to ND, puts them back on the bubble. In locking teams in, I have to make some assumptions about future performance and I thought, for sure, WVU would win at least one of those games.
61 bids taken, leaving 7 more to take. The teams on my list of potential at-large candidates are: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
Xavier lost at UMass and beat Richmond: HOLDING
St. Joe's lost to Richmond and beat Temple: BACKPEDDLING
UMass beat Xavier and lost at Dayton: OUT
Miami lost at Maryland and beat FSU: HOLDING
NC State lost to UNC and at Clemson: FALLING
West Virginia lost at ND and to Marquette: BACK ON BUBBLE
South Florida lost at Syracuse and beat Cincinnati: RISING
Connecticut won at Villanova and lost to Syracuse: HOLDING
Northwestern lost to Michigan and won at Penn State: BACKPEDDLING
Minnesota lost to Michigan State and to Indiana: FALLING
Illinois lost at Ohio State and beat Iowa: FALLING
Texas lost to Baylor and won at Texas Tech: FALLING
UCF lost at Rice and beat UTEP: FALLING
Colorado State beat New Mexico and lost at SDSU: HOLDING
Oregon won at Oregon State: CALL IT HOLDING
Arizona beat USC and UCLA: RISING
Washington won at Washington State: CALL IT NOT FALLING
Colorado lost to Stanford and beat California: FALLING, THEN RISING
As you can see, the teams aren't doing a nice job of separating themselves. Connecticut was an OT win at Nova away from falling towards the bottom, South Florida eked out a one-point win over Cincy at home to join the discussion, Texas needed OT to beat Texas Tech. Arizona was the only team from this bunch that won twice last week.
My last 7 teams in right now are: Arizona, Xavier, South Florida, West Virginia, Washington, Texas, and Miami. However, I think ultimately one of the Big East teams, Texas, and Miami will NOT make the tournament. Maybe we'll get "lucky" and see a few upsets in conference tournaments and just get rid of some at-large bids. I don't feel confident moving any of the other bubble teams into the tournament right now. I am guessing that Connecticut probably gets in eventually since they will win their final two games and end up opposite Seton Hall or a tired/thin West Virginia team in their first game of the Big East tourney (i.e. three wins from now UConn makes the field). The Pac 12 Tourney could easily be won by Oregon, Colorado, or UCLA which would take that final bid.
Important Bubble Games this week (chronological order):
Xavier at St. Louis
UCF at Memphis
Ohio State at Northwestern
UNLV at Colorado State
South Florida at Louisville
St. Joe's at St. Bonaventure
Miami at NC State
Michigan at Illinois
Colorado at Oregon
West Virginia at South Florida
Washington at UCLA
Yale at Penn (I personally don't think Harvard gets an at-large for similar reasons that I don't think CSU gets theirs, i.e. lack of quality wins, but bubble teams want to see Yale knock off Penn to give Harvard the auto-bid, just in case)
BYU 2011-2012 Regular Season In Review
BYU went 24-7 overall, 12-4 in conference play, with 2 of those wins coming against Division II competition (so for RPI purposes, BYU is 22-7). This was destined to be a rebuilding year with so many newcomers to the roster. When put in that context, 24-7 and 12-4 are not bad marks. However, after back-to-back 30 win seasons, there is a bit of a damper on a 24-win season (for BYU to win 30 before the season ends they would need to win the WCC Tourney and advance to the Elite 8). Here is what I saw from this team.
THE PLAYERS
Seniors
Hartsock was the biggest revelation this season, scoring an additional 7 points per game this season compared to last. Abouo improved his statistics across the board, though his impact seemed to have lessened, if that's possible. It seems like last season, he was the difference in a couple of games with his athleticism and his ability to finish around the rim. This year, the times he was the difference in a game it was a "bad" difference.
As far as senior leadership, this was a mixed bag. BYU would not be 24-7 without Hartsock's emergence and dependibility. No where was that more evident than at Gonzaga. Game in Provo, Noah had 24 points and 14 rebounds, while holding Elias Harris to 7 points and 6 rebounds. Game at the Kennel, without Noah, Elias Harris goes for 19 points and 16 rebounds. In Provo with Hartsock, BYU shot 49%. In Spokane without Hartsock, BYU shot 31%.
Imagine how much more depth this BYU team would have if James Anderson had returned for his redshirt senior season. He certainly wasn't going to wow anyone, but he was a solid defender and this team could use another body in the post. The loss at Gonzaga was really b/c BYU had no BODY in the middle with Hartsock out and Davies and Austin in a bit of foul trouble.
Juniors
The juniors this season were Davies, Cusick, Zylstra, Rogers, and Martineau. Davies, when he has the eye of the tiger, has been virtually unstoppable. It took him a little while to acclimate to the team. He needed a couple of big environments to get going, but when he did, he couldn't really be contained. He scored in double figures 18 of the last 19 games, going for 20+ in 7 of those 18, including each of the last three games, when BYU needed wins to have a chance for the conference title. He had 7 double-digit rebounding games. He led the team in charges taken. He had 3 or more combined blocks and steals in 16 games. His four worst offensive games of the year were all BYU blowout wins. Davies was a man. BYU will need his production this postseason and next season as well.
Cusick has been a bit hit and miss. He valued the ball, never turning the ball over more than twice in a game. He went 9-10 from three over a 6-game stretch of conference play and, for the season, was BYU's best 3-point shooter. He didn't turn it over and he didn't take bad shots, but never made great plays: so he was the anti-Carlino. He played good defense, particularly as the "off-guard" on top of the 2-3 zone. I don't anticipate much change in his role next season. He'll quietly give BYU a solid effort.
Zylstra is BYU's ultimate church ball player. He scored in double figures 8 times. In 8 blowout wins. In BYU's 7 losses, he scored a combined 22 points on 23% shooting and 9% from three. One could argue both sides: when he plays well, BYU dominates, when he plays poorly, BYU loses; or in games where BYU needed Zylstra, he sucked. I would argue the latter: when the bright lights are on, he has oversensitive eyes. BYU can't count on Zylstra another game this season, because they are all big games from here on out. If he scores 10 points again, I'd be shocked. They need someone else to step up or else BYU will lose and lose quickly.
Stephen Rogers has been out so much of this year, it's just unfortunate. When he was healthy, early in the year, he was a big contributor to the team, going for 15 or more points in 4 out of 10 games, coming off the bench! I truly believe his absence was the difference in the Baylor game. If he had been healthy, this rebuilding year would have looked more like a reloading year. Baylor, Loyola Marymount, or at Gonzaga easily could have flipped results, and if BYU were 27-4, they'd be looking at around a 5-seed in the tourney, instead of possibly playing against a 5-seed. Hopefully he can get healthy in the offseason and have a chance to be a leader on next year's team, otherwise, BYU fans will be stuck with Zylstra.
Martineau has played sparingly his entire career, and this year was no different. I don't suspect much will be different next year either.
Sophomores
Well, this list consists of Chris Collinsworth. He played 12 minutes in two games before a second consecutive season-ending injury. Too bad for him.
Freshmen
Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, Nate Austin, Damarcus Harrison, and Josh Sharp are the active freshmen on the roster. Carlino and Winder were obviously starters, which shows just how much of a rebuilding year this was to have two freshmen in the starting lineup playing such significant roles. Carlino makes the big plays, he has the drive to be a champion, but sometimes makes mistakes. When he gets that killer instinct, he can make plays. He reminds me a lot of Jimmer when he was a freshman. If Carlino hangs around four years, he very well could be the next Jimmer in some form. He has a long way to go, but so did Jimmer as a frosh. One thing they have in common from their freshman campaigns: they look like they belong.
Winder is a typically inconsistent freshman, who is occasionally plagued by foul trouble and who only gets rolling offensively when he hits his first shot. He is a great defender however, and BYU will need defense more than offense going forward in the WCC and, hopefully, NCAA Tournaments.
Nate Austin gave BYU a much-needed big man after Collinsworth went down. Coach Rose had to be concerned, but Austin has played solid defensively, I would say by far BYU's most physical presence on defense, though he also has fouled out of way too many games, way too early (he has fouled out of 5 games without reaching the 20-minute mark). He's also shown some range, though he had a few occasional issues in shot selection. But hey, for an unheralded freshman backup C straight off a mission to shoot 56% isn't bad, even if that's 5-9! I don't anticipate he'll fill in for Hartsock fully next year, but between Austin, Sharp, Rogers, and Harward there's potential to match the points and rebounds of a Hartsock.
Harrison never saw a shot he didn't like, but his 33% shooting indicates the rim doesn't return the affection. He clearly has athleticism and plays good defense for a true frosh right out of high school. His minutes have actually INCREASED in big games because of that. If he could withstand the urge to shoot, he could have been a real asset for the team this year. But he couldn't really be trusted to just focus on the defensive end without taking shots on the offensive side. I think if he had a pass-first mentality this year, his minutes, and usefulness, would have increased dramatically. There's definitely the potential there for a WCC Defensive Player of the Year by his junior year.
Sharp just needed some more time between the mission and guarding Elias Harris. Well, and about 30 pounds. If he hits the weights and figures out how to get coordinated, he could see significantly more playing time next season. Honestly though, I don't expect much from him in the future. I see him as the Nick Martineau of this freshman class: not quite good enough to see the floor but not quite so bad that fans get too stressed if he has to play in a pinch.
THE TEAM
I don't recall if I actually posted on this blog or not, but at work we do predictions for out teams and I had that BYU would finish at 25-6. Really, the only losses I didn't anticipate in some fashion were losing to Baylor, Saint Mary's, and Loyola Marymount at home. I figured BYU would win two of those and drop a road game, either at Loyola or San Francisco. I thought BYU would finish 13-3 in conference play and finish second. Again with the Loyola Marymount and Saint Mary's games.
I realize my expectations were probably a little high for a rebuilding year. However, the fact that they nearly met them is a testament to the good work of Coach Rose. He had to battle offseason changes in the coaching staff for the first time in his tenure (and clearly Dave Rice was a great coach, seeing what he has done with UNLV this year), significant injuries to significant players, a mid-season transfer, and a new conference schedule (and refs). He went 6-1 in February, including 3 road wins. He won 11 games away from the Marriott Center including BYU's first ever win at an ACC opponent. He took on 5 teams from "Big Six" conferences, 4 away from home, and went 3-2. He destroyed the likely WAC and Big Sky regular season champs. It wasn't a great schedule, by any means, but in a rebuilding year, he took on a decent schedule and came out with a team that by most accounts will make the NCAA Tournament and could potentially threaten certain 5/6 seeds.
THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
The three losses at home have got to be first on the list. The Marriott Center has been a nearly impregnable fortress, so to lose three has got to be a major disappointment. Finishing third in the WCC is also right up there (though that is tied in with the three home losses). Finally, the loss at Utah State, who ended up being a mediocre team from a mediocre conference. Granted, at the time, the Aggies appeared to be formidable. It was on the road in the first game of the season against an in-state rival. BUT...those are the games BYU needs to win to move to that next level. And, in fact, it is probably the biggest obstacle BYU has to making the NCAA Tournament.
THE HIGHS
To me, there were only a few games that showed me how good this particular BYU team can be. The first was actually the loss to Gonzaga. I do not believe in moral victories by any means, however, BYU played in one of the most difficult venues in the country, against a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team with a shot at a conference title on the line. They did so without the services of their leading scorer Noah Hartsock (which came as a bit of a surprise to the team as he attempted to give it a go). They were already down once-upon-a-November's 6th man Stephen Rogers. They shot 31% overall and 21% from three. Yet, they were a Brock Zylstra WIDE OPEN missed three with about 3 minutes left from cutting the lead to 4 and having a legitimate shot at pulling it off with all the momentum on their side. That was a high for me, actually. It means that this team can compete with solid competition, even when not playing its best ball.
Obviously, the home win against Gonzaga was big too. A first-ever win at an ACC school, albeit a somewhat weak Virginia Tech team, was important for program credibility (a loss there and BYU is wondering if they'll get a 1 or a 2 seed in the NIT and not an 11/12 seed in the NCAA Tournament). Really though, that was about it. Who knew that the wins against Nevada and Oregon would end up being the 2nd and 3rd best wins BYU would have all season long.
Good year. I expect even bigger things next season though!
THE PLAYERS
Seniors
Hartsock was the biggest revelation this season, scoring an additional 7 points per game this season compared to last. Abouo improved his statistics across the board, though his impact seemed to have lessened, if that's possible. It seems like last season, he was the difference in a couple of games with his athleticism and his ability to finish around the rim. This year, the times he was the difference in a game it was a "bad" difference.
As far as senior leadership, this was a mixed bag. BYU would not be 24-7 without Hartsock's emergence and dependibility. No where was that more evident than at Gonzaga. Game in Provo, Noah had 24 points and 14 rebounds, while holding Elias Harris to 7 points and 6 rebounds. Game at the Kennel, without Noah, Elias Harris goes for 19 points and 16 rebounds. In Provo with Hartsock, BYU shot 49%. In Spokane without Hartsock, BYU shot 31%.
Imagine how much more depth this BYU team would have if James Anderson had returned for his redshirt senior season. He certainly wasn't going to wow anyone, but he was a solid defender and this team could use another body in the post. The loss at Gonzaga was really b/c BYU had no BODY in the middle with Hartsock out and Davies and Austin in a bit of foul trouble.
Juniors
The juniors this season were Davies, Cusick, Zylstra, Rogers, and Martineau. Davies, when he has the eye of the tiger, has been virtually unstoppable. It took him a little while to acclimate to the team. He needed a couple of big environments to get going, but when he did, he couldn't really be contained. He scored in double figures 18 of the last 19 games, going for 20+ in 7 of those 18, including each of the last three games, when BYU needed wins to have a chance for the conference title. He had 7 double-digit rebounding games. He led the team in charges taken. He had 3 or more combined blocks and steals in 16 games. His four worst offensive games of the year were all BYU blowout wins. Davies was a man. BYU will need his production this postseason and next season as well.
Cusick has been a bit hit and miss. He valued the ball, never turning the ball over more than twice in a game. He went 9-10 from three over a 6-game stretch of conference play and, for the season, was BYU's best 3-point shooter. He didn't turn it over and he didn't take bad shots, but never made great plays: so he was the anti-Carlino. He played good defense, particularly as the "off-guard" on top of the 2-3 zone. I don't anticipate much change in his role next season. He'll quietly give BYU a solid effort.
Zylstra is BYU's ultimate church ball player. He scored in double figures 8 times. In 8 blowout wins. In BYU's 7 losses, he scored a combined 22 points on 23% shooting and 9% from three. One could argue both sides: when he plays well, BYU dominates, when he plays poorly, BYU loses; or in games where BYU needed Zylstra, he sucked. I would argue the latter: when the bright lights are on, he has oversensitive eyes. BYU can't count on Zylstra another game this season, because they are all big games from here on out. If he scores 10 points again, I'd be shocked. They need someone else to step up or else BYU will lose and lose quickly.
Stephen Rogers has been out so much of this year, it's just unfortunate. When he was healthy, early in the year, he was a big contributor to the team, going for 15 or more points in 4 out of 10 games, coming off the bench! I truly believe his absence was the difference in the Baylor game. If he had been healthy, this rebuilding year would have looked more like a reloading year. Baylor, Loyola Marymount, or at Gonzaga easily could have flipped results, and if BYU were 27-4, they'd be looking at around a 5-seed in the tourney, instead of possibly playing against a 5-seed. Hopefully he can get healthy in the offseason and have a chance to be a leader on next year's team, otherwise, BYU fans will be stuck with Zylstra.
Martineau has played sparingly his entire career, and this year was no different. I don't suspect much will be different next year either.
Sophomores
Well, this list consists of Chris Collinsworth. He played 12 minutes in two games before a second consecutive season-ending injury. Too bad for him.
Freshmen
Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, Nate Austin, Damarcus Harrison, and Josh Sharp are the active freshmen on the roster. Carlino and Winder were obviously starters, which shows just how much of a rebuilding year this was to have two freshmen in the starting lineup playing such significant roles. Carlino makes the big plays, he has the drive to be a champion, but sometimes makes mistakes. When he gets that killer instinct, he can make plays. He reminds me a lot of Jimmer when he was a freshman. If Carlino hangs around four years, he very well could be the next Jimmer in some form. He has a long way to go, but so did Jimmer as a frosh. One thing they have in common from their freshman campaigns: they look like they belong.
Winder is a typically inconsistent freshman, who is occasionally plagued by foul trouble and who only gets rolling offensively when he hits his first shot. He is a great defender however, and BYU will need defense more than offense going forward in the WCC and, hopefully, NCAA Tournaments.
Nate Austin gave BYU a much-needed big man after Collinsworth went down. Coach Rose had to be concerned, but Austin has played solid defensively, I would say by far BYU's most physical presence on defense, though he also has fouled out of way too many games, way too early (he has fouled out of 5 games without reaching the 20-minute mark). He's also shown some range, though he had a few occasional issues in shot selection. But hey, for an unheralded freshman backup C straight off a mission to shoot 56% isn't bad, even if that's 5-9! I don't anticipate he'll fill in for Hartsock fully next year, but between Austin, Sharp, Rogers, and Harward there's potential to match the points and rebounds of a Hartsock.
Harrison never saw a shot he didn't like, but his 33% shooting indicates the rim doesn't return the affection. He clearly has athleticism and plays good defense for a true frosh right out of high school. His minutes have actually INCREASED in big games because of that. If he could withstand the urge to shoot, he could have been a real asset for the team this year. But he couldn't really be trusted to just focus on the defensive end without taking shots on the offensive side. I think if he had a pass-first mentality this year, his minutes, and usefulness, would have increased dramatically. There's definitely the potential there for a WCC Defensive Player of the Year by his junior year.
Sharp just needed some more time between the mission and guarding Elias Harris. Well, and about 30 pounds. If he hits the weights and figures out how to get coordinated, he could see significantly more playing time next season. Honestly though, I don't expect much from him in the future. I see him as the Nick Martineau of this freshman class: not quite good enough to see the floor but not quite so bad that fans get too stressed if he has to play in a pinch.
THE TEAM
I don't recall if I actually posted on this blog or not, but at work we do predictions for out teams and I had that BYU would finish at 25-6. Really, the only losses I didn't anticipate in some fashion were losing to Baylor, Saint Mary's, and Loyola Marymount at home. I figured BYU would win two of those and drop a road game, either at Loyola or San Francisco. I thought BYU would finish 13-3 in conference play and finish second. Again with the Loyola Marymount and Saint Mary's games.
I realize my expectations were probably a little high for a rebuilding year. However, the fact that they nearly met them is a testament to the good work of Coach Rose. He had to battle offseason changes in the coaching staff for the first time in his tenure (and clearly Dave Rice was a great coach, seeing what he has done with UNLV this year), significant injuries to significant players, a mid-season transfer, and a new conference schedule (and refs). He went 6-1 in February, including 3 road wins. He won 11 games away from the Marriott Center including BYU's first ever win at an ACC opponent. He took on 5 teams from "Big Six" conferences, 4 away from home, and went 3-2. He destroyed the likely WAC and Big Sky regular season champs. It wasn't a great schedule, by any means, but in a rebuilding year, he took on a decent schedule and came out with a team that by most accounts will make the NCAA Tournament and could potentially threaten certain 5/6 seeds.
THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
The three losses at home have got to be first on the list. The Marriott Center has been a nearly impregnable fortress, so to lose three has got to be a major disappointment. Finishing third in the WCC is also right up there (though that is tied in with the three home losses). Finally, the loss at Utah State, who ended up being a mediocre team from a mediocre conference. Granted, at the time, the Aggies appeared to be formidable. It was on the road in the first game of the season against an in-state rival. BUT...those are the games BYU needs to win to move to that next level. And, in fact, it is probably the biggest obstacle BYU has to making the NCAA Tournament.
THE HIGHS
To me, there were only a few games that showed me how good this particular BYU team can be. The first was actually the loss to Gonzaga. I do not believe in moral victories by any means, however, BYU played in one of the most difficult venues in the country, against a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team with a shot at a conference title on the line. They did so without the services of their leading scorer Noah Hartsock (which came as a bit of a surprise to the team as he attempted to give it a go). They were already down once-upon-a-November's 6th man Stephen Rogers. They shot 31% overall and 21% from three. Yet, they were a Brock Zylstra WIDE OPEN missed three with about 3 minutes left from cutting the lead to 4 and having a legitimate shot at pulling it off with all the momentum on their side. That was a high for me, actually. It means that this team can compete with solid competition, even when not playing its best ball.
Obviously, the home win against Gonzaga was big too. A first-ever win at an ACC school, albeit a somewhat weak Virginia Tech team, was important for program credibility (a loss there and BYU is wondering if they'll get a 1 or a 2 seed in the NIT and not an 11/12 seed in the NCAA Tournament). Really though, that was about it. Who knew that the wins against Nevada and Oregon would end up being the 2nd and 3rd best wins BYU would have all season long.
Good year. I expect even bigger things next season though!
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Oh, Lunardi...
Last year was the MWC's strongest season ever, with three teams in the dance, all single digit seeds, with two of them advancing to the Sweet 16. This year, the league is pretty good with three NCAA Tournament caliber teams. BYU and Utah have obviously left the league, which kind of hurt the MWC. Other teams have emerged this year and Utah is awful, so the league is in good shape, but it's not like last season. CSU, which currently sits in a tie for 4th place in the standings, is considered an NCAA Tournament bubble team. After a big win at home against New Mexico on Tuesday night, Lunardi threw them as the last team into his field of 68.
That's a nice story. Now, let's look at a few facts about CSU and then some MWC history. One, CSU has only 2 wins over the RPI top 50. Two, CSU has only 2 road wins, and both are outside the RPI top 100. Three, CSU has 3 losses outside the RPI top 100. That doesn't scream NCAA Tournament team to anyone.
Now the MWC history: no MWC team has ever got into the tournament via at-large bid with 9 losses. CSU is currently 17-9. The worst MWC team to ever get an at-large bid was the 2011 UNLV Rebels at 24-8, which had made the tournament 3 of the prior 4 seasons and advanced to the Sweet 16 once in that span. They had a coach that had been to a Final Four and had led four different teams to the NCAA Tournament. In 2009, legendary coach Steve Fischer and the SDSU Aztecs were 23-9: no bid. In 2008, Big Ten legend Steve Alford and the New Mexico Lobos were 24-8: no bid. They actually set a record that year for being the team with the highest RPI to ever miss the NCAA Tournament. CSU hasn't been to the tournament since 2003. Their coach hasn't ever coached in the NCAA Tournament. What are the odds that THIS team breaks a long-standing trend?
If CSU needs an at-large bid, it means they didn't win the MWC Tourney, which means the best record they could possibly have is 22-10, and that assumes wins at SDSU, home against UNLV, and two in the conference tournament, likely against TCU and New Mexico. It's a nice story. I love Tim Miles, he's a great guy. But an MWC team with double digit losses is going to the NIT. CSU will have a chance to make some serious noise there, however. And with 6 significant contributors returning next season, 2012-2013 might be the year for the Rams to make the NCAA Tournament. If they can rattle off 5 straight wins, I'll be willing to put them back in the discussion, but for now, they are a fringe team at best. RPI is only one criteria and it's the only one even close to putting CSU in the discussion here. Look at everything the Committee looks at. Look at the history. Sorry, Rams...
That's a nice story. Now, let's look at a few facts about CSU and then some MWC history. One, CSU has only 2 wins over the RPI top 50. Two, CSU has only 2 road wins, and both are outside the RPI top 100. Three, CSU has 3 losses outside the RPI top 100. That doesn't scream NCAA Tournament team to anyone.
Now the MWC history: no MWC team has ever got into the tournament via at-large bid with 9 losses. CSU is currently 17-9. The worst MWC team to ever get an at-large bid was the 2011 UNLV Rebels at 24-8, which had made the tournament 3 of the prior 4 seasons and advanced to the Sweet 16 once in that span. They had a coach that had been to a Final Four and had led four different teams to the NCAA Tournament. In 2009, legendary coach Steve Fischer and the SDSU Aztecs were 23-9: no bid. In 2008, Big Ten legend Steve Alford and the New Mexico Lobos were 24-8: no bid. They actually set a record that year for being the team with the highest RPI to ever miss the NCAA Tournament. CSU hasn't been to the tournament since 2003. Their coach hasn't ever coached in the NCAA Tournament. What are the odds that THIS team breaks a long-standing trend?
If CSU needs an at-large bid, it means they didn't win the MWC Tourney, which means the best record they could possibly have is 22-10, and that assumes wins at SDSU, home against UNLV, and two in the conference tournament, likely against TCU and New Mexico. It's a nice story. I love Tim Miles, he's a great guy. But an MWC team with double digit losses is going to the NIT. CSU will have a chance to make some serious noise there, however. And with 6 significant contributors returning next season, 2012-2013 might be the year for the Rams to make the NCAA Tournament. If they can rattle off 5 straight wins, I'll be willing to put them back in the discussion, but for now, they are a fringe team at best. RPI is only one criteria and it's the only one even close to putting CSU in the discussion here. Look at everything the Committee looks at. Look at the history. Sorry, Rams...
Monday, February 20, 2012
The Week That Was For BYU
BYU brought home two more road victories this week, giving them 11 wins away from the Marriott Center, by winning at 5th place San Francisco and at last place Santa Clara. More importantly, they kept pace in the WCC race, which got a lot tighter with two upsets this week (Loyola Marymount beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga losing at San Francisco). They are now tied in second with Gonzaga, just one game behind suddenly struggling St. Mary's. The impressive part about this team is that it truly has been a team effort.
This week demonstrated that as much as any other. Carlino went off for 30 points, including hitting the game-winner with 18 seconds left at San Francisco. Davies and Hartsock follow that up with both going for 20 the next game at Santa Clara. Abouo pitched in double-digit scoring in both games. Zylstra added 12 at Santa Clara. Nate Austin scored a combined 12 off the bench while providing 35 minutes of much-needed rest to Davies and Hartsock.
While I don't necessarily enjoy Zylstra, this team has 8 guys that I would not have a problem seeing on the floor in a tight game. That doesn't appear to be particularly deep, but if you consider that Collinsworth and Rogers are both out with injuries, it means that the team started with 10 guys the fans could (mostly) trust. At point guard, Carlino is backed up by Cusick, who takes care of the ball and plays very good defense. At off-guard, Anson Winder is backed up by both Zylstra and Cusick. At the 3, Charles Abouo is backed up by Zylstra (and potentially Winder if BYU goes with a small lineup). At the 4/5 spots, Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are backed up by Nate Austin.
If Stephen Rogers returns to the fold, that is a pretty solid 9. If BYU wants to make any kind of serious run in March, it will certainly need Rogers' ability to stretch the floor on O, and be another potential body on D to the foul-prone Abouo, Davies, and Austin. Josh Sharp doesn't give BYU much on either side of the floor right now. Damarcus Harrison is a lot better on D right now than he is on O, but BYU doesn't need another guy off the bench to play D. In February, those guys can give you a half-dozen minutes in a pinch. In March, however, they can't give you anything. Maybe Harrison can help slow down a dangerous SG/SF if Winder or Abouo gets in foul trouble (provided he agrees not to shoot the ball on O), but that's it.
Anyway, BYU should make the tournament, regardless of the result against Gonzaga, so they are just playing for seeding at this point. With so many guys banged up, I wonder if that will result in some tentative play on Thursday. Hartsock took a nasty fall and was "scared" about his knee. How will that impact his aggressiveness against the Zags? A win would lock up the 2-seed and double-bye in the conference tournament, and it could give them a share of the conference title should St. Mary's trip up at San Francisco. A loss could potentially drop them down to 4th place and a quarterfinal rematch against surging San Francisco. However, with back-to-back road games scoring in the 80's, BYU should have the confidence to match up against anyone in the conference on a neutral floor.
This is an exciting time of year. BYU continues the same kind of dominance in February that it had in the MWC: they win all the games they should win. Next up comes their first real challenge of February. Given how the last two games against Gonzaga have played out (2011 NCAA Tourney and 2012 WCC Game), it will be interesting to see how BYU handles the road environment. Clearly, the Cougars are the type of team that Gonzaga struggles against. Will the home crowd help push the Zags over the hump or will the make-up of the BYU roster and their style of play continue to be too much for them?
Like I said, it's a fun time of year. I expect a good game on Thursday. I expect a tight, back-and-forth game and I anticipate BYU will be within striking distance in the final 4 minutes. Being that The Kennel is such a hostile environment, I anticipate the young guards to buckle under the pressure for a significant stretch at some point over the 40 minutes. That will prove to be too much to overcome and the Zags win about 74-68. The thing BYU has going for it: it plays much more efficient O than Gonzaga. If it comes down to a high-scoring shootout, BYU would seem to be the favorite. Zags keep it at about 145 points or less, Zags should get it. Zags get this one. (As if I would jinx the Cougars by picking them to win: that's a sure-fire sign of a blowout loss!)
This week demonstrated that as much as any other. Carlino went off for 30 points, including hitting the game-winner with 18 seconds left at San Francisco. Davies and Hartsock follow that up with both going for 20 the next game at Santa Clara. Abouo pitched in double-digit scoring in both games. Zylstra added 12 at Santa Clara. Nate Austin scored a combined 12 off the bench while providing 35 minutes of much-needed rest to Davies and Hartsock.
While I don't necessarily enjoy Zylstra, this team has 8 guys that I would not have a problem seeing on the floor in a tight game. That doesn't appear to be particularly deep, but if you consider that Collinsworth and Rogers are both out with injuries, it means that the team started with 10 guys the fans could (mostly) trust. At point guard, Carlino is backed up by Cusick, who takes care of the ball and plays very good defense. At off-guard, Anson Winder is backed up by both Zylstra and Cusick. At the 3, Charles Abouo is backed up by Zylstra (and potentially Winder if BYU goes with a small lineup). At the 4/5 spots, Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are backed up by Nate Austin.
If Stephen Rogers returns to the fold, that is a pretty solid 9. If BYU wants to make any kind of serious run in March, it will certainly need Rogers' ability to stretch the floor on O, and be another potential body on D to the foul-prone Abouo, Davies, and Austin. Josh Sharp doesn't give BYU much on either side of the floor right now. Damarcus Harrison is a lot better on D right now than he is on O, but BYU doesn't need another guy off the bench to play D. In February, those guys can give you a half-dozen minutes in a pinch. In March, however, they can't give you anything. Maybe Harrison can help slow down a dangerous SG/SF if Winder or Abouo gets in foul trouble (provided he agrees not to shoot the ball on O), but that's it.
Anyway, BYU should make the tournament, regardless of the result against Gonzaga, so they are just playing for seeding at this point. With so many guys banged up, I wonder if that will result in some tentative play on Thursday. Hartsock took a nasty fall and was "scared" about his knee. How will that impact his aggressiveness against the Zags? A win would lock up the 2-seed and double-bye in the conference tournament, and it could give them a share of the conference title should St. Mary's trip up at San Francisco. A loss could potentially drop them down to 4th place and a quarterfinal rematch against surging San Francisco. However, with back-to-back road games scoring in the 80's, BYU should have the confidence to match up against anyone in the conference on a neutral floor.
This is an exciting time of year. BYU continues the same kind of dominance in February that it had in the MWC: they win all the games they should win. Next up comes their first real challenge of February. Given how the last two games against Gonzaga have played out (2011 NCAA Tourney and 2012 WCC Game), it will be interesting to see how BYU handles the road environment. Clearly, the Cougars are the type of team that Gonzaga struggles against. Will the home crowd help push the Zags over the hump or will the make-up of the BYU roster and their style of play continue to be too much for them?
Like I said, it's a fun time of year. I expect a good game on Thursday. I expect a tight, back-and-forth game and I anticipate BYU will be within striking distance in the final 4 minutes. Being that The Kennel is such a hostile environment, I anticipate the young guards to buckle under the pressure for a significant stretch at some point over the 40 minutes. That will prove to be too much to overcome and the Zags win about 74-68. The thing BYU has going for it: it plays much more efficient O than Gonzaga. If it comes down to a high-scoring shootout, BYU would seem to be the favorite. Zags keep it at about 145 points or less, Zags should get it. Zags get this one. (As if I would jinx the Cougars by picking them to win: that's a sure-fire sign of a blowout loss!)
Significant Movement in Mo's Field
I listed 10 guaranteed 1-Bid Leagues last week, however, this week, I'm ready to go ahead and stomp my foot down on a few others. So there are 16 conferences that will only send one team to the NCAA Tournament. Period. Last week, I had these 10: America East, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, and SWAC. This week, I'm willing to concede that Atlantic Sun, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, Sun Belt, and WAC will be one-bid leagues.
Belmont (Atlantic Sun) has an RPI in the 70's and they are without a top 100 game on the remainder of their schedule, so that won't improve. Cleveland State got drubbed at home by Drexel in Bracketbusters and that eliminated any chance for an at-large. Harvard beat Yale Saturday night, so the only way they would need an at-large is if they lose at least two more regular season games, and if they lose two more, they don't have the resume to make the tournament. Akron lost at Oral Roberts which ended any hope they had of making it as an at-large. Middle Tennessee is also negatively impacted by Akron's loss, since their "best" win was at home against Akron. Their only chance at another top 100 win (to get them to 5) would be in the conference tourney against Denver (if Denver can stay in the top 100). Nevada lost at Iona in their Bracketbuster matchup, which strengthens the Gaels position but kills any slim chance the Wolfpack had. I think Bracketbusters, even though there was only one headliner, ended up busting a few brackets after all. (16 Bids)
That leaves these four conferences as POTENTIAL two-bid leagues if regular season champs don't win the conference tourney: Big West, MAAC, Ohio Valley, and Summit. Long Beach State lost at Creighton, which may have eliminated them. However, given that so many "bubble" teams have been sliding down or off the board, I won't eliminate the possibility of a top 40 RPI team getting in, even from a smaller conference. And they've been so dominant in league play, it's tough to imagine they don't just take care of business in the conference tournament. I already mentioned Iona's win over Nevada. I think Iona deserves to be in just because their coaches all wear bow-ties. Murray State whipped up on St. Mary's, which has to all but seal up a bid for them. Oral Roberts probably won't get an at-large, but with an RPI in the top 50, a winning record against the RPI top 100, and 10 wins away from home, they have to get a long look by the Committee. I think up to one of these teams will earn an at-large because they won't win their conference tournament. (5 Bids)
My multi-bid leagues' locks are as follows (for additional info here is a link to my previous post http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-field-of-68.html):
ACC: No changes. 4 Bids.
Atlantic 10: Only change is St. Joe's playing their way into consideration with 5 wins in their last 6 contests, including 3 road games. 2 Bids.
Big XII: K-State moves up into a "lock" with a win at Baylor on Saturday. Big XII now guaranteed 5 bids. Texas is in a more precarious position after their loss to Oklahoma State, but they immediately have a chance to remedy the situation with a game today against limping Baylor.
Big East: UConn is in a more fragile position after a blowout home-loss to Marquette, West Virginia is in a more solid one after a convincing win at Pitt, and Seton Hall lost at Cincy over the weekend which hurts Seton's position and helps Cincy. Unfortunately, I think the 3 teams listed not named UConn get in for sure at this point (it's unfortunate because I don't think Cincy's resume is any better than most of the mid-major bubble teams, but at this point, it's safe to assume they're a lock), giving the Big East 8 Bids.
Big Ten: Purdue won its way to the right side of the bubble at Illinois, plus they have 5 top 50 wins. With a lot of the mucky-mucks pushing for as many as 9 Big Ten teams, a finish at around .500 would seem to be enough to get the Boilermakers in. Illinois may be on their way completely off the bubble, having lost 8 of their last 9 games and watched their RPI slide over 20 spots to the high 60's. Minnesota lost their 4th game in their last 6 at Northwestern over the weekend, their RPI is dropping as well, and they still have games (read: potential losses) against Michigan State, Indiana, and at Wisconsin, plus the Big Ten tournament. They could easily be 19-14 and 6-12 in Big Ten play. Northwestern got a much needed win and still has chances to prove themselves at home against Michigan and Ohio State. They'll need wins at both Penn State and feisty Iowa to stay in the hunt, especially if they drop both games to Michigan and the Buckeyes, but I think they can/will get enough done to get a bid, though I won't lock them in right now. I think the fantasy of 75% representation from the Big Ten is quickly coming to an end thanks to Illinois and Minnesota's late collapses. 6 Bids.
CUSA: No change. 2 Bids.
Missouri Valley: No change. 2 Bids.
Mountain West: New Mexico, with their wins this week at San Diego State and at home against UNLV is in. 3 Bids, and only 3 Bids for the MWC. Colorado State (loss at Boise State) and Wyoming (loss to interim-coach-coached Air Force) are done. Although, Colorado State's win against Wyoming does keep them on the peripheral of the discussion. The very peripheral.
Pac 12: Oregon would normally be out of the picture after blowing a late lead at Cal Thursday night, even with a win at Stanford over the weekend, but with so many other teams losing, there's still a chance for them. I am going to go ahead and lock Cal in. I think the Golden Bears are esentially on the cusp of clinching an at-large bid having won 5 straight Pac 12 games: they're 22-6 with an RPI in the top 30. Arizona had a chance to make some noise with a win at Washington but fell short, leaving both of those two teams in that 64-72 range, and with a legitimate chance to get in. Colorado continues to hang around the discussion, just one rung lower than Colorado State though. But they a legitimate shot if they can win out (which would give them wins over Cal and at Oregon). Anything short of that and they are out. I still think the Pac is looking at Cal the only team to lock up 1 Bid.
SEC: No positive change: Ole Miss and Arkansas are probably completely out of the picture now. Mississippi State is trying to pull an Illinois and go from sure-fire 7/8 seed to the bubble. 4 Bids.
West Coast: BYU's win at Santa Clara locks them into the tournament picture. If they managed to lose at home to Portland AND in their first game of the WCC Tourney, they could mess it up, but I find that highly unlikely. With so many other teams around them falling by the wayside, BYU winning 7 of 8, including 4 road contests, should be good enough to lock them in. 3 Bids.
By my count, that's 61 bids taken and a lot of competition for those last 7 bids, but not a lot of teams that seem to "want" it. The list I'm still considering is: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, Alabama. 17 teams for 6 bids, unless there is a major upset in a multi-bid league's tournament, which would only reduce that number.
As of the time of this writing, my 7 picks would be (in a particular order!): Xavier, Alabama, Arizona, Texas, Northwestern, Connecticut, Miami. That would put Texas, NW, UConn, and Miami in the play-in games. I'm sure it will all look different next week, but I feel safe with my 61 called bids and 17 teams on the bubble fighting for the last 7 spots.
Big games this week to help clear up the picture:
Baylor at Texas (a chance to hook a bid for the Horns?)
Xavier at UMass (loser comes off the board)
Michigan at Northwestern (NW wins and I'll lock them in)
UNC at NC State (win and they could jump Miami)
New Mexico at Colorado State (CSU has a tough schedule, but lost ALL their tough games)
Michigan State at Minnesota (last chance for Minny)
Alabama at Arkansas (win and Bama is in)
Mississippi State at Alabama (Bama can help their seeding here too)
Illinois at Ohio State and Iowa at Illinois (one more loss, and I'll officially yank the Illini)
California at Colorado (Cal could move up to a single digit seed or Colorado could get a seat back at the table)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun) has an RPI in the 70's and they are without a top 100 game on the remainder of their schedule, so that won't improve. Cleveland State got drubbed at home by Drexel in Bracketbusters and that eliminated any chance for an at-large. Harvard beat Yale Saturday night, so the only way they would need an at-large is if they lose at least two more regular season games, and if they lose two more, they don't have the resume to make the tournament. Akron lost at Oral Roberts which ended any hope they had of making it as an at-large. Middle Tennessee is also negatively impacted by Akron's loss, since their "best" win was at home against Akron. Their only chance at another top 100 win (to get them to 5) would be in the conference tourney against Denver (if Denver can stay in the top 100). Nevada lost at Iona in their Bracketbuster matchup, which strengthens the Gaels position but kills any slim chance the Wolfpack had. I think Bracketbusters, even though there was only one headliner, ended up busting a few brackets after all. (16 Bids)
That leaves these four conferences as POTENTIAL two-bid leagues if regular season champs don't win the conference tourney: Big West, MAAC, Ohio Valley, and Summit. Long Beach State lost at Creighton, which may have eliminated them. However, given that so many "bubble" teams have been sliding down or off the board, I won't eliminate the possibility of a top 40 RPI team getting in, even from a smaller conference. And they've been so dominant in league play, it's tough to imagine they don't just take care of business in the conference tournament. I already mentioned Iona's win over Nevada. I think Iona deserves to be in just because their coaches all wear bow-ties. Murray State whipped up on St. Mary's, which has to all but seal up a bid for them. Oral Roberts probably won't get an at-large, but with an RPI in the top 50, a winning record against the RPI top 100, and 10 wins away from home, they have to get a long look by the Committee. I think up to one of these teams will earn an at-large because they won't win their conference tournament. (5 Bids)
My multi-bid leagues' locks are as follows (for additional info here is a link to my previous post http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-field-of-68.html):
ACC: No changes. 4 Bids.
Atlantic 10: Only change is St. Joe's playing their way into consideration with 5 wins in their last 6 contests, including 3 road games. 2 Bids.
Big XII: K-State moves up into a "lock" with a win at Baylor on Saturday. Big XII now guaranteed 5 bids. Texas is in a more precarious position after their loss to Oklahoma State, but they immediately have a chance to remedy the situation with a game today against limping Baylor.
Big East: UConn is in a more fragile position after a blowout home-loss to Marquette, West Virginia is in a more solid one after a convincing win at Pitt, and Seton Hall lost at Cincy over the weekend which hurts Seton's position and helps Cincy. Unfortunately, I think the 3 teams listed not named UConn get in for sure at this point (it's unfortunate because I don't think Cincy's resume is any better than most of the mid-major bubble teams, but at this point, it's safe to assume they're a lock), giving the Big East 8 Bids.
Big Ten: Purdue won its way to the right side of the bubble at Illinois, plus they have 5 top 50 wins. With a lot of the mucky-mucks pushing for as many as 9 Big Ten teams, a finish at around .500 would seem to be enough to get the Boilermakers in. Illinois may be on their way completely off the bubble, having lost 8 of their last 9 games and watched their RPI slide over 20 spots to the high 60's. Minnesota lost their 4th game in their last 6 at Northwestern over the weekend, their RPI is dropping as well, and they still have games (read: potential losses) against Michigan State, Indiana, and at Wisconsin, plus the Big Ten tournament. They could easily be 19-14 and 6-12 in Big Ten play. Northwestern got a much needed win and still has chances to prove themselves at home against Michigan and Ohio State. They'll need wins at both Penn State and feisty Iowa to stay in the hunt, especially if they drop both games to Michigan and the Buckeyes, but I think they can/will get enough done to get a bid, though I won't lock them in right now. I think the fantasy of 75% representation from the Big Ten is quickly coming to an end thanks to Illinois and Minnesota's late collapses. 6 Bids.
CUSA: No change. 2 Bids.
Missouri Valley: No change. 2 Bids.
Mountain West: New Mexico, with their wins this week at San Diego State and at home against UNLV is in. 3 Bids, and only 3 Bids for the MWC. Colorado State (loss at Boise State) and Wyoming (loss to interim-coach-coached Air Force) are done. Although, Colorado State's win against Wyoming does keep them on the peripheral of the discussion. The very peripheral.
Pac 12: Oregon would normally be out of the picture after blowing a late lead at Cal Thursday night, even with a win at Stanford over the weekend, but with so many other teams losing, there's still a chance for them. I am going to go ahead and lock Cal in. I think the Golden Bears are esentially on the cusp of clinching an at-large bid having won 5 straight Pac 12 games: they're 22-6 with an RPI in the top 30. Arizona had a chance to make some noise with a win at Washington but fell short, leaving both of those two teams in that 64-72 range, and with a legitimate chance to get in. Colorado continues to hang around the discussion, just one rung lower than Colorado State though. But they a legitimate shot if they can win out (which would give them wins over Cal and at Oregon). Anything short of that and they are out. I still think the Pac is looking at Cal the only team to lock up 1 Bid.
SEC: No positive change: Ole Miss and Arkansas are probably completely out of the picture now. Mississippi State is trying to pull an Illinois and go from sure-fire 7/8 seed to the bubble. 4 Bids.
West Coast: BYU's win at Santa Clara locks them into the tournament picture. If they managed to lose at home to Portland AND in their first game of the WCC Tourney, they could mess it up, but I find that highly unlikely. With so many other teams around them falling by the wayside, BYU winning 7 of 8, including 4 road contests, should be good enough to lock them in. 3 Bids.
By my count, that's 61 bids taken and a lot of competition for those last 7 bids, but not a lot of teams that seem to "want" it. The list I'm still considering is: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, Alabama. 17 teams for 6 bids, unless there is a major upset in a multi-bid league's tournament, which would only reduce that number.
As of the time of this writing, my 7 picks would be (in a particular order!): Xavier, Alabama, Arizona, Texas, Northwestern, Connecticut, Miami. That would put Texas, NW, UConn, and Miami in the play-in games. I'm sure it will all look different next week, but I feel safe with my 61 called bids and 17 teams on the bubble fighting for the last 7 spots.
Big games this week to help clear up the picture:
Baylor at Texas (a chance to hook a bid for the Horns?)
Xavier at UMass (loser comes off the board)
Michigan at Northwestern (NW wins and I'll lock them in)
UNC at NC State (win and they could jump Miami)
New Mexico at Colorado State (CSU has a tough schedule, but lost ALL their tough games)
Michigan State at Minnesota (last chance for Minny)
Alabama at Arkansas (win and Bama is in)
Mississippi State at Alabama (Bama can help their seeding here too)
Illinois at Ohio State and Iowa at Illinois (one more loss, and I'll officially yank the Illini)
California at Colorado (Cal could move up to a single digit seed or Colorado could get a seat back at the table)
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