Why This is No "Gimme" for BYU
This is a very dangerous game for BYU. Not because it's a "trap game" or they are looking ahead or for any other reason than that they are playing a quality team, on the road, that is hungry and desperate to prove themselves. Adding on that, there will be a sellout crowd out to support their CSU Rams for the final time at home against the hated BYU Cougars.
A Look at CSU
They have more talent and experience than in years past. They start 3 seniors and 2 sophomores. Their Forwards will be tough to guard with Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin. Last year, Chris Miles and Noah Hartsock were able to shut down Ogide and Franklin with their size in the middle. Can Davies step in and do the same? There is not another body to pick up that assignment if he can't, or if he gets in foul trouble. Guards Dorian Green and Adam Nigon have been through the battles before, and Iowa State transfer Wes Eikmeier has found a nice little nitche on the team as well. Sharpshooter Jesse Carr can come off the bench for some instant offense (though only for short stretches). Ogide, Franklin, and Eikmeier combined for 58 points against UNLV on Wednesday. Those three take high percentage shots and make them at a high percentage. Like BYU, they have lacked consistent bench scoring threats outside of the top 6.
A Look at BYU
BYU has been winning games big of late. But I have noticed that the Cougars have looked a bit more selfish. Jimmer has been forcing shots (in the 16 field goals he made against Utah, I think only 2 came off of passes: the rest were all one-on-one or one-on-two). Davies has taken a few shots outside of the offense. Even Emery has been taking (and, fortunately, making) a lot of contested outside shots. If those shots don't fall today, can the Cougars adjust their game? Dave Rose knows how to prepare his teams, he knows how to adjust, he knows how to win games. So do Jimmer and Jackson and Noah. But if Davies and Hartsock are contained by Ogide and Franklin, can Jimmer and Jackson continue to make contested long range shots all game long? The odds are not in their favor that it will continue, and I think that is why they are in for a dogfight tonight in Fort Collins. Jackson has been nails, hitting a lot of crucial shots this year. Jimmer has obviously been the money. But even MJ and Scottie had games where they were both missing.
BYU has looked like a team on a mission, however, for most of the season. Can they really be denied by a team they have not lost to in ages, and by a team they have beat by 20+ points in 5 of the 7 games Jimmer has played against them (the closest game in the Jimmer era was 14 points).
Prediction
I think CSU will give certainly BYU all they want. If it is decided by more than 7 points it is either Jimmer scoring 40 or Jimmer going 1 for 40. BYU is clearly the better team. CSU is probably the hungrier team, and basketball, more so than any team sport, can be decided by the size of the fight in the dog. I think the Rams score the big upset today and enhance that NCAA Tournament resume, though I would be happy to be wrong and have BYU win. Rams 81, Cougars 77.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
MWC Games Preview 1/22/2011
Wyoming at Air Force
These two teams are fighting to stay out of last place in the MWC. Air Force is improved this season over the last-place finishes of the previous two seasons.. Wyoming seems to have an entire athletic program going the wrong direction, after a few years in the middle of the pack. Air Force is playing well at home, with a 7-2 record (though one loss was against a Division III team...). Wyoming hasn't won a road game yet this season. I wouldn't (and won't) waste my time watching this game: a boring team hosting a bad team. First one to 60 points wins. Air Force gets there first: Falcons 69, Cowboys 59.
New Mexico at UNLV
It is difficult to call this a must-win so early in the conference season, but the loser of this game will be in some trouble. New Mexico would be 1-4 in conference. UNLV would have lost 3 home games before the conference season was half over. This is a battle of two teams that need to re-establish themselves as relevant in the MWC. The loser is out of that discussion, and the winner remains, though still very much on the fringe. I think UNLV is on the brink of the disaster, if you ask me. The last time that happened (after BYU) they came out the next game and dominated TCU. I recognize that New Mexico is no TCU, but they are coming off of back-to-back losses and losses in three out of four games. It seems that this season the better Dairese Gary plays, the worse New Mexico plays. If he scores 20 points, the Lobos might be in trouble...
UNLV PG Tre'Von Willis will be a game-time decision. But his presence on the court hasn't exactly helped anyway. After Jimmer dropped 39 at UNLV, Willis blew up in the locker room at his teammates. He responded the next game with a good effort, but then made several crucial bad plays that ultimately cost them the game at SDSU. He hasn't played since. The team needs a leader, if Willis wants to be it, he needs to play in this game and he needs to play well. Last year he played well against New Mexico with 20 points in one game and 10 assists in the other. They might need both today.
I think having fans boo the Rebels at home against CSU will either wake them up and send them deeper into a spiral that can only end in the NIT. It will be pretty clear in the first 10 minutes of the game which one it is. This one could go either way. One of these teams may have one good run left in them. I'm going with New Mexico in the road upset, stick a fork in UNLV: Lobos 75, Rebels 65.
Utah at TCU
I went back and watched the BYU-Utah again this week. Utah did a lot of things very well, in spurts. They played a lot better than people gave them credit for. They dominated the boards the entire game and controlled the game for much of it as well, especially early on. Since that game, they have gone on the road and beaten Wyoming by 17, while taking New Mexico down at home this week by double digits as well. TCU has beaten some quality opponents at home this season, however, with wins against Houston and USC at home. They battled BYU on the road and managed to hold Jimmer to 21 points. Ronnie Moss is scoring at a very high rate the past month. He just hasn't had much consistent help. Utah fans probably feel the same way with Clyburn. The difference is: Josh Watkins has stepped it up the past few games. If he can contribute 15 to the Utes' cause today, they will do well. I think this will be another close game, like all of the games today, really could go either way. I'll take Utah to extend their winning streak to 3: Utes 71, Frogs 69.
These two teams are fighting to stay out of last place in the MWC. Air Force is improved this season over the last-place finishes of the previous two seasons.. Wyoming seems to have an entire athletic program going the wrong direction, after a few years in the middle of the pack. Air Force is playing well at home, with a 7-2 record (though one loss was against a Division III team...). Wyoming hasn't won a road game yet this season. I wouldn't (and won't) waste my time watching this game: a boring team hosting a bad team. First one to 60 points wins. Air Force gets there first: Falcons 69, Cowboys 59.
New Mexico at UNLV
It is difficult to call this a must-win so early in the conference season, but the loser of this game will be in some trouble. New Mexico would be 1-4 in conference. UNLV would have lost 3 home games before the conference season was half over. This is a battle of two teams that need to re-establish themselves as relevant in the MWC. The loser is out of that discussion, and the winner remains, though still very much on the fringe. I think UNLV is on the brink of the disaster, if you ask me. The last time that happened (after BYU) they came out the next game and dominated TCU. I recognize that New Mexico is no TCU, but they are coming off of back-to-back losses and losses in three out of four games. It seems that this season the better Dairese Gary plays, the worse New Mexico plays. If he scores 20 points, the Lobos might be in trouble...
UNLV PG Tre'Von Willis will be a game-time decision. But his presence on the court hasn't exactly helped anyway. After Jimmer dropped 39 at UNLV, Willis blew up in the locker room at his teammates. He responded the next game with a good effort, but then made several crucial bad plays that ultimately cost them the game at SDSU. He hasn't played since. The team needs a leader, if Willis wants to be it, he needs to play in this game and he needs to play well. Last year he played well against New Mexico with 20 points in one game and 10 assists in the other. They might need both today.
I think having fans boo the Rebels at home against CSU will either wake them up and send them deeper into a spiral that can only end in the NIT. It will be pretty clear in the first 10 minutes of the game which one it is. This one could go either way. One of these teams may have one good run left in them. I'm going with New Mexico in the road upset, stick a fork in UNLV: Lobos 75, Rebels 65.
Utah at TCU
I went back and watched the BYU-Utah again this week. Utah did a lot of things very well, in spurts. They played a lot better than people gave them credit for. They dominated the boards the entire game and controlled the game for much of it as well, especially early on. Since that game, they have gone on the road and beaten Wyoming by 17, while taking New Mexico down at home this week by double digits as well. TCU has beaten some quality opponents at home this season, however, with wins against Houston and USC at home. They battled BYU on the road and managed to hold Jimmer to 21 points. Ronnie Moss is scoring at a very high rate the past month. He just hasn't had much consistent help. Utah fans probably feel the same way with Clyburn. The difference is: Josh Watkins has stepped it up the past few games. If he can contribute 15 to the Utes' cause today, they will do well. I think this will be another close game, like all of the games today, really could go either way. I'll take Utah to extend their winning streak to 3: Utes 71, Frogs 69.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
State of MWC Hoops, 1/20/2011
The Elimination Game
And then there were three. With losses last night, New Mexico and UNLV have been eliminated from contention for the MWC crown. With a win last night at UNLV, Colorado State has planted itself firmly in the discussion. The MWC Champ will be, at worst, 13-3 and could be as good as 16-0 or 15-1 (though my money is still on 14-2). Teams with 3 losses need to run off 11 straight wins to have any chance. As I said, then there were three: SDSU, BYU, and CSU. Here's a rundown of the three movers from last night (2 down and 1 up)
UNLV Runnin' Rebels: Down
UNLV has lost two conference home games already (without having played SDSU and New Mexico at home). They have two games left against New Mexico, they have to travel to BYU and CSU (who both beat the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack), and have to play SDSU at home. Playing a bunch of thugs has finally caught up with the Rebels, as this particular group has had chemistry issues from the start. What was once a sure thing for them (an NCAA Tournament bid) may now be in jeopardy, particularly if they lose ANOTHER game on their home floor in the MWC Tournament. The losses are starting to pile up now (5) for a team in a league that has about an 8- or 9-loss maximum for NCAA Tournament consideration. They need to beat SDSU at home, and could probably use a road win against New Mexico and/or BYU.
New Mexico Lobos: Down and Out
New Mexico has now lost two road games to "bottom half" teams, first at Wyoming and now at Utah (a place where SDSU and BYU have victories). They also have lost a conference home game to SDSU. With 6 losses already and zero non-conference wins of note, their MWC Title and NCAA Tournament hopes are completely sunk at this point. They still have to play 4 regular season games against BYU and UNLV, plus road games at SDSU and CSU: they need to go 5-1 in those games, which they will not do. And who is to say they couldn't lose at TCU or Air Force too. I think, barring an MWC Tourney Championship, they are now officially NIT-bound (or worse).
Colorado State Rams: On the Up and Up with BYU Coming Up
CSU has matched BYU now with a win at UNLV. They did lose at the Pit in New Mexico, but BYU still has that opportunity yet. They have to play both BYU and SDSU twice (BYU at home this Saturday), get UNLV and New Mexico at home still, and have shown they can win at home against the rest of the bunch. I still have some concerns about road games, as their best non-home win prior to UNLV was against Southern Miss, who is, at best, an NIT team, and probably not even that good. As with UNLV, the number of losses is probably too great (5 already with 4 regular season games against top 10 teams remaining) for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. They now have a road win to hang their hat on and can probably count on an NIT appearance, barring a major collapse to close out the season.
And then there were three. With losses last night, New Mexico and UNLV have been eliminated from contention for the MWC crown. With a win last night at UNLV, Colorado State has planted itself firmly in the discussion. The MWC Champ will be, at worst, 13-3 and could be as good as 16-0 or 15-1 (though my money is still on 14-2). Teams with 3 losses need to run off 11 straight wins to have any chance. As I said, then there were three: SDSU, BYU, and CSU. Here's a rundown of the three movers from last night (2 down and 1 up)
UNLV Runnin' Rebels: Down
UNLV has lost two conference home games already (without having played SDSU and New Mexico at home). They have two games left against New Mexico, they have to travel to BYU and CSU (who both beat the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack), and have to play SDSU at home. Playing a bunch of thugs has finally caught up with the Rebels, as this particular group has had chemistry issues from the start. What was once a sure thing for them (an NCAA Tournament bid) may now be in jeopardy, particularly if they lose ANOTHER game on their home floor in the MWC Tournament. The losses are starting to pile up now (5) for a team in a league that has about an 8- or 9-loss maximum for NCAA Tournament consideration. They need to beat SDSU at home, and could probably use a road win against New Mexico and/or BYU.
New Mexico Lobos: Down and Out
New Mexico has now lost two road games to "bottom half" teams, first at Wyoming and now at Utah (a place where SDSU and BYU have victories). They also have lost a conference home game to SDSU. With 6 losses already and zero non-conference wins of note, their MWC Title and NCAA Tournament hopes are completely sunk at this point. They still have to play 4 regular season games against BYU and UNLV, plus road games at SDSU and CSU: they need to go 5-1 in those games, which they will not do. And who is to say they couldn't lose at TCU or Air Force too. I think, barring an MWC Tourney Championship, they are now officially NIT-bound (or worse).
Colorado State Rams: On the Up and Up with BYU Coming Up
CSU has matched BYU now with a win at UNLV. They did lose at the Pit in New Mexico, but BYU still has that opportunity yet. They have to play both BYU and SDSU twice (BYU at home this Saturday), get UNLV and New Mexico at home still, and have shown they can win at home against the rest of the bunch. I still have some concerns about road games, as their best non-home win prior to UNLV was against Southern Miss, who is, at best, an NIT team, and probably not even that good. As with UNLV, the number of losses is probably too great (5 already with 4 regular season games against top 10 teams remaining) for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. They now have a road win to hang their hat on and can probably count on an NIT appearance, barring a major collapse to close out the season.
Monday, January 17, 2011
TCU-BYU Preview, 1/18/2011
A Look at TCU
TCU is not necessarily a young team, but a lot of their players are making their first or second run through the MWC. They have several JC and other D-I transfers. As such, this will be their first game in a packed Marriott Center (at least I figure it will be packed with it being labeled "Jackson Emery Night" in Provo: it will certainly exceed the less-than-12k that attended last year's game in Provo). 3 of the 4 Horned Frogs that played at BYU before have scored in double figures there: G Greg Hill, G Ronnie Moss, and F Garlon Green. Though Nikola Cerina scored in double figures in the other two games against BYU last season: in Fort Worth and in Vegas in the MWC tourney.
To say that TCU always plays BYU tough is a bit inaccurate, since BYU usually wins by double-digits, but they do always play BYU tougher than they should. They have a lot of different scoring options and some of those options present what tend to be difficult matchups for BYU: they are not tremendously skilled basketball players but they are very athletic and play "higher" than BYU typically does. BYU is a below-the-rim type of team and TCU usually has some leapers, though this team really lacks that kind of guy in the post. TCU never really plays a true center, which could give Davies some matchup problems defensively. Their leading scorers are: G Ronnie Moss, F Garlon Green, G Sammy Yeager, and 5'9" G Hank Thorns, who all average over 9 points/game.
Though the player I believe that BYU fans will want to watch out for is SF J.R. Cadot, who has been wildly inconsistent but very good when he is on. Those are the types of guys who tend to get going against BYU and look like All-Americans: BYU fans know what I am talking about! He has had 7 games of 8 or more rebounds and had 5 games in double figures scoring. In conference play he has struggled, scoring only 11 points in 4 games, but he will be guarded by true freshman Kyle Collinsworth most of the night. If Collinsworth matches up well with him, I think BYU controls the game. Ronnie Moss would be the sexy pick for BYU to stop, but I think Moss will be easier to slow down than Cadot, given BYU's strengths. F Nikola Cerina is another one to watch. He probably wants to get a little revenge against BYU after some chippy moments in all three games against BYU/Chris Miles, and then fouling out in the MWC Tournament game after several "hard" fouls.
A Look at BYU
Besides Jimmer, who is a mismatch for most everyone in the MWC, Brandon Davies will be the one Cougar involved in a "mismatch" most of the evening. He should have the speed to move around Cerina and Nikola Gacesa and the size to take on Amric Fields, if he can stay out of foul trouble, which may be tough: Cerina and Gacesa are bigger than him and Fields is quicker than him...the mismatch works both ways.
With this being Jackson Emery night, will he perform well? How does he handle that pressure? Jimmer played well in the "Jimmer game" and we shall see if Jackson is equally nails in "his" game. We may see him come out a little overanxious early on, but my guess is he'll settle down eventually and play another solid game. With some of his 3-point makes at UNLV, it appears he has finally turned the proverbial corner.
I am still waiting for one guy to come off the bench and provide a consistent scoring threat. I keep waiting for Abouo or Rogers to be that guy and they have both looked out of sorts at times. It is amazing to see the Junior Wing Charles Abouo, who plays for his Ivory Coast National Team, look completely lost out there at times. He has played in 87 collegiate basketball games, but since the Vermont game, he seems totally out of sync with what the rest of the team is doing. Stephen Rogers transition hasn't been as surprising. He really doesn't have a position for BYU: not big enough to be a '4' and not quick enough to be a '3' for BYU's style. But he seemed to be coming along after solid games against Hawaii and Vermont, plus the solid outings against UTEP, Buffalo, Fresno-Pacific, and Air Force. Defensively, he's been pretty absent the entire season, having a few good rebounding games against the worst of BYU's opponents.
Prediction
I think the game, as usually typical with TCU, will be closer than it should be. But it probably should be a 20 or 25-point win. BYU will be looking to push tempo, as it seems pretty evident TCU could not match BYU score for score. They have been too inconsistent, especially in conference play, to have a guy go for 25 points or have 4 or 5 guys score in double figures. They would need one, or both, of those to happen to match BYU's scoring. Will BYU be rusty or rested, having not played in a week? With BYU, typically they come out lights out before the rust starts to show around minute 5-6, and then they pick it up to close out the first half. I don't see any reason why that shouldn't hold true Tuesday Night in the Marriott Center as well. It's probably 10-12 points by halftime, and 12-16 points for most of the second half. TCU finishes with a late run to cut it to down to 10 or 12, maybe even 8. BYU 83, TCU 72.
TCU is not necessarily a young team, but a lot of their players are making their first or second run through the MWC. They have several JC and other D-I transfers. As such, this will be their first game in a packed Marriott Center (at least I figure it will be packed with it being labeled "Jackson Emery Night" in Provo: it will certainly exceed the less-than-12k that attended last year's game in Provo). 3 of the 4 Horned Frogs that played at BYU before have scored in double figures there: G Greg Hill, G Ronnie Moss, and F Garlon Green. Though Nikola Cerina scored in double figures in the other two games against BYU last season: in Fort Worth and in Vegas in the MWC tourney.
To say that TCU always plays BYU tough is a bit inaccurate, since BYU usually wins by double-digits, but they do always play BYU tougher than they should. They have a lot of different scoring options and some of those options present what tend to be difficult matchups for BYU: they are not tremendously skilled basketball players but they are very athletic and play "higher" than BYU typically does. BYU is a below-the-rim type of team and TCU usually has some leapers, though this team really lacks that kind of guy in the post. TCU never really plays a true center, which could give Davies some matchup problems defensively. Their leading scorers are: G Ronnie Moss, F Garlon Green, G Sammy Yeager, and 5'9" G Hank Thorns, who all average over 9 points/game.
Though the player I believe that BYU fans will want to watch out for is SF J.R. Cadot, who has been wildly inconsistent but very good when he is on. Those are the types of guys who tend to get going against BYU and look like All-Americans: BYU fans know what I am talking about! He has had 7 games of 8 or more rebounds and had 5 games in double figures scoring. In conference play he has struggled, scoring only 11 points in 4 games, but he will be guarded by true freshman Kyle Collinsworth most of the night. If Collinsworth matches up well with him, I think BYU controls the game. Ronnie Moss would be the sexy pick for BYU to stop, but I think Moss will be easier to slow down than Cadot, given BYU's strengths. F Nikola Cerina is another one to watch. He probably wants to get a little revenge against BYU after some chippy moments in all three games against BYU/Chris Miles, and then fouling out in the MWC Tournament game after several "hard" fouls.
A Look at BYU
Besides Jimmer, who is a mismatch for most everyone in the MWC, Brandon Davies will be the one Cougar involved in a "mismatch" most of the evening. He should have the speed to move around Cerina and Nikola Gacesa and the size to take on Amric Fields, if he can stay out of foul trouble, which may be tough: Cerina and Gacesa are bigger than him and Fields is quicker than him...the mismatch works both ways.
With this being Jackson Emery night, will he perform well? How does he handle that pressure? Jimmer played well in the "Jimmer game" and we shall see if Jackson is equally nails in "his" game. We may see him come out a little overanxious early on, but my guess is he'll settle down eventually and play another solid game. With some of his 3-point makes at UNLV, it appears he has finally turned the proverbial corner.
I am still waiting for one guy to come off the bench and provide a consistent scoring threat. I keep waiting for Abouo or Rogers to be that guy and they have both looked out of sorts at times. It is amazing to see the Junior Wing Charles Abouo, who plays for his Ivory Coast National Team, look completely lost out there at times. He has played in 87 collegiate basketball games, but since the Vermont game, he seems totally out of sync with what the rest of the team is doing. Stephen Rogers transition hasn't been as surprising. He really doesn't have a position for BYU: not big enough to be a '4' and not quick enough to be a '3' for BYU's style. But he seemed to be coming along after solid games against Hawaii and Vermont, plus the solid outings against UTEP, Buffalo, Fresno-Pacific, and Air Force. Defensively, he's been pretty absent the entire season, having a few good rebounding games against the worst of BYU's opponents.
Prediction
I think the game, as usually typical with TCU, will be closer than it should be. But it probably should be a 20 or 25-point win. BYU will be looking to push tempo, as it seems pretty evident TCU could not match BYU score for score. They have been too inconsistent, especially in conference play, to have a guy go for 25 points or have 4 or 5 guys score in double figures. They would need one, or both, of those to happen to match BYU's scoring. Will BYU be rusty or rested, having not played in a week? With BYU, typically they come out lights out before the rust starts to show around minute 5-6, and then they pick it up to close out the first half. I don't see any reason why that shouldn't hold true Tuesday Night in the Marriott Center as well. It's probably 10-12 points by halftime, and 12-16 points for most of the second half. TCU finishes with a late run to cut it to down to 10 or 12, maybe even 8. BYU 83, TCU 72.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
BYU and the BCS in 2011, Part II
As mentioned in my previous post (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-i.html), an 11-1 or 12-0 BYU team would have to fight for one of 3 at-large bids to a BCS game. A big obstacle to obtaining an at-large bid is that the highest-ranked non-BCS conference champion, should it finish in the top 12 (or top 16 if the ACC and Big East Champ is ranked lower), gets an automatic bid and reduces the at-large pool from 3 to 2. I have assumed that the SEC will place two teams in the BCS, as it has down every year that I can recall.
The MWC Champion is definitely a contender to take one of the three coveted spots. The MWC Champion has played in a BCS game for 3 consecutive years. The 2 years prior to that, BYU was the MWC Champion and was not in consideration for the BCS because the WAC Champion was ranked higher both years (Hawaii and Boise State). Conference USA could potentially pose a threat in 2011, with the emergence of UCF and the return of QB Case Keenum at Houston for a rare 6th year.
The MWC Champion Contenders
Boise State
They have always been a quality team, but this year they will join the MWC and face a stiffer schedule than in years past. They lost a ton from this year's 12-1, top 10 finisher. On offense, Austin Pettis, Titus Young, and Jeremy Avery are the big names that they lost. They return a good number of major contributors, however: QB Kellen Moore, RBs Doug Martin and D.J. Harper (who had a season-ending injury in game 3), WR Tyler Shoemaker, and TE Kyle Efaw. They also return 4 of 5 OL. They lost their Offensive Coordinator to the University of Texas.
Defensively, they lost all the big names (except LB Byron Hout, who is more of a big name for the punch he took to start 2009, not for his actual play on the field), but still have good players returning. The losses include DE Ryan Winterswyk, LB Derrell Acrey, and DBs Winston Venable and Jeron Johnson. The big names they bring back are NT Billy Winn, LB JC Percy, and DB George Iloka.
They lose K/P Kyle Brotzman. They lose KR Titus Young. PR Chris Potter returns.
Their schedule is substantially more difficult in 2011: home games against Georgia, Nevada, Air Force, SDSU and road games at Fresno State and TCU. However, at 11-1, they would qualify for an automatic bid to the BCS, assuming they were the MWC Champion. And 11-1 is not out of the realm of possibilities by any means, even with a tougher schedule and the personnel losses mentioned above. They are moving to a new conference, which can be an advantage: no one is familiar with what they do.
TCU
The names that carried TCU the past 3 seasons are gone. QB Andy Dalton, WRs Antoine Hicks, Jeremy Kerley, and Jimmy Young, TE Evan Frosch, and 4 of the top 6 OL graduate. They return all of the RBs, WR Josh Boyce, and FB Luke Shivers. Casey Paschall appears to be the heir apparent at QB for the Horned Frogs. He is 6-9 in his career with a TD. He also has 15 rushing attempts for 94 yards and 2 TDs. His running ability will be as important as his passing ability: Dalton was the 3rd or 4th best rusher on TCU each of the past 3 seasons.
Defensively, they also lose a lot from the Rose Bowl winning team. They lose 3 of the top 6 on the DL and 4 of the top 6 in the Secondary. But they return both of their LBs.
Special teams loses PR/KR Kerley, but brings back both their K and P.
The schedule is easier for them than the 2010 one was, at least as it now stands. They still have two games left to fill on the schedule. They lose BYU and Utah in conference play, but gain Boise State. The non-conference schedule currently includes games at Baylor and at home against Texas Tech and SMU. They have to travel to Air Force and San Diego State. As with Boise State, at 11-1 with an MWC Championship, they are a shoe-in for the automatic BCS bid. I don't believe they can go 11-1 in 2011 though.
Air Force/SDSU
Both of these programs seem to be building momentum. Both return most of their key players from teams that played well all season and finished with bowl wins against quality competition. SDSU pushed TCU to the wire in Fort Worth, but loses their Head Coach. Air Force always pushes TCU at home, where they get them in 2011. Both teams would likely have to be 12-0 to finish in the top 12/16. This is not likely. They have to play each other, Boise State, and TCU in conference, plus have difficult non-conference games too. Air Force plays at Navy and at Notre Dame. SDSU plays at Michigan and against an improving Washington State and Fresno State at home. However, I think either of these teams could win the MWC, so they deserve to be mentioned here.
Conference USA Champion
Conventional wisdom says the C-USA Champ has no chance to get the automatic BCS bid. However, UCF, Tulsa, and Houston have all pushed the envelope the past few seasons. UCF plays at BYU. If they win that game, BYU is out of the picture. If they lose that game, UCF is out of the picture. Tulsa is replacing its head coach, two seasons after replacing its O-Coordinator who just led Auburn to a National Championship. Houston gets Case Keenum back, but is he enough to help a 5-7 team become a 13-0 team? That would have to be the standard for C-USA: 13-0. The blessing and curse of their conference championship game: it is one more game to survive but one more game that can build your ranking while the MWC Champion is idle. I don't see C-USA being a big threat to jump into the BCS in 2011.
As a side note: there has been a lot of talk about the MWC and C-USA champions meeting for an automatic BCS bid. That is a completely ridiculous notion, and one that the BCS would NEVER, EVER agree to. If the MWC or C-USA champion is deserving, they will get an automatic bid anyway, but that is not every season, and the BCS will never offer that every season. Besides, what has C-USA done to prove that they deserve to be in the discussion anyway?
The Non-AQs in Summation
Boise State going 11-1 and winning the MWC is BYU's biggest threat from the non-AQs for a spot in the BCS. TCU will not likely go 11-1 or 12-0. SDSU or Air Force will not go 12-0. The future C-USA champion will be out of the discussion by October, since all of the contenders will have at least one loss by then, as they always do in C-USA. Of course, BYU could be well out of the discussion by then as well.
What to Expect in Part III
A look at the BCS conferences capable of sending a second team to the BCS and how BYU would stack up against the potential teams from those conferences.
The MWC Champion is definitely a contender to take one of the three coveted spots. The MWC Champion has played in a BCS game for 3 consecutive years. The 2 years prior to that, BYU was the MWC Champion and was not in consideration for the BCS because the WAC Champion was ranked higher both years (Hawaii and Boise State). Conference USA could potentially pose a threat in 2011, with the emergence of UCF and the return of QB Case Keenum at Houston for a rare 6th year.
The MWC Champion Contenders
Boise State
They have always been a quality team, but this year they will join the MWC and face a stiffer schedule than in years past. They lost a ton from this year's 12-1, top 10 finisher. On offense, Austin Pettis, Titus Young, and Jeremy Avery are the big names that they lost. They return a good number of major contributors, however: QB Kellen Moore, RBs Doug Martin and D.J. Harper (who had a season-ending injury in game 3), WR Tyler Shoemaker, and TE Kyle Efaw. They also return 4 of 5 OL. They lost their Offensive Coordinator to the University of Texas.
Defensively, they lost all the big names (except LB Byron Hout, who is more of a big name for the punch he took to start 2009, not for his actual play on the field), but still have good players returning. The losses include DE Ryan Winterswyk, LB Derrell Acrey, and DBs Winston Venable and Jeron Johnson. The big names they bring back are NT Billy Winn, LB JC Percy, and DB George Iloka.
They lose K/P Kyle Brotzman. They lose KR Titus Young. PR Chris Potter returns.
Their schedule is substantially more difficult in 2011: home games against Georgia, Nevada, Air Force, SDSU and road games at Fresno State and TCU. However, at 11-1, they would qualify for an automatic bid to the BCS, assuming they were the MWC Champion. And 11-1 is not out of the realm of possibilities by any means, even with a tougher schedule and the personnel losses mentioned above. They are moving to a new conference, which can be an advantage: no one is familiar with what they do.
TCU
The names that carried TCU the past 3 seasons are gone. QB Andy Dalton, WRs Antoine Hicks, Jeremy Kerley, and Jimmy Young, TE Evan Frosch, and 4 of the top 6 OL graduate. They return all of the RBs, WR Josh Boyce, and FB Luke Shivers. Casey Paschall appears to be the heir apparent at QB for the Horned Frogs. He is 6-9 in his career with a TD. He also has 15 rushing attempts for 94 yards and 2 TDs. His running ability will be as important as his passing ability: Dalton was the 3rd or 4th best rusher on TCU each of the past 3 seasons.
Defensively, they also lose a lot from the Rose Bowl winning team. They lose 3 of the top 6 on the DL and 4 of the top 6 in the Secondary. But they return both of their LBs.
Special teams loses PR/KR Kerley, but brings back both their K and P.
The schedule is easier for them than the 2010 one was, at least as it now stands. They still have two games left to fill on the schedule. They lose BYU and Utah in conference play, but gain Boise State. The non-conference schedule currently includes games at Baylor and at home against Texas Tech and SMU. They have to travel to Air Force and San Diego State. As with Boise State, at 11-1 with an MWC Championship, they are a shoe-in for the automatic BCS bid. I don't believe they can go 11-1 in 2011 though.
Air Force/SDSU
Both of these programs seem to be building momentum. Both return most of their key players from teams that played well all season and finished with bowl wins against quality competition. SDSU pushed TCU to the wire in Fort Worth, but loses their Head Coach. Air Force always pushes TCU at home, where they get them in 2011. Both teams would likely have to be 12-0 to finish in the top 12/16. This is not likely. They have to play each other, Boise State, and TCU in conference, plus have difficult non-conference games too. Air Force plays at Navy and at Notre Dame. SDSU plays at Michigan and against an improving Washington State and Fresno State at home. However, I think either of these teams could win the MWC, so they deserve to be mentioned here.
Conference USA Champion
Conventional wisdom says the C-USA Champ has no chance to get the automatic BCS bid. However, UCF, Tulsa, and Houston have all pushed the envelope the past few seasons. UCF plays at BYU. If they win that game, BYU is out of the picture. If they lose that game, UCF is out of the picture. Tulsa is replacing its head coach, two seasons after replacing its O-Coordinator who just led Auburn to a National Championship. Houston gets Case Keenum back, but is he enough to help a 5-7 team become a 13-0 team? That would have to be the standard for C-USA: 13-0. The blessing and curse of their conference championship game: it is one more game to survive but one more game that can build your ranking while the MWC Champion is idle. I don't see C-USA being a big threat to jump into the BCS in 2011.
As a side note: there has been a lot of talk about the MWC and C-USA champions meeting for an automatic BCS bid. That is a completely ridiculous notion, and one that the BCS would NEVER, EVER agree to. If the MWC or C-USA champion is deserving, they will get an automatic bid anyway, but that is not every season, and the BCS will never offer that every season. Besides, what has C-USA done to prove that they deserve to be in the discussion anyway?
The Non-AQs in Summation
Boise State going 11-1 and winning the MWC is BYU's biggest threat from the non-AQs for a spot in the BCS. TCU will not likely go 11-1 or 12-0. SDSU or Air Force will not go 12-0. The future C-USA champion will be out of the discussion by October, since all of the contenders will have at least one loss by then, as they always do in C-USA. Of course, BYU could be well out of the discussion by then as well.
What to Expect in Part III
A look at the BCS conferences capable of sending a second team to the BCS and how BYU would stack up against the potential teams from those conferences.
Friday, January 14, 2011
BYU and the BCS in 2011, Part I
The Curse of Independence
Going independent, BYU has lost the "easy" access to the BCS that they helped to create for non-AQ schools. Currently, the highest rated non-BCS conference champion gets an automatic BCS bid if they are ranked in the top 12, or in the top 16 if they are ranked higher than a conference champion from one of the 6 BCS conferences. BYU, as an independent, has foregone any possibility to be a conference champion and get any kind of automatic entrance to a BCS game. This means they must be selected as an at-large team. Notre Dame has a special deal with the BCS that allows them an "automatic" bid if they finish in the top 8 and have at least 9 wins. BYU does not have, nor do they deserve, any such special treatment. I am not sure that Notre Dame deserves their special treatment anymore, but they are still Notre Dame: if they play in a BCS game, 50 million (or more) Catholics worldwide will tune in. As I have stated since the beginning of their Road to Independence, BYU is no Notre Dame. On the field, maybe. Off the field, no way.
A Numbers Game
Getting into the BCS, at-large style, is simply a numbers game. There are 10 bids available. 6 of them are automatically taken by 6 BCS conference champions. A 7th is taken by an SEC team. Guaranteed. This leaves 3 other spots in the BCS. A 12-0, or 11-1 if it is Boise State or TCU, MWC Champion would also obtain the automatic bid described earlier. However, there is no guarantee that a 10-2 Boise State/TCU, or an 11-1 Air Force/SDSU would be in the top 16. If the MWC Champion is outside the top 16, BYU would be competing for 3 spots with a second team from the Pac 12, Big XII, or Big Ten. If the MWC Champion is in the top 16, they would be competing for 2 spots with teams from those conferences.
How Does BYU Get There
Going 12-0 would be a huge start. Going 11-1 would leave the door open, if the loss was on the road to an undefeated BCS conference champion (Texas is the best/only possibility on BYU's schedule). I believe a 12-0 BYU team would be difficult, but not impossible, to pass over by the BCS. An 11-1 team would also be worthy of consideration. Based on how BYU finished the year, what players they bring back, and what the coaching staff looks like for next season, there is not a game on the schedule that BYU couldn't win. Prior to the 2010 season, there were two games they could not win: at Florida State and at TCU. As it turned out, there were others too, but looking ahead to the 2011 season there are no unwinnable games. In the coming weeks, I will walk through the 2011 schedule game by game, but for now, it is enough to say: BYU could win any of them. There are also 6 losable games on the schedule too.
What to Expect in Part II
I will evaluate the competition for those 2 or 3 remaining BCS bids, both from non-AQ challengers and from the Pac 12, Big XII, and Big Ten (I see no reason to assume that the ACC or Big East will provide a SECOND challenger for a BCS bid in 2011, given how far away they were from that in 2010. The Big East didn't even have ONE worthy team in the conference this season).
Going independent, BYU has lost the "easy" access to the BCS that they helped to create for non-AQ schools. Currently, the highest rated non-BCS conference champion gets an automatic BCS bid if they are ranked in the top 12, or in the top 16 if they are ranked higher than a conference champion from one of the 6 BCS conferences. BYU, as an independent, has foregone any possibility to be a conference champion and get any kind of automatic entrance to a BCS game. This means they must be selected as an at-large team. Notre Dame has a special deal with the BCS that allows them an "automatic" bid if they finish in the top 8 and have at least 9 wins. BYU does not have, nor do they deserve, any such special treatment. I am not sure that Notre Dame deserves their special treatment anymore, but they are still Notre Dame: if they play in a BCS game, 50 million (or more) Catholics worldwide will tune in. As I have stated since the beginning of their Road to Independence, BYU is no Notre Dame. On the field, maybe. Off the field, no way.
A Numbers Game
Getting into the BCS, at-large style, is simply a numbers game. There are 10 bids available. 6 of them are automatically taken by 6 BCS conference champions. A 7th is taken by an SEC team. Guaranteed. This leaves 3 other spots in the BCS. A 12-0, or 11-1 if it is Boise State or TCU, MWC Champion would also obtain the automatic bid described earlier. However, there is no guarantee that a 10-2 Boise State/TCU, or an 11-1 Air Force/SDSU would be in the top 16. If the MWC Champion is outside the top 16, BYU would be competing for 3 spots with a second team from the Pac 12, Big XII, or Big Ten. If the MWC Champion is in the top 16, they would be competing for 2 spots with teams from those conferences.
How Does BYU Get There
Going 12-0 would be a huge start. Going 11-1 would leave the door open, if the loss was on the road to an undefeated BCS conference champion (Texas is the best/only possibility on BYU's schedule). I believe a 12-0 BYU team would be difficult, but not impossible, to pass over by the BCS. An 11-1 team would also be worthy of consideration. Based on how BYU finished the year, what players they bring back, and what the coaching staff looks like for next season, there is not a game on the schedule that BYU couldn't win. Prior to the 2010 season, there were two games they could not win: at Florida State and at TCU. As it turned out, there were others too, but looking ahead to the 2011 season there are no unwinnable games. In the coming weeks, I will walk through the 2011 schedule game by game, but for now, it is enough to say: BYU could win any of them. There are also 6 losable games on the schedule too.
What to Expect in Part II
I will evaluate the competition for those 2 or 3 remaining BCS bids, both from non-AQ challengers and from the Pac 12, Big XII, and Big Ten (I see no reason to assume that the ACC or Big East will provide a SECOND challenger for a BCS bid in 2011, given how far away they were from that in 2010. The Big East didn't even have ONE worthy team in the conference this season).
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Thursday Thoughts, 1/13/2011
A lot has happened recently in the world of MWC football since I last wrote. (Former as of yesterday) SDSU Coach Brady Hoke was announced as Michigan's Head Coach. (Former as of yesterday) SDSU Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long took over as the Head Coach at SDSU. Utah DT Sealver Siligi declared for the NFL Draft. Utah landed RB recruit Harvey Langi from Bingham over USC. It is rumored that Norm Chow is to be the next Utah Offensive Coordinator. BYU named Brandon Doman their Offensive Coordinator after Robert Anae "resigned."
And all of that outside of the obvious basketball news of Jimmer's 47 points and 6 assists in the demolition of rival Utah on Tuesday night. In conjunction with that, BYU scored 104 points in a true road game. Against rival Utah. Did I mention this was at the Huntsman Center? If you haven't seen highlights from the game, find some online! People joke about some of the deep threes that Jimmer takes that are "from half court." Well, he actually hit one from half court...but in spite of Jimmer's 47, four other Cougars got into double figures. That is balance, with a Super Star. Much like the 1996 Chicago Bulls...
Hoke at Michigan
Good hire by Michigan. Good move by Hoke. He does not have a lot of pressure. People will allow him to field "competitive" teams for two years before they really expect winning. He will make a lot of money while he tries to build a winner again at Michigan. Michigan lost 6 games this season, all by double-digits. Hoke will keep Michigan closer, and that gives the Wolverines a chance to win some ball games. They have a forgiving schedule next season, with only 3 opponents that finished in this season's top 25 (and two of those are in games 11 and 12). They host SDSU in game 4, that should be interesting...I think he'll win 7 or 8 games next season and go to a better bowl where he has a chance.
Long at SDSU
Well, Long has already been a coach in the MWC, where he had as much success as he thought he could. He resigned at New Mexico, essentially stating he had taken New Mexico to their highest possible point and could help them no more. Now he gets a chance to find the ceiling at SDSU. He stated today that SDSU should be able to win the MWC and play in, and win, BCS games. I do not know that SDSU can reach that level. They may be able to "Hawaii it" and get in when Boise State has a down year and get blown out in the Sugar Bowl by an SEC team...but SDSU is better than it has been. It has better players. It has good coaches (depending on what Hoke leaves and what Long brings in). They are still in my top 2 to win the MWC along with the winner of the Boise State-TCU game. Hoke put in the framework for a champion, but it will be up to Long to keep it going next season.
Utah Loses One, Recruits Another
The announcement by 6'1", 220 pound RB Harvey Langi from Bingham High, that he would attend the University of Utah wrapped up a solid recruiting class from the state of Utah. Most boards have Harvey as one of the top 2 prospects in the state. Utah ended up with 6 of the top 12 according to every reputable site I have checked out. However, as BYU can attest from this season, teams cannot be successful at a high level if they need to rely heavily on freshmen. With the loss of so many guys to graduation, plus now two NFL-caliber players leaving the defense, they may need these guys to step up. Langi may be a great back. But it is a rare freshman that can go from high school to the Pac 10/12. 150 carries in a Utah high school is a lot different than 200 carries against BCS conference competition. But, as my nephew who attended Bingham with Harvey says, he is a full-grown man.
The loss of Siligi is big for Utah's defensive front. They still have capable players on the defensive line, but when a non-BCS team loses an NFL-type player, it hurts their depth. Their talent isn't the issue joining the Pac 12, but their depth is, and it just took a hit, where it was supposed to be strong. His loss hurts the run defense too. He was an experienced and gifted interior linemen who was big enough to demand, and strong enough to occasionally beat, double teams.
Chow in the State of Utah Again?
The rumors are out there that Norm Chow will be the Utes next Offensive Coordinator. He is a definite step up from every other OC that Kyle Whittingham has had in his tenure. Chow has done well at tailoring his approach to the personnel and style of team that he has. It was successful as he ran a pro-style offense at USC. It was successful with the Titans. It was less than successful at UCLA. But he also didn't have good players...he has been in the Pac 10/12 for years, and knows Pac 12 defenses as well as anybody. He is also a great coach of QBs. Wynn could use some coaching: he didn't improve nearly enough from his freshman to sophomore years.
Doman Running the BYU O Again
Robert Anae has stepped down and taken the same job at Arizona (that means the Utes get an easy intra-division win next season, because Anae cannot score against that Ute D). That left the door open for Brandon Doman to step in and run the BYU offense. Personally, I would always prefer to have a former QB calling plays than a former OL. QBs have a little bit more on-the-job training with interpreting what defenses are trying to do. Anae had no creativity. He did well because he had outstanding players, not because he called outstanding plays.
Doman led a fantastic offense in his time at BYU. Doman will understand better how to utilize the skillset of Riley Nelson throughout the game (having been a mobile QB himself), while playing Heaps as the starting QB. I do not think Anae was capable of starting Heaps while occasionally using Nelson. Hence the evolution of the alternating drives BYU employed for a game and a half. Doman may lack the experience calling plays on the sideline, but he does not lack experience calling plays on the field. If he can transfer that knowledge to Heaps, BYU's offense should be quite prolific the next 3 years with him at the helm. BYU should definitely be better off in the long run for this recent change in the coaching staff.
And all of that outside of the obvious basketball news of Jimmer's 47 points and 6 assists in the demolition of rival Utah on Tuesday night. In conjunction with that, BYU scored 104 points in a true road game. Against rival Utah. Did I mention this was at the Huntsman Center? If you haven't seen highlights from the game, find some online! People joke about some of the deep threes that Jimmer takes that are "from half court." Well, he actually hit one from half court...but in spite of Jimmer's 47, four other Cougars got into double figures. That is balance, with a Super Star. Much like the 1996 Chicago Bulls...
Hoke at Michigan
Good hire by Michigan. Good move by Hoke. He does not have a lot of pressure. People will allow him to field "competitive" teams for two years before they really expect winning. He will make a lot of money while he tries to build a winner again at Michigan. Michigan lost 6 games this season, all by double-digits. Hoke will keep Michigan closer, and that gives the Wolverines a chance to win some ball games. They have a forgiving schedule next season, with only 3 opponents that finished in this season's top 25 (and two of those are in games 11 and 12). They host SDSU in game 4, that should be interesting...I think he'll win 7 or 8 games next season and go to a better bowl where he has a chance.
Long at SDSU
Well, Long has already been a coach in the MWC, where he had as much success as he thought he could. He resigned at New Mexico, essentially stating he had taken New Mexico to their highest possible point and could help them no more. Now he gets a chance to find the ceiling at SDSU. He stated today that SDSU should be able to win the MWC and play in, and win, BCS games. I do not know that SDSU can reach that level. They may be able to "Hawaii it" and get in when Boise State has a down year and get blown out in the Sugar Bowl by an SEC team...but SDSU is better than it has been. It has better players. It has good coaches (depending on what Hoke leaves and what Long brings in). They are still in my top 2 to win the MWC along with the winner of the Boise State-TCU game. Hoke put in the framework for a champion, but it will be up to Long to keep it going next season.
Utah Loses One, Recruits Another
The announcement by 6'1", 220 pound RB Harvey Langi from Bingham High, that he would attend the University of Utah wrapped up a solid recruiting class from the state of Utah. Most boards have Harvey as one of the top 2 prospects in the state. Utah ended up with 6 of the top 12 according to every reputable site I have checked out. However, as BYU can attest from this season, teams cannot be successful at a high level if they need to rely heavily on freshmen. With the loss of so many guys to graduation, plus now two NFL-caliber players leaving the defense, they may need these guys to step up. Langi may be a great back. But it is a rare freshman that can go from high school to the Pac 10/12. 150 carries in a Utah high school is a lot different than 200 carries against BCS conference competition. But, as my nephew who attended Bingham with Harvey says, he is a full-grown man.
The loss of Siligi is big for Utah's defensive front. They still have capable players on the defensive line, but when a non-BCS team loses an NFL-type player, it hurts their depth. Their talent isn't the issue joining the Pac 12, but their depth is, and it just took a hit, where it was supposed to be strong. His loss hurts the run defense too. He was an experienced and gifted interior linemen who was big enough to demand, and strong enough to occasionally beat, double teams.
Chow in the State of Utah Again?
The rumors are out there that Norm Chow will be the Utes next Offensive Coordinator. He is a definite step up from every other OC that Kyle Whittingham has had in his tenure. Chow has done well at tailoring his approach to the personnel and style of team that he has. It was successful as he ran a pro-style offense at USC. It was successful with the Titans. It was less than successful at UCLA. But he also didn't have good players...he has been in the Pac 10/12 for years, and knows Pac 12 defenses as well as anybody. He is also a great coach of QBs. Wynn could use some coaching: he didn't improve nearly enough from his freshman to sophomore years.
Doman Running the BYU O Again
Robert Anae has stepped down and taken the same job at Arizona (that means the Utes get an easy intra-division win next season, because Anae cannot score against that Ute D). That left the door open for Brandon Doman to step in and run the BYU offense. Personally, I would always prefer to have a former QB calling plays than a former OL. QBs have a little bit more on-the-job training with interpreting what defenses are trying to do. Anae had no creativity. He did well because he had outstanding players, not because he called outstanding plays.
Doman led a fantastic offense in his time at BYU. Doman will understand better how to utilize the skillset of Riley Nelson throughout the game (having been a mobile QB himself), while playing Heaps as the starting QB. I do not think Anae was capable of starting Heaps while occasionally using Nelson. Hence the evolution of the alternating drives BYU employed for a game and a half. Doman may lack the experience calling plays on the sideline, but he does not lack experience calling plays on the field. If he can transfer that knowledge to Heaps, BYU's offense should be quite prolific the next 3 years with him at the helm. BYU should definitely be better off in the long run for this recent change in the coaching staff.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
MWC Games 1/12/2011
Wyoming at TCU has already started, since I'm late getting this out. It is no surprise to anyone, except New Mexico fans, that TCU has controlled this game.
CSU at New Mexico
The Colorado State Rams have a chance to announce to the conference that they truly have arrived. They go to the Pit to play a New Mexico team fresh off a loss to a bad Wyoming team that announced to the conference that they really were rebuilding. It would, however, take a perfect storm for CSU to pull off the upset. It should be close, with CSU having had over a week off to rest up and prepare. But in the end, I think Dairese Gary carves up the CSU defense just enough to give the Lobos the victory. New Mexico 77, CSU 70.
UNLV at SDSU
The Rebels are looking to exact revenge for a loss in the MWC Tournament Final last season. I think the loss to BYU woke them up a little bit. SDSU is a better defensive team: they are longer and more physical than this year's Rebels. These two teams actually mirror each other quite well. They both tend to "play up" for the big games. Cox Arena will definitely be rocking tonight. The Rebels need something to happen on the road, after dropping a game at home to BYU. I think they have the type of team to go in there and get it done. We may look back at the end of the season and see the loss to BYU as a turning point in their season and the Rebels played on a mission after that. Or we could look back and say that proved that they are a beatable team...I'm still not buying into SDSU fully, so I'm going with the upset: UNLV 69, SDSU 66. Regardless of who wins, this is a game worth watching, listening to, following online, or whatever method you use to keep track of hoops games.
CSU at New Mexico
The Colorado State Rams have a chance to announce to the conference that they truly have arrived. They go to the Pit to play a New Mexico team fresh off a loss to a bad Wyoming team that announced to the conference that they really were rebuilding. It would, however, take a perfect storm for CSU to pull off the upset. It should be close, with CSU having had over a week off to rest up and prepare. But in the end, I think Dairese Gary carves up the CSU defense just enough to give the Lobos the victory. New Mexico 77, CSU 70.
UNLV at SDSU
The Rebels are looking to exact revenge for a loss in the MWC Tournament Final last season. I think the loss to BYU woke them up a little bit. SDSU is a better defensive team: they are longer and more physical than this year's Rebels. These two teams actually mirror each other quite well. They both tend to "play up" for the big games. Cox Arena will definitely be rocking tonight. The Rebels need something to happen on the road, after dropping a game at home to BYU. I think they have the type of team to go in there and get it done. We may look back at the end of the season and see the loss to BYU as a turning point in their season and the Rebels played on a mission after that. Or we could look back and say that proved that they are a beatable team...I'm still not buying into SDSU fully, so I'm going with the upset: UNLV 69, SDSU 66. Regardless of who wins, this is a game worth watching, listening to, following online, or whatever method you use to keep track of hoops games.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
BYU 104, Utah 79
If you told Ute fans they scored 79 points and outrebounded BYU by 15, they would have thought they won. They certainly would not have anticipated a 25-point blowout loss. Jimmer went for 47 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and only 2 turnovers. 4 other Cougars scored in double figures.
Rebounding was obviously a big concern for BYU as the Utes had 3 players pulling down 10 or more rebounds. Those 3 outrebounded BYU by themselves.
I'm happy to be mistaken again about BYU. They shot better from 3-point range than they did from inside the arc. Their defense forced 22 Utah turnovers and held them 25% from three-point range.
These are definitely two programs headed in opposite directions. I have always thought Boylen was the wrong guy at the helm for Utah. He proves it a little more each week.
Rebounding was obviously a big concern for BYU as the Utes had 3 players pulling down 10 or more rebounds. Those 3 outrebounded BYU by themselves.
I'm happy to be mistaken again about BYU. They shot better from 3-point range than they did from inside the arc. Their defense forced 22 Utah turnovers and held them 25% from three-point range.
These are definitely two programs headed in opposite directions. I have always thought Boylen was the wrong guy at the helm for Utah. He proves it a little more each week.
Monday, January 10, 2011
BYU @ Utah, 1/11/2011
Hunstman Center History
You never know what you are going to get from BYU-Utah games up in the Huntsman Center. Most of the time in recent memory, the games have been low-scoring, defensive affairs (or just bad offense on occasion). Occasionally though, they end up like two years ago when the Utes won a 94-88 OT game. Last season's game was 71-51. Three years ago was a 55-52 BYU victory.
Utah Going In
The Utes' early season success has come to a grinding halt. After a 7-3 start, they have lost 6 in a row. During the 6-game losing streak, Utah is averaging just 65 points/game. In the 10 games prior, they only scored less than 65 once, when they scored 64 at Michigan.
Will Clyburn has been playing all season long, averaging nearly 19 point and over 8 rebounds/game. Josh Watkins started hot and has cooled off. The team as a whole has been very streaky. They have had a couple of games shooting over 50% from three-point range. But they have also had several games under 30%. But there have been even more games under 20% than there have been games over 50%: they are 32% on the season.
They just are not getting any consistent performance out of any single player outside of Clyburn. Clyburn will be a tough player for BYU to defend. He looked quick in the few snippets I've seen, but he's also very tall. Too quick for Collinsworth and too big for Emery? Maybe. But if Watkins or Chris Kupets doesn't step up, Clyburn cannot carry the team to victory all by himself, as he has proved the last 6 games.
BYU Going In
The Cougars are coming into the game on a 6-game winning streak, with some atypical wins, including the win at UNLV last Wednesday and their second win in the state of New York this season. They are averaging nearly 85 points/game during that stretch, with two 90-point or more games. Jimmer has gone for over 30 a couple of times. Jackson Emery has hit 6 three-pointers multiple times. Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies have each achieved a double-double. 7 different players have scored in double digits in the 6-game streak. BYU came in at 10/11 in the respective polls this week. They are drawing love from national writers, bracketology forecasters, and college basketball junkies: BYU is coming into this game riding a wave that is almost unmatched in their history.
BYU has shown a distinct inability to play solid post defense without fouling. Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are a solid 4-5 punch offensively, but one of them is inevitably in foul trouble without a reliable backup. Stephen Rogers is too scrawny to play post defense. Logan Magnusson is too short. James Anderson is too uncoordinated. Utah has lacked an ability to get points from their post players consistently, so BYU will have a nice break from that this game (or else make Foster or Washburn look like future lottery picks). Jimmer has had one bad game against Utah, last year at the HC, but has averaged 18 points/game against Utah in his 6-game career against the Utes, compared to the 16 points/game he averages in his career (he didn't score much as a freshman, which brings his average down).
Prediction
I think we'll see a more average scoring performance for both of these teams, not the typical lower-scoring game where 60 points wins, or the wild 90 points required to win type of game. BYU has been more consistent in their shooting for the most part this season. They have played so many games away from home this season that the Huntsman Center will not seem a difficult place to score. I would expect BYU to start a little faster than they have been, with Jimmer taking control of the offense: I wouldn't be surprised to see him with 4 assists or 10 points in the first 7 or 8 minutes of action. Utah is going to have at least one player put together a phenomenal first half to keep them in it: first glance would say Clyburn, but I'd say Kupets off the bench is another candidate (or Washburn if the BYU bigs get in foul trouble).
Utah may have some good basketball ahead of them, and it may turn around Tuesday night, but Ute fans everywhere probably do not like their chances against the Cougars. I like the Utes' chances for the game's middle 20 minutes, but the first 10 and the last 10 will probably belong to BYU. BYU gets another road victory, BYU 77, Utah 65.
You never know what you are going to get from BYU-Utah games up in the Huntsman Center. Most of the time in recent memory, the games have been low-scoring, defensive affairs (or just bad offense on occasion). Occasionally though, they end up like two years ago when the Utes won a 94-88 OT game. Last season's game was 71-51. Three years ago was a 55-52 BYU victory.
Utah Going In
The Utes' early season success has come to a grinding halt. After a 7-3 start, they have lost 6 in a row. During the 6-game losing streak, Utah is averaging just 65 points/game. In the 10 games prior, they only scored less than 65 once, when they scored 64 at Michigan.
Will Clyburn has been playing all season long, averaging nearly 19 point and over 8 rebounds/game. Josh Watkins started hot and has cooled off. The team as a whole has been very streaky. They have had a couple of games shooting over 50% from three-point range. But they have also had several games under 30%. But there have been even more games under 20% than there have been games over 50%: they are 32% on the season.
They just are not getting any consistent performance out of any single player outside of Clyburn. Clyburn will be a tough player for BYU to defend. He looked quick in the few snippets I've seen, but he's also very tall. Too quick for Collinsworth and too big for Emery? Maybe. But if Watkins or Chris Kupets doesn't step up, Clyburn cannot carry the team to victory all by himself, as he has proved the last 6 games.
BYU Going In
The Cougars are coming into the game on a 6-game winning streak, with some atypical wins, including the win at UNLV last Wednesday and their second win in the state of New York this season. They are averaging nearly 85 points/game during that stretch, with two 90-point or more games. Jimmer has gone for over 30 a couple of times. Jackson Emery has hit 6 three-pointers multiple times. Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies have each achieved a double-double. 7 different players have scored in double digits in the 6-game streak. BYU came in at 10/11 in the respective polls this week. They are drawing love from national writers, bracketology forecasters, and college basketball junkies: BYU is coming into this game riding a wave that is almost unmatched in their history.
BYU has shown a distinct inability to play solid post defense without fouling. Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are a solid 4-5 punch offensively, but one of them is inevitably in foul trouble without a reliable backup. Stephen Rogers is too scrawny to play post defense. Logan Magnusson is too short. James Anderson is too uncoordinated. Utah has lacked an ability to get points from their post players consistently, so BYU will have a nice break from that this game (or else make Foster or Washburn look like future lottery picks). Jimmer has had one bad game against Utah, last year at the HC, but has averaged 18 points/game against Utah in his 6-game career against the Utes, compared to the 16 points/game he averages in his career (he didn't score much as a freshman, which brings his average down).
Prediction
I think we'll see a more average scoring performance for both of these teams, not the typical lower-scoring game where 60 points wins, or the wild 90 points required to win type of game. BYU has been more consistent in their shooting for the most part this season. They have played so many games away from home this season that the Huntsman Center will not seem a difficult place to score. I would expect BYU to start a little faster than they have been, with Jimmer taking control of the offense: I wouldn't be surprised to see him with 4 assists or 10 points in the first 7 or 8 minutes of action. Utah is going to have at least one player put together a phenomenal first half to keep them in it: first glance would say Clyburn, but I'd say Kupets off the bench is another candidate (or Washburn if the BYU bigs get in foul trouble).
Utah may have some good basketball ahead of them, and it may turn around Tuesday night, but Ute fans everywhere probably do not like their chances against the Cougars. I like the Utes' chances for the game's middle 20 minutes, but the first 10 and the last 10 will probably belong to BYU. BYU gets another road victory, BYU 77, Utah 65.
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